Hal’s Draft Thread

[Half-Full]

Never has so much been written about a draft pick that will never amount to anything

As I posted elsewhere, the odds of drafting an all-star player in the second round is approx 2.4%. The odds for a "decent" player is approx 7%. The odds of drafting a player that stays in the league 3 years is approx 26%. Those odds might be slightly better as many believe the draft is deeper than usual. So, not the best odds, but "never amount to anything"? We all know that the odds are long, but hope springs eternal, eh?

I'm done with hoping for the one guy that we happen to draft in the 2nd round turning into Ginobili. We've stashed guys, we've held onto a whole team of end-of-the-bench guys for a few years now. If this team is going to truly make a push then we need to stop looking for unicorns in the 2ndR and start finding younger vets that can fill holes on the roster and step in when needed. We have a bunch of midgets and a giant on the bench now and not one of them can help this team win.

I guess I'm being negative for wanting this team to give Tatum the tools he needs to get a banner

Yeah, but a second round pick is like a lottery ticket. It doesn't cost much (relatively speaking), but has the potential for a jackpot, or a lesser prize. Nobody is suggesting that drafting someone in the second round is the best path to another banner. Realistically that is not the likely outcome. There are many examples, however, of a second round pick proving to be a very good player. Indeed, one that might help a team to a banner. So why the negativity? Draft someone, hope for the best, and continue to explore paths that have a higher likelihood of bringing us banner 18. A trade for Beal? Sure. Signing veteran free agents? Yes. But, no need for the negative waves.

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[Andrew McCeltic]

Like, yeah you scout the second round thoroughly - you never know who you might hit on. They bring in obscure players for workouts every draft. Abdel Nader they’d apparently tracked since high school! But the collective intelligence of the NBA is not bad - guys go in the second round for a reason.

David Robinson was 6 ft PG in high school and went to Naval Academy because he wasn’t recruited. He then grew a foot and at age 22 was #1 pick in draft. Now that players are drafted at age 18-19 it’s surprising it doesn’t happen more often.

I would love for Madar to be a steal. Really hoping it happens but realistically it seems like a long shot. Giannis was still called the Greek freak in his league when he was projected as a late first rounder. Madar was MIP in Israel.....but he wasn’t MVP like Doncic. He seems like a solid but unspectacular prospect even over there. It will be a home run of a pick if he is almost as good as Shane Larson.

Tony Parker wasn't thought of very highly in France before he came over to the NBA either. I saw an article the other day where someone (who played with Parker in France prior to him coming to the NBA) was saying how shocked he was that Parker turned into a star over here.

You never know. All you can do is make the best projections you can based on the footage you see, the physical profile, the athleticism, the size, the translatable skills, the hustle/grit/motor, the character, etc.

Also, it doesn't have to be so black and white. It's like you're making it seem like every player is either going to be either a superstar like David Robinson/Doncic/Giannis and if not, then they flame out of the league like Shane Larkin. The more likely scenario is something in between..

It depends on the player. Most second-round picks don’t last long or have any impact. That’s true alongside the fact good scouting and luck can get you someone impactful. It’s just rare, and it’s a banner year if you get six rotation guys in the second..

[winsomme2]

A piece of the puzzle that is getting lost here IMO is that many here are saying that the talent in the this year's second round is first round caliber.

Now that may not end up holding true but it does change the importance of observations that begin "most second round picks...."

Again this may not end up being the case but it is why some (myself included) are paying extra attention to THIS year's second round.

[playa-hater]

Never has so much been written about a draft pick that will never amount to anything

One of my Biggest pet peeves are words that are absolutes like "never" "definitely" "always" when discussing anything that has not happened yet.

the odds are heavy that Madar will not be an elite player. And the odds are in favor of Madar not being around for a 2nd contract. But a defeated mentality like that probably stopped some teams from drafting a slow clumsy looking, out of shape player with no real overseas impact like our current NBA MVP Jokic.

how about we take a wait and see approach?

[playa-hater]

Definitely not as good as talking about Jaylen Brown for Dame for 300 pages lol back atcha

Somebody crunch the numbers for pick 45, it's gotta be like .01% of being a star.

I'm really passed entertaining Yam or anyone from round 2 being good. I'll keep my expectations very low. It can happen, but let's not get too excited lol.

1) Just a few 2nd round picks:

Jokic #41,
Ginobili #57
Patty Mills #55
Isaiah Thomas #60
Anthony Mason #53
Kyle Korver #51
Larry Kenon #50
Eddie Johnson #49
Marc Gasol #48
Paul Millsap #47
Jeff Hornacek #46
Bobby Dandridge #45
Michael Redd #42
George Gervin #40
Khris Middleton #39
Pat Connaughton #41
Jerami Grant #39

Undrafted
Bruce Bowen
Duncan Robinson

2) Madar would have likely been a 1st round pick in this year's draft. He was very unknown at this time last year, only averaged 10 PPG and 26% shooting from 3. But this year he improved that to 17 PPG and 41% from 3, and won his league's Most Improved Player award. He is much more well known now. Plus, international players often get drafted lower than they should.

3) This is a very deep draft, deeper than most years..there's 2 or 3 guys who will likely be available at 45th pick (Santi Aldama, Juhann Begarin and possibly Moses Wright) who IMO are just as good (if not better) than guys we would have been looking at taking with 16th pick if we didn't trade it.

way too lazy to look up. but Hal is right, there are many very good players drafted in the second rd not mentioned.

[playa-hater]

Feron Hunt

6'8" super athletic, good body control and hands, good rebounder

Watch on YouTube

good find..

[playa-hater]

I would love team to be able to get Isaiah Todd.

I think this kid not only has a lot of room to grow overall as a player, I also see him as a piece that can contribute right away. He is incomplete but he has a great shot and that is a skill that will translate and at a position of need.

If team needs some scoring/floor spacing off bench you go with Todd
If team needs some defense/toughness you go with Grant

Outside of him possibly going first round:

Dosonmu slated as a second round pick seems like a mistake. Kid is brimming with potential. Westbrook lite
EJ Onu is intriguing. High energy kid 6foot9 with a 7foot8 wingspan. Blocks shots and makes 3 pointers at 40%. NEeds to develop but loads of potential here.
lastly I really like Amar Sylla. Seems lazy to say this for him, but he projects as a clone of Siakam and Ibaka. Ibakas defense/shotblocking and rebounding and Siakams offense. Again he is raw and needs a year of development. But if he hits his ceiling he would be a very special player.

I haven't listed him in my top 5 for 45 because I expect he will be gone, but YES I would be all over Boston drafting him.

[playa-hater]

Watch on YouTube

Pascal Siakim part 2?? you never know!

[playa-hater]

My current big board: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16FvM9fQblHNUyRoyXVvweKDM2CyzJDYR0mxyAgCpn-U/edit?usp=sharing

at some point when I have more time I will do a better reply. do like the effort though.

[playa-hater]

Never has so much been written about a draft pick that will never amount to anything

As I posted elsewhere, the odds of drafting an all-star player in the second round is approx 2.4%. The odds for a "decent" player is approx 7%. The odds of drafting a player that stays in the league 3 years is approx 26%. Those odds might be slightly better as many believe the draft is deeper than usual. So, not the best odds, but "never amount to anything"? We all know that the odds are long, but hope springs eternal, eh?

I am surprised by this. too lazy to look up stats, but judging from the teams in these playoffs, it sure seems like more than 7% were playing that were second rd or even undrafted draft picks.

regardless, this draft in my opinion has way more talent in terms of depth that I can remember. wish we could remember to bring this up in a few years. So I can do the "I told YOU SOs"

[playa-hater]

Never has so much been written about a draft pick that will never amount to anything

As I posted elsewhere, the odds of drafting an all-star player in the second round is approx 2.4%. The odds for a "decent" player is approx 7%. The odds of drafting a player that stays in the league 3 years is approx 26%. Those odds might be slightly better as many believe the draft is deeper than usual. So, not the best odds, but "never amount to anything"? We all know that the odds are long, but hope springs eternal, eh?

I'm done with hoping for the one guy that we happen to draft in the 2nd round turning into Ginobili. We've stashed guys, we've held onto a whole team of end-of-the-bench guys for a few years now. If this team is going to truly make a push then we need to stop looking for unicorns in the 2ndR and start finding younger vets that can fill holes on the roster and step in when needed. We have a bunch of midgets and a giant on the bench now and not one of them can help this team win.

I guess I'm being negative for wanting this team to give Tatum the tools he needs to get a banner

Signing veterans over rookies is better, no debate. BUT we don't have the money/cap space for 5 vets. But we still have scrubs at least 5 scrubs to replace, such as Semi-T Waters-Edwards-Tacko (so sorry I said that) TT (yes I said that) Grant Williams (not a scrub, but not a real answer either) Romeo (who the hell knows??)

So one talented second rder doesn't hurt the team's age if they are replacing a C Edwards type of talent all while maybe getting a future solid contributor.

[playa-hater]

I actually agree, to some extent. We have so many (probably too many) players age 23 or younger as it is, especially with Moses Brown added to the team and Madar possibly making the team.

That's why my top 2 choices for who we should target with this pick are both guys who are likely to spend a year (maybe 2) stashed overseas or stashed on our G-League team but after that they both have super high upside / high ceiling, like really good potential. I have them both ranked as top 20 prospects in this class yet both will likely still be on the board at no. 45. Both sleeper picks who IMO could turn out to be the steal of the draft when it's all said and done.

So you can have your cake and eat it too. They wouldn't take up a roster spot next year (and possibly not the year after either) so we can fill out our roster with veterans, while at the same time we've got a guy stashed away developing, working on his game, working on his body so eventually he could end up being a damn good NBA player.

Those 2 guys are Juhann Begarin and Santi Aldama.

Vrenz Bleijenbergh, Isaiah Todd and Greg Brown also fit this description - guys who are young and raw but have super high upside / high ceiling so we could stash them (either overseas or on G league team) for 1, maybe even 2 yrs..

With that being said, if we trim some of the fat by getting rid of guys like Ojeleye, Edwards, Waters, Kornet, Fall (maybe even Parker and Thompson) now there's enough roster spots open for us to add some good veteran players AND add a solid player here with our 45th pick. This is a very deep draft. And after the first 5 or 10 players, the players ranked 11-50 for the most part are fairly interchangeable. So you could get a player with 45th pick who's actually just as good (if not better) than many of the players taken in the 1st round..

This is ridiculous. Yep, that's it.

Anything of substance to back up that opinion?

Keon Johnson is projected to go in the 8-15 range. IMO Begarin (projected to go in the 50-60 range) is better.

Isaiah Jackson is projected to go in the 10-25 range. IMO Aldama and Moses Wright (both projected in the 45-60 range) are both better.

I'm actually not the only one who has Aldama ranked in the top 20. But again, he's projected to go in the 45-60 range.

I've seen some people call Sengun the best player in the draft. Others have him ranked in the 30-35 range.

Some people have Davion Mitchell going 7th overall - others have him ranked in the 28-32 range.

Jay Bilas has Corey Kispert ranked 10th on his big board. Others who have a sharp basketball mind have him ranked in the 30-32 range.

Some folks who really know their sh*t have BJ Boston ranked as a top 15 player in this class - others have him slated to go early-mid 2nd round.

One expert has Jaden Springer ranked no. 36 while others have him in their top 10. I honestly think he has an argument for possibly being better than Jalen Suggs, who's projected to go in the top 4 picks.

I saw someone yesterday who had Kessler Edwards ranked 15th....and one expert who has him ranked 57th.

This draft is all over the place. There's a good chance that someone really good slips. Or you just nab a sleeper in the 2nd round who ends up being a top 15-20 player in the draft. That's all I'm saying..

I agree. For this draft at least. Not most other drafts.

[playa-hater]

If you are looking for quality late in the draft you should be looking for two things: first, a player who does one thing really well. and second, a player who wants to be good and is willing to put in the work. Nowadays every team has film and scouting reports on just about every player, but sometimes teams miss what is inside. Ime Udoka was a case in point.

Joe Ingles, Troy Hudson, Carl Braun (5 time all-star), Marquis Daniels, David Wesley, Darrell Armstrong, Raja Bell, Brad Miller, JJ Barea, Fred VanVleet, Wes Matthews, Avery Johnson, Udonis Haslem (18 years with the Heat), Bruce Bowen, John Starks and Ben Wallace (4 time all-star) all went UNdrafted but had very successful careers.

THIS POST just proved how valuable NON first rd picks can be. Damn it just scout them out the right way. Do your homework and maybe just maybe Boston can get one.

[playa-hater]

A piece of the puzzle that is getting lost here IMO is that many here are saying that the talent in the this year's second round is first round caliber.

Now that may not end up holding true but it does change the importance of observations that begin "most second round picks...."

Again this may not end up being the case but it is why some (myself included) are paying extra attention to THIS year's second round.

agreed 100%

[playa-hater]

May only be a mock, but someone is listening to me

https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/lists/2021-nba-mock-draft-roundtable-edition-all-60-picks-with-trades/

*TRADE* Boston Celtics (via Oklahoma City): Vrenz Bleijenbergh, Antwerp

Trade details: The Oklahoma City Thunder trade pick 36 to the Boston Celtics for Carsen Edwards, pick 45 and $1.8M in cash considerations.

Justin Quinn: Boston has been a fan of Bleijenbergh for some time now, a point forward who could slot into the Celtics rotation nicely as a depth piece with upside for more if his shot comes around. To be able to get Carsen Edwards to a team with minutes to develop him in the process should be a win for all involved, and the Thunder still get another bite at the apple in a relatively deep draft with No. 45.

[Hal14]

As I posted elsewhere, the odds of drafting an all-star player in the second round is approx 2.4%. The odds for a "decent" player is approx 7%. The odds of drafting a player that stays in the league 3 years is approx 26%. Those odds might be slightly better as many believe the draft is deeper than usual. So, not the best odds, but "never amount to anything"? We all know that the odds are long, but hope springs eternal, eh?

I'm done with hoping for the one guy that we happen to draft in the 2nd round turning into Ginobili. We've stashed guys, we've held onto a whole team of end-of-the-bench guys for a few years now. If this team is going to truly make a push then we need to stop looking for unicorns in the 2ndR and start finding younger vets that can fill holes on the roster and step in when needed. We have a bunch of midgets and a giant on the bench now and not one of them can help this team win.

I guess I'm being negative for wanting this team to give Tatum the tools he needs to get a banner

Signing veterans over rookies is better, no debate. BUT we don't have the money/cap space for 5 vets. But we still have scrubs at least 5 scrubs to replace, such as Semi-T Waters-Edwards-Tacko (so sorry I said that) TT (yes I said that) Grant Williams (not a scrub, but not a real answer either) Romeo (who the hell knows??)

So one talented second rder doesn't hurt the team's age if they are replacing a C Edwards type of talent all while maybe getting a future solid contributor.

Good point, Play hater. A good veteran player costs anywhere from $9-$40 mil a year. You scout well enough and land a good pick in the 2nd round, you're only paying him $1-$3 mil a year, and the contract is not guaranteed, you can cut him at anytime, so much less risk.

[Hal14]

May only be a mock, but someone is listening to me

https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/lists/2021-nba-mock-draft-roundtable-edition-all-60-picks-with-trades/

*TRADE* Boston Celtics (via Oklahoma City): Vrenz Bleijenbergh, Antwerp

Trade details: The Oklahoma City Thunder trade pick 36 to the Boston Celtics for Carsen Edwards, pick 45 and $1.8M in cash considerations.

Justin Quinn: Boston has been a fan of Bleijenbergh for some time now, a point forward who could slot into the Celtics rotation nicely as a depth piece with upside for more if his shot comes around. To be able to get Carsen Edwards to a team with minutes to develop him in the process should be a win for all involved, and the Thunder still get another bite at the apple in a relatively deep draft with No. 45.

I'd be onboard with that trade. Vrenz is kind of a project but man, the upside. If he just adds a little strength and develops his game a little more, he could really be good..

[playa-hater]

May only be a mock, but someone is listening to me

https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/lists/2021-nba-mock-draft-roundtable-edition-all-60-picks-with-trades/

*TRADE* Boston Celtics (via Oklahoma City): Vrenz Bleijenbergh, Antwerp

Trade details: The Oklahoma City Thunder trade pick 36 to the Boston Celtics for Carsen Edwards, pick 45 and $1.8M in cash considerations.

Justin Quinn: Boston has been a fan of Bleijenbergh for some time now, a point forward who could slot into the Celtics rotation nicely as a depth piece with upside for more if his shot comes around. To be able to get Carsen Edwards to a team with minutes to develop him in the process should be a win for all involved, and the Thunder still get another bite at the apple in a relatively deep draft with No. 45.

I'd be onboard with that trade. Vrenz is kind of a project but man, the upside. If he just adds a little strength and develops his game a little more, he could really be good..

more important than who was drafted (though I like) was just stating the possibility that Boston can trade up using money etc..

be aggressive and go for whomever they feel can be legit.

[Hal14]

What do you guys think about Matthew Hurt out of Duke at pick 45 ?

He's been brought up a couple times in this thread. I wasn't a fan before, but I'm starting to come around to him. He just seems to unathletic. But man, the skill and the fundamentals are impressive. The ability to shoot for a 6'10" kid is also impressive. I still think Aldama is better (because even though Hurt is a better shooter he's also a year older and Aldama has a better all around game and is 1 inch taller), but Hurt does look solid - like a Gallinari clone. Bigs who can shoot are valuable, indeed.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[LarryBirdsFingr]

this team does not need another young prospect that everyone else passed on in the 1st round. It'll be a project who'll spend all their time in Maine.

I actually agree, to some extent. We have so many (probably too many) players age 23 or younger as it is, especially with Moses Brown added to the team and Madar possibly making the team.

That's why my top 2 choices for who we should target with this pick are both guys who are likely to spend a year (maybe 2) stashed overseas or stashed on our G-League team but after that they both have super high upside / high ceiling, like really good potential. I have them both ranked as top 20 prospects in this class yet both will likely still be on the board at no. 45. Both sleeper picks who IMO could turn out to be the steal of the draft when it's all said and done.

So you can have your cake and eat it too. They wouldn't take up a roster spot next year (and possibly not the year after either) so we can fill out our roster with veterans, while at the same time we've got a guy stashed away developing, working on his game, working on his body so eventually he could end up being a damn good NBA player.

Those 2 guys are Juhann Begarin and Santi Aldama.

Vrenz Bleijenbergh, Isaiah Todd and Greg Brown also fit this description - guys who are young and raw but have super high upside / high ceiling so we could stash them (either overseas or on G league team) for 1, maybe even 2 yrs..

With that being said, if we trim some of the fat by getting rid of guys like Ojeleye, Edwards, Waters, Kornet, Fall (maybe even Parker and Thompson) now there's enough roster spots open for us to add some good veteran players AND add a solid player here with our 45th pick. This is a very deep draft. And after the first 5 or 10 players, the players ranked 11-50 for the most part are fairly interchangeable. So you could get a player with 45th pick who's actually just as good (if not better) than many of the players taken in the 1st round..

This is ridiculous. Yep, that's it.

Absolutely ludicrous analysis.