What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

[zoyathedestroya]

The way I see LeBron and Giannis are the only 2 guys in last 10-ish years who are in a class of their own. Elite offensively and defensively. Put them on your team and you are automatically a contender. KD was close but had more help than LeBron (1st Cleveland stint) and Giannis and didn't accomplish enough. Had to jump on a 70 win team who already had an MVP to get his title.

Curry revolutionized the game with his shooting. You could argue he's in the Giannis LeBron level. The best offensive player in the last 10 years but nowhere near as good as Giannis and LeBron defensively.

After that there's a ton of good players but no one else is tier 1. I don't see Tatum getting to that LeBron / Giannis level but tier 2 is in play. Playmaking is overstated when talking about ceilings. I'll take the stud defender who is a mediocre playmaker (Tatum) over the complete offensive player who sucks at defense (Harden). Having your best offensive player be an apathetic defender generally doesn't result in titles. Curry at least was passable on D.

I know Raptors are rolling (in the regular season) even after losing him, but I would easily put Kawhi Leonard in tier 1. Not as durable as Lebron and Giannis and not as great as a playmaker. But he can elevate his game to a whole other level when the stakes are at their highest.

[Wes-J]

That's not what he said. He said Tatum today is better than Pierce at 21, and he's right.

Difference is, Pierce took like 2-3 more leaps after 21. Does Tatum have 2-3 more gears to step up into? We shall see. I tend to believe so, but not all guys just get better and better after 21 like Pierce did (see Tyreke Evans, OJ Mayo, etc. etc.).

Comparisons like that don't amount to a hill a of beans.

Player development is so much different now than it was 20 yrs ago plus.

Bottomline Tatum is on his way.

Comparisons like what? I'm not saying he's Tyreke Evans. CJ McCollum has been basically the same guy he was since he broke out in his third year. To be clear, I don't expect Tatum has plateaued, but let's not take it as a given he will keep improving every year. Last year alone should be proof positive of that.

I'm just saying you can't say player X at such and such age was better than player Y therefore will be the better player longterm. That's so overblown. Player development is different now, too many variables.

Tatum being better than Pierce at 21 is completely irrelevant. Same could be said for Siakam as we really don't know if peak Tatum will be the better one.

Just to clarify Gomes I know what you meant, I'm just saying in general.

[Feed Your Head]

Warning, this article may excite you too much.

Read on Twitter

Some would say Tatum needs an elite skill, well i think he may have found it. At his size too, this is pretty crazy.

But Tatum’s most significant stride comes in the form of his pull-up three, a skewering harpoon every elite scorer should be able to pull out of their bag whenever they want. Among all players who launch at least four pull-up threes per game, only Damian Lillard is more accurate than Tatum’s 39.2 percent this season. It’s a game-changing stresser that, by itself, raises Boston’s collective ceiling.

Among all players (54, to be exact) who finish at least five possessions every game as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, Tatum is the ninth-most efficient scorer and ranks in the 86th percentile overall. He glides downhill at his own pace, crouching down to put his defender in jail, waiting to punch through a crack. Tatum averages more points per possession in these spots than James Harden, LeBron James, Devin Booker, and Paul George. (Everyone above him is a true point guard, except Luka Doncic and DeMar DeRozan.)

[24istheLAW]

I think regardless of who is better than who, comparing stats across eras from 2020 to 2000 is a frivolous exercise. The game is so much more open offensively than it was then.

In his 2nd year (age 22) Pierce was scoring "only" 19.5 PPG - good for 22nd in the NBA. He was shooting at "only" a .486 eFG% clip, but that was above the league average of .478 (keep in mind league-average is skewed by big men so none of these volume scorers are going to look that great compared to the league average). Jayson is 19th in the league at 22.2 PPG. He has a .513 eFG% which is below the league average of .528.

Not to say JT isn't a stud. Age considered he does seem like he's ahead of Pierce. I just object to an apples-to-apples comparison of their stats when the league is so different.

[Darth Celtic]

When Pierce was 21 he was still at Kansas, so that's not a useful comparison.

the point you are making is correct, but you are incorrect. He was 20 at Kansas, drafted at 20, and turned 21 just before the start of his rookie year on Oct 13 1998 (born Oct 13, 1977).

[cloverleaf]

I think regardless of who is better than who, comparing stats across eras from 2020 to 2000 is a frivolous exercise. The game is so much more open offensively than it was then.

In his 2nd year (age 22) Pierce was scoring "only" 19.5 PPG - good for 22nd in the NBA. He was shooting at "only" a .486 eFG% clip, but that was above the league average of .478 (keep in mind league-average is skewed by big men so none of these volume scorers are going to look that great compared to the league average). Jayson is 19th in the league at 22.2 PPG. He has a .513 eFG% which is below the league average of .528.

Not to say JT isn't a stud. Age considered he does seem like he's ahead of Pierce. I just object to an apples-to-apples comparison of their stats when the league is so different.

Yeah, the league is different and they are both very good players. But JT was more efficient relative to the league in his rookie year than PP was. Really depends on which stats you want to pick.

[Tatumfor2]

Warning, this article may excite you too much.

Read on Twitter

Some would say Tatum needs an elite skill, well i think he may have found it. At his size too, this is pretty crazy.

But Tatum’s most significant stride comes in the form of his pull-up three, a skewering harpoon every elite scorer should be able to pull out of their bag whenever they want. Among all players who launch at least four pull-up threes per game, only Damian Lillard is more accurate than Tatum’s 39.2 percent this season. It’s a game-changing stresser that, by itself, raises Boston’s collective ceiling.

Among all players (54, to be exact) who finish at least five possessions every game as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, Tatum is the ninth-most efficient scorer and ranks in the 86th percentile overall. He glides downhill at his own pace, crouching down to put his defender in jail, waiting to punch through a crack. Tatum averages more points per possession in these spots than James Harden, LeBron James, Devin Booker, and Paul George. (Everyone above him is a true point guard, except Luka Doncic and DeMar DeRozan.)

Clean up! Aisle 0...

[jmr07019]

The way I see LeBron and Giannis are the only 2 guys in last 10-ish years who are in a class of their own. Elite offensively and defensively. Put them on your team and you are automatically a contender. KD was close but had more help than LeBron (1st Cleveland stint) and Giannis and didn't accomplish enough. Had to jump on a 70 win team who already had an MVP to get his title.

Curry revolutionized the game with his shooting. You could argue he's in the Giannis LeBron level. The best offensive player in the last 10 years but nowhere near as good as Giannis and LeBron defensively.

After that there's a ton of good players but no one else is tier 1. I don't see Tatum getting to that LeBron / Giannis level but tier 2 is in play. Playmaking is overstated when talking about ceilings. I'll take the stud defender who is a mediocre playmaker (Tatum) over the complete offensive player who sucks at defense (Harden). Having your best offensive player be an apathetic defender generally doesn't result in titles. Curry at least was passable on D.

I know Raptors are rolling (in the regular season) even after losing him, but I would easily put Kawhi Leonard in tier 1. Not as durable as Lebron and Giannis and not as great as a playmaker. But he can elevate his game to a whole other level when the stakes are at their highest.

Fair

[itrsteve]

I’m sticking by my original prediction in a July 2018 thread

Kobe. Bump this thread in 10 years.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=1723991&hilit=Kobe&start=60#p67359644

[Feed Your Head]

I’m sticking by my original prediction in a July 2018 thread

Kobe. Bump this thread in 10 years.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=1723991&hilit=Kobe&start=60#p67359644

My post from that thread is fun, I've had some lofty expectations for awhile lol. Was on that ECF run high.

A secret government science experiment that made a hybrid of Pierce, Paul George, Joe Johnson, Brandon Roy, Durant, and Dirk.

[K For Three]

The way I see LeBron and Giannis are the only 2 guys in last 10-ish years who are in a class of their own. Elite offensively and defensively. Put them on your team and you are automatically a contender. KD was close but had more help than LeBron (1st Cleveland stint) and Giannis and didn't accomplish enough. Had to jump on a 70 win team who already had an MVP to get his title.

Curry revolutionized the game with his shooting. You could argue he's in the Giannis LeBron level. The best offensive player in the last 10 years but nowhere near as good as Giannis and LeBron defensively.

After that there's a ton of good players but no one else is tier 1. I don't see Tatum getting to that LeBron / Giannis level but tier 2 is in play. Playmaking is overstated when talking about ceilings. I'll take the stud defender who is a mediocre playmaker (Tatum) over the complete offensive player who sucks at defense (Harden). Having your best offensive player be an apathetic defender generally doesn't result in titles. Curry at least was passable on D.

I know Raptors are rolling (in the regular season) even after losing him, but I would easily put Kawhi Leonard in tier 1. Not as durable as Lebron and Giannis and not as great as a playmaker. But he can elevate his game to a whole other level when the stakes are at their highest.

For the postseason I would easily take Kawhi as the #1 most feared player and not even think twice about it.

[The_Ghost_of_JB]

From what I've seen it's definitely Rudy Gay.

[Jaqua92]

The comparison to Pierce I would make is this: Tatum is already a lot better than Pierce was at age 21. Nobody loved Pierce as a player early in his career more than me, so I don’t say this lightly. I think of peak Paul Pierce as his floor and he has already nearly reached that stage.

Tatum isn't even close to peak Pierce.

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That's not what he said. He said Tatum today is better than Pierce at 21, and he's right.

Difference is, Pierce took like 2-3 more leaps after 21. Does Tatum have 2-3 more gears to step up into? We shall see. I tend to believe so, but not all guys just get better and better after 21 like Pierce did (see Tyreke Evans, OJ Mayo, etc. etc.).

"I think of peak Paul Pierce as his floor and he is already nearly there"

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[exculpatory]

If JT wants to stay in the MVP top 10 list, he has to have a GAME here. Two in a row like the Rockets game and he'll be off the list for good.

With regard to those who want to name him the next King of Mother **** England, JT is clearly ascending in an awesome way to a very special Paul Pierce-like & PG13-like place, but before we give him the **** throne, I for one need to see “CONSISTENTLY brings it to the max” in big time games vs the best ballers & teams in the NBA!

[denmuscles]

I like Tatum but I think we all are overrating him a little bit. Sure he is having a solid season so far, putting great numbers etc but to call him PG or PP is premature and early. PP was a special player, one of the most clutch players in NBA history. Great finisher. Durable. Tatum needs to show a lot more in order to be in the same conversation as Paul Pierce. Tatum, Doncic, Trae and rest of these top ballers is will not impress me until they take over the playoffs, make some clutch crazy shots for a few playoffs before we label them Top 5 top 10 players.

If Tatum continues this play and is consistent and has a monster playoffs then we can put him in the convo of top 10-15 player.

[Parliament10]

Tatum isn't even close to peak Pierce.

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That's not what he said. He said Tatum today is better than Pierce at 21, and he's right.

Difference is, Pierce took like 2-3 more leaps after 21. Does Tatum have 2-3 more gears to step up into? We shall see. I tend to believe so, but not all guys just get better and better after 21 like Pierce did (see Tyreke Evans, OJ Mayo, etc. etc.).

"I think of peak Paul Pierce as his floor and he is already nearly there"

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

I see Tatum as definitely nearing Paul Pierce level.
If he keeps progressing, then yeah, he'll end up better than Pierce.

[exculpatory]

That's not what he said. He said Tatum today is better than Pierce at 21, and he's right.

Difference is, Pierce took like 2-3 more leaps after 21. Does Tatum have 2-3 more gears to step up into? We shall see. I tend to believe so, but not all guys just get better and better after 21 like Pierce did (see Tyreke Evans, OJ Mayo, etc. etc.).

"I think of peak Paul Pierce as his floor and he is already nearly there"

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

I see Tatum as definitely nearing Paul Pierce level.
If he keeps progressing, then yeah, he'll end up better than Pierce.

He is progressing rapidly but but but but ..as Denmuscles just eloquently posted above (edited by yours truly)..

“Sure he is having a solid season so far, putting up great numbers etc, but to call him PG or PP is EXTREMELY premature and early.
PP was a VERY VERY special player, one of the most clutch players in NBA history.
Great finisher.
Durable.
Tatum needs to show a HELLUVA lot more in order to be in the same **** conversation as Paul **** Pierce.
Tatum will have to CONSISTENTLY & RELIABLY take over in MULTIPLE playoffs & make MANY MEGA clutch shots (AND ASSISTS) during MULTIPLE playoff games before I/we label him a Top 5-10 player.”

And I think & hope that he will, & will root hard for it!

[Gomes3PC]

People saying he will be better than PP realize that means people expect him to be a slam dunk HOFer, right?

[Wes-J]

Language like "better than Pierce" makes me wonder if some of you had pubes during those glory years.

[MagicBagley18]

From what I've seen it's definitely Rudy Gay.

Then he’s shattered the ceiling then bc Rudy gay never made an all star game in his career let alone by 21