Post#1639 » by Elrod is Back » Thu Jan 8, 2015 6:28 pm
A Game Plan for NBA Contention, 2018 and beyond
I had some time to kill this morning; if you don't have time skip this post.
Let’s start with a few assumptions:
1. The Cs are unlikely to contend before the 2017-18 season at the very earliest. We may get better before then, we may make the playoffs, we may have a winning team, but we will not be serious contenders. It took four full seasons of rebuilding for Danny between 2003-07, and then he succeeded because the stars were in alignment for Kevin Garnett.
2. The Cs are unlikely to attract serious free agents before 2018, and after 2018 they probably will have no capspace to pay for serious free agents. We will not use free agency to get a superstar.
3. Instead, we will use trades and the draft. And our primary assets for a successful trade down the road will be future no. 1 draft picks.
4. Therefore accruing future no. 1 picks is still a high priority. We cannot have too many, especially if they are spread out over the next five or six years.
5. In addition, we should not exaggerate the need for having lots of room under the cap. Having capspace for the next year or two is primarily valuable not to sign a bigtime free agent, but, rather, to take a lame-ass bogus contract from a team looking to create their own capspace and/or avoid the luxury tax. In exchange for taking said lame-ass bogus contracts we get additional no. 1 picks down the road.
6. Our goal for the next two seasons should be simply to avoid the luxury tax as we do this year. Otherwise fill it up with lame-ass bogus contracts if it leads to more no. 1 picks down the road.
7. The salary cap is going to expand considerably over the next two years, which means we have little to fear in terms of the luxury tax. It also means that the time to strike is right now, before teams get relief.
8. We have a pile of no. 2 picks in the next two drafts—seven in all—and there is no way we can use all of them, since we have a young roster and six no. 1 picks in the next two drafts! It would be wise to use several of these no. 2 picks in trades that will make it easier to pry no. 1 picks away from teams further down the road.
9. The Cs currently have four players who will be free agents in Jul—I assume Jeff Green will decline his option and enter the free agent market—and have no future with the team. They need to go as soon as possible to: 1) get whatever assets we can in return; 2) clear them from the roster so Brad Stevens can play the kids who are part of the future. It is tough and morale-killing to bench veterans when they are as good as the kids and the team is losing. So trade them. If we can’t trade them, release any remaining except Green after the trade deadline.
10. We have two players with contracts extending through 2016, Evan Turner and Jameer Nelson. Try to move them if at all possible. Their salaries are low and they have value, so it should be possible.
11. Don’t worry if the team sucks this season. It is a very good lottery, 10-12 deep with really talented players. Let’s get one of them. Let’s pray the Thunder finally get hot and the Clipper slump. We also will have two high no. 2 picks (and a low no. 2 courtesy of Washington.) Those first two second rounders should produce good prospects or have great trade value as we approach draft day. We could, for example, use them to move up the Clippers pick five places in the first round, or trade them both to Sacramento for a future protected no. 1. Or keep them.
So if one accepts these assumptions Danny has a lot to do between now and the trade deadline. We can all waste our days with the trade checker. Here is an example of what we could do. (I am sure there may be better ones, and I have compete faith that Danny will find the very best deals available.)
In the trades I err on the side of making the trades more favorable to the other team, or at least I try to.
FIRST TRADE: Jameer Nelson and the 2016 Cleveland and Dallas/Memphis second rounders we possess to Cleveland for Brandon Hayward.
Why does Cleveland do it? The Cavs need a back-up point guard in the worst way and Nelson is exactly what the doctor ordered. They also could use some draft picks to replenish their account.
Why does Boston do it? In July Hayward’s contract is for one year at $10 million but it is completely unguaranteed until August 1, 2015. The Cs can use it to take another bad contract in the summer and get another no. 1 pick. It will be difficult for Cleveland to use Hayward’s contract in a deal in summer 2015 unless they want to go very deep into luxury tax land.
SECOND TRADE: Brandon Bass, returning the Wizards 2015 pick to them, and the C’s Miami 2016 second round pick to the Wizards for Martell Webster, a minimum salary guy to make the deal work who is immediately released, and Washington’s 2018 no. 1 pick, top 10 protected until 2021, when it is top 3 protected. If the Cs do not get it by 2021, they get the Wizards 2021 second round pick.
Why does Washington do this? It needs to dump salary and Webster is owed $5.6 million next year and guaranteed $2.5 million in 2016-17. Bass is a very serviceable veteran and is off the books come July.
THIRD TRADE: Jeff Green to Memphis for Tayshaun Prince, Vince Carter and a no. 1 pick two years after Memphis has conveyed its no. 1 to Denver, meaning it will probably be in 2019. I would let the pick have top 7 protection in 2019 and 2010 and be unprotected in 2021.
FOURTH TRADE: Brandan Wright and the Cs Philadelphia’s 2016 no. 1 pick to Portland for Thomas Robinson’s expiring deal and Portland’s 2018 no. 1 pick, top 10 protected until 2021, when it is unprotected.
Why does Portland do it? Wright is a perfect fit in the western conference arms race as an off-the-bench dude. The Philly pick is likely to be high in the second round, and Portland’s no. 1 is likely to be low.
FIFTH TRADE: Marcus Thornton and Evan Turner to New Orleans for Eric Gordon and New Orleans 2017 no. 1 pick.
Why does New Orleans do it? Thornton and Turner are an upgrade at positions of need and they lose Gordon’s horrible $15 million salary in 2015-16. The Pelicans really need capspace.
So when the dust clears, what do the Cs look like for the balance of the season?
5—Zeller, Olynyk, Hayward
4—Sullinger, Olynyk, Robinson
3—Crowder, Wallace, Webster
2—Bradley, Young, Gordon, Carter
1—Smart, Pressey
Carter and Webster would be likely immediate buy-out candidates. Robinson and Hayward are goners after the season.
In the 2015 draft, the Cs would have two no. 1 picks, and two high no. 2 picks.
The Cs would have a payroll of around $61 million in 2015-16 after the four draft choices are signed, assuming the Cs pick where are in the standings today. If the Cs “stretch” both Wallace and Gordon, the payroll figure would be as low as $44 million, though that means in subsequent years the payroll would be higher.
In the summer of 2015, the Cs would have Hayward’s unguaranteed contract to dangle to take back a bad contract and get another no. 1. It could do so in such a way to avoid the luxury tax.
Then in the fall the Cs have Rondo’s $13 million exception to do more of the same.
So the Cs go into the 2015-2016 season with a young roster to get all the playing time and the following draft choice picture:
2016: 4 first rounders
2017: 2 first rounders (and right for Boston or swap with Brooklyn)
2018: 4 first rounders
2019: 2 first rounders
Plus what we get for Hayward and the Rondo exception.
By the summer of 2016 we have a nice young nucleus and the resources to trade for whatever we want or need. It may not mean that we trade the picks for a player; just as likely we bundle picks together to move toward the top of the draft to get a guy Danny is in love with, and who fits with what we already have. Or we trade out of the draft for future no. 1 picks so we do not clog up our roster with too may rookies and 2nd year players.
