What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

zoyathedestroya · Post #1701 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:59 pm

I'm sure TC's already mentioned this somewhere before -- lineups with Tatum but without the other four starters have outscored opponents by 16.5 points per 100 possessions. Small sample obvy but would have #1 offensive rating and #1 defensive rating.

Post #1702 » by **Feed Your Head** » Thu Mar 10, 2022 11:19 pm

zoyathedestroya wrote:I'm sure TC's already mentioned this somewhere before -- lineups with Tatum but without the other four starters have outscored opponents by 16.5 points per 100 possessions. Small sample obvy but would have #1 offensive rating and #1 defensive rating.

With Tatum on the court without any of them, they have a +17.76 net rating, in 164 minutes. With Tatum on the court without Smart/Rob/Jaylen, the team has 14.61 net rating, and it’s 331 minutes. It’s just absurd, he’s SO good lol.

And something I know you were probably thinking, because I sure as hell was.

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1st banana · Post #1703 » by **1st banana** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 8:18 am

Tatums shooting splits now at 44/34/85 only gonna go higher.

zoyathedestroya · Post #1704 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:40 pm

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zoyathedestroya · Post #1705 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:58 pm

Since trade deadline, Tatum's putting up 32.7/7.2/4.5 on 49/39/89 splits. 33% USG, 63.2% TS, 15.4 NetRtg.

Coincidentally, team is 9-2, 2nd in offensive rating, 2nd in defensive rating, 1st in net rating in that span while beating teams with top-tier players like Morant, Jokic, Embiid, Trae, KD, and Saddiq Bey.

(I should've' posted this in the Dennis Schroder Appreciation Thread.)

Gomes3PC · Post #1706 » by **Gomes3PC** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 2:08 pm

If you look at Tatum's performance over the last 60 days, he's basically playing at the best level of his career based on advanced stats (check out the Historical Career Trajectory on DARKO - https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO/). If he can sustain this level of play (maybe a bit aggressive), he's legitimately a top-5 guy in the league. Not quite at the Giannis/Jokic/Embiid level but right in the Curry/Bron/Durant level.

Post #1707 » by **darrendaye** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 2:30 pm

I really resist making "can someone do the work" posts, but....
Anyone interested in posting passing/assist type statistical analysis for year and post Schroder (or other timeframe that helps paint a picture?

His APG and A/T ratio is ever so slightly down from last year, but curious about his playmaking progress beyond observational evaluation.

Post #1708 » by **Feed Your Head** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 2:54 pm

darrendaye wrote:I really resist making "can someone do the work" posts, but....
Anyone interested in posting passing/assist type statistical analysis for year and post Schroder (or other timeframe that helps paint a picture?

His APG and A/T ratio is ever so slightly down from last year, but curious about his playmaking progress beyond observational evaluation.

For the year his assist rate is 20.4% and his TO rate is 10.8. Since the deadline, his assist rate is 21.1%, and the TO rate is 9.5. For comparison, last year his assist rate was 20.3%, and a 10.4% TO.

Now there’s deeper reasons why the assist rate is only slightly up. First off, he’s running PnR 21.5% of the time this year, last year it was 28.8%. That’s where players do a majority of their playmaking from.

Another lesser talked about reason, he’s getting doubled 6 times less this season. Last year he got doubled over 20 times a game, this year Luka leads the league at 18.2, for comparison sake. Tatum is 12th in the league, at 13.9, only Giannis and Embiid get more amongst non guards. This is for multiple reasons, we have a much better supporting cast this season, and then Tatum is getting so good at passing out of them, teams are just doing it less.

Last thing I’ve noticed as far as him and passing, we have a MUCH better passing team, so it’s not just Tatum hitting guys for open threes, it leads to more ball movement, hence why we’re seeing more hockey assists.

playa-hater · Post #1709 » by **playa-hater** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 3:59 pm

zoyathedestroya wrote:Since trade deadline, Tatum's putting up 32.7/7.2/4.5 on 49/39/89 splits. 33% USG, 63.2% TS, 15.4 NetRtg.

Coincidentally, team is 9-2, 2nd in offensive rating, 2nd in defensive rating, 1st in net rating in that span while beating teams with top-tier players like Morant, Jokic, Embiid, Trae, KD, and Saddiq Bey.

(I should've' posted this in the Dennis Schroder Appreciation Thread.)

Those splits would be hard to sustain all year for anyone. But those splits (plus high level defense) can only be done by a player who has a LEGIT chance to be TOP player in the league one day.

I think I believed in Tatum far more than most .. Ex. been saying he is better than Luka forever when at a time most would LOL at that. Yet I never gave it much thought that Tatum could be the TOP player. I now believe he can. Still a way to go. Giannis is a freak and still young, but Tatum has "take-over ability" and ever improving playmaking that may help put him there with the Freak.

Either way so pumped for Tatum right now.

Post #1710 » by **Feed Your Head** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:18 pm

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31to6 · Post #1711 » by **31to6** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 5:13 pm

Will Tatum ever average 30ppg for a season?
(yes, in Boston, he is spending his entire career in Boston)

I say 'no' because he and JB will work out a more long-term partnership than Bird and prime McHale, who really was only around for a handful of seasons.

sam_I_am · Post #1712 » by **sam_I_am** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 6:34 pm

Is it time to admit that Tatum is already looking like he has a good chance to become the 3rd best Celtic in history? Right now Bill Russell and Larry Bird stand above the other Celtic greats as only multi-season MVPs. Hondo, McHale, Pierce, Cousy, Cowens, Sam Jones had great careers but isn’t Tatum starting to show he is even better despite not even at the peak of his abilities? I know this is borderline heresy but people said the similar things about Larry Legend this early in his career too..

Post #1713 » by **Feed Your Head** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 6:53 pm

Am I still a hater for thinking Tatum is multiple tiers ahead of anyone else on this team?

Just curious, for future reference.

Jaqua92 · Post #1714 » by **Jaqua92** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 6:59 pm

31to6 wrote:Will Tatum ever average 30ppg for a season?
(yes, in Boston, he is spending his entire career in Boston)

I say 'no' because he and JB will work out a more long-term partnership than Bird and prime McHale, who really was only around for a handful of seasons.

This is a very very very very difficult ponder isn't it?

I think it depends on if an increase in volume is necessary for 30ppg, or if he's capable of eventually increasing effeciency without the increase in volume.

I think he's capable of it, and I do think it's something he wants to do. But not at the expense of winning basketball. If he's averaging 29ppg for the first half of the season, I'd bet he'd be striving for it.

The question is...again, will it be necessary for him to increase his volume beyond what it is now, assuming he doesn't increase effeciency? It probably won't.

The 30ppg is dependent on how effecient he can be. He's at 26.9ppg right now, on sub career average effeciency, and way sub career average 3pt effeciency.

If Tatum is shooting at his career average splits, he'd probably be neck and neck with Embiid for the scoring title. If he made just one more 3 per game this season, he'd be at 30 ppg.

So I think he will do it, at some point.

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sam_I_am · Post #1715 » by **sam_I_am** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 7:05 pm

31to6 wrote:Will Tatum ever average 30ppg for a season?
(yes, in Boston, he is spending his entire career in Boston)

I say 'no' because he and JB will work out a more long-term partnership than Bird and prime McHale, who really was only around for a handful of seasons.

Hondo came close once when he took a whopping 24.5 shots per game. Bird practically did it in 1987 on 22 shots per game. I think Tatum could do it on 22 shots if he and team continue to play unselfishly like they are now and he gets his 3 pt average above 38%. Right now he is averaging 27 ppg on 21 shots.

IT is second in team history with 28+ on 19 shots which is remarkable. Pierce averaged 27 ppg on 18 shots in 2006.

Smart2Nesmith43 · Post #1716 » by **Smart2Nesmith43** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 7:31 pm

sam_I_am wrote:Is it time to admit that Tatum is already looking like he has a good chance to become the 3rd best Celtic in history? Right now Bill Russell and Larry Bird stand above the other Celtic greats as only multi-season MVPs. Hondo, McHale, Pierce, Cousy, Cowens, Sam Jones had great careers but isn’t Tatum starting to show he is even better despite not even at the peak of his abilities? I know this is borderline heresy but people said the similar things about Larry Legend this early in his career too..

Let's hope that's where he ends up but it's just far too early to be talking about that. Havlicek has 11 All NBA teams, 8 titles and 8 all defensive teams (he actually never missed the all defensive teams during his career because they didn't have them earlier on). During his two year peak he was averaging like 28/9/8 while missing a single game across both years.

NBA players with 26k points, 8k rebounds, 6k assists in their career:
LeBron James
John Havlicek
End of list

In the eight years he played without Russell he has 2 titles, 1 Finals MVP and 3 additional trips to the Eastern Conference Finals. He also has a NCAA title. Put some respect on his name.

Captain_Caveman · Post #1717 » by **Captain_Caveman** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:09 pm

The Comedian wrote:Am I still a hater for thinking Tatum is multiple tiers ahead of anyone else on this team?

Just curious, for future reference.

Only people who argued that were Jaylenstans.

Captain_Caveman · Post #1718 » by **Captain_Caveman** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:10 pm

31to6 wrote:Will Tatum ever average 30ppg for a season?
(yes, in Boston, he is spending his entire career in Boston)

I say 'no' because he and JB will work out a more long-term partnership than Bird and prime McHale, who really was only around for a handful of seasons.

17 titles, 0 scoring champions.

Let's keep it that way. Tatum's path to leveling up involves better playmaking and to a lesser extent defense.

31to6 · Post #1719 » by **31to6** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:14 pm

Captain_Caveman wrote:
31to6 wrote:Will Tatum ever average 30ppg for a season?
(yes, in Boston, he is spending his entire career in Boston)

I say 'no' because he and JB will work out a more long-term partnership than Bird and prime McHale, who really was only around for a handful of seasons.

17 titles, 0 scoring champions.

Let's keep it that way. Tatum's path to leveling up involves better playmaking and to a lesser extent defense.

I agree that stats are for the Lakers.

I guess another way to phrase my question would've been "will Tatum always wait until February to go supernova?" (if that seems like an implied criticism of him, it's not, I'm fine with this but yeah would love to see him settle in at something like 28/8/6)

BK_2020 · Post #1720 » by **BK_2020** » Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:48 pm

sam_I_am wrote:Is it time to admit that Tatum is already looking like he has a good chance to become the 3rd best Celtic in history? Right now Bill Russell and Larry Bird stand above the other Celtic greats as only multi-season MVPs. Hondo, McHale, Pierce, Cousy, Cowens, Sam Jones had great careers but isn’t Tatum starting to show he is even better despite not even at the peak of his abilities? I know this is borderline heresy but people said the similar things about Larry Legend this early in his career too..

He's already better than Bird and Russell, he just happens to play in a more competitive era.