Official BKN Pick Watch Thread 2016 Season [3.0]

[DavorFanCroatia]

2 more weeks to lottery

[SMTBSI]

Andrew, I've written several posts now pointing out where I think some of the weaknesses of most common modern lotto conspiracy theories lie, and asking for suggestions on how to resolve them, and no one ever responds. It's easy to say it would be "easy", and then simply ignore any counterpoints that are brought up.

Not accusing you of doing that specifically - I'm pretty sure I'm arguing against an amorphous collection of posters who drift in and out half-interestedly, without bothering to read the full history of the conversation (understandably). So, I'm going to skip copy-pasting or rephrasing the same posts I've already made, and simply start linking to the points I'm still waiting to be countered on.

Fixing the NBA lottery? Not hard.

This post addresses some of the specific technical and organizational challenges I think a 2016 lotto conspiracy would have.

Ok, but the big thing every anti-conspiracy argument leaves out is that it would be in the self-interest of the people involved to keep the conspiracy to themselves. If you're a party to it, and benefiting from it, and/or there are consequences to revealing it, you have major incentives to keep conspiracy-ing.

I have no problem granting this for now*. I don't think I need to claim that it's in principle impossible or even highly unlikely for a large roster of conspirators to be able to keep things under wraps (in any case, doing so would be an argument founded on only one side of the risk-reward puzzle). I do claim that the larger the roster, the more failure points, and that the risk is clearly enough that it would need to be balanced by a level of reward that I haven't been convinced exists.

This post addresses a lot, but most relevant to this point is the quoted Matt Moore article at the bottom. I agree with his assessment, and would like to hear your opinion.

Also, the second half of this post remains something I'd like to hear thoughts on. The huge variability in proposed rosters - from vast rosters including the commissioner and many league execs, all 30 teams, media members, etc., to conspiracies of "just two or three people" - has major implications for motive, technical challenges, and consequences of failure.


*Although I do have to say that, for any conspiracy profile that includes members of the media (such as those that think the lotto footage gets doctored somehow between the drawing and the release of the footage), it's not hard to imagine a media member feeling highly incentivized to blow the lid off of the conspiracy - that's the kind of story that makes careers / wins Pulitzers. (This is also a good example of the ideas of the previous paragraph.)

[Andrew McCeltic]

Sure, first of all, I think you're probably right, I'm just arguing for the viability of conspiracies in general. There's an epistemological limit to how much certainty you can get in these situations, there's always room to concoct far-fetched scenarios- maybe Kiki Vandeweghe took summers of magic classes and is palming the lotto balls and replacing them.

Re: the lottery itself and any "weak points" in the selection, those would be easier to identify for the people actually behind the scenes and knowledgeable about every step of the process. Those videos of the drawing are essentially theater- there's a woman whose sole job is to carefully write "Cleveland" on the white board and draw a line under it. It's like 'The Price Is Right.'

I might be missing something, but the only oddity of the 2014 video is that Vandeweghe reads out the full combinations and then immediately knows it's "Cleveland" or "Milwaukee"- there's obviously someone directing the proceedings who's in the room but not on camera. Weighting, magnetizing balls, those things are possible. I would think of that more as 'corruption' than 'conspiracy'.

Re: the rosters of conspirators, I could only imagine either one or two people in key positions (plus maybe some Ernst & Young 'we got this' level of understanding what's being asked for) to skew the process, OR an understanding among owners/GMs that the lottery is for the fans, that it's fair, but that the league will occasionally take measures to help franchises (or to punish tanking).

You're also assuming that this is an ethically and legally rigorous process which everyone takes with great seriousness. It's very easy for corruption to make people mouth platitudes they don't actually live up to. Iceland's PM just stepped down because of Panama Papers leaks, David Cameron is in trouble in the U.K., here in the U.S., I don't think we'd do much if Clinton or Trump were found to be involved. And it's all technically 'legal', and all of those people are on record loudly protesting the corruption and unfairness of shell corporations and tax-dodging.

Could everyone involved with the draft lottery know it's a pr spectacle, which only occasionally (the once in a half decade Shaq or Lebron or Duncan draft) has a major impact on the on-court and off-court fortune(s) of a franchise? And be content with occasionally throwing a bone to New Orleans? Seems possible.

Again, I'd say it's 80 percent likely the entire lottery process is legit- maybe higher. But the inability to describe exactly how a planned or staged lottery would work just puts a "conspiracy" beyond a reasonable doubt, it doesn't disprove it.

[Crossy2008]

I think the NBA lottery conspiracies died when the video of the process, and the ping pong balls were introduced. The conspiracies for me are with all of the lotteries prior to what I consider to be a very open and honest system that we currently have. I would actually prefer if the whole process was held live, and the numbers for each team were released prior to the drawing because I think it would be kind of exciting.

This lottery is designed to give any team in it a chance at getting the first, second, or third pick in the draft. The results are always going to upset people, and some years they may upset people more than other years. For instance, if a team like Chicago won this year there would be a lot of upset people.

My only criticism of the way they do it now is that they assign the numbers sequentially. I think the numbers should be randomized with 250 random sequences going to the worst team and so on.

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

I think the NBA lottery conspiracies died when the video of the process, and the ping pong balls were introduced. The conspiracies for me are with all of the lotteries prior to what I consider to be a very open and honest system that we currently have. I would actually prefer if the whole process was held live, and the numbers for each team were released prior to the drawing because I think it would be kind of exciting.

This lottery is designed to give any team in it a chance at getting the first, second, or third pick in the draft. The results are always going to upset people, and some years they may upset people more than other years. For instance, if a team like Chicago won this year there would be a lot of upset people.

My only criticism of the way they do it now is that they assign the numbers sequentially. I think the numbers should be randomized with 250 random sequences going to the worst team and so on.

I know the current format televised is for dramatic purposes, but I agree with you - have all of the GMs in a room with their sheet of lottery numbers, all gathered around the ping-pong ball machine. Draw for the first pick. Who wouldn't want to see a grown man jumping up and down, excited that the future of his franchise may have just changed for the better? Alternatively, it would also be pretty funny seeing GMs of tanking teams look sad after they wasted a whole season and ended up with the 4th pick overall.

[Crossy2008]

I think the NBA lottery conspiracies died when the video of the process, and the ping pong balls were introduced. The conspiracies for me are with all of the lotteries prior to what I consider to be a very open and honest system that we currently have. I would actually prefer if the whole process was held live, and the numbers for each team were released prior to the drawing because I think it would be kind of exciting.

This lottery is designed to give any team in it a chance at getting the first, second, or third pick in the draft. The results are always going to upset people, and some years they may upset people more than other years. For instance, if a team like Chicago won this year there would be a lot of upset people.

My only criticism of the way they do it now is that they assign the numbers sequentially. I think the numbers should be randomized with 250 random sequences going to the worst team and so on.

I know the current format televised is for dramatic purposes, but I agree with you - have all of the GMs in a room with their sheet of lottery numbers, all gathered around the ping-pong ball machine. Draw for the first pick. Who wouldn't want to see a grown man jumping up and down, excited that the future of his franchise may have just changed for the better? Alternatively, it would also be pretty funny seeing GMs of tanking teams look sad after they wasted a whole season and ended up with the 4th pick overall.

The argument against it being live has two parts. One the drama of who gets the first pick is revealed immediately, but I think there is drama in the second and third pick as well. The second is duplicate numbers, but that happens, and the process is quick enough.

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

I think the NBA lottery conspiracies died when the video of the process, and the ping pong balls were introduced. The conspiracies for me are with all of the lotteries prior to what I consider to be a very open and honest system that we currently have. I would actually prefer if the whole process was held live, and the numbers for each team were released prior to the drawing because I think it would be kind of exciting.

This lottery is designed to give any team in it a chance at getting the first, second, or third pick in the draft. The results are always going to upset people, and some years they may upset people more than other years. For instance, if a team like Chicago won this year there would be a lot of upset people.

My only criticism of the way they do it now is that they assign the numbers sequentially. I think the numbers should be randomized with 250 random sequences going to the worst team and so on.

I know the current format televised is for dramatic purposes, but I agree with you - have all of the GMs in a room with their sheet of lottery numbers, all gathered around the ping-pong ball machine. Draw for the first pick. Who wouldn't want to see a grown man jumping up and down, excited that the future of his franchise may have just changed for the better? Alternatively, it would also be pretty funny seeing GMs of tanking teams look sad after they wasted a whole season and ended up with the 4th pick overall.

The argument against it being live has two parts. One the drama of who gets the first pick is revealed immediately, but I think there is drama in the second and third pick as well. The second is duplicate numbers, but that happens, and the process is quick enough.

If the NBA really wanted to make it a great event, how about releasing every team's set of numbers to the public 2 hours before the actual draw? That way, every fan feels like they're playing the lottery. Imagine finding out first-hand that the Celtics won the lottery? That would be even funner than watching some dude in a suit open up envelopes.

[rickrolled]

This is OT, I hate discussing draft conspiracies, I believe the draft process is rigged at some point, could be a small click of people involved, doesn't matter if ernst and young is a big comany and the NBA is a minor client.

They could sign a draft contract that would involve secrecy about the contract signed with the NBA you know..like if the NBA leaks info about rigging the draft, ernst and yiung exposes the "side contract" signed, backed with video/audio.

The World is a conspiracy, everything is a conspiracy.

[Turgon]

I'll just leave this here. It happened less than a year ago in Serbia. Google it if you want, read about it and form your own opinion.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ls6zq9ibHpY[/youtube]

I have nothing against those who think the lottery isn't rigged. I honestly believe (or at least want to believe) that it isn't. But to think it can't be done or ridicule those who believe in foul play is something I find naive. In my experience, people like that are usually too young or too well-natured to believe in cheating. Life usually teaches them otherwise.

And please don't call it a conspiracy. It's just a good old-fashioned rigging.

[MaxwellSmart]

This is OT, I hate discussing draft conspiracies, I believe the draft process is rigged at some point, could be a small click of people involved, doesn't matter if ernst and young is a big comany and the NBA is a minor client.

They could sign a draft contract that would involve secrecy about the contract signed with the NBA you know..like if the NBA leaks info about rigging the draft, ernst and yiung exposes the "side contract" signed, backed with video/audio.

The World is a conspiracy, everything is a conspiracy.

There is only ONE way the Lottery can be fixed---and THIS is how:

By assigning teams SEQUENTIAL Number combinations---the league can eliminate some numbers from being drawn...
Thus KEEPING certain teams from winning (2007-Memphis/Boston--teams considered Tankers)...They cannot, however rig it for a certain team to WIN it---only keep teams from winning...Wyc has stated that EVERY number combination the Celtics were assigned in 2007---had either the #1 or #2 in them....Why is this--?

By bringing in this "Secured" Locked Box--with a set of new Balls (different from the practice drawing)--they can, if they choose to, have heavier balls (matching the sequential numbers)....The balls are blown upwards during the drawing--so, perhaps tinkering with the air pressure can keep the weighted balls from being drawn---I dunno...it's a stretch...but could be done--if they wanted to.

Nobody would need to be IN on it---not teams/Ernst and Young...only the league---and whomever locks those balls in that Mysterious Black Box they always bring out---to PROVE that nothing crooked is going on---The Box IS the crooked thing---but nobody ever asks why they switch the balls in the first place---What the Hell was wrong with the Practice Balls--??

Now, if they changed the rules--and assigned RANDOM sets of numbers to teams--there is NO WAY it could be manipulated.

[Fidel Sarcasmo]

Watch when we get the top pick or top two, the conspiracy guys on here are gonna vanish into thin air. Same guys talking about this probably believe in the illuminati.

[Darth Celtic]

well, we didn't tank this year, and neither did the nets. So winning the lotto this year would support the theory that pure tankers are kept from winning top 3.

[Geech]

Ping-Pong ball PSI.

[165bows]

Ping-Pong ball PSI.

PV=nRT FTW.

[165bows]

After evaluating the top prospects in the class over the course of the last four years, Scout's final 2016 top 100 rankings are in.
This top 100 list was tough to compile. The truth is it was arguably the most difficult list of rankings that the Scout basketball recruiting team (Brian Snow, Josh Gershon and myself) has put together because of the sheer amount of top tier talent.

The depth at the top of the 2016 class is notable and the class as a whole ranks as the best group since 2007, which produced the likes of Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin and James Harden.
The top 16 spots in the class were particularly tough to rank, as each player you could make a case for a spot in the top 10.

Scout.com has good things to say about the graduating HS class of hoops prospects.

http://www.scout.com/college/basketball/recruiting/story/1667483-hoops-recruiting-final-2016-top-100

[BfB]

Sure, first of all, I think you're probably right, I'm just arguing for the viability of conspiracies in general. There's an epistemological limit to how much certainty you can get in these situations, there's always room to concoct far-fetched scenarios- maybe Kiki Vandeweghe took summers of magic classes and is palming the lotto balls and replacing them.

Re: the lottery itself and any "weak points" in the selection, those would be easier to identify for the people actually behind the scenes and knowledgeable about every step of the process. Those videos of the drawing are essentially theater- there's a woman whose sole job is to carefully write "Cleveland" on the white board and draw a line under it. It's like 'The Price Is Right.'

I might be missing something, but the only oddity of the 2014 video is that Vandeweghe reads out the full combinations and then immediately knows it's "Cleveland" or "Milwaukee"- there's obviously someone directing the proceedings who's in the room but not on camera. Weighting, magnetizing balls, those things are possible. I would think of that more as 'corruption' than 'conspiracy'.

Re: the rosters of conspirators, I could only imagine either one or two people in key positions (plus maybe some Ernst & Young 'we got this' level of understanding what's being asked for) to skew the process, OR an understanding among owners/GMs that the lottery is for the fans, that it's fair, but that the league will occasionally take measures to help franchises (or to punish tanking).

You're also assuming that this is an ethically and legally rigorous process which everyone takes with great seriousness. It's very easy for corruption to make people mouth platitudes they don't actually live up to. Iceland's PM just stepped down because of Panama Papers leaks, David Cameron is in trouble in the U.K., here in the U.S., I don't think we'd do much if Clinton or Trump were found to be involved. And it's all technically 'legal', and all of those people are on record loudly protesting the corruption and unfairness of shell corporations and tax-dodging.

Could everyone involved with the draft lottery know it's a pr spectacle, which only occasionally (the once in a half decade Shaq or Lebron or Duncan draft) has a major impact on the on-court and off-court fortune(s) of a franchise? And be content with occasionally throwing a bone to New Orleans? Seems possible.

Again, I'd say it's 80 percent the entire lottery process is legit- maybe higher. But the inability to describe exactly how a planned or staged lottery would work just puts a "conspiracy" beyond a reasonable doubt, it doesn't disprove it.

1. Who makes the ping pong balls?
2. Are they made before the number sequences are chosen?

[fallguy]

The problem with most conspiracy theorists is they make determinations based on suspicion rather than evidence.

Of course there is collusion and conspiracy across all facets of life.

But with respect to the lottery - there's nothing remotely compelling enough to suggest anything illicit happened. Which is why anyone arguing that it's likely the lottery is or was fixed sounds ludicrous to me.

[gocelts]

FOR the record...or whatever this is....for the REALGM RECORD...if the Celtics win the lottery this year...I will never ever ever accuse or mock the lotto system EVER again.

[rickrolled]

We agree to disagree then, I believe it's rigged and the winners are handpicked each year ever since the Ewing draft. Some want to be the devils advocate and refuse to believe there's a slight possibility of being rigged, I'll just believe in what I believe then and that is that.

[fallguy]

We agree to disagree then, I believe it's rigged and the winners are handpicked each year ever since the Ewing draft. Some want to be the devils advocate and refuse to believe there's a slight possibility of being rigged, I'll just believe in what I believe then and that is that.

Why do you believe this? Have you encountered evidence that swayed you into thinking this?