2025 NBA Draft Thread, part 1 – Capture the Flagg

[Hal14]

Looking at the numbers, Fleming's FTr (driving, rim pressure indicator) is very low for a guy of that size. His unassisted FG at rim / 40 mins (indicator for driving and finishing at rim) was also very low. His usage % was also pretty low (indicator for handing the ball, putting it on the deck) and basically all of his 3PM were assisted.

I've seen a couple of plays here and there where he looked ok driving to the basket. But for the most part, I think he's pretty limited in that area. He's moreso just a catch and shoot guy on offense. Can crash the offensive boards a bit, set screens, roll to the basket, finish out of dunker's spot and is also good at running the floor in transition and beating opposing bigs down the floor for easy fast break layups.

I'm not sure this matters much? You are drafting him for his defense and maybe also his shooting. You want him to be a catch and shoot guy because that's what his skillset is well suited for.

Having said that, I think it's easy for an NBA caliber big to look good in the NCAA, and I'm not sure Fleming lives up to his hype. Lavoy Allen comes to mind as a vaguely similar player who put up vaguely similar numbers at the same ages in the same conference.

To an extent, that's true.

But at the same time, for the most part, guys scale down their role in the NBA, compared to what it was in college, since it's much tougher comp in the NBA. So guys who are just catch and shoot role players in the NBA, were typically high usage, high scoring, high FTr stars in college (while guys who were just catch and shoot role players in college, most of them are out of the league)..look at these players and their usage % during their last season of college ball:

Klay Thompson 32.8
Alec Burks 32.3
Cam Thomas 31.6
Dillon Brooks 31.6
Eric Gordon 30.8
Buddy Hield 30.2
Cole Anthony 30
Torrey Craig 29.9
Keegan Murray 29.7
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 29.2
Marcus Smart 29.2
Pascal Siakam 29.1
Bojan Bogdanovic 28.9
Larry Nance Jr 28.6
Jalen Johnson 28.6
Draymond Green 28.2
Payton Pritchard 28.2
Robert Covington 28.1
Taurean Prince 28.1
Lu Dort 27.9
Josh Hart 27.8
Caleb Martin 27.8
Austin Reaves 27.7
Jabari Smith Jr 27.6
Malik Monk 27.2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 27.2
Bobby Portis 26.7
Nickiel Walker-Alexander 26.4
Grant Williams 26.4
Aaron Nesmith 26.3
Andrew Wiggins 26.3
Naz Reid 25.9
John Konchar 25.9
PJ Washington 25.8
Caris Levert 25.6
Jaden Mcdaniels 25.6
Derrick White 25.3
Norman Powell 25.3
Max Strus 25.2
Wesley Matthews 25.1
Jalen Williams 25
Aaron Wiggins 24.9
Jalen Suggs 24.8
Desmond Bane 24.4
Herb Jones 24.3
Isaiah Joe 24.2

Teams are getting smarter..if a guy can only hit open 3's but can't put the ball on the floor and attack a closeout, they will extend their defense and run that player off the line, get way up on them and make them put the ball on the floor. They've done it with Hauser and luckily he's getting better off the dribble. But Hauser is also an exception since he's basically like a top 5 shooter to enter the league in the past decade. Fleming is not remotely close to that level as a shooter so it'll be harder for him to still make shots when opposing defenses are coming out and playing up on him.

And generally, teams are playing more 4 out and 5 out stuff these days, looking to put lineups on the floor where everyone is a threat to dribble/pass shoot..not just shoot..

Again, I have seen some intriguing flashes of Fleming driving the ball to the basket..and he is pretty young, just 20 yrs old..so I do still have him as a 1st rounder on my board..but something to keep in mind with him..

[djFan71]

Spoiler:

Looking at the numbers, Fleming's FTr (driving, rim pressure indicator) is very low for a guy of that size. His unassisted FG at rim / 40 mins (indicator for driving and finishing at rim) was also very low. His usage % was also pretty low (indicator for handing the ball, putting it on the deck) and basically all of his 3PM were assisted.

I've seen a couple of plays here and there where he looked ok driving to the basket. But for the most part, I think he's pretty limited in that area. He's moreso just a catch and shoot guy on offense. Can crash the offensive boards a bit, set screens, roll to the basket, finish out of dunker's spot and is also good at running the floor in transition and beating opposing bigs down the floor for easy fast break layups.

I'm not sure this matters much? You are drafting him for his defense and maybe also his shooting. You want him to be a catch and shoot guy because that's what his skillset is well suited for.

Having said that, I think it's easy for an NBA caliber big to look good in the NCAA, and I'm not sure Fleming lives up to his hype. Lavoy Allen comes to mind as a vaguely similar player who put up vaguely similar numbers at the same ages in the same conference.

To an extent, that's true.

But at the same time, for the most part, guys scale down their role in the NBA, compared to what it was in college, since it's much tougher comp in the NBA. So guys who are just catch and shoot role players in the NBA, were typically high usage, high scoring, high FTr stars in college (while guys who were just catch and shoot role players in college, most of them are out of the league)..look at these players and their usage % during their last season of college ball:

Klay Thompson 32.8
Alec Burks 32.3
Cam Thomas 31.6
Dillon Brooks 31.6
Eric Gordon 30.8
Buddy Hield 30.2
Cole Anthony 30
Torrey Craig 29.9
Keegan Murray 29.7
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 29.2
Marcus Smart 29.2
Pascal Siakam 29.1
Bojan Bogdanovic 28.9
Larry Nance Jr 28.6
Jalen Johnson 28.6
Draymond Green 28.2
Payton Pritchard 28.2
Robert Covington 28.1
Taurean Prince 28.1
Lu Dort 27.9
Josh Hart 27.8
Caleb Martin 27.8
Austin Reaves 27.7
Jabari Smith Jr 27.6
Malik Monk 27.2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 27.2
Bobby Portis 26.7
Nickiel Walker-Alexander 26.4
Grant Williams 26.4
Aaron Nesmith 26.3
Andrew Wiggins 26.3
Naz Reid 25.9
John Konchar 25.9
PJ Washington 25.8
Caris Levert 25.6
Jaden Mcdaniels 25.6
Derrick White 25.3
Norman Powell 25.3
Max Strus 25.2
Wesley Matthews 25.1
Jalen Williams 25
Aaron Wiggins 24.9
Jalen Suggs 24.8
Desmond Bane 24.4
Herb Jones 24.3
Isaiah Joe 24.2

Teams are getting smarter..if a guy can only hit open 3's but can't put the ball on the floor and attack a closeout, they will extend their defense and run that player off the line, get way up on them and make them put the ball on the floor. They've done it with Hauser and luckily he's getting better off the dribble. But Hauser is also an exception since he's basically like a top 5 shooter to enter the league in the past decade.

Fleming is not remotely close to that level as a shooter so it'll be harder for him to still make shots when opposing defenses are coming out and playing up on him.

And generally, teams are playing more 4 out and 5 out stuff these days, looking to put lineups on the floor where everyone is a threat to dribble/pass shoot..not just shoot..

Again, I have seen some intriguing flashes of Fleming driving the ball to the basket..and he is pretty young, just 20 yrs old..so I do still have him as a 1st rounder on my board..but something to keep in mind with him..

Sacrilege to say and all, but I look at him like late career Al without the post ups and the insane BBIQ. If he can set picks, be a roll threat, and stand in the corner other times and knock down wide open 3s, that's great. Stretching the other team's big out in that manner helps quite a bit. And he's the 5th option on the floor (maybe 4th if with Neemy) so they won't be playing out on him - they'll be trying to cheat off him. Plus you're getting that from a plus defensive big. Then you add the rest as you go. Maybe do pick and pops later. Then drives. Then post-ups on mismatches.

None of it happens Day 1, but eventually you have Rob with a 3 ball combined with Al Horford. That's not asking too much right???

[redslastlaugh]

None of it happens Day 1, but eventually you have Rob with a 3 ball combined with Al Horford. That's not asking too much right???

lol ... JT lobs to Rasheer Fleming for the ferocious slam and then next time down Fleming sets it, fades, Tatum slings it and Fleming pops the 3, lol ... it'd be fun
not too much to ask either, imo ... sign me up, lol

[playa-hater]

I've doubled back around to look at Kam Jones, you have him at 22 on your board. There's a lot to like but man, the FT shooting is such a red flag. How can a guy who has shot 41% from 3pt range in his best college season, also shoot 61%, 66%, 71% and 65% from the line over his four college seasons. And his senior year in conference he shot 58% from the line. A shooting guard, 23 yrs old, a mainly offensive player who is a candidate for a first round selection shoots 58% on free throws in conference, What a red flag. Makes me think it's a mental issue and I start thinking of Markelle Fultz or guards who defenses leave open and then the guard gets the yips and too scared to shoot. Man .....

Jason Richardson shot 65% from the line in two years at Michgan State. Reggie Miller shot 64%, albeit as a freshman. Joe Harris shot 64%, as a senior.

And I mean, Jaylen shot around 67% his first few years in the NBA, Jason Richardson 71% over the course of his career. Nick Anderson shot 66% from the line over the course of his career, I'd find more examples with an active stathead account. These guys are all taller than Kam...

It probably indicates something, but I'm not sure I would call it a red flag. What sticks out to me about Kam, personally, is that his percentages suffered during his senior year, as his assists more than doubled (I assume he was moved to the point). That reminds a bit of Avery Bradley, who struggled offensively when asked to play the point. Avery Bradley, shot 55% from the FT line in his one year of college...

That is maybe coincidence tho, AB went on to be a pretty good FT shooter.

The first person I thought of when I heard about good. Three point shooters and poor free throw shooters was bruce bowen.

[Hal14]

If we do what that guy in the mock draft video says and trade our 2 picks to get up to 19..and if Asa Newell somehow falls that far..

With our development staff, our culture..and being able to learn from KP, Al and Luke..Asa might become a stud.

I doubt he falls that far and I doubt we trade up that high, but a man can dream..

Newell has size, strength, athleticism. Only 19 yrs old. High motor, high basketball IQ. Can play the 4 or the 5. Pretty good shooting upside..can also put it on the floor and drive as well as post up. The defense is pretty good. Not great but solid - can get better.

[playa-hater]

Just finished studying up on Yaxel.. Not overly explosive and I don't see how he weighs 250 but he has solid fundamentals. Reminds me of Rui in that regard.

[dortmunder]

What about stojakovic?
3pt percent not there yet.... but is growing on me. The looks, that touch..... something there.

Think Stevens is trading our picks to get something done and avoid the 2apron. But anyway.....

Any hope that broome at his age can improve 3pt% and become horford 2.0?

[threrf23]

I'm watching the Thunder rn, thinking that Jalen Williams was a really, really good draft pick.

I see some parallels with Miles Byrd? Williams was similarly slept on for a bit, in fact I don't think his name was thrown around much before the combine. He posted similar percentages until his efficiency increased as a junior.

Byrd obviously has a slimmer frame, but added length and athleticism and/or quickness could give him better potential as a wing defender once he adds a bit more strength. Not sure if his decision making /intangibles are on the same level, but I read good things about his court vision & feel for the game, and it sounds like he takes some "bad" shots that wouldn't be considered bad if he shot a higher percentage.

[threrf23]

What about stojakovic?
3pt percent not there yet.... but is growing on me. The looks, that touch..... something there.

Son of Peja? I had no clue Peja had a son in this draft. (but he does apparently, name is Andrej)

[Bill Lumbergh]

This will probably change before the actual draft, but right now, I would be okay walking away with Broome and Chaz Lanier. Doubtful we will roster two rookies, but anyway, there's no reason why Broome can't be Wendell Carter with better offense, and Lanier would be a good fit for Mazzulla ball. Dude can really shoot it. Good size, his off ball movement is really good. Takes it to the rack hard on occasion, but his calling card is his shot.

I don't think there's any way Fleming will be on the board when we pick.

[playa-hater]

In the first playoff game, sam hauser only logged in nine minutes and then our last two draft picks was Scheierman and J Walsh who can't get in even in these playoffs.

Makes me think boston drafting any kind of wing player will be almost a total waste for a few years.

But of course, it's draft the BPA anyhow and a wing player, maybe that.

[Smart2Nesmith43]

In the first playoff game, sam hauser only logged in nine minutes and then our last two draft picks was Scheierman and J Walsh who can't get in even in these playoffs.

Makes me think boston drafting any kind of wing player will be almost a total waste for a few years.

But of course, it's draft the BPA anyhow and a wing player, maybe that.

I mean it's not like Boston has any young guards or bigs playing either. It's the playoffs, it's not rookie season anymore. They still have to draft someone (unless they trade out obviously) though.

There is an argument to be made that Brown and Tatum take so much playing time/touches/shots from the wings that it's hard for anyone else to emerge at that spot even if they are obviously NBA talents (see Aaron Nesmith). I think the only way this works is if the draftee has one absolutely elite skill (like shooting for Hauser) that can buy them a little time on the floor and they can fill a niche while slowly expanding their games. So I'd steer clear of these jack of all trades wings (except Hugo Gonzalez, that's my guy after Raynaud).

[Hal14]

What about stojakovic?
3pt percent not there yet.... but is growing on me. The looks, that touch..... something there.

He's returning to school for another year..not declaring for the draft this year.

Any hope that broome at his age can improve 3pt% and become horford 2.0?

Anything is possible. But the FT% is also really poor, which makes it less likely. Also, he's very old, further along in his development..I'd have more hope for the shooting development if he was 18-20..

[playa-hater]

In the first playoff game, sam hauser only logged in nine minutes and then our last two draft picks was Scheierman and J Walsh who can't get in even in these playoffs.

Makes me think boston drafting any kind of wing player will be almost a total waste for a few years.

But of course, it's draft the BPA anyhow and a wing player, maybe that.

I mean it's not like Boston has any young guards or bigs playing either. It's the playoffs, it's not rookie season anymore. They still have to draft someone (unless they trade out obviously) though.

There is an argument to be made that Brown and Tatum take so much playing time/touches/shots from the wings that it's hard for anyone else to emerge at that spot even if they are obviously NBA talents (see Aaron Nesmith). I think the only way this works is if the draftee has one absolutely elite skill (like shooting for Hauser) that can buy them a little time on the floor and they can fill a niche while slowly expanding their games. So I'd steer clear of these jack of all trades wings (except Hugo Gonzalez, that's my guy after Raynaud).

Don't know much yet about Hugo. But it's not just the playoffs. Hauser gets his minutes in the regular season and hopefully there will be some spare change left over for up and coming Rico. But it seems like since Boston should be a true contender for years, I would rather have someone that may crack the rotation and contribute sooner than later. Boston does have question marks at Center going forward and perhaps at Big Forward as well. A quality player at the Big position may be needed much sooner to contribute. and when was the last time Boston drafted anyone Big? Robert Williams. And before that I am thinking K.O??

I am also thinking Boston's one weakness may be lack of Defensive Rebounding.

I guess my redundant point is Wings are my favorite position overall, but the need to address a Bigger type of player really pushes away from Wings IMO.

But as I have said also many Times, "In Brad Stevens I trust"

[threrf23]

Any hope that broome at his age can improve 3pt% and become horford 2.0?

Anything is possible. But the FT% is also really poor, which makes it less likely. Also, he's very old, further along in his development..I'd have more hope for the shooting development if he was 18-20..

Admittedly, I can't quickly find many examples of big men who shot the three well but the free throw poorly. But, I think it's only fair to note that Broome's FT% in college was nearly identical to Al's. At 20 years old he shot about 30% from 3, on low quantity, but like....Al wasn't shooting threes at the same age, and three point shooting is an area where many players continue to improve into their mid-late 20s.

[165bows]

Viktor Lakhin

Viktor Lakhin looked a cut above in Portsmouth. Defensively, his disruption was on full display. He did a great job of getting into passing lanes and deflecting post entries. His ability to track the ball around the basket was stellar, as he managed to accrue blocks while still demonstrating a necessary degree of discipline. Lakhin’s timing and instincts had him in the right position consistently, making it difficult for opponents to get anything inside. His second jump looked good. When he had to guard out on the perimeter, he looked comfortable and slid his feet well. He gave evaluators everything they could have asked for on defense.

He was great offensively, too. Lakhin was ready to let the three-ball fly off the catch when he got an open look. He also starred as an offensive up at the top of the key, slinging impressive passes through tight windows. Lakhin scores on the interior, too, with both hook shots and dunks. Best of all, though, was how Lakhin married all of these skills together. He took opposing bigs off the bounce and made solid passing reads on the go. It’s not just that he’s an inside-out threat—it’s that he’s an in-between threat, too.

What makes me so confident in Lakhin is that his strong performance in Portsmouth resembles his production at Clemson. His defensive disruption this week goes hand-in-hand with his 2.7 STL% and 7.3 BLK% this past year. The jumper wasn’t a fluke, either—he hit 37.5% of his threes on good volume for a big last season. He’s been a great passer for the last two years, which is extremely encouraging when you consider that he barely passed at all during his first two college seasons. In summary, we’ve got a guy who is comfortable going five-out on both ends of the floor. Lakhin is my favorite type of upperclassman bet, as he’s a proven producer who has continued to get better while boasting a skill set that has modern NBA utility. I think he’s earned a Top 60 spot at this stage in the process.

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/the-2025-portsmouth-invitational-2a6

[playa-hater]

Viktor Lakhin

Viktor Lakhin looked a cut above in Portsmouth. Defensively, his disruption was on full display. He did a great job of getting into passing lanes and deflecting post entries. His ability to track the ball around the basket was stellar, as he managed to accrue blocks while still demonstrating a necessary degree of discipline. Lakhin’s timing and instincts had him in the right position consistently, making it difficult for opponents to get anything inside. His second jump looked good. When he had to guard out on the perimeter, he looked comfortable and slid his feet well. He gave evaluators everything they could have asked for on defense.

He was great offensively, too. Lakhin was ready to let the three-ball fly off the catch when he got an open look. He also starred as an offensive up at the top of the key, slinging impressive passes through tight windows. Lakhin scores on the interior, too, with both hook shots and dunks. Best of all, though, was how Lakhin married all of these skills together. He took opposing bigs off the bounce and made solid passing reads on the go. It’s not just that he’s an inside-out threat—it’s that he’s an in-between threat, too.

What makes me so confident in Lakhin is that his strong performance in Portsmouth resembles his production at Clemson. His defensive disruption this week goes hand-in-hand with his 2.7 STL% and 7.3 BLK% this past year. The jumper wasn’t a fluke, either—he hit 37.5% of his threes on good volume for a big last season. He’s been a great passer for the last two years, which is extremely encouraging when you consider that he barely passed at all during his first two college seasons. In summary, we’ve got a guy who is comfortable going five-out on both ends of the floor. Lakhin is my favorite type of upperclassman bet, as he’s a proven producer who has continued to get better while boasting a skill set that has modern NBA utility. I think he’s earned a Top 60 spot at this stage in the process.

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/the-2025-portsmouth-invitational-2a6

2 years ago, it was my guy Toumani Camara. So, anyone who stands out anywhere should be considered.

[redslastlaugh]

I saw that noceilings writeup on Lahkin. The interesting thing about the PIT is that, while it's mostly guys who are going to go undrafted, guys raise their profile at portsmouth to become draftable fairly frequently. PIT alums drafted rnd 1 or 2 in the last fifteen years:
Jimmy Butler
Pat Connaughton
Justin Holiday
Richaun Holmes
Terance Mann
&
Derrick White

plus a whole boatload of guys who clawed their way into NBA success after getting two-ways. Here's the list on the PIT website:
https://www.portsmouthinvitational.com/alumni/

So I've been kind of sleeping on Viktor Lahkin, even though I've been hearing good things, because he's been buried and not on a lot of top 60 big boards. But the kid is starting to get some buzz.

[Half-Full]

I saw that noceilings writeup on Lahkin. The interesting thing about the PIT is that, while it's mostly guys who are going to go undrafted, guys raise their profile at portsmouth to become draftable fairly frequently. PIT alums drafted rnd 1 or 2 in the last fifteen years:
Jimmy Butler
Pat Connaughton
Justin Holiday
Richaun Holmes
Terance Mann
&
Derrick White

plus a whole boatload of guys who clawed their way into NBA success after getting two-ways. Here's the list on the PIT website:
https://www.portsmouthinvitational.com/alumni/

So I've been kind of sleeping on Viktor Lahkin, even though I've been hearing good things, because he's been buried and not on a lot of top 60 big boards. But the kid is starting to get some buzz.

I see that one of the PIT alums listed, Kendrick Nunn, was just named Euroleague MVP for 2024-25.

[phincsfan]

RJ Felton is an interesting prospect. I saw his name on hoopshype and I’ve been watching highlights. Good size with a 6’10 wingspan. Pretty solid stats. Tough, fast and attacks the basket.