Official Celtics 2020-21 Regular Season Thread

[Fierce1]

Depressing stat alert: The Boston Celtics are LAST in offensive rating and 28th in net rating in 4th quarters. We have got to finish games better. Poor offensive execution in close games has haunted us since the Heat series and has apparently carried over to this season.

Previous years rankings (Offensive, Net):
2019-20 - 2nd, 7th
2018-19 - 6th, 3rd
2017-18 - 6th, 7th
2016-17 - 3rd, 8th

So this poor showing in 4th quarters is anomalous as far as recent Stevens-coached teams go. Still lots of basketball season to go to remedy this.

To remedy that, the Celts must get veteran players using the TPE.

Miami did that last season when they got Iguodala and Crowder at the trade deadline.

One remedy we have right now is stop isoing all the way home. You go I go in the 4th. The players can't worry about who's walking through the door they need to play better!

Part of that is the Celts have players who are iso players.

I think Tatum and Brown should be the only players who should iso.

But Kemba is also an iso player, so that's why see so many iso plays in the 4th.

[Fencer reregistered]

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[Shak_Celts]

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Yes! He’s only 22, let him try EVERYTHING!

[zoyathedestroya]

Working theory I haven't really dug into: We can't really use the TPE on anyone new in the offseason that we couldn't also get by the deadline - if we send out enough salary to duck the hard cap.

In the summer, everyone thinks we won't be hard-capped. Which we won't. BUT, to trade for anyone that isn't currently signed, it would have to be a sign & trade. Which means we would be hard-capped again! And with Tatum's contract we have a lot LESS room under that cap (assuming we fill out the roster), if any. I haven't run those #s.

Right now, we are something like $22M under the apron hard cap. The TPE is $28.5M. If we send out $7M+ in salary, we can take anyone THIS year that is a lower salary than Hayward. We might be in the tax, but we can do it.

If we wait til the offseason, there are no new players available to fit into the TPE. If they aren't signed now, we have to S&T for them which triggers the hard-cap again.

Some reasons to wait til the summer are:
1) Currently signed players not available at the deadline may become available. Teams are more willing to deal in the offseason.
2) Ducking the tax.

1 could be significant and 2 stops the repeater tax this year, so you get the guy you want in the summer instead if he would mean paying tax. Non-trivial. BUT, I don't think the idea of waiting to the summer to open up loads more opportunities to get different guys than we can get now makes sense.


OK, tear apart that theory please.

That's a good point. With JT's new salary kicking in, there might not be much left of the TPE that can be used for an S&T'd player before we scrape that hard cap again. Well, unless Kemba goes to another team with not much salary coming back.

As for "new players available", I can only think of the guys who recently signed extensions -- Isaac, Fultz, Anunoby, Derrick White, Kennard, Kuzma, Adebayo, Mitchell. Probably missing a couple of names.

[zoyathedestroya]

The Celtics are averaging 22.4 assists per game. That would be the 2nd worst average for the Cs since 2007-08 (worst is tanking season of 2013-14).

Their current 53.5% assist rate is ranked 2nd lowest in the league (POR has the lowest). We've become the Blazers East but with better defense. The nba stat site only goes back to 1996-97 tracking assist rate. That 53.5% would be the WORST for the Celtics in the last 25 seasons.

Hey, it's cool that the Jays are making all these tough shots now. But I don't think this is sustainable offense or the direction we want this team to go. Part of this is not having better players around them who can make shots when called upon, but I think there's a bigger festering issue which is the lack of ball movement. I think our best games (usually leading to blowouts) so far were when the ball was zipping around for better shot selection and everyone got to touch the ball instead of the mismatch-&-iso oriented attack.

[playa-hater]

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Yes! He’s only 22, let him try EVERYTHING!

thought he was 19??

[playa-hater]

duplicate

[djFan71]

Working theory I haven't really dug into: We can't really use the TPE on anyone new in the offseason that we couldn't also get by the deadline - if we send out enough salary to duck the hard cap.

In the summer, everyone thinks we won't be hard-capped. Which we won't. BUT, to trade for anyone that isn't currently signed, it would have to be a sign & trade. Which means we would be hard-capped again! And with Tatum's contract we have a lot LESS room under that cap (assuming we fill out the roster), if any. I haven't run those #s.

Right now, we are something like $22M under the apron hard cap. The TPE is $28.5M. If we send out $7M+ in salary, we can take anyone THIS year that is a lower salary than Hayward. We might be in the tax, but we can do it.

If we wait til the offseason, there are no new players available to fit into the TPE. If they aren't signed now, we have to S&T for them which triggers the hard-cap again.

Some reasons to wait til the summer are:
1) Currently signed players not available at the deadline may become available. Teams are more willing to deal in the offseason.
2) Ducking the tax.

1 could be significant and 2 stops the repeater tax this year, so you get the guy you want in the summer instead if he would mean paying tax. Non-trivial. BUT, I don't think the idea of waiting to the summer to open up loads more opportunities to get different guys than we can get now makes sense.


OK, tear apart that theory please.

That's a good point. With JT's new salary kicking in, there might not be much left of the TPE that can be used for an S&T'd player before we scrape that hard cap again. Well, unless Kemba goes to another team with not much salary coming back.

As for "new players available", I can only think of the guys who recently signed extensions -- Isaac, Fultz, Anunoby, Derrick White, Kennard, Kuzma, Adebayo, Mitchell. Probably missing a couple of names.

Oh yeah, good call. I assume that just means easier to trade for those extension guys at that point? Since they're actually on the contract you don't have BYC issues, etc.

[zoyathedestroya]

Working theory I haven't really dug into: We can't really use the TPE on anyone new in the offseason that we couldn't also get by the deadline - if we send out enough salary to duck the hard cap.

In the summer, everyone thinks we won't be hard-capped. Which we won't. BUT, to trade for anyone that isn't currently signed, it would have to be a sign & trade. Which means we would be hard-capped again! And with Tatum's contract we have a lot LESS room under that cap (assuming we fill out the roster), if any. I haven't run those #s.

Right now, we are something like $22M under the apron hard cap. The TPE is $28.5M. If we send out $7M+ in salary, we can take anyone THIS year that is a lower salary than Hayward. We might be in the tax, but we can do it.

If we wait til the offseason, there are no new players available to fit into the TPE. If they aren't signed now, we have to S&T for them which triggers the hard-cap again.

Some reasons to wait til the summer are:
1) Currently signed players not available at the deadline may become available. Teams are more willing to deal in the offseason.
2) Ducking the tax.

1 could be significant and 2 stops the repeater tax this year, so you get the guy you want in the summer instead if he would mean paying tax. Non-trivial. BUT, I don't think the idea of waiting to the summer to open up loads more opportunities to get different guys than we can get now makes sense.


OK, tear apart that theory please.

That's a good point. With JT's new salary kicking in, there might not be much left of the TPE that can be used for an S&T'd player before we scrape that hard cap again. Well, unless Kemba goes to another team with not much salary coming back.

As for "new players available", I can only think of the guys who recently signed extensions -- Isaac, Fultz, Anunoby, Derrick White, Kennard, Kuzma, Adebayo, Mitchell. Probably missing a couple of names.

Oh yeah, good call. I assume that just means easier to trade for those extension guys at that point? Since they're actually on the contract you don't have BYC issues, etc.

I want Isaac. Is it bad for us to pine for Isaac? I know he's been hit bad by injuries early in his career but maybe getting to Boston will have the reverse effect (like when we sign iron men that rack up DNPs/injuries while in Boston).

[Tatumfor2]

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Shoot this directly into my veins!

[djFan71]

That's a good point. With JT's new salary kicking in, there might not be much left of the TPE that can be used for an S&T'd player before we scrape that hard cap again. Well, unless Kemba goes to another team with not much salary coming back.

As for "new players available", I can only think of the guys who recently signed extensions -- Isaac, Fultz, Anunoby, Derrick White, Kennard, Kuzma, Adebayo, Mitchell. Probably missing a couple of names.

Oh yeah, good call. I assume that just means easier to trade for those extension guys at that point? Since they're actually on the contract you don't have BYC issues, etc.

I want Isaac. Is it bad for us to pine for Isaac? I know he's been hit bad by injuries early in his career but maybe getting to Boston will have the reverse effect (like when we sign iron men that rack up DNPs/injuries while in Boston).

He's perfect, I've pined for him since the draft. If healthy, but absolutely. Just don't see ORL letting go of the potential without an overpay.

[zoyathedestroya]

Analytics will tell you ifree throws, shots at the rim, and three-pointers are the most efficient shots in basketball. Stevens has also emphasized this numerous times in the past.

Both Tatum and Brown are below league average in the amount/rate of shots they get from all three of those spots. Both have above average true shooting %. Their shooting accuracy has been off the charts so far.

[TheMartian]

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[robdog_5]

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This is why I don't want Danny to sit on his hands. We have 2 legit dudes. If we surround them with crap the next year or 2 who is to say they don't become the next star asking out

[Shak_Celts]

PLAY THAT!!!!!

[Shak_Celts]

"WHAT WE FACE MAY LOOK INSURMOUNTABLE, BUT WHAT I LEARNED IS THAT WE ARE ALWAYS STRONGER THAN WE KNOW."

LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO CELTICSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!

[Shak_Celts]

OOPS

[djFan71]

Analytics will tell you ifree throws, shots at the rim, and three-pointers are the most efficient shots in basketball. Stevens has also emphasized this numerous times in the past.

Both Tatum and Brown are below league average in the amount/rate of shots they get from all three of those spots. Both have above average true shooting %. Their shooting accuracy has been off the charts so far.

I feel like maybe we’re at the inflection point where everyone knows that. So the other shots are so much easier to generate that they have become more efficient because they’re less efficient.... I don’t expect the shooting percentages to continue forever, but at some point a few less efficiency points in shots you can get any time you want may ultimately be more efficient than higher percentage shots that are harder to generate.

Or not, I dunno it sounds good to me right now.

[The_Ghost_of_JB]

Breakdown of the Celtics roster

NBA talent level
Tatum
Brown
Walker
TT
Theis
PP
Williams
Smart

Shouldn't be in the NBA (But get minutes anyway for one reason or another)
Teauge
Waters
Green
Williams
Edwards

Not ready
Tacko
Nesmith
Langford

Belongs in the NBA when your team is up or down 25 with 2 minutes left
Semi

[FlatearthZorro]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/261401/RealGM-Radio-Jared-Weiss-On-The-Celtics-And-The-East

Btw, the guys are echoing my views on Thompson. They also said that he didn't have a training camp, which is true.