The (Where Ainges Fear to) Trade Thread, 2016-17 (1.0)

[Ed Pinkney]

On Bosh, I vaguely recall reading somewhere that Miami wouldn't waive him until after the playoff eligibility cut off in March. Anyone know if that is correct?

Nothing official, but that is what is expected.

Thanks fella. I've got a feeling it was in the Wiretap.

You can understand why Miami would do it but it is still a little harsh on Bosh, particularly considering what he did for that franchise.

[Curmudgeon]

On Bosh, I vaguely recall reading somewhere that Miami wouldn't waive him until after the playoff eligibility cut off in March. Anyone know if that is correct?

Nothing official, but that is what is expected.

Thanks fella. I've got a feeling it was in the Wiretap.

You can understand why Miami would do it but it is still a little harsh on Bosh, particularly considering what he did for that franchise.

Well, the franchise is paying Bosh $75M through June of 2019, so if the checks cash I'm not sure what he has to complain about.

[Smitty731]

Nothing official, but that is what is expected.

Thanks fella. I've got a feeling it was in the Wiretap.

You can understand why Miami would do it but it is still a little harsh on Bosh, particularly considering what he did for that franchise.

Well, the franchise is paying Bosh $75M through June of 2019, so if the checks cash I'm not sure what he has to complain about.

He wants to play. It seems completely insane to me that he won't just retire, but he wants to play. So, from his side, Miami won't allow him to play right now and by waiving him after 3/1, they would denying him a chance to play in the playoffs this year.

I wish someone would get to him and just get him to retire. Enjoy his family, his money and live a long life.

[Homerclease]

Richaun Holmes a DNP CD tonight in philly, really think he'd be an upgrade here and could be had for relatively cheap.

[Smitty731]

Richaun Holmes a DNP CD tonight in philly, really think he'd be an upgrade here and could be had for relatively cheap.

They won't deal him until Embiid can go back to back games. He's the backup C on the nights Embiid sits. And they love Holmes too. They think he's an excellent prospect.

[Homerclease]

Richaun Holmes a DNP CD tonight in philly, really think he'd be an upgrade here and could be had for relatively cheap.

They won't deal him until Embiid can go back to back games. He's the backup C on the nights Embiid sits. And they love Holmes too. They think he's an excellent prospect.

What do they do with him when Noel is ready to go? There's no way they could find minutes for all 4 of them.

[Smitty731]

Richaun Holmes a DNP CD tonight in philly, really think he'd be an upgrade here and could be had for relatively cheap.

They won't deal him until Embiid can go back to back games. He's the backup C on the nights Embiid sits. And they love Holmes too. They think he's an excellent prospect.

What do they do with him when Noel is ready to go? There's no way they could find minutes for all 4 of them.

It sounds like Noel is a far more likely trade candidate than Holmes is.

[Homerclease]

They won't deal him until Embiid can go back to back games. He's the backup C on the nights Embiid sits. And they love Holmes too. They think he's an excellent prospect.

What do they do with him when Noel is ready to go? There's no way they could find minutes for all 4 of them.

It sounds like Noel is a far more likely trade candidate than Holmes is.

That's too bad, he's the type of bouncy energy big that we need here. Guy struggles to get minutes on philly and would likely start here.

[GoCeltics123]

They won't deal him until Embiid can go back to back games. He's the backup C on the nights Embiid sits. And they love Holmes too. They think he's an excellent prospect.

What do they do with him when Noel is ready to go? There's no way they could find minutes for all 4 of them.

It sounds like Noel is a far more likely trade candidate than Holmes is.

Do you think Noel to Boston still a possibility? Thanks

[simon24]

And that "one league source"'s name?

Danny Ainge.

Funny but could be true.

There are many options for a rebounder right now- Farried(Denver's FO is somewhat impossible to trade with), Chandler(cheap in the current market but old-14 mils/year), Cousins(who knows), Favors could definitely be an option as the Jazz will definitely not have money to pay him as their core will probably be- Hood/Gobert/Hyward. I don't see space for 4 max contracts. I don't see them trading Favors before getting Hayward to sign. Whiteside is a guy I'd trade the BKN pick for, I doubt the Heat would trade him despite they the fact they are in a somewhat tanking mode. Then you have Noel/Holmes(I don't count Okafor cause he's a weak rebounder and we don't need him).. I'm missing somebody...

If the Heat were smart they'd trade him for a first. By the time the Heat are legit contenders again Whiteside will be in his 30s.

[simon24]

Wouldn't be shocked if Ainge traded Bradley for a big. Avery has 1 mre year left, he will be a max player or close to it. I don't think Ainge will pay him and I don't expect his value to ever be higher.

Yeah, that would be smart. BOS could draft a true SG in the draft next year. Have Smart start at SG next season, extend him, he could be the PG of the future.

[simon24]

What about Greg Monroe? He is going to use his player option almost surely. Would help us a lot and would likely cost not too much.

No he wouldn't. His defense sucks. He's not a great rebounder or good shooter and a locker room problem.

[Kolkmania]

If the Nets pick is high, our cap room takes a hit with the new CBA. That's the big one.

Depending on the new CBA, the 2017 rookies could be left unsigned to free up a few more pennies, but last year's draft and stashes would also go up a bit over 2016 numbers.

All told, we could be ~$5m below a max. Despite what Andrew is saying above, I don't think dumping Crowder is the answer there.

Do we have hard data on what the cap holds will be for the top 5 picks next season? Sadly this doesn't amount to much more than precision guesswork on both sides of the debate without the hard data yet. We'd need to know what the cap holds for rookies will actually be and what the 2017 cap will be set at. Cave very well may be right that we'd have to move someone to bring in a max guy. If they were to move Smart as an example it would open up worlds of possibilities in the draft making point guards like Fultz and Ball prime targets

I think they were talking about 50% increases in rookie salaries, which could add about $3m in total if the Nets pick is high enough. Thought it was near double that, so maybe not a big deal. Still pretty tight in terms of max cap space.

Including Olynyk, Mickey, Yabu, Zizic and Jackson, and assuming a 3rd overall pick, I have ~$82m in salaries and cap holds for next year. That gives us only $20m in cap room next summer under an estimated $107m salary cap. Source: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/16859143/nba-salary-cap-projection-2017-18-season-lower-expected

Full max is $33.5m for a KD, while a 25% max is $25.5m for a Hayward, I think? We can reach the lower number just by letting Olynyk and his $7.7m cap hold walk, but the higher number would involve some bloodletting.

At the end of the day, I think the takeaway here is that the team will not give up max or near-max cap space for role players. They've proven that for all of this rebuild, going back to passing on Omer Asik three years ago. Short of adding Cousins or Butler or someone of that nature, they are highly unlikely to add salaries that extend past this season.

I think you misread the article. It stated that 107 million dollars was the previous estimation but it was lowered to 102 million dollars.

Isn't Hayward 7 years in the league? That would bring his maximum salary to 102*0.3=$30.6 million, even without Olynyk it would be hard to get Hayward then. I read articles this summer that the lower projected salary cap would benefit Celtics in comparison with other "contending" teams since they would have enough cap space anyhow. Not sure why this would be the case if I'm looking correctly at the numbers, because a free agent from tier 2 or above will be extremely hard to sign.

- 61 million guaranteed money next year (thus not resigning Zeller/Olynyk/Jackson/Mickey/Young/Green/Jerebko, if I remember correctly Jackson's contract is partially guaranteed, not sure if that's also the case with Mickey, but I'll neglect it now).
- Brooklyn pick could vary between ~7.5 million and 5 million (1-5 pick with 50% rookie scale increase)
- Zizic slightly less than 2 million
- Yabusele ~2.4 million

Sum of this brings the total to ~ 70.4 - 72.9 million dollars cap hold with only 10 players on the roster. Depending on the rookie scale increase of the new CBA and the Brooklyn nets pick it might even be necessary to stash Yabusele or/and Zizic another year to create enough cap space to sign Hayward or Griffin. If this happens DA needs to be extremely creative with the remaining cap space and exceptions to give this roster some depth.

[Smitty731]

What do they do with him when Noel is ready to go? There's no way they could find minutes for all 4 of them.

It sounds like Noel is a far more likely trade candidate than Holmes is.

Do you think Noel to Boston still a possibility? Thanks

I do, but only if Philadelphia lowers their demands.

[Captain_Caveman]

Do we have hard data on what the cap holds will be for the top 5 picks next season? Sadly this doesn't amount to much more than precision guesswork on both sides of the debate without the hard data yet. We'd need to know what the cap holds for rookies will actually be and what the 2017 cap will be set at. Cave very well may be right that we'd have to move someone to bring in a max guy. If they were to move Smart as an example it would open up worlds of possibilities in the draft making point guards like Fultz and Ball prime targets

I think they were talking about 50% increases in rookie salaries, which could add about $3m in total if the Nets pick is high enough. Thought it was near double that, so maybe not a big deal. Still pretty tight in terms of max cap space.

Including Olynyk, Mickey, Yabu, Zizic and Jackson, and assuming a 3rd overall pick, I have ~$82m in salaries and cap holds for next year. That gives us only $20m in cap room next summer under an estimated $107m salary cap. Source: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/16859143/nba-salary-cap-projection-2017-18-season-lower-expected

Full max is $33.5m for a KD, while a 25% max is $25.5m for a Hayward, I think? We can reach the lower number just by letting Olynyk and his $7.7m cap hold walk, but the higher number would involve some bloodletting.

At the end of the day, I think the takeaway here is that the team will not give up max or near-max cap space for role players. They've proven that for all of this rebuild, going back to passing on Omer Asik three years ago. Short of adding Cousins or Butler or someone of that nature, they are highly unlikely to add salaries that extend past this season.

I think you misread the article. It stated that 107 million dollars was the previous estimation but it was lowered to 102 million dollars.

Isn't Hayward 7 years in the league? That would bring his maximum salary to 102*0.3=$30.6 million, even without Olynyk it would be hard to get Hayward then. I read articles this summer that the lower projected salary cap would benefit Celtics in comparison with other "contending" teams since they would have enough cap space anyhow. Not sure why this would be the case if I'm looking correctly at the numbers, because a free agent from tier 2 or above will be extremely hard to sign.

- 61 million guaranteed money next year (thus not resigning Zeller/Olynyk/Jackson/Mickey/Young/Green/Jerebko, if I remember correctly Jackson's contract is partially guaranteed, not sure if that's also the case with Mickey, but I'll neglect it now).
- Brooklyn pick could vary between ~7.5 million and 5 million (1-5 pick with 50% rookie scale increase)
- Zizic slightly less than 2 million
- Yabusele ~2.4 million

Sum of this brings the total to ~ 70.4 - 72.9 million dollars cap hold with only 10 players on the roster. Depending on the rookie scale increase of the new CBA and the Brooklyn nets pick it might even be necessary to stash Yabusele or/and Zizic another year to create enough cap space to sign Hayward or Griffin. If this happens DA needs to be extremely creative with the remaining cap space and exceptions to give this roster some depth.

Thanks. I read it right but typed it wrong. The $20m cap room figure I cited was for a $102m cap. And yeah on Hayward. Has it been 7 years already? Damn, I'm old lol.

You can get that $20m cap room number about $7m higher by dumping Kelly, but I believe cap space is also calculated on 13 rosters spots, so you'd likely need to add $2-3m for three ghost cap holds, depending on what figure the new CBA uses for them. Dumping Mickey and Jackson doesn't really help there, and probably doesn't get you to Hayward's max (thank god).

[CelticFaninLBC]

Do we have hard data on what the cap holds will be for the top 5 picks next season? Sadly this doesn't amount to much more than precision guesswork on both sides of the debate without the hard data yet. We'd need to know what the cap holds for rookies will actually be and what the 2017 cap will be set at. Cave very well may be right that we'd have to move someone to bring in a max guy. If they were to move Smart as an example it would open up worlds of possibilities in the draft making point guards like Fultz and Ball prime targets

Isn't Hayward 7 years in the league? That would bring his maximum salary to 102*0.3=$30.6 million, even without Olynyk it would be hard to get Hayward then. I read articles this summer that the lower projected salary cap would benefit Celtics in comparison with other "contending" teams since they would have enough cap space anyhow. Not sure why this would be the case if I'm looking correctly at the numbers, because a free agent from tier 2 or above will be extremely hard to sign.

I thought Hayward is eligible to get 28% of the cap like Horford, not 30%?

[CelticFaninLBC]

If Ainge trades Crowder, Smart, Olynyk and BKN 2017 for Cousins. Is Boston much better this year?

[Kolkmania]

Isn't Hayward 7 years in the league? That would bring his maximum salary to 102*0.3=$30.6 million, even without Olynyk it would be hard to get Hayward then. I read articles this summer that the lower projected salary cap would benefit Celtics in comparison with other "contending" teams since they would have enough cap space anyhow. Not sure why this would be the case if I'm looking correctly at the numbers, because a free agent from tier 2 or above will be extremely hard to sign.

I thought Hayward is eligible to get 28% of the cap like Horford, not 30%?

Well he's eligible to earn everything between the minimum salary and 30% of the maximum salary cap.

If I'm correctly, Horford earned a maximum salary last free agency. His base salary is slightly below, but is increased every year.
2016/2017 : $26,540,100
2017/2018 : $27,734,405
2018/2019: $28,928,709
2019/2020: $30,123,014
Average: $28,331,557

[CelticFaninLBC]

I thought Hayward is eligible to get 28% of the cap like Horford, not 30%?

Well he's eligible to earn everything between the minimum salary and 30% of the maximum salary cap.

If I'm correctly, Horford earned a maximum salary last free agency. His base salary is slightly below, but is increased every year.
2016/2017 : $26,540,100
2017/2018 : $27,734,405
2018/2019: $28,928,709
2019/2020: $30,123,014
Average: $28,331,557

Horford's starting salary is 28% of the cap, so I assume Hayward would start at $28.5 mil....

[watsonthedragon]

If Ainge trades Crowder, Smart, Olynyk and BKN 2017 for Cousins. Is Boston much better this year?

Kills our bench/depth for sure but a Cousins/Horford front court is the best in the league. Also leaves a hole at the 3.