2025 NBA Draft Thread, part 1 – Capture the Flagg

[phincsfan]

Since Mazzulla took over in 22' a position that Stevens dealt with through 1 year deals was slashing SF's (Jackson, Oshae, Stevens, Craig). JT and JB were the horses at the F position. He drafted Walsh maybe with the hope that the upside was there. IMO, that didn't pan out. I wouldn't be surprised if his TO isn't picked up or it is and he gets traded. Walsh and Tillman's contracts put them on the hook for just under 5mil, and for two guys that barely played that's a pretty penny.

With that said, maybe Stevens takes a shot at the SF position again this draft. But is a project like Walsh the way to go? He was truly a raw project and for this rosters window, I just don't see them doing that again. SF is a tough position to hit on in the draft because IMO it's a spotlight position. High expectations because your looked at to drive, defend, shoot, ball handle. Not many impact SF's are found in the 20's. Jalen Johnson, Kuzma, Keldon Johnson, OG were picked in the 20's over the last bunch of years.

IMO, Karaban is a redundancy with Hauser already established and signed. And I don't see much upside to his athleticism.

Does Clifford fall to 28? I doubt it but can he fall close enough where a trade can be made if he's a target?

Does a Liam McNeeley fall to a spot where they can trade up? I really doubt it. IMO, even though he's a 19 year old freshman, he's polished. He just needs to get stronger and get acclimated to the NBA speed.

Carter Bryant IMO is a project.

Noah Penda worked out for them last year but is he still a project? I say yes especially since he played overseas.

Will Riley IMO is a project.

Is it time to start looking at the F position as an area to invest in for the long term again through the draft?

I wanted a young PG in the draft like Philon or Fland, but I think Stevens will stick it out with JD since he drafted him and stayed in Maine for 3 years. I'm not thrilled, but maybe they move JD up next season and still draft a Philon, Fland or Proctor and develop them in Maine. I'd be content with that.

[redslastlaugh]

I've doubled back around to look at Kam Jones, you have him at 22 on your board. There's a lot to like but man, the FT shooting is such a red flag. How can a guy who has shot 41% from 3pt range in his best college season, also shoot 61%, 66%, 71% and 65% from the line over his four college seasons. And his senior year in conference he shot 58% from the line. A shooting guard, 23 yrs old, a mainly offensive player who is a candidate for a first round selection shoots 58% on free throws in conference, What a red flag. Makes me think it's a mental issue and I start thinking of Markelle Fultz or guards who defenses leave open and then the guard gets the yips and too scared to shoot. Man .....

I want to get there on Kam Jones, but I dunno if Im getting there

Here's my updated personal big board.

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

Some good options in the 20-33 range here for the Celtics to potentially target..

In particular:
Markovic
Wolf
Broome
Haugh
Raynaud
Lendeborg
Fleming

Not necessarily in that order..but it'll be interesting to see which of these names BOS brings in for a pre-draft workout. Pre-draft workouts will probably start up soon..

[Dogen]

Interesting trade-up, similar to some ideas on here. At 26:55, a trade with Washington, #28 and #32 for #19. Celtics pick Danny Wolf.

Watch on YouTube

[djFan71]

Interesting trade-up, similar to some ideas on here. At 26:55, a trade with Washington, #28 and #32 for #19. Celtics pick Danny Wolf.

Watch on YouTube

Ahhh! He was so close to my dream then passed on Fleming for Wolf. Doh!

[phincsfan]

Interesting trade-up, similar to some ideas on here. At 26:55, a trade with Washington, #28 and #32 for #19. Celtics pick Danny Wolf.

Watch on YouTube

That’s a big move for 28 and 32. Also a big move contract wise. It’s a million dollar increase from 28.

[brackdan70]

Interesting trade-up, similar to some ideas on here. At 26:55, a trade with Washington, #28 and #32 for #19. Celtics pick Danny Wolf.

Watch on YouTube

That’s a big move for 28 and 32. Also a big move contract wise. It’s a million dollar increase from 28.

Probably 28, 32 and 2026 pick to move up that far? 28 and 32 probably can get to 24 or maybe 23.

[Dogen]

Interesting trade-up, similar to some ideas on here. At 26:55, a trade with Washington, #28 and #32 for #19. Celtics pick Danny Wolf.

Watch on YouTube

Ahhh! He was so close to my dream then passed on Fleming for Wolf. Doh!

Yeah, Fleming may well be gone before Wolf anyway. The rationale in the video is basically, like, "and so Boston gets their white, shooting center."

It's too early to tell where some of these guys will go. I think Wolf just declared. The basic premise of trying to move up enough spots to ensure getting one of the guys on Brad's board is probably worth it, unless they want to trade one pick out into a future draft. If the team wants to go into next year with both Davison and Walsh, one pick this year is enough, and most likely a big this year.

Wolf is growing on me. He looks a bit doughy, but actually quite quick, mobile and quick on his feet. He's like a dancer with that spin move. I've seen his wingspan listed at 7'4", and although I don't believe that is accurate, it certainly looks plus.

A poor man's Jokic would be just fine for Wolf. Maybe a better comparison is a big man Pritchard: someone that you don't think will pan out as a starter for various reasons yet has a skill package where you can't keep him off the floor. A sixth man, but in the Walton mode.

[phincsfan]

Been trying to digest the 2023 NBA draft because Stevens had a similar situation as far as draft slots. The KP trade on the 22nd gave Stevens the 25th pick. After looking at the players the C's worked out prior to the 23' draft, only two players have become Boston connected, Walsh and Peterson.

He had the 31st pick for a quick second and wheeled and dealed it to eventually land Walsh. Didn't settle for BPA. I'm good with that, except Walsh hasn't panned out so far.

They did workout 2 first round talents, but they were drafted in the 1st round of the 24' draft (Dillon Jones -26th and Terrence Shannon Jr 27th). Both were SF/SG prospects. I find that interesting because Walsh and Peterson are also SF prospects. Other notable names from that draft that I recognized were Shead, Jackson-Davis and Freeman. Jackson-Davis went in 23 while Shead and Freeman went in 24. Two bigmen and a PG.

The 25th pick in 23' was Marcus Sasser, who's had a mehhh career so far. The C's worked out zero players who were selected 25th or better. Seems like Stevens had more interest in players who would be 24' draftees. I'm good with that because he didn't go with the BPA at 25. Instead he went full DA wheeling and dealing to get into a position draft Walsh (who they worked out) and pick up future assets. At least he stuck to his big board and his big board wasn't terrible and his workouts were also pretty telling because 2 of them were 1st round selections. Maybe not so impressive early careers, but at least he recognized 1st round talent.

To piggy back on that, the C's didn't work out Shannon in 24'

*** Did Stevens try to make a trade to move up for Jones? They worked him out for a second time in 24'. Or was Rico there man all along? ***

The 23' draft was terrible for practically all picks outside of the lottery.

Personally, I want that PG who can create for themselves like Fland or Philon (he does seem to like Bama guards though, JD and he once worked out Keon Ellis). From what I've seen, Stevens likes his Shelvin Mack bulldog type of PG.

I'll be very interested to see who they work out this year. Noah Penda and Karaban are the only ranked player they worked out last year who will be in this draft. Two more wing prospects. Toppin went back to school. Sandfort should be a UDFA. Stevens seems to have been paying attention to wing prospects who may land around their draft slots.

Or maybe the KP trade drama took all the wind out the sails for the 23' draft

[playa-hater]

Interesting trade-up, similar to some ideas on here. At 26:55, a trade with Washington, #28 and #32 for #19. Celtics pick Danny Wolf.

Watch on YouTube

Ahhh! He was so close to my dream then passed on Fleming for Wolf. Doh!

Yeah, Fleming may well be gone before Wolf anyway. The rationale in the video is basically, like, "and so Boston gets their white, shooting center."

It's too early to tell where some of these guys will go. I think Wolf just declared. The basic premise of trying to move up enough spots to ensure getting one of the guys on Brad's board is probably worth it, unless they want to trade one pick out into a future draft. If the team wants to go into next year with both Davison and Walsh, one pick this year is enough, and most likely a big this year.

Wolf is growing on me. He looks a bit doughy, but actually quite quick, mobile and quick on his feet. He's like a dancer with that spin move. I've seen his wingspan listed at 7'4", and although I don't believe that is accurate, it certainly looks plus.

A poor man's Jokic would be just fine for Wolf. Maybe a better comparison is a big man Pritchard: someone that you don't think will pan out as a starter for various reasons yet has a skill package where you can't keep him off the floor. A sixth man, but in the Walton mode.

I already said I would want Wolf. But his Height and Length do concern me. Many college players get listed too Big. I just want his height/measurements to be in the ballpark of his listed height. He'd be my top choice a well. Fleming I just think won't be within reach.

[Hal14]

I've doubled back around to look at Kam Jones, you have him at 22 on your board. There's a lot to like but man, the FT shooting is such a red flag. How can a guy who has shot 41% from 3pt range in his best college season, also shoot 61%, 66%, 71% and 65% from the line over his four college seasons. And his senior year in conference he shot 58% from the line. A shooting guard, 23 yrs old, a mainly offensive player who is a candidate for a first round selection shoots 58% on free throws in conference, What a red flag. Makes me think it's a mental issue and I start thinking of Markelle Fultz or guards who defenses leave open and then the guard gets the yips and too scared to shoot. Man .....

I want to get there on Kam Jones, but I dunno if Im getting there

It's kind of a red flag I suppose..but FT% is not the be all, end all for shooting projection. Horford and Jaylen shot under 70% from FT line in college. Whereas Killian Hayes and Jaden Springer shot over 80% from the FT line before the NBA. There's many other examples like these.

Does FT% matter when projecting shooting? Yes. Should we base a huge amount of our evaluation of a prospect on it? No. There's so many different things to factor in. Dozens of different data points, dozens of games where we can break down the film, many other things to factor in such as basketball IQ, age, size, etc. that fixating too much on one statistical category is not wise imo.

In terms of 3PA/100 possessions, Kam was 10 or higher in all 4 of his college seasons so I certainly not worry about him being afraid to shoot.

His 2pt FG% is also very high. 58.6% this season, 59.6% the season before that, 64.3% the year before that. His FG% at the rim has been very high as well so he does have good touch.

Nothing looks mechanically wrong with Jones' shot either..I'd say the low FT% but good shooting indicators in many other areas is probably a statistical anomaly. Or it just means that Jones will be a good shooter in the league, rather than an elite one.

If not for injuries, Fultz may have been a perennial all-star, for all we know.

Also, I think I posted this awhile ago but a stat i manually calculate for a lot of prospects is Unassisted FG at Rim / 40 Mins, because it's an indicator for a player's ability to handle the ball and go and get a bucket at the rim, rather than relying too much on a jump shot heavy shot diet. Out of the 50+ prospects I've looked this stat up for (with most of them being prospects from previous drafts like Jaylen, Tatum, SGA, etc. dating back to 2010) Kam Jones was higher in this stat this season than basically every prospect besides Zion Williamson. To be fair, most of prospects I looked this up for were freshmen, and some of the them would have probably ended up posting a higher number than Jones if they stayed in school all 4 years..but still, Jones being as high as he is in this metric shows he is a *beast* at getting downhill, using skill, craft, touch and a variety of moves like fakes up and unders, spins, etc. to create looks near the rim and convert them.

Plus he has an extremely high assist % this season of 38. So his playmaking ability, vision, feel and unselfishness is very high. You watch him on film and he just has a knack for making the right basketball play - knows when to shoot, when to drive, when to pass.

His defense isn't bad. He's an underrated defender. I've seen some really impressive blocks by him this season.

But most of the sell with him is on offense. I'm not expecting a star (if I did, I'd rank him in the top 10 or maybe even top 5) but I think he'll be a good role player..a good secondary ball handler, secondary creator, secondary playmaker who can really dribble/pass/shoot well..having him out there as a 4th/5th option, man he could really be a weapon and could end up being a good 3rd option - it wouldn't shock me. I look at how good offensively guys like Austin Reaves, Derrick White, Andrew Nembhard, etc.(all were 22 or 23 when drafted, none are over 6'5") have become and I wouldn't put it past Jones to eventually be that level of offensive weapon.

There is some similarities between Jones and Jalen Brunson in terms of the way they play. Brunson was just under 22 when he was drafted so about a year and a half younger than Jones. But Jones is a couple inches taller which helps. Not saying he'll be as good as Brunson, but a worse (yet taller) version is not out of the question.

Btw, after watching some more film on Jones (and other prospects) I actually have Jones 15th on my board now..not sure how much i love the fit for him on Boston, though..a better fit for Jones would be a team with less talent/depth in the back court..and a team that had more of a need for on ball creation, and I would prefer we went for a PF/C type..

[djFan71]

Thinking about Will Riley. What super-skinny wings have made it?

KD, but he's 1) KD, 2) taller. Brandon Ingram. T-Mac maybe? SGA is actually pretty skinny.
D-minded ones like Tayshaun, Stacey Augman, Derrick Jones Jr.

He's just tough to gauge. Feels like he could go back to school and be a lottery pick next year, but also get to the league and not be able to make an impact. I have similar thoughts on Byrd. Both are super-tempting for different reasons, though.

[playa-hater]

Thinking about Will Riley. What super-skinny wings have made it?

KD, but he's 1) KD, 2) taller. Brandon Ingram. T-Mac maybe? SGA is actually pretty skinny.
D-minded ones like Tayshaun, Stacey Augman, Derrick Jones Jr.

He's just tough to gauge. Feels like he could go back to school and be a lottery pick next year, but also get to the league and not be able to make an impact. I have similar thoughts on Byrd. Both are super-tempting for different reasons, though.

Haven't seen him at all, but it almost sounds like mcdaniels from the minnesota timberwolves. Is that a fair comparison?

[djFan71]

lol, I asked chatgpt. Picked some of the same players as comps.

Will Riley and Miles Byrd both definitely fit that lanky wing mold, and you’re wondering if their frames are too slight to translate to the NBA.

Let’s break it down a bit with their comps and what history tells us about similar builds:

Will Riley
Height: 6'8"

Weight: ~180 lbs (reported)

Style: Fluid scorer, smooth handle, perimeter-heavy game.

Frame: Very wiry, long arms, narrow shoulders—not a naturally bulky dude.

Concerns:

He’ll need to add strength to finish through contact, especially against NBA wings who are strong and quick.

Could struggle on defense early vs physical 3s/4s.

Upside:

Think Brandon Ingram or a young T-Mac. If he can add 15–20 lbs over a couple of years while keeping fluidity, he could thrive.

The league favors wings who can shoot and create, and he’s got tools.

Verdict: Not too skinny to make it, but will need strength gains to handle the physicality.

Miles Byrd
Height: 6'7"

Weight: ~180 lbs

Style: Point-forward vibes. Smooth, high IQ, flashes of playmaking.

Frame: Skinny and kind of slinky, but not weak. Has some wiry strength.

Concerns:

Can he absorb contact at the rim? Will he hold his own defensively against quicker or more physical wings?

Upside:

His game feels like a blend of Nic Batum and early Josh Giddey—versatile, patient, unselfish.

If he can improve his shooting and physicality, he can carve out a role.

Verdict: Borderline physically, but if his feel and IQ translate, the frame won’t hold him back.

NBA Trend Watch
The modern NBA loves skinny wings if they can shoot, defend, or make smart reads.

The key is functional strength and core balance, not necessarily bulk. KD never bulked up. Even PG, Shai, and Ingram still look wiry.

Strength programs and sports science have evolved—guys like Riley and Byrd will have access to the best possible development.

TL;DR:
Neither Riley nor Byrd is too skinny to be effective, but their success depends on:

How well they handle contact (mentally + physically).

Whether their skillsets outpace their physical gaps.

How much strength they can add without losing agility.

You scouting them for a team or just following their progress as a fan?

[Hal14]

Thinking about Will Riley. What super-skinny wings have made it?

KD, but he's 1) KD, 2) taller. Brandon Ingram. T-Mac maybe? SGA is actually pretty skinny.
D-minded ones like Tayshaun, Stacey Augman, Derrick Jones Jr.

He's just tough to gauge. Feels like he could go back to school and be a lottery pick next year, but also get to the league and not be able to make an impact. I have similar thoughts on Byrd. Both are super-tempting for different reasons, though.

Jaden Mcdaniels is also skinny. Mikal Bridges was pretty skinny earlier in his career. Hauser (especially earlier in his career) was pretty skinny - same for Kevin Huerter.

Riley looks roughly about as skinny as Coulibaly did when he was drafted..

In this class, Liam McNeeley and Ace Bailey (on film) look roughly about as skinny as Riley does - same for Tre Johnson..

Idk, I don't think Riley looks *that* skinny. On film he looks roughly about as skinny as Tatum was when he was at Duke.

Looking up the numbers, Tatum was 204 lbs at Duke. Illinois lists Riley at 195. They're about the same height.

The 195 lbs for Riley might be a little generous though, as he weighed in at just 172 lbs at the Nike Hoop Summit last spring. However, on film it does look like he's added a bit of weight since the hoop summit - from his time at Illinois.

He is kind of skinny, though but that's baked into his evaluation - at least for me, and I still have him ranked in like the 14-21 range. I don't dock him too much for that, partly because adding weight/strength is one of the easiest, most common things for players to improve upon after getting draft - especially players who were only 18/19 yrs old when drafted..they're still so young and early on in their process of developing their body and its strength..

[djFan71]

Thinking about Will Riley. What super-skinny wings have made it?

KD, but he's 1) KD, 2) taller. Brandon Ingram. T-Mac maybe? SGA is actually pretty skinny.
D-minded ones like Tayshaun, Stacey Augman, Derrick Jones Jr.

He's just tough to gauge. Feels like he could go back to school and be a lottery pick next year, but also get to the league and not be able to make an impact. I have similar thoughts on Byrd. Both are super-tempting for different reasons, though.

Jaden Mcdaniels is also skinny. Mikal Bridges was pretty skinny earlier in his career. Hauser (especially earlier in his career) was pretty skinny - same for Kevin Huerter.

Riley looks roughly about as skinny as Coulibaly did when he was drafted..

In this class, Liam McNeeley and Ace Bailey (on film) look roughly about as skinny as Riley does - same for Tre Johnson..

Idk, I don't think Riley looks *that* skinny. On film he looks roughly about as skinny as Tatum was when he was at Duke.

Looking up the numbers, Tatum was 204 lbs at Duke. Illinois lists Riley at 195. They're about the same height.

The 195 lbs for Riley might be a little generous though, as he weighed in at just 172 lbs at the Nike Hoop Summit last spring. However, on film it does look like he's added a bit of weight since the hoop summit - from his time at Illinois.

He is kind of skinny, though but that's baked into his evaluation - at least for me, and I still have him ranked in like the 14-21 range. I don't dock him too much for that, partly because adding weight/strength is one of the easiest, most common things for players to improve upon after getting draft - especially players who were only 18/19 yrs old when drafted..they're still so young and early on in their process of developing their body and its strength..

McDaniels is a good one. I think Riley is still on the skinniest side of the rest of the guys you listed, though. I do agree they're young and will bulk up, but some never do (Poku, others). Definitely have to bake it in. And what effect that will have on their finishing, etc. I have him pretty high on my list, but do think he's a G-league season or 2 away from contributing based on our roster.

I think my personal Cs-only big board is something like this right now:

Rasheer Fleming
Asa Newell
Carter Bryant
Yaxel Lendeborg
Noah Penda
Will Riley
Walter Clayton Jr
Nique Clifford
Adou Thiero
Miles Byrd
Darrion Williams
Sion James

[threrf23]

If Will Riley could produce at a high level despite his skinny frame, I would view that as a plus; but his stock numbers were pedestrian last year, and 6.5 rebounds per 40 is unimpressive for a 6'8 guy.

If he struggles to assert himself at the college level, he is not going to contribute right away at the NBA level. Sort of like Jordan Walsh, he has potential down the line, the question is whether his ceiling is high enough to warrant the wait.

Myles Byrd is more intriguing to me based on his motor and his production on the defensive end, as well as his overall trajectory. I'm not sure what his upside is, but I like what I read about him.

[threrf23]

Looking at the numbers, Fleming's FTr (driving, rim pressure indicator) is very low for a guy of that size. His unassisted FG at rim / 40 mins (indicator for driving and finishing at rim) was also very low. His usage % was also pretty low (indicator for handing the ball, putting it on the deck) and basically all of his 3PM were assisted.

I've seen a couple of plays here and there where he looked ok driving to the basket. But for the most part, I think he's pretty limited in that area. He's moreso just a catch and shoot guy on offense. Can crash the offensive boards a bit, set screens, roll to the basket, finish out of dunker's spot and is also good at running the floor in transition and beating opposing bigs down the floor for easy fast break layups.

I'm not sure this matters much? You are drafting him for his defense and maybe also his shooting. You want him to be a catch and shoot guy because that's what his skillset is well suited for.

Having said that, I think it's easy for an NBA caliber big to look good in the NCAA, and I'm not sure Fleming lives up to his hype. Lavoy Allen comes to mind as a vaguely similar player who put up vaguely similar numbers at the same ages in the same conference.

[playa-hater]

Since mentioned here a few times I guess yaxel should be my next look at.

[threrf23]

I've doubled back around to look at Kam Jones, you have him at 22 on your board. There's a lot to like but man, the FT shooting is such a red flag. How can a guy who has shot 41% from 3pt range in his best college season, also shoot 61%, 66%, 71% and 65% from the line over his four college seasons. And his senior year in conference he shot 58% from the line. A shooting guard, 23 yrs old, a mainly offensive player who is a candidate for a first round selection shoots 58% on free throws in conference, What a red flag. Makes me think it's a mental issue and I start thinking of Markelle Fultz or guards who defenses leave open and then the guard gets the yips and too scared to shoot. Man .....

Jason Richardson shot 65% from the line in two years at Michgan State. Reggie Miller shot 64%, albeit as a freshman. Joe Harris shot 64%, as a senior.

And I mean, Jaylen shot around 67% his first few years in the NBA, Jason Richardson 71% over the course of his career. Nick Anderson shot 66% from the line over the course of his career, I'd find more examples with an active stathead account. These guys are all taller than Kam...

It probably indicates something, but I'm not sure I would call it a red flag. What sticks out to me about Kam, personally, is that his percentages suffered during his senior year, as his assists more than doubled (I assume he was moved to the point). That reminds a bit of Avery Bradley, who struggled offensively when asked to play the point. Avery Bradley, shot 55% from the FT line in his one year of college...

That is maybe coincidence tho, AB went on to be a pretty good FT shooter.

[redslastlaugh]

Yea, I'm not sure red flag is the right word. And these are some good counterexamples (maybe not Nick Anderson who definitely developed the yips, lol) but, as you said, some of the samples are much smaller than Kam Jones who is a four year player.
But ...

If you look at the offensive tilted guards in recent history (2017-21) who were not drafted in the top 10 and greatly overperformed their draft slot, you're looking at:

Donovan Mitchell - 80%
Derrick White - 81%
Josh Hart - 74%
Monte Morris - 80%
SGA - 81%
Jalen Brunson - 80%
Tyler Herro - 93%
Nick Alexander-Walker - 77%
Haliburton - 82%
Maxey - 83%
Quickley - 92%
Pritchard - 82%
Quentin Grimes - 78%
Miles McBrider - 81%

I picked these years because we have several years results to see what they've turned into at NBA level. And really in the sample only Bruce Brown (63%) and deAnthony Melton (70%) (who are more defensively titled guards so I didn't include then) are under the Josh Hart line (74%) drafted in those yrs (17-21) and have been remotely impactful.

Kam Jones 64.8% from the stripe, for a player you are hoping for offense from, it is concerning imo

I've doubled back around to look at Kam Jones, you have him at 22 on your board. There's a lot to like but man, the FT shooting is such a red flag.

Jason Richardson shot 65% from the line in two years at Michgan State. Reggie Miller shot 64%, albeit as a freshman. Joe Harris shot 64%, as a senior.

And I mean, Jaylen shot around 67% his first few years in the NBA, Jason Richardson 71% over the course of his career. Nick Anderson shot 66% from the line over the course of his career, I'd find more examples with an active stathead account. These guys are all taller than Kam...

It probably indicates something, but I'm not sure I would call it a red flag. What sticks out to me about Kam, personally, is that his percentages suffered during his senior year, as his assists more than doubled (I assume he was moved to the point). That reminds a bit of Avery Bradley, who struggled offensively when asked to play the point. Avery Bradley, shot 55% from the FT line in his one year of college...

That is maybe coincidence tho, AB went on to be a pretty good FT shooter.