2020 NBA Draft Thread, Part 2 -- (8PM, Wed, Nov. 18, ESPN)

[captain green]

u4

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Not sure how much truth to this.

There is truth it but no one is biting. Expect rj a stash and trade out and yurtseven.

Yurtseven in the first round? That would be disgustingly bad.

47th was implied by being the 4th in order of typed

[winsomme2]

This is silly, Okongwu is a MUCH better athlete then Williams, he is a better shooter, the only thing they have in common is they both block shots.

Is okongwu better than Achiuwa?

That is not at all clear.

Yes, he is over a year younger, a much better shot blocker and a better shooter, I think every major draft expert ranks Okungwu as a higher rated player. Again that doesn't mean that Precious won't be a better pro but Okongwu is rated better by every major draft ranking.

Well yeah he's projected higher. Probably 6-10 vs 12-16. But is the difference 2 extra First round picks worth.

The experts are also telling us that this draft is not very heavy with talent at the top and is quite a bit heavy with capable prospects lateon.

So the main point being made here is that Kong/Hali are not THAT much better prospects and could even reasonably end up being worse.

Personally I like Hali more if we end up moving up but would prefer to stand pat and get the value of the later picks with the added benefit of also getting the better player at 14.

[Spin Move]

nobody thinks Ainge is a terrible drafter more than me, but all of these rumors to me, actually make me think the opposite is true, that Ainge, like me, knows there's a good possibility of picking 3 good players in the first if things break right. I expect he'll blow it. But what if he doesn't? What if he ends up getting Woodard, Bey and Reed and Quickley in the 2nd? That's the kind of draft that would shut me up for years. That type of draft helps give Kemba rest, replaces Hayward and Theis when they leave and turns our bench from a negative to a major positive. With a better bench I think we would have made the Finals. Danny failed last year but maybe he'll surprise and hit it out of the park.

It's actually gonna be hard to screw up 26 and 30. There are so many good prospects available in that range.

Here are the past outcomes for picks in each spot for caparison sake lets look at 8 as well a position trading the three picks might bring.

Pick Star Solid RoleP DeepB Bust DNP
8 35% 15% 15% 35% 0 0
14 25% 20% 25% 10% 20% 0
26 5% 5% 25% 60% 5% 0
30 5% 10% 25% 25% 15% 20%


So looking at 26 and 30 more then 85% the time your not getting a starting level player, and 60% of the time your not getting anythign better then a deep bench player. Heck by 30 your getting a 35% chance the guy is a total bust of never plays https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Now it is fair to argue that the increase from 14 to 8 is not worth 26 and 30, but 26 and 30 on their own are not likley to be that valuble, most players drafted in those spots don't have a real impact. 10-15 percent of the time you get someone good but most of the time you dont at those spots.

[winsomme2]

nobody thinks Ainge is a terrible drafter more than me, but all of these rumors to me, actually make me think the opposite is true, that Ainge, like me, knows there's a good possibility of picking 3 good players in the first if things break right. I expect he'll blow it. But what if he doesn't? What if he ends up getting Woodard, Bey and Reed and Quickley in the 2nd? That's the kind of draft that would shut me up for years. That type of draft helps give Kemba rest, replaces Hayward and Theis when they leave and turns our bench from a negative to a major positive. With a better bench I think we would have made the Finals. Danny failed last year but maybe he'll surprise and hit it out of the park.

It's actually gonna be hard to screw up 26 and 30. There are so many good prospects available in that range.

Here are the past outcomes for picks in each spot for caparison sake lets look at 8 as well a position trading the three picks might bring.

Pick Star Solid RoleP DeepB Bust DNP
8 35% 15% 15% 35% 0 0
14 25% 20% 25% 10% 20% 0
26 5% 5% 25% 60% 5% 0
30 5% 10% 25% 25% 15% 20%


So looking at 26 and 30 more then 85% the time your not getting a starting level player, and 60% of the time your not getting anythign better then a deep bench player. Heck by 30 your getting a 35% chance the guy is a total bust of never plays https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Now it is fair to argue that the increase from 14 to 8 is not worth 26 and 30, but 26 and 30 on their own are not likley to be that valuble, most players drafted in those spots don't have a real impact. 10-15 percent of the time you get someone good but most of the time you dont at those spots.

Sure. Historically speaking 26 and 30 are not that valuable of picks, but the point being made here by me and others is that THIS year there is a ton of value late first round AND the TOP of the draft is relatively weak. So this is a bad year to trade a bunch of picks to move up.

[djFan71]

Anybody coming around to my trade down theory yet??????

14 for 25 & OKC's best 2021 non-lotto first (they have 3 possibles).

Ignore the non-star PGs from 14-early 20s range. Pick 3 guys in that wing/swing group at 25, 26, 30. Extra pick (and pick watch thread) for next year.

Anyone? Nobody??? Just me? Fine.

[JHTruth]

:lol: u4

There is truth it but no one is biting. Expect rj a stash and trade out and yurtseven.

Yurtseven in the first round? That would be disgustingly bad.

47th was implied by being the 4th in order of typed

But it will be so "easy" to move up in this draft.

Once workouts start going the teams start to fall in love with guys.

It's RJ Hampton and then trade out..

[Spin Move]

:lol: u4

Yurtseven in the first round? That would be disgustingly bad.

47th was implied by being the 4th in order of typed

But it will be so "easy" to move up in this draft.

Once workouts start going the teams start to fall in love with guys.

It's RJ Hampton and then trade out..

Cole Anthony was the higher rated high school player, he is more the "Ainge" pick then Hampton, heck he was even injured last year.

[playa-hater]

This is silly, Okongwu is a MUCH better athlete then Williams, he is a better shooter, the only thing they have in common is they both block shots.

Is okongwu better than Achiuwa?

That is not at all clear.

Yes, he is over a year younger, a much better shot blocker and a better shooter, I think every major draft expert ranks Okungwu as a higher rated player. Again that doesn't mean that Precious won't be a better pro but Okongwu is rated better by every major draft ranking.

even if you thought Okongwu > Precious (I see it =) is OO so much better than getting something like Precious + Bane/T Bey/Poku + (insert fav #30 pick).

My thinking is no way.

[playa-hater]

Anybody coming around to my trade down theory yet??????

14 for 25 & OKC's best 2021 non-lotto first (they have 3 possibles).

Ignore the non-star PGs from 14-early 20s range. Pick 3 guys in that wing/swing group at 25, 26, 30. Extra pick (and pick watch thread) for next year.

Anyone? Nobody??? Just me? Fine.

that might be a "take one step back, and then 2 steps forward approach"

yet I have been starving for a title.. we may be on step away.. 14 may be a solid role player. So it is hard IMO.

[31to6]

Anybody coming around to my trade down theory yet??????

14 for 25 & OKC's best 2021 non-lotto first (they have 3 possibles).

Ignore the non-star PGs from 14-early 20s range. Pick 3 guys in that wing/swing group at 25, 26, 30. Extra pick (and pick watch thread) for next year.

Anyone? Nobody??? Just me? Fine.

I’m a prisoner of the few hours I’ve spent researching this draft, but also a complete sucker for “________ pick tracking” so shrug emoji drawing?

[ddb]

:noway: Why didn't we see this rumor before the 2019 draft?

I doubt Danny can move up from 14 This year.

Maybe 26 and 30 will get something higher. Maybe he adds a body to 26 and 30 as well to move up. But it probably won't be the impact player they need. Need some luck with # 14.

wanna know what the value of 26/30 are? How about this. You can trade 26/30 to move up to 25. That's about it.

[ddb]

:lol: u4
47th was implied by being the 4th in order of typed

But it will be so "easy" to move up in this draft.

Once workouts start going the teams start to fall in love with guys.

It's RJ Hampton and then trade out..

Cole Anthony was the higher rated high school player, he is more the "Ainge" pick then Hampton, heck he was even injured last year.

I honestly think Cole Anthony is going to be a stud in the NBA. I could see Cole Anthony/Smart/Brown/Tatum/Grant small ball lineup

[ConstableGeneva]

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[djFan71]

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Paging 31to6... paging 31to6.

[Bleeding Green]

Do people fall for this every draft? I don't get it. Has there ever, in the entire Ainge administration, once, ever, been a player that was rumored to the Celtics, that they eventually drafted, let alone traded up for? Maybe I'm just saying this because I'd puke if they traded everything for a big, but I can't recall any draft day rumors regarding Ainge as having ever been true.

[captain green]

But it will be so "easy" to move up in this draft.

Once workouts start going the teams start to fall in love with guys.

It's RJ Hampton and then trade out..

Cole Anthony was the higher rated high school player, he is more the "Ainge" pick then Hampton, heck he was even injured last year.

I honestly think Cole Anthony is going to be a stud in the NBA. I could see Cole Anthony/Smart/Brown/Tatum/Grant small ball lineup

He might be a stud but he wouldn't get that much playing time to make a difference neither would rj imo wrong place for them to shine

[Jammer]

:noway: Why didn't we see this rumor before the 2019 draft?

I doubt Danny can move up from 14 This year.

Maybe 26 and 30 will get something higher. Maybe he adds a body to 26 and 30 as well to move up. But it probably won't be the impact player they need. Need some luck with # 14.

wanna know what the value of 26/30 are? How about this. You can trade 26/30 to move up to 25. That's about it.

Maybe true. I was stretching hoping it could get to 23. But you may be right. That is why I mentioned add a body.

[djFan71]

We were rumored to pick Tatum. Beyond that... ???

[Bleeding Green]

There were also Josh Jackson rumors before he just didn't show up for his workout. And I don't think anyone had the pick trade with Philly as a possibility. I just think if the media says something specific regarding what Ainge will do, just expect the exact opposite.

[Homerclease]

Do people fall for this every draft? I don't get it. Has there ever, in the entire Ainge administration, once, ever, been a player that was rumored to the Celtics, that they eventually drafted, let alone traded up for? Maybe I'm just saying this because I'd puke if they traded everything for a big, but I can't recall any draft day rumors regarding Ainge as having ever been true.

Well last year the primary target if you believe the reports was Herro and Ainge got sniped by Riley and the heat. Perhaps they don’t want to risk that same scenario happening again this year with OO. Also remember we tried to trade up for Winslow as well. Ainge himself also said they made calls trying to trade up for Robert Williams and that they got lucky he fell in their laps at 27.

I wonder if Ainge is willing to overpay to get his final piece this time to go with Tatum and Brown