Trade Thread #7: The Tide is Turning, but still Myles to go

[GoCeltics123]

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[soxfan2003]

When Jaylen Brown’s deal went down
People said Danny was a clown
Now 20m for Joe Harris means that up is down

Although I didn't think it was a bargain like the Smart deal...I supported the Brown deal but that is really only because I believe in him. It was a pretty fair offer for both sides.

But the Brown and Harris deals are not too comparable.
First of all Harris is an above average player and Brown right now is moderately better than that. Brown is a very good player. Harris will actually be making an average of 18.75 million a year which is substantially less than Brown at 26.75 million per year.

More importantly, besides the premium based upon shooting where Harris has averaged 42% from 3 over the last 3 years.... Brown got his deal one year early and that is huge since Celtics were taking the injury risk/performance risk for an entire year. Imagine if Brown had blown out his ACL or even achilles. Brown is still young(24) so the injury risk wasn't super high with the achilles at least but given all of the injuries to stars in the last few years, it is still a scary risk for a gm to take. With Brown the risk was probably more of a performance risk than an injury risk. If his game had stagnated instead of improving last year, the deal looks bad. I had a high degree of confidence that Brown would modestly improve and he did.

If Brown was on the market now he would get more money but I think teams would hesitate to pay him as much as some Celtics fans think. Brown is a very good all around player but besides the fast break and perhaps cutting to the basket probably doesn't have a fairly elite skill. Defense good to very good but not elite. And he has a few things he is somewhat mediocre at like ball handling and free throw shooting.

Teams are desperate for stars and potential stars so I do think Brown gets something like 4/115 on open market right now -- higher than the 4/107 he signed -- but that doesn't mean the 4/107 wasn't a modest overpay at the time given injury/performance risk. But I can see why Ainge did it if he wanted to keep Brown since you never know if some team is just going to do a crazy overpay in FA.

A team like the Knicks may be operating in a more intelligent fashion so it turns out that they were unlikely to be the crazy overpay. They supposedly want Hayward but IMHO only at below market value so that he is a positive asset that they can quickly flip. I think they would do the same thing with Brown.... kind of viewing him as 3rd best player on a typical champion or an asset to flip. You try to sign him at below market if you want to flip the player. '

Maybe the Hawks would have given Brown a boatload of money given he is from Marietta Georgia.

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

Just re-sign Hayward, and scoop up Ibaka or Baynes with the MLE.

[Celts17Pride]

Are either poirier or kanter deals official?
seems like either could be wrapped into the Hayward deal if we need more outgoing salary.

Both have been completed

[Green89]

Have a sinking feeling that Ainge has once again blown the offseason.no moves yet, most players that could help are already off the board, glaring frontcourt holes... same song just a different year.

Take a deep breath. There are plenty of really solid FA options still available. Pair that with a likely trade with Indy and everything can take shape rather quickly once it strikes.

People in here act like Danny is the only person the C's have working right now that can do deals. They have multiple people working on these things and I really doubt we ae losing out on anyone we really want just because we haven't dotted the I's yet on a Hayward deal.

Not so sure about that. I recall a few free agent years ago where Danny was interviewed and mentioned focusing on a deal (may have been the Paul George one) and he basically said they lost other opportunities due to working on that deal. Don't remember the words he used exactly, but something to the effect of other deals they may have had interest in were being made while they were having to work on options for that particular one.

[ILC]

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Hopefully that takes Rondo out of the picture for them.

I'd love him to come back which seems unlikely at this point, but at least go to Clippers and stick it to Lakers. There'd be so many former Celtics on that team.

[djFan71]

Are either poirier or kanter deals official?
seems like either could be wrapped into the Hayward deal if we need more outgoing salary.

Both have been completed

Thanks. I had to hit "view more transactions" like 6 times on spotrac to finally see that too.
Ah well. Dipo to the Knicks and IND/BOS split the DAL '21 pick.

[GoCeltics123]

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[ConstableGeneva]

Just re-sign Hayward, and scoop up Ibaka or Baynes with the MLE.

[Celts17Pride]

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Defensive guard to have an alternative to Young

[hugepatsfan]

As of right now we have 13 players under contract:

Kemba / Pritchard / Edwards
Smart / Nesmith / Langford
Brown / Semi / Green
Tatum / Grant
Theis / R Williams

Total salary of $106,181,506. That is $26,445,494 below the luxury tax line. It's $32,746,494 below the apron which would be the hard cap to use the full MLE vs tax payers.

Turner makes $18M. If we take back McDermott we're still below the tax. Or we could dump him omg a 3rd team and be able to use the basically the whole MLE while avoiding the tax. Or we could go over the tax slightly to use all of it, but that doesn't seem smart. Or we could replace Semi with a rookie (not vet) minimum and use the whole thing while below the tax. We could waive Jevonte Green and split the MLE between two players.

Kemba/Smart/Brown/Tatum/Turner/Theis are 6 proven rotation guys. Playoff rotations are 8-9 guys. I'm sorry but between the MLE split up however we want and all the 1st round picks on the roster it should not be an issue finding a 7th, 8th and 9th man.

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

When Jaylen Brown’s deal went down
People said Danny was a clown
Now 20m for Joe Harris means that up is down

Although I didn't think it was a bargain like the Smart deal...I supported the Brown deal but that is really only because I believe in him. It was a pretty fair offer for both sides.

But the Brown and Harris deals are not too comparable.
First of all Harris is an above average player and Brown right now is moderately better than that. Brown is a very good player. Harris will actually be making an average of 18.75 million a year which is substantially less than Brown at 26.75 million per year.

More importantly, besides the premium based upon shooting where Harris has averaged 42% from 3 over the last 3 years.... Brown got his deal one year early and that is huge since Celtics were taking the injury risk/performance risk for an entire year. Imagine if Brown had blown out his ACL or even achilles. Brown is still young(24) so the injury risk wasn't super high with the achilles at least but given all of the injuries to stars in the last few years, it is still a scary risk for a gm to take. With Brown the risk was probably more of a performance risk than an injury risk. If his game had stagnated instead of improving last year, the deal looks bad. I had a high degree of confidence that Brown would modestly improve and he did.

If Brown was on the market now he would get more money but I think teams would hesitate to pay him as much as some Celtics fans think. Brown is a very good all around player but besides the fast break and perhaps cutting to the basket probably doesn't have a fairly elite skill. Defense good to very good but not elite. And he has a few things he is somewhat mediocre at like ball handling and free throw shooting.

Teams are desperate for stars and potential stars so I do think Brown gets something like 4/115 on open market right now -- higher than the 4/107 he signed -- but that doesn't mean the 4/107 wasn't a modest overpay at the time given injury/performance risk. But I can see why Ainge did it if he wanted to keep Brown since you never know if some team is just going to do a crazy overpay in FA.

A team like the Knicks may be operating in a more intelligent fashion so it turns out that they were unlikely to be the crazy overpay. They supposedly want Hayward but IMHO only at below market value so that he is a positive asset that they can quickly flip. I think they would do the same thing with Brown.... kind of viewing him as 3rd best player on a typical champion or an asset to flip. You try to sign him at below market if you want to flip the player. '

Maybe the Hawks would have given Brown a boatload of money given he is from Marietta Georgia.

The Hawks would have offered Jaylen the max, no questions asked.

[Tyakack]

Just re-sign Hayward, and scoop up Ibaka or Baynes with the MLE.

Resigning hayward and getting baynes is actually my preferred scenario but I doubt it happens. Unlike some, I didn't forget how good hayward is when healthy. If we can make that happen we should. If hayward was healthy we are in the finals this year... And his injuries were freak injuries. Unlucky injuries. Not likely to keep happening.

[drs123310]

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yes ATL out of the running. Another poster said it earlier, but if NYK can ink someone (FVV, etc.) that will completely erode any remaining leverage for Indy

Edit: Keith Smith just replied saying probably around 25 still, because they could sign Dunn using Room Exception

[GotDaSauce]

Take a deep breath. There are plenty of really solid FA options still available. Pair that with a likely trade with Indy and everything can take shape rather quickly once it strikes.

People in here act like Danny is the only person the C's have working right now that can do deals. They have multiple people working on these things and I really doubt we ae losing out on anyone we really want just because we haven't dotted the I's yet on a Hayward deal.

Not so sure about that. I recall a few free agent years ago where Danny was interviewed and mentioned focusing on a deal (may have been the Paul George one) and he basically said they lost other opportunities due to working on that deal. Don't remember the words he used exactly, but something to the effect of other deals they may have had interest in were being made while they were having to work on options for that particular one.

The PG deal was specifically because they had to wait until a certain date after the draft to finalize it and its the pacers that decided to go a different way. The deal was already negotiated and ready to go though. This one has no such restrictions and if Danny called someone saying give me a day to finalize the deal and the money will be waiting for you I'm sure that wouldnt be an issue.

[keevsnick1]

When Jaylen Brown’s deal went down
People said Danny was a clown
Now 20m for Joe Harris means that up is down

Although I didn't think it was a bargain like the Smart deal...I supported the Brown deal but that is really only because I believe in him. It was a pretty fair offer for both sides.

But the Brown and Harris deals are not too comparable.
First of all Harris is an above average player and Brown right now is moderately better than that. Brown is a very good player. Harris will actually be making an average of 18.75 million a year which is substantially less than Brown at 26.75 million per year.

More importantly, besides the premium based upon shooting where Harris has averaged 42% from 3 over the last 3 years.... Brown got his deal one year early and that is huge since Celtics were taking the injury risk/performance risk for an entire year. Imagine if Brown had blown out his ACL or even achilles. Brown is still young(24) so the injury risk wasn't super high with the achilles at least but given all of the injuries to stars in the last few years, it is still a scary risk for a gm to take. With Brown the risk was probably more of a performance risk than an injury risk. If his game had stagnated instead of improving last year, the deal looks bad. I had a high degree of confidence that Brown would modestly improve and he did.

If Brown was on the market now he would get more money but I think teams would hesitate to pay him as much as some Celtics fans think. Brown is a very good all around player but besides the fast break and perhaps cutting to the basket probably doesn't have a fairly elite skill. Defense good to very good but not elite. And he has a few things he is somewhat mediocre at like ball handling and free throw shooting.

Teams are desperate for stars and potential stars so I do think Brown gets something like 4/115 on open market right now -- higher than the 4/107 he signed -- but that doesn't mean the 4/107 wasn't a modest overpay at the time given injury/performance risk. But I can see why Ainge did it if he wanted to keep Brown since you never know if some team is just going to do a crazy overpay in FA.

A team like the Knicks may be operating in a more intelligent fashion so it turns out that they were unlikely to be the crazy overpay. They supposedly want Hayward but IMHO only at below market value so that he is a positive asset that they can quickly flip. I think they would do the same thing with Brown.... kind of viewing him as 3rd best player on a typical champion or an asset to flip. You try to sign him at below market if you want to flip the player. '

Maybe the Hawks would have given Brown a boatload of money given he is from Marietta Georgia.

The Hawks would have offered Jaylen the max, no questions asked.

Without a doubt, he would have been the perfect fit there. I would much, much, much, much, much, muuuuuuch rather have Brown on his current contract than Joe Harris on his.

[ConstableGeneva]

As of right now we have 13 players under contract:

Kemba / Pritchard / Edwards
Smart / Nesmith / Langford
Brown / Semi / Green
Tatum / Grant
Theis / R Williams

Total salary of $106,181,506. That is $26,445,494 below the luxury tax line. It's $32,746,494 below the apron which would be the hard cap to use the full MLE vs tax payers.

Turner makes $18M. If we take back McDermott we're still below the tax. Or we could dump him omg a 3rd team and be able to use the basically the whole MLE while avoiding the tax. Or we could go over the tax slightly to use all of it, but that doesn't seem smart. Or we could replace Semi with a rookie (not vet) minimum and use the whole thing while below the tax. We could waive Jevonte Green and split the MLE between two players.

Kemba/Smart/Brown/Tatum/Turner/Theis are 6 proven rotation guys. Playoff rotations are 8-9 guys. I'm sorry but between the MLE split up however we want and all the 1st round picks on the roster it should not be an issue finding a 7th, 8th and 9th man.

Depends on who you get for the MLE and how Nesmith/Pritchard perform. Rookies aren't locks to make an impact in the playoffs. And the unexpected Hayward injury should still be fresh in our memory. Being at least 10-deep with guys who've been through the playoffs would be nice.

[Curmudgeon]

The Hawks or Knicks can still get Hayward in a sign and trade if he's willing to go to either of those two places. That way Hayward gets more money.

Would Hayward be willing to go to Golden State? How about Hayward (at $25M), Langford, rights to Nesmith for Wiggins, rights to Wiseman.

[snowman]

I know we haven't signed anyone and the Hayward deal is still in limbo, but what does our cap look like if:

We trade Hayward for Turner and McDermott
sign both Nesmith and Pritchard to their full 120 rookie scale contracts
release Semi and Green.

That would give us a roster of :
Kemba, Smart, Brown, Tatum, Turner
Pritchard, Langford, McDermott, G. Will, Theis
Edwards, Nesmith, Timelord

Are we in lux tax area, or are we below and how much could we spend and stay out of the lux tax ?

[ConstableGeneva]

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yes ATL out of the running. Another poster said it earlier, but if NYK can ink someone (FVV, etc.) that will completely erode any remaining leverage for Indy

Edit: Keith Smith just replied saying probably around 25 still, because they could sign Dunn using Room Exception

Yep, Dunn is likely an RME signing. Hawks still with 25M.