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Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold?

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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#161 » by grindtime22 » Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:55 pm

cloverleaf wrote:
grindtime22 wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
Why say that? He's still more than a year to go on his rookie contract and only got to start and play big minutes in the last month? He's got a really smooth shot.


Yeah, I don't question his shooting at all. Disregard the game last night. He is a good 3 point shooter regardless. That is the least of his worries. He hits them at a good rate. He is good off the dribble and a really good catch and shoot 3 point guy. His 3 point shooting doesn't happen in the corners either. It is almost all above the break.

Rozier's paint game is the big worry. He has improved every year, but still has a LONG way to go in the paint. That will determine if he goes from bench spark scorer to true efficient scorer. He is 42% from 2 point range (not FG%, but 2pt%). He is 53% within 3 feet, 31% from 3-10, 42% from 10-16, and 36% on long 2s).

Even on Rozier's current tear (since that initial triple double in 1st start), his 2pt % isn't sky high. It's at 41.5%, while his 3pt% is at 44.6%.


His improvement, year-to-year and now month-to-month with more time, has been so great that that one hole still in his game should not be considered irreparable. Especially given his athleticism and skills, including his handle. I'd be shocked if he doesn't improve in that significantly by next year.


No doubt. He has improved from every area range y1 to yr2 to yr3. There is no reason to think he won't continue that improvement.
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#162 » by celtxman » Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:16 pm

MrClass wrote:ainge cant draft BTW. :lol:
I think he has been decent in drafting,not great, but you certainly cannot credit him for taking Rozier and not give him blame for passing on Giannis. That's a hard miss to swallow . But he definitely did a great job getting Tatum.
Rozier has turned the corner and I think will be valuable either as a Celtic or a chip
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#163 » by SMTBSI » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:18 pm

Seems like a fair time to break this one out again.

September 30th 2016, pre-season predictions thread, before the start of his sophomore year, after a rookie year of 311 minutes played and negative/abysmal stats across the board:

SMTBSI wrote:Terry Rozier is going to be very good to great. May make IT expendable, may coexist, I don't know. But, he'll be one of the top 2-3 players on this team at some point.


Still a long ways to go to get to a level that matches the spirit of what I meant. But, on a technicality, he's making a case for top-3 among the currently available bodies. :wink:
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#164 » by GregB » Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:19 pm

Rozier is giving me that Oladipo vibe. I think he will end up being much more expensive than Marcus. I can see us moving Terry if we can get good value in the offseason.
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#165 » by LuckyLeprechaun » Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:37 pm

GregB wrote:Rozier is giving me that Oladipo vibe. I think he will end up being much more expensive than Marcus. I can see us moving Terry if we can get good value in the offseason.


You may be on to something.

Rozier 3rd season per 36:
FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
5.6 13.9 .406 2.7 7.0 .390 2.9 6.9 .423 2.0 2.6 .763 1.1 5.4 6.5 3.8 1.5 0.3 1.4 2.2 16.0

Oladipo 3rd season per 36:
FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
6.4 14.7 .438 1.5 4.3 .348 4.9 10.4 .475 3.1 3.7 .830 0.7 4.5 5.2 4.3 1.8 0.8 2.3 2.6 17.4
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#166 » by BfB » Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:46 pm

Gomes3PC wrote:If Rozier could ever learn to finish in the paint, he'd be a borderline All Star. Great defender, can get by his man, and his 3 point shot is rock solid. He's not going to be confused for CP3 as a passer but totally fine there for a "lead guard" in the NBA.


Absolutely, but he has improved consistently in this area over time. Dunking when he can is a good start, but I’d like to see more floaters in the paint vs attempts at basket in situations where the interior help is already there.

A lot of those finishing struggles are self inflicted imo due to simple, improvable decision-making


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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#167 » by Gant » Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:50 pm

GregB wrote:Rozier is giving me that Oladipo vibe. I think he will end up being much more expensive than Marcus. I can see us moving Terry if we can get good value in the offseason.


Wyc n' Steve have monetized every molecule of the organization. With a title on the line, they should be willing to spend and even overspend on talent like this.
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#168 » by TMU » Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:58 pm

He's somewhat of a Steven's product, but I think he's a good enough player to start for a handful of teams. With his development, Smart is fully expendable. You guys should look for a D and 3 guy this offseason to enhance bench scoring while minimally offsetting Smart's defense.
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#169 » by jirrit » Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:10 pm

TMU wrote:He's somewhat of a Steven's product, but I think he's a good enough player to start for a handful of teams. With his development, Smart is fully expendable. You guys should look for a D and 3 guy this offseason to enhance bench scoring while minimally offsetting Smart's defense.

I see Smart still as very important glue and I'd prefer to hold onto him. Dont think there will be a crazy market for him either.
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#170 » by Cyclical » Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:28 am

cloverleaf wrote:
Cyclical wrote:Yes.

Terry can be a starter in this league. He'll probably always be an inconsistent shooter but supreme confidence and athleticism can make up for a lot.


Why say that? He's still more than a year to go on his rookie contract and only got to start and play big minutes in the last month? He's got a really smooth shot.


Because he's a volume shooter. His style of play does not revolve around a particularly thoughtful shot selection. He lets it go Antoine Walker style, obviously has the green light from Brad, and sometimes gets hot. The more minutes, the more shot attempts, the more chances to get hot.

Last 5 games:
4-16
12-16
4-14
5-15
6-16

Don't get me wrong, I LOVE Terry's game, just saying he's more of a scorer than a shooter.
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#171 » by cloverleaf » Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:04 am

Cyclical wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
Cyclical wrote:Yes.

Terry can be a starter in this league. He'll probably always be an inconsistent shooter but supreme confidence and athleticism can make up for a lot.


Why say that? He's still more than a year to go on his rookie contract and only got to start and play big minutes in the last month? He's got a really smooth shot.


Because he's a volume shooter. His style of play does not revolve around a particularly thoughtful shot selection. He lets it go Antoine Walker style, obviously has the green light from Brad, and sometimes gets hot. The more minutes, the more shot attempts, the more chances to get hot.

Last 5 games:
4-16
12-16
4-14
5-15
6-16

Don't get me wrong, I LOVE Terry's game, just saying he's more of a scorer than a shooter.


He's got an incredibly sweet shot and his 3pt% proves he's a shooter. That is why they encourage him to be aggressive shooting. And his shot selection may improve over time but really isn't a problem. He still mostly just needs to improve his finishing at the basket. In 12 years in the league Toine never shot the 3 close to as well as TRo has shot it, at a high volume, this season.
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#172 » by SichtingLives » Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:48 am

He's already the best Rozier in Celtic history
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#173 » by Cyclical » Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:39 pm

cloverleaf wrote:
Cyclical wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
Why say that? He's still more than a year to go on his rookie contract and only got to start and play big minutes in the last month? He's got a really smooth shot.


Because he's a volume shooter. His style of play does not revolve around a particularly thoughtful shot selection. He lets it go Antoine Walker style, obviously has the green light from Brad, and sometimes gets hot. The more minutes, the more shot attempts, the more chances to get hot.

Last 5 games:
4-16
12-16
4-14
5-15
6-16

Don't get me wrong, I LOVE Terry's game, just saying he's more of a scorer than a shooter.


He's got an incredibly sweet shot and his 3pt% proves he's a shooter. That is why they encourage him to be aggressive shooting. And his shot selection may improve over time but really isn't a problem. He still mostly just needs to improve his finishing at the basket. In 12 years in the league Toine never shot the 3 close to as well as TRo has shot it, at a high volume, this season.


I hope you're right but I don't see it. Nothing is proven yet. He's still just a 40% shooter overall - that does not a "shooter" make. That's a guy who shoots a lot of 35% games and every once in a while gives you 60% to up the average. Terry is, so far, the very definition of streaky. Agreed, his 3-pt shot is looking sweet lately and may very well become reliable (I definitely hope so) but anything inside the arc is ugly, and he simply takes some wild ass nonsensical shots, hence the Toine comparison - yes, they're obviously different players and I sure hope his overall shooting will become better than Toine's pathetic career numbers.

I think we're both rooting for him regardless.
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#174 » by cloverleaf » Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:12 pm

Cyclical wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
Cyclical wrote:
Because he's a volume shooter. His style of play does not revolve around a particularly thoughtful shot selection. He lets it go Antoine Walker style, obviously has the green light from Brad, and sometimes gets hot. The more minutes, the more shot attempts, the more chances to get hot.

Last 5 games:
4-16
12-16
4-14
5-15
6-16

Don't get me wrong, I LOVE Terry's game, just saying he's more of a scorer than a shooter.


He's got an incredibly sweet shot and his 3pt% proves he's a shooter. That is why they encourage him to be aggressive shooting. And his shot selection may improve over time but really isn't a problem. He still mostly just needs to improve his finishing at the basket. In 12 years in the league Toine never shot the 3 close to as well as TRo has shot it, at a high volume, this season.


I hope you're right but I don't see it. Nothing is proven yet. He's still just a 40% shooter overall - that does not a "shooter" make. That's a guy who shoots a lot of 35% games and every once in a while gives you 60% to up the average. Terry is, so far, the very definition of streaky. Agreed, his 3-pt shot is looking sweet lately and may very well become reliable (I definitely hope so) but anything inside the arc is ugly, and he simply takes some wild ass nonsensical shots, hence the Toine comparison - yes, they're obviously different players and I sure hope his overall shooting will become better than Toine's pathetic career numbers.

I think we're both rooting for him regardless.


Overall shooting percentage is at best misleading in the modern NBA. A 40% shooter who only shoots 3s, for example, is very efficient. TRo is attempting more 3s than 2s this season. And yes, still has room to improve in his finishing at the basket. Among the hardest things to expect in the NBA is for a young guy to be consistent coming off the bench. Given more opportunity, TRo has been quite notably consistent in his high level of play:

Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter


Also, how many games in a row has TRo now scored in double digits? Is it 22 or 23? Isn't he the first C to do that on his rookie contract since Paul Pierce?
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#175 » by Theocy » Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:22 pm

cloverleaf wrote:
Cyclical wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
He's got an incredibly sweet shot and his 3pt% proves he's a shooter. That is why they encourage him to be aggressive shooting. And his shot selection may improve over time but really isn't a problem. He still mostly just needs to improve his finishing at the basket. In 12 years in the league Toine never shot the 3 close to as well as TRo has shot it, at a high volume, this season.


I hope you're right but I don't see it. Nothing is proven yet. He's still just a 40% shooter overall - that does not a "shooter" make. That's a guy who shoots a lot of 35% games and every once in a while gives you 60% to up the average. Terry is, so far, the very definition of streaky. Agreed, his 3-pt shot is looking sweet lately and may very well become reliable (I definitely hope so) but anything inside the arc is ugly, and he simply takes some wild ass nonsensical shots, hence the Toine comparison - yes, they're obviously different players and I sure hope his overall shooting will become better than Toine's pathetic career numbers.

I think we're both rooting for him regardless.


Overall shooting percentage is at best misleading in the modern NBA. A 40% shooter who only shoots 3s, for example, is very efficient. TRo is attempting more 3s than 2s this season. And yes, still has room to improve in his finishing at the basket. Among the hardest things to expect in the NBA is for a young guy to be consistent coming off the bench. Given more opportunity, TRo has been quite notably consistent in his high level of play:

Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter


he is averaging those numbers in what 5 games? come on seriously let's get real with the idiotic statistics. He's growing but saying he makes a fraction of what those guys make is just plain stoopid.

Also I'm sure i can build a cluster of data analytics in which terry is only comparable with MJ and KB. this makes no practical sense at all.
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#176 » by cloverleaf » Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:28 pm

Theocy wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
Cyclical wrote:
I hope you're right but I don't see it. Nothing is proven yet. He's still just a 40% shooter overall - that does not a "shooter" make. That's a guy who shoots a lot of 35% games and every once in a while gives you 60% to up the average. Terry is, so far, the very definition of streaky. Agreed, his 3-pt shot is looking sweet lately and may very well become reliable (I definitely hope so) but anything inside the arc is ugly, and he simply takes some wild ass nonsensical shots, hence the Toine comparison - yes, they're obviously different players and I sure hope his overall shooting will become better than Toine's pathetic career numbers.

I think we're both rooting for him regardless.


Overall shooting percentage is at best misleading in the modern NBA. A 40% shooter who only shoots 3s, for example, is very efficient. TRo is attempting more 3s than 2s this season. And yes, still has room to improve in his finishing at the basket. Among the hardest things to expect in the NBA is for a young guy to be consistent coming off the bench. Given more opportunity, TRo has been quite notably consistent in his high level of play:

Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter


he is averaging those numbers in what 5 games? come on seriously let's get real with the idiotic statistics. He's growing but saying he makes a fraction of what those guys make is just plain stoopid.

Also I'm sure i can build a cluster of data analytics in which terry is only comparable with MJ and KB. this makes no practical sense at all.


You're quick in reply (if misguided therein). But wasn't the stat also thrown around this week that he was the first Celtic player on a rookie contract to score in double digits for 22 consecutive games--since Paul Pierce?

I think you're just making up some ridiculous standard to try to judge him against, for whatever reason.
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#177 » by Theocy » Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:36 pm

cloverleaf wrote:
Theocy wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
Overall shooting percentage is at best misleading in the modern NBA. A 40% shooter who only shoots 3s, for example, is very efficient. TRo is attempting more 3s than 2s this season. And yes, still has room to improve in his finishing at the basket. Among the hardest things to expect in the NBA is for a young guy to be consistent coming off the bench. Given more opportunity, TRo has been quite notably consistent in his high level of play:

Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter


he is averaging those numbers in what 5 games? come on seriously let's get real with the idiotic statistics. He's growing but saying he makes a fraction of what those guys make is just plain stoopid.

Also I'm sure i can build a cluster of data analytics in which terry is only comparable with MJ and KB. this makes no practical sense at all.


You're quick in reply (if misguided therein). But wasn't the stat also thrown around this week that he was the first Celtic player on a rookie contract to score in double digits for 22 consecutive games--since Paul Pierce?

I think you're just making up some ridiculous standard to try to judge him against, for whatever reason.


Let's get soemthing clear. I absolutely love scary terry. yes? I'm just fed up with the recent trend of trying to cluster all players in a group of 'X player in question - scary Terry' and future HOFs - Lebron Durant etc . Honestly mate I'm a data scientist and this is absurd. I can do that for any given player. Anyone. The trick is to start filtering your data in such a way as to make sure that you are left in a small group of all-stars and your guy. I can probably do that with Jordan mickey too :lol: . ie add points rebounds assists with minimum cutoff Terry's numbers. Of course there's only a small group above that. The permutations are endless there's abound to be one solution to your problem that looks nice!

I did say he is growing and he is showing excellent potential. 1 month ago i said we could get an Oladipo breakout season from him. Love him. To bits.

But the statistics is just plain stoopid. He isn;t a bargain. He is a rookie. (logical fallacy). all rookies get bargain salaries.
The stats clustering makes no sense. This is all i am saying.
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#178 » by cloverleaf » Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:38 pm

Oh, look: there's this, too:

Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#179 » by cloverleaf » Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:40 pm

Theocy wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
Theocy wrote:
he is averaging those numbers in what 5 games? come on seriously let's get real with the idiotic statistics. He's growing but saying he makes a fraction of what those guys make is just plain stoopid.

Also I'm sure i can build a cluster of data analytics in which terry is only comparable with MJ and KB. this makes no practical sense at all.


You're quick in reply (if misguided therein). But wasn't the stat also thrown around this week that he was the first Celtic player on a rookie contract to score in double digits for 22 consecutive games--since Paul Pierce?

I think you're just making up some ridiculous standard to try to judge him against, for whatever reason.


Let's get soemthing clear. I absolutely love scary terry. yes? I'm just fed up with the recent trend of trying to cluster all players in a group of 'X player in question - scary Terry' and future HOFs - Lebron Durant etc . Honestly mate I'm a data scientist and this is absurd. I can do that for any given player. Anyone. The trick is to start filtering your data in such a way as to make sure that you are left in a small group of all-stars and your guy. I can probably do that with Jordan mickey too :lol: . ie add points rebounds assists with minimum cutoff Terry's numbers. Of course there's only a small group above that. The permutations are endless there's abound to be one solution to your problem that looks nice!

I did say he is growing and he is showing excellent potential. 1 month ago i said we could get an Oladipo breakout season from him. Love him. To bits.

But the statistics is just plain stoopid. He isn;t a bargain. He is a rookie. (logical fallacy). all rookies get bargain salaries.
The stats clustering makes no sense. This is all i am saying.


Only an idiot of a data scientist would try to apply statistically valid sample techniques to commentary on athletes' in season, and often game to game, performances. Nobody but such an idiotic data scientist would take such context as claiming that a rookie contract player is as good as clear HoFers off a single game performance. Jeesh!!!
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Re: Has Rozier finally broken out or is it fools gold? 

Post#180 » by DarkAzcura » Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:41 pm

I argued with someone else about Rozier on another forum off this site. Some people have a weird dislike for this kid. In this guy's view Rozier was lousy and bench fodder simply because he couldn't finish at the rim while ignoring his low turnover rate, shooting ability on the catch and off the dribble, and overall defensive ability. It all meant nothing just because he struggles at the rim, lol.

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