VeryMuchWoke wrote:The Corey's wrote:VeryMuchWoke wrote:
I think that's incredibly optimistic. I expect it's going to be between 500K and 3M.
If 3 million people die then you gotta seriously think about holding someone accountable.
Sorry people but you dont wash your hands and say I'm fine if 3 million people die from a virus the president until 3 weeks ago claimed was an attack from the left to gain traction in the election.
That said. I dont see it getting that high. That's insane.
The US has 327M people. I've seen estimates that 20-70% will be infected, and that sounds like a reasonable range to be.
I'd say the fatality rate is between 0.5% and 3%. With everyone having perfect access to ventilators, ICU beds, etc it's much closer to the lower bound, but given how far we are from that reality I think 0.5% is our best case fatality rate.
At 20% Infected:
0.5% means 327K fatalities
1% means 654K fatalities
2% means 1.5M fatalities
3% means 1.96M fatalities
At 70% Infected:
O.5% means 1.15M fatalities
1% means 2.3M fatalities
2% means 4.58M fatalities
3% means 6.87M fatalities
Without the ability to isolate and with a much older than average population, 20% (726/3700) of Diamond Princess got infected with coronavirus and 10 so far have died (1.4%). I think that means the mortality is probably closer to 0.5% as you suggest and that much less than 20% will catch it. However, every one of those people who go sick got expertly treated in a hospital with access to 100% of what they needed.
Patient zero from New Rochelle just got discharged from hospital today. He is counted as one of the 98.6% who don’t die. Yet he was hospitalized for 28 days. Does anybody really think we can hospitalize 20% of 300 million people for 28 days over the next 6 weeks? The mortality will likely approach 10%-15% just for that reason alone if that many get sick.
In Massachusetts, after 3 days of 40-60% increases in deaths.....it went from 44 to 48 yesterday or up by only 10%. That shows that the social isolation started 2 weeks ago may have helped. Need to see a few more days like that to be sure but let that be motivation to do what is being asked.