Official BKN-DAL-MIN pick watch Thread 2015-16 season

Crossy2008 · Post #1741 » by **Crossy2008** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 3:07 am

67 Points in the second half for BKN. Well, they won a semi close game.

London2Boston · Post #1742 » by **London2Boston** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 3:57 am

Ergh..

Tbh, I don't even get too pissed at Brooklyn winning anymore. I have kind of accepted they will be third worst this year. Philly and Lakers are just way too bad. I will take it though and hopefully we get abit of luck and boost up in the lottery...

BRUNiNHO91 · Post #1743 » by **BRUNiNHO91** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 4:09 am

London2Boston wrote:Ergh..

Tbh, I don't even get too pissed at Brooklyn winning anymore. I have kind of accepted they will be third worst this year. Philly and Lakers are just way too bad. I will take it though and hopefully we get abit of luck and boost up in the lottery...

Yeah I'm more than happy with top 3. As long as they don't get out of that top 4 we should have a very valuable player coming soon..

Post #1744 » by **165bows** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 8:37 am

That Miami team is a fraud IMO, said it all offseason. Still bet they finish closer to .500 than to the second seed.

Andrew McCeltic · Post #1745 » by **Andrew McCeltic** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 12:07 pm

Gotta hope for lotto luck, meaning the BKN pick ends up first, second or third and not fourth, fifth or sixth..

Philly could decide to make some moves to get better in the short term, just to change the reputation they've got going..

And Minnesota, if we're lucky, gets a surprise vet star for Martin/Shabazz/Dieng to play the 2/3, wins a Pekovic trade, and somehow gets their pick into the 13-16 slot.

DK-All Day · Post #1746 » by **DK-All Day** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 1:48 pm

I just feel like when Brooklyn finishes 3rd we're going to get shafted again in the lottery and drop to 4th or 5th. This is a 3 player draft. Simmons / Ingram / Bender.

Chris4Vikes · Post #1747 » by **Chris4Vikes** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 2:00 pm

DK-All Day wrote:I just feel like when Brooklyn finishes 3rd we're going to get shafted again in the lottery and drop to 4th or 5th. This is a 3 player draft. Simmons / Ingram / Bender.

Nets just beat Chicago on the road. No incentive to tank. What makes you so sure they will finish slotted 3rd? Hope you are right. Please convince me.

Triple M · Post #1748 » by **Triple M** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 3:23 pm

im concerned that when the west teams start tanking that the nets could pass a few teams but fortunately with everybody but the lakers in the playoff race it might delay the tanking efforts which should help the Nets remain in the 3rd slot.

TA42 · Post #1749 » by **TA42** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 3:40 pm

Chris4Vikes wrote:
DK-All Day wrote:I just feel like when Brooklyn finishes 3rd we're going to get shafted again in the lottery and drop to 4th or 5th. This is a 3 player draft. Simmons / Ingram / Bender.

Nets just beat Chicago on the road. No incentive to tank. What makes you so sure they will finish slotted 3rd? Hope you are right. Please convince me.

While I agree that the Nets have no incentive to tank I don't think they're going all out to win as many game as well. The pick is gone and I think they've accepted that fact and no amount of wins this season will erase that mistake. What the Nets should be doing is looking for buyers for their remaining assets (Lopez / Young) and trying to restock the shelves with youth and picks. Roll the dice in the off-season in free agency and hope you're not faced with similar results on the court next year.

If they do in fact go in that direction that team will sink faster than the Titanic.

Banks2Pierce · Post #1750 » by **Banks2Pierce** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 3:51 pm

Chris4Vikes wrote:
Nets just beat Chicago on the road. No incentive to tank. What makes you so sure they will finish slotted 3rd? Hope you are right. Please convince me.

They've been the 3rd worst team in the league with the only injury being to a rookie(who had been playing well). The only forms of internal improvement are things like playing Shane Larkin more than Jarrett Jack and you realize that they are on a treadmill to nowhere. They have no incentive to tank, but where's the incentive to win 32 games instead of 26? History is filled with teams that had no intention of tanking in the top 5 of the draft.

DarkAzcura · Post #1751 » by **DarkAzcura** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 4:22 pm

Chris4Vikes wrote:
DK-All Day wrote:I just feel like when Brooklyn finishes 3rd we're going to get shafted again in the lottery and drop to 4th or 5th. This is a 3 player draft. Simmons / Ingram / Bender.

Nets just beat Chicago on the road. No incentive to tank. What makes you so sure they will finish slotted 3rd? Hope you are right. Please convince me.

The Nets are going to win games every now and then you know, heh. They currently have a 29% winning percentage and have the third worst net differential per possession. If they go 16-35 over the next 51 games to complete the season, that will leave them with 25 wins. 16-35 is a 31% winning percentage and is better than how they are currently performing. Whether that is good enough for third worst record or not is another question. Back in 2007, 24 wins was good enough for second worst record. In 2014, 25 wins was good enough for only 6th worst record. In top heavy drafts like this upcoming one, there are usually less teams tanking out. It was difficult to tank in 2014 because of how deep the draft was supposedly at the top. Last year, 25 wins was good enough for fifth worst record, but 2 of the bottom 4 of last season have almost already matched their win total of last season (Knicks and Wolves). Seems like most teams are actually attempting to make the playoffs this year from a front office perspective so we will see.

The Nets have dug themselves into quite a hole. How do you think they will dig themselves out? I am not exactly sure what no incentive to tank even means. Players never tank anyways. The front office has no incentive to tank, but their team is still performing as the third worst with little to no room for improvement. By February or March what incentive will a team full of veterans have to even care when they are clearly out of the playoff race?

This is what teams have to do to only win 25 games:

Almost every team (except BKN and NOP) has to play significantly worse by a pretty big margin to only hit 25 wins at this point. The team that is closest to Brooklyn is NOP, and everyone is pretty much expecting them to pick it up a little bit. Even picking it up a little bit would put them out of the range of Brooklyn pretty quickly. Minnesota and Denver are two teams to be worried about because of how young and unpredictable they can be, but it's even tough seeing them win so few games considering their win percentage so far.

To feel a little better about how the season may play out, which of these teams on this table do you think will actually perform so poorly that they only hit 25 wins? I personally can't imagine Phoenix going 13-36 or the Pelicans going 15-36. I can see Minnesota and Denver going 14-37 and 13-38 but that's mainly because of their youth, but so far they are doing pretty well considering their experience and coaching shakeups.

I guess the question then becomes, do you believe the Nets will perform better than 16-35? Considering the overall strength of the league right now, I'm not sure they can do much better than that. The current 8 seed in the East is projected to win ~48 games. For Brooklyn to get to that level they have to win ~77% of their remaining games. With the playoffs so far out of reach, how do the Brooklyn vets react? For them to hit 25 wins, they still have to play better than they already have been. For them to even hit 26 wins, they have to have a 4.3% better winning percentage than how they have already been playing overall for the remainder of the season. Remember even though some believe the Nets have been playing "better" lately, they are still only 3-7 in their last 10 games which is...24.6 wins when extrapolated out for the whole season. It's not in the bag or anything, but it won't be easy for them.

CodeMonkey · Post #1752 » by **CodeMonkey** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 4:48 pm

Triple M wrote:im concerned that when the west teams start tanking that the nets could pass a few teams but fortunately with everybody but the lakers in the playoff race it might delay the tanking efforts which should help the Nets remain in the 3rd slot.

To build off this statement...

Call me optimistic, but I think the current parity and relative strengths of the two conferences are ideal for our Nets pick.

The West is weak and wide open at the bottom, which means teams may fight for playoff spots rather than tank and fall behind the Nets. Same applies for the East, but with the added bonus that most of the teams are also good. Given that East teams play the Nets more often, that should help the losses pile on.

.....of course, this is all assuming the current strengths of all teams hold.

Triple M · Post #1753 » by **Triple M** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 5:00 pm

CodeMonkey wrote:
Triple M wrote:im concerned that when the west teams start tanking that the nets could pass a few teams but fortunately with everybody but the lakers in the playoff race it might delay the tanking efforts which should help the Nets remain in the 3rd slot.

To build off this statement...

Call me optimistic, but I think the current parity and relative strengths of the two conferences are ideal for our Nets pick.

The West is weak and wide open at the bottom, which means teams may fight for playoff spots rather than tank and fall behind the Nets. Same applies for the East, but with the added bonus that most of the teams are also good. Given that East teams play the Nets more often, that should help the losses pile on.

.....of course, this is all assuming the current strengths of all teams hold.

looking at the nets schedule it seems they play alot of east teams that might be fight to get into the post seasom in late march/april

pfm · Post #1754 » by **pfm** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 5:18 pm

As much as the Nets winning annoys me, I always wonder why people think the Nets don't suck after they win a game. It's going to happen now and again.

-They've proven over a much larger sample size that they suck
-Realistically, they aren't going to get any better
-If Bropez or Thad go down they will REALLY suck (and they've been playing heavy minutes)

Chris4Vikes · Post #1755 » by **Chris4Vikes** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 6:00 pm

pfm wrote:As much as the Nets winning annoys me, I always wonder why people think the Nets don't suck after they win a game. It's going to happen now and again.

-They've proven over a much larger sample size that they suck
-Realistically, they aren't going to get any better
-If Bropez or Thad go down they will REALLY suck (and they've been playing heavy minutes)

Good post. Thanks.

The truth is that this is a very fun time to be a Celtics fan. Cs fighting their way toward the top of the Eastern Conference with an exciting young team and a terrific young coach. At the same time, the Cs have a shot at a top draft pick without having to go through the tanking process. Plus they have the Dallas pick which might turn out OK.

Best of both worlds.

chakdaddy · Post #1756 » by **chakdaddy** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 7:10 pm

Whether it's Nets wins or lottery balls - I just can't imagine us being in position to draft anyone but another Marcus Smart.

Post #1757 » by **djFan71** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 9:25 pm

Uh-oh, look out for the Phoenix tank with Bledsoe out for the year.

CodeMonkey · Post #1758 » by **CodeMonkey** » Tue Dec 29, 2015 9:28 pm

chakdaddy wrote:Whether it's Nets wins or lottery balls - I just can't imagine us being in position to draft anyone but another Marcus Smart.

I mean, as much as the latter prospect sucks (getting a lot of lottery balls and not winning the lottery), your fear/pessimism is a perfect example of the current system working to disincentivize tanking.

As much as everyone complains about it, I think the general framework is perfect. The only thing they should consider playing with is the relative probabilities for each team. That's for the mathematicians to decide.

jirrit · Post #1759 » by **jirrit** » Wed Dec 30, 2015 1:42 am

Phoenix is gonna go down

chakdaddy · Post #1760 » by **chakdaddy** » Wed Dec 30, 2015 2:56 am

CodeMonkey wrote:
chakdaddy wrote:Whether it's Nets wins or lottery balls - I just can't imagine us being in position to draft anyone but another Marcus Smart.

I mean, as much as the latter prospect sucks (getting a lot of lottery balls and not winning the lottery), your fear/pessimism is a perfect example of the current system working to disincentivize tanking.

As much as everyone complains about it, I think the general framework is perfect. The only thing they should consider playing with is the relative probabilities for each team. That's for the mathematicians to decide.

I disagree. The current system totally incentivizes tanking - only the bottom of the bottom has a decent shot at the top picks, and everyone in the middle is heavily incentivized to lose extra games to move up from 7th to 6th. The system is totally flawed in that teams like the Spurs can win every time, we can lose every time, and the Lakers can keep a pick they've traded year after year - and there's no chance for it to even out over time. There need to be low threshholds in the differences between picks, and every pick needs to be randomized unless the team was near the playoffs. I'm shocked and dismayed the proposed reforms didn't pass - it solved almost all those things.