ddb wrote:Brad's going to shock us all.
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ddb wrote:Brad's going to shock us all.
cl2117 wrote:djFan71 wrote:I won't go into the gory details, but I think you could turn Jrue, KP and Hauser into just Rui and Knecht and reset the tax. Maybe gain a 2nd or 2, maybe not.
Sign pick 28 to 120% scale.
Sign Kornet* for 3 years starting at $5M.
You have $2.6M left for roster spot 14. Fill it with 32, existing 2-way or vet min, etc
Pritchard, White, Brown, Rui, Kornet
JD, Sheierman, Knecht, Walsh, Queta
Tillman, 28, <spot 14>
x=> Tatum
You duck the tax.
Starting lineup is good, not great. Bench is YOUNG (experience wise, not age necessarily) but some talent there.
Get growth from hopefully 2-3 of the young guys, some more moves / our own pick next summer and you're in good shape for 26-27 with Tatum.
* Note: If Al wants back, split $7.6M between him and Kornet somehow.Spoiler:
Now this is a re-tool after my own heart.
I don't think getting below the tax is a must but I also think that if the deals present themselves we should make every effort to get there even if it means moving Hauser, which pains me. Getting back someone like Knecht makes me so much more comfortable with that Sophie's choice because at least we've got a viable path towards developing a genuine replacement for him. Offensively I think he can ultimately replace what Sam brings (albeit slightly different make-up as a less lethal shooter but a more versatile scorer), the real question would be whether he can make the same strides Sam made as a defender.
Rui is one of my binkies. I love the physical profile for the modern NBA. Versatile both offensively and defensively. Lakers used him as a small-ball 5 with a lot of success in certain match-ups (brutal in others but let's ignore that), but he can also plays as a reasonably switchable 4 as well. 40%+ from 3 for two years straight (38% for his career), so he fits Joe's system like a glove. Feels like there is a well of untapped upside there.
What seems to hold Rui back the most is his consistency and BBIQ, so my ideal scenario is we manage to convince Horford to stick around on the vet minimum to pass the torch and hopefully help elevate Rui's game. Even if that weren't to happen I would hope that as he continues to mature he'll round out some of those rougher edges.
Looking at the details of the trades, the only part I question is whether LA would be content giving up both Rui and Knecht for Gafford/Martin and then whether BKN would give up #36 for Ayo. Assuming the latter is true I would re-route #36 to LA or just send them #32 and keep #36 from the 2nd trade. LA is going to need cheap young depth so they can take a crack at replacing what they give up with Dalton while still getting some great fitting pieces back.
What I also love about these deals is that I think based on how they can be structured we could be creating a KP sized TPE as well. So it not only resets out cap situation and gives us a couple young talents, but also gives us an avenue to bring in more talent down the line without having to match contracts etc. So if we have a miraculous run next year without JB to start and then stay hot when he's back, if Tatum is looking like he could make an earlier than expected return, you could realistically give up on some of the savings you've achieved and bring in some guys to make a playoff push. And if not, it'll still be there at the start of the following off-season at which point we'd be gearing up for '26/27 and want to be able to add rotation pieces as well.
I hope Brad is taking notes.
I would take the plunge on this particular trade provided that Maluach is available at 5. Bleacher Report's Mock Draft has Maluach out at #4. I like Kessler's rebounding , getting easy buckets around the hoop and defensive presence in the paint. But his pick and roll defense is Enes Kanter bad. Check out how the Celtics eviscerated him in their last game against Utah. I think the Celtics can certainly work with Kessler, but getting more with Kessler (like Maluach) would be ideal. I think Queta on that contract has value whether they would then trade him or keep him.Larry_Russell wrote:celtxman wrote:Celts17Pride wrote:So trade Brown and hope for a once in a lifetime chance on a draft pick. Yikes!
I am squarely in the middle about a possibility of trading Jaylen Brown. I see both sides.
Pros of keeping Brown: He's already performed on the biggest stage. That's in the books. Brown in the biggest moments of a championship season was their best player, not just in my opinion but also by being voted EC Finals MVP and Finals MVP. This season, those of us who have had a torn meniscus know full well what it's like to play basketball with it, much less at the highest level. He went out there.
Also, I know in the world of us all making fun trades in trade checkers we never factor in what the player means to the community. Brown has a huge impact in Boston. Can you imagine the Celtics miscalculating this trade? What would be the thought players coming here and loyalty?
Finally his contract. We all know Brown never should have had the highest contract in the NBA. Its all about timing and the supermax. With the projected salary cap increases and league revenues this may end up being an excellent contract. He is in the prime of his career.
Pros of trading Brown. The devil is in the details. Let's consider a trade idea that's out there. Think of Derrick White. What if the Celtics see that kind of White potential in Devin Vassell?Then you also get the #2 pick. We keep hearing about Harper, but what about Bailey? And moving up the board is Maluach. He moved up to #4 in some Mock drafts partly because he showed offensive skills in a LA pro day that he couldn't display on a loaded Duke team. Your center issue changes overnight. If Vassell is really good you just saved $25 million per (and are in position to get under the 2nd apron)and he is also under contract for 4 more seasons at $27 million per. Therefore you are in position to keep Jrue and KP, or if you do want to trade either of them no one can have you over a barrel.
As always I root for the laundry- the Celtics. May they make great decisions!
RE: The point on not moving up for Harper.
That can certainly be a thing as well. I know they worked out Tre, and Maluach seems like an OBVIOUS choice as well.
Spurs: Jaylen Brown, KJ MArtin, Johnny Juzan (into TPE)
Utah Kristaps, #2, #28
Boston #5, #21, Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Taylor Hendricks, Walker Kessler, Julian Champagnie, Isaiah Collier, #5 (Maluach), #21 (Clifford)
Trade saves 21 Million
Drop/Trade/Cut Queta, Davidson, Tillman - Saves 7 million
Trade Hauser for picks saves 10 million
Total savings 38 million putting them below the 1st apron before signing Rookies. In offseason (When Tatum is back and 100%) can look to trade Jrue for more savings.
Jrue/Pritchard/Collier
White/Scheierman/Clifford
Vassell/Champagnie/Walsh
Barnes/Hendricks/Horford?
Kessler/Maluach/Kornet
ddb wrote:Brad's going to shock us all.
hugepatsfan wrote:People keep using phrases like "writing the next two years off" or "tanking" and I think it's pretty extreme for most of the iterations of resets I see here. I think many got spoiled by having Jrue/Porzingis as all star caliber players still on the tail end of their primes as our 4th and 5th best players. That's not happening again most likely. The next window of contention for a Tatum/brown/White headlined team is more likely to look like the year prior where it was Horford/Smart/Brogdon/RWilliams/GWilliams rounding out the rotation.
Hauser and Pritchard are still here in those type of roles - Hauser gets moved in a lot of these scenarios but also some where he's kept. Many talk about trying to re-sign Kornet who kind of fits in that category too at a lower cost. The guys people talk about taking back - Klay Thompson, Patrick Williams, WCJ, Vanderbilt, etc. - aren't ideal players, but they're also not trash and they have contracts that could be used in trades for the right fits. Between developing Schierman, our picks this year, and our future picks (mainly 2026) you have to develop some guys too. That's just how it works.
If your long term goal is to build the 23-24 Celtics, then I think you're going to be disappointed. The 22-23 Celtics are a more realistic goal and it's very doable IMO. That's the road map I'd look to, and most of these tax resets are well within reason for that.
ddb wrote:The more I think about it, the more I feel like Derrick White could ultimately be the guy that nets the highest return in a trade. Listen, I LOVE DWhite. He's been incredible in Boston. Obviously, good friends with JT as well. He's under contract. There's really no reason to trade him this summer. But let's think about this a bit further.
1. Coming off a career year
2. In his prime
3. Locked in to a manageable contract for multiple years
4. Great teammate. Plug n Play in any situation
5. Olympian. An All-Star in his role.
If you look back in the history of the NBA, there are examples of great President/GM's trading a player like White at the right time, and they end up bringing back Hall of Fame talent. One example worth sharing is in 2011 when the Spurs traded a 24-year-old George Hill coming off a season in which he averaged 11.6PPG. He was beloved in San Antonio and looked like he'd be a solid Spur for a long time. Until they traded him to Indy for the draft pick that turned into Kawhi Leonard.
A little bit different situation in that White is older, but he's also better that Hill ever was. What if Brad sees a potential superstar in the late lottery? What if Brad loves a player like Cedric Coward, for example, and Coward turns into an absolute monster player. 6'6 2-way star to put alongside JT/JB. New Big 3. 3 All-Stars.
Raptors and Rockets are 2 teams I'd like at for this type of approach. Would Houston send #10, Reed Sheppard package for DWhite? Hmmmmmm.
yeleven11 wrote:All the Jaylen Brown for draft pick trade ideas got me curious about how likely a top5 pick is to have a better career than Jaylen Brown and looking at the past 20 years, the chance of getting a better player than Jaylen Brown is pretty low: https://www.tankathon.com/past_drafts
Obviously could mean nothing for this draft if the FO really loves a guy but thought it was an interesting data point
cl2117 wrote:Celts17Pride wrote:Whatever happens this off-season I hope Brad Stevens brings in a few young, athletic, wings and bigs to play defense and bring a little energy into the game. I think the Celtics were lacking in that area a little last year.
Jaden Springer may be available for the right price.
165bows wrote:ddb wrote:The more I think about it, the more I feel like Derrick White could ultimately be the guy that nets the highest return in a trade. Listen, I LOVE DWhite. He's been incredible in Boston. Obviously, good friends with JT as well. He's under contract. There's really no reason to trade him this summer. But let's think about this a bit further.
1. Coming off a career year
2. In his prime
3. Locked in to a manageable contract for multiple years
4. Great teammate. Plug n Play in any situation
5. Olympian. An All-Star in his role.
If you look back in the history of the NBA, there are examples of great President/GM's trading a player like White at the right time, and they end up bringing back Hall of Fame talent. One example worth sharing is in 2011 when the Spurs traded a 24-year-old George Hill coming off a season in which he averaged 11.6PPG. He was beloved in San Antonio and looked like he'd be a solid Spur for a long time. Until they traded him to Indy for the draft pick that turned into Kawhi Leonard.
A little bit different situation in that White is older, but he's also better that Hill ever was. What if Brad sees a potential superstar in the late lottery? What if Brad loves a player like Cedric Coward, for example, and Coward turns into an absolute monster player. 6'6 2-way star to put alongside JT/JB. New Big 3. 3 All-Stars.
Raptors and Rockets are 2 teams I'd like at for this type of approach. Would Houston send #10, Reed Sheppard package for DWhite? Hmmmmmm.
Seems like Houston would be low on the list for White - they've already got Van Vleet and Jaylen Green, who goes to the bench?
SA would be the perfect fit (or as some have mentioned Orlando or GS) but if they trade White they need a King's Ransom imo that would make #10/Sheppard look petty.
Plus minus of a White trade would be the best value of the deal would be Boston's own 2026 pick (on top of White's trade return) but it would make contending after that much more difficult unless they think they've got 2024 Jrue on tap for another 4 years.
I guess the other main reason would be he got his rear worked by Jalen Brunson but I'd rather look at that as a fluke lol
I agree that they might not get much if anything for Hauser. We live in a world of aprons. Even with another championship we may have made painful cuts. To me losing Hauser's salary is not that painful as opposed to other key players. Another thought. The Celtics definitely will be below the 2nd apron when all is said and done. But what if they get below the 2nd apron without using Hauser (trading Brown, KP or Jrue)? Let's say they could figure a way to do that. Now you're a Sam Hauser contract away from getting below the 1st apron ($207.8 M for 2nd apron, $195.9M for first apron.) So now if Scheierman can't replace Hauser adequately, by getting under the 1st apron you have unlocked the MLE which means they can sign a player making up to $12.8M into that MLE. Obviously they would make sure the signing would stay below the 2nd apron. So you get to test drive Scheierman with the ability to get an impact player at the deadline. Living below the 2nd apron is a breath of fresh air. Getting below the 1st apron is a full tank of oxygen. The point is there is so much in play here it's hard for us to wrap our heads around it all. I believe the Celtics are analyzing this and way more and I think their final result will be involving these type of elements next to players abilities. It will be quite a ride.ddb wrote:celtxman wrote:ddb wrote:
That contract is exactly why the Celtics should keep Hauser. Same with Pritchard. Why would you trade two useful players on great contracts? You need guys like that to fill out a rotation when you have max guys on the roster. The Celtics issue is they have 3 second tier contracts (KP, Jrue, White) when they can only really have 2.
The solution seems too obvious to me. Move KP's contract. Shouldn't be too difficult as it's an expiring deal, and when he's healthy he's a really good player. There will be teams interested in taking a chance on KP. For Boston, take a lesser player or two that offers more durability. At the end of the day, KP missed half the games anyway. At least, you fix the tax situation, then have a couple more able bodies on the roster that can hopefully help some.
On Hauser. I'm not as sold on him as a player. His overall 3 point percentage looks good on paper, but I rarely find a game that I say, Hauser really won that game for us. Yes he plays better defense than many believe, but he has too many games that he doesn't contribute much if anything. You rarely say that about Pritchard getting paid less, and you often say Pritchard won us games. A $10 million contract on the Celtics is different than many teams. It is possible to keep him with other trades lowering their payroll, but I guess we'll see.
You mention trading KP. I'm not against trading him. I'm just not a fan of trading him to get rid of him and flying by the seat of our pants and kicking the can down the road and figuring it out later. I think I was in the midst of writing my last post when you posted this. So I was thinking of acquiring a high draft pick to get Maluach as an example. But someone has to show me something tangible. If you trade KP maybe the best time is at the trade deadline where he's probably healthy and this condition is gone. Think of the market for teams vying for a championship where his contract expires or they have Bird rights to resign him
Only issue is you're not getting anything for Hauser. Maybe a 2nd rd pick or two. It would be a salary dump. IDK. I just think he's a useful rotation player. He was missed in the playoffs because of his injury.
Celts17Pride wrote:Every team including OKC has a two year window with current players in this CBA. Dort, J Williams, Holmgren, Hartenstein, Wallace all come up for extensions in 2 years. The aprons, penalties, and lack of flexibilty is going to make it hard for teams to stay together. In my opinion, you have to keep 2-3 players and try to sell high or get draft picks for everyone else. Again, in my opinion, in 2025 I would keep Tatum, Brown and White and try to set up for a run in 2026/2027.
OKC in a few years should keep SGA, Holmgren and Williams and everyone else is just a CBA casualty in my opinion.
Celts17Pride wrote:Every team including OKC has a two year window with current players in this CBA. Dort, J Williams, Holmgren, Hartenstein, Wallace all come up for extensions in 2 years. The aprons, penalties, and lack of flexibilty is going to make it hard for teams to stay together. In my opinion, you have to keep 2-3 players and try to sell high or get draft picks for everyone else. Again, in my opinion, in 2025 I would keep Tatum, Brown and White and try to set up for a run in 2026/2027.
OKC in a few years should keep SGA, Holmgren and Williams and everyone else is just a CBA casualty in my opinion.
ddb wrote:165bows wrote:ddb wrote:The more I think about it, the more I feel like Derrick White could ultimately be the guy that nets the highest return in a trade. Listen, I LOVE DWhite. He's been incredible in Boston. Obviously, good friends with JT as well. He's under contract. There's really no reason to trade him this summer. But let's think about this a bit further.
1. Coming off a career year
2. In his prime
3. Locked in to a manageable contract for multiple years
4. Great teammate. Plug n Play in any situation
5. Olympian. An All-Star in his role.
If you look back in the history of the NBA, there are examples of great President/GM's trading a player like White at the right time, and they end up bringing back Hall of Fame talent. One example worth sharing is in 2011 when the Spurs traded a 24-year-old George Hill coming off a season in which he averaged 11.6PPG. He was beloved in San Antonio and looked like he'd be a solid Spur for a long time. Until they traded him to Indy for the draft pick that turned into Kawhi Leonard.
A little bit different situation in that White is older, but he's also better that Hill ever was. What if Brad sees a potential superstar in the late lottery? What if Brad loves a player like Cedric Coward, for example, and Coward turns into an absolute monster player. 6'6 2-way star to put alongside JT/JB. New Big 3. 3 All-Stars.
Raptors and Rockets are 2 teams I'd like at for this type of approach. Would Houston send #10, Reed Sheppard package for DWhite? Hmmmmmm.
Seems like Houston would be low on the list for White - they've already got Van Vleet and Jaylen Green, who goes to the bench?
SA would be the perfect fit (or as some have mentioned Orlando or GS) but if they trade White they need a King's Ransom imo that would make #10/Sheppard look petty.
Plus minus of a White trade would be the best value of the deal would be Boston's own 2026 pick (on top of White's trade return) but it would make contending after that much more difficult unless they think they've got 2024 Jrue on tap for another 4 years.
I guess the other main reason would be he got his rear worked by Jalen Brunson but I'd rather look at that as a fluke lol
Subsequent trade for KD. FVV, Eason, picks. something along those lines.
White/Green/Thompson/KD/Sengun with Jabari still there.
Larry_Russell wrote:yeleven11 wrote:All the Jaylen Brown for draft pick trade ideas got me curious about how likely a top5 pick is to have a better career than Jaylen Brown and looking at the past 20 years, the chance of getting a better player than Jaylen Brown is pretty low: https://www.tankathon.com/past_drafts
Obviously could mean nothing for this draft if the FO really loves a guy but thought it was an interesting data point
Since Jaylen was Drafted
Tatum is better
Fox is close
Luka is better
Trae is a weird one, IMO would be way better with Tatum than Brown, but isnt as good as brown
Garland is close
Ja without off court is better
Zion without off court is better
Edwards is better
Cade is better
Mobley is better
Paolo is better
Wemby is better
Amen might be in future
Castle might be in future
Larry_Russell wrote:Celts17Pride wrote:Every team including OKC has a two year window with current players in this CBA. Dort, J Williams, Holmgren, Hartenstein, Wallace all come up for extensions in 2 years. The aprons, penalties, and lack of flexibilty is going to make it hard for teams to stay together. In my opinion, you have to keep 2-3 players and try to sell high or get draft picks for everyone else. Again, in my opinion, in 2025 I would keep Tatum, Brown and White and try to set up for a run in 2026/2027.
OKC in a few years should keep SGA, Holmgren and Williams and everyone else is just a CBA casualty in my opinion.
Projected Cap in 2026-27 is 166.7. Lux Tax 202.5
Tatum 58.4
Brown 57
White 30.3
Would make a combined 145.7
Lets assume the team keeps Pritchard, Baylor and Walsh cause they are cheap and 100% need cheap talent.
Another 12.8 million - Total 158.5 - 6 players
Lets assume they trade all first round picks this year and next year to be 2nd rounders and they add 3 total second round players ( lets say 1.5 mill per year)
That is another 4.5 Million - Total 163 - 9 total players
That will have to come from trades for KP and Jrue.
Lets assume that trading those 2 players nets 2 solid rotation pieces. Not allstar level, but good supporting cast type players. And lets assume that Team is lucky enough to only take back 50% of those 2 players salaries in Contracts that last PAST next season.
That is another 32 million - Total 195 Million - 11 players
Lets say the team uses the MLE (currently below Lux tax so full MLE is available)
That's Another 15.5 million - Total 210 Million - 12 players
Now 2 more players needed...so lets assume that team signs 2 vet min guys at around 2.5 mill each
Thats another 5 million - Total 215 Million (Lux Tax team) - 14 players
And the roster you have is
PG: Pritchard
SG: White/Scheierman
SF: Brown/Walsh
PF: Tatum
C: Queta
and
2 solid role players from the Jrue and KP trade
2 - 2nd rounders with 1 year experience
1 - 1st or 2nd rounder with 1 year experience
MLE player
2 - Vet min guys
I see no way that that team is a championship level team at all...unless tatum comes back from a torn achillies and suddely is the clear cut MVP level player in the NBA that elevates everyone like Jokic does.
hugepatsfan wrote:People keep using phrases like "writing the next two years off" or "tanking" and I think it's pretty extreme for most of the iterations of resets I see here. I think many got spoiled by having Jrue/Porzingis as all star caliber players still on the tail end of their primes as our 4th and 5th best players. That's not happening again most likely. The next window of contention for a Tatum/brown/White headlined team is more likely to look like the year prior where it was Horford/Smart/Brogdon/RWilliams/GWilliams rounding out the rotation.
Hauser and Pritchard are still here in those type of roles - Hauser gets moved in a lot of these scenarios but also some where he's kept. Many talk about trying to re-sign Kornet who kind of fits in that category too at a lower cost. The guys people talk about taking back - Klay Thompson, Patrick Williams, WCJ, Vanderbilt, etc. - aren't ideal players, but they're also not trash and they have contracts that could be used in trades for the right fits. Between developing Schierman, our picks this year, and our future picks (mainly 2026) you have to develop some guys too. That's just how it works.
If your long term goal is to build the 23-24 Celtics, then I think you're going to be disappointed. The 22-23 Celtics are a more realistic goal and it's very doable IMO. That's the road map I'd look to, and most of these tax resets are well within reason for that.