The (Where Ainges Fear to) Trade Thread, 2016-17 (1.0)

[CelticsLV]

Like Danny is going to stay away from Noel because he trashed his rental.... Please.

Curmudgeon be like...

[Homerclease]

The question with Noel is do you want to pay the piper to acquire him or much like they did with Horford wait out the year and make a run at him in free agency? I'd rather bandaid the big man problem this year with a Bogut type and try to sign Noel outright rather than cough up whatever Philly is going to ask for which has been too much based on past events. Throw 20-25 million at him in the offseason and force philly to match it

[Andrew McCeltic]

I'd be more worried about him trashing his house.

Curm, you've gotta remember, he trashed *someone else's* house. He was renting; owning a home might make him responsible.

every kid his age trashes their apartment unless you wear boat shoes and those "my daddy is a lawyer" shorts

::throws out his own boat shoes::

Actually Curm *is* a lawyer - it's very possible it was his property Noel trashed...

[SmartWentCrazy]

The question with Noel is do you want to pay the piper to acquire him or much like they did with Horford wait out the year and make a run at him in free agency? I'd rather bandaid the big man problem this year with a Bogut type and try to sign Noel outright rather than cough up whatever Philly is going to ask for which has been too much based on past events. Throw 20-25 million at him in the offseason and force philly to match it

Is it advantageous to get Noel now and keep him with his ~13m cap hold to begin the off season? That ~7-12m in savings could allow us to add a nice piece this offseason.

[Homerclease]

The question with Noel is do you want to pay the piper to acquire him or much like they did with Horford wait out the year and make a run at him in free agency? I'd rather bandaid the big man problem this year with a Bogut type and try to sign Noel outright rather than cough up whatever Philly is going to ask for which has been too much based on past events. Throw 20-25 million at him in the offseason and force philly to match it

Is it advantageous to get Noel now and keep him with his ~13m cap hold to begin the off season? That ~7-12m in savings could allow us to add a nice piece this offseason.

Depends on what you give up, they will want a Brooklyn pick. I'm not making that trade for all the tea in china. If the price comes down I'm all for it but it's doubtful that it actually happens

[Captain_Caveman]

I'd be willing to trade Rozier and a pick for Noel. He'd be a perfect fit-- would be a 5 on offense, 4 on defense. His caphold could hurt, but our path to future contention is trading the BKN picks.

Rozier should be what Philly is looking for. He can rebound, shoot, defend and serve as a secondary ball handler to Simmons. He's young enough to grow with their core and has two cheap years left.

If Philly wants more, I'd tell em to pound sand, roll with what we have a preserve cap space.

Right on, but which pick?

I mean, if it is that or wait for Hayward, I think so. Even accounting for our scoring issues.

[cellar-door]

In terms of Noel, I think I'd be willing to do something like:
Rozier
Young
Non-BRK 1st

for
Noel
Thompson

I think that's very good value for Noel, but I know many PHI fans disagree and think they'll get more. I don't see that happening, and if anything I could see Rozier improving enough by the deadline that Danny won't trade him. So to me this is a strong value match, but also a deal I think won't happen. More and more I'm thinking that Noel doesn't get moved by the deadline.

[Writebloc]

I'd be willing to trade Rozier and a pick for Noel. He'd be a perfect fit-- would be a 5 on offense, 4 on defense. His caphold could hurt, but our path to future contention is trading the BKN picks.

Rozier should be what Philly is looking for. He can rebound, shoot, defend and serve as a secondary ball handler to Simmons. He's young enough to grow with their core and has two cheap years left.

If Philly wants more, I'd tell em to pound sand, roll with what we have a preserve cap space.

Right on, but which pick?

I mean, if it is that or wait for Hayward, I think so. Even accounting for our scoring issues.

Non Brooklyn, non Memphis, anything more than that you got to get assets back.

[wickerhd]

I'm just not that impressed by Noel. Now, I grant you it has been difficult to shine on a historically bad team, but he will clearly not be more than a complementary player on a good team. He has no three point game which is a serious detriment in a Brad Stevens offense.

He might be an upgrade to Amir, but he doesn't make us a contender this year, and the loss of Rozier further weakens an already offensively challenged second unit. We would have a more balanced team, but I'm not convinced that would result in more wins.




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[CelticsLV]

I would trade Olynyk + Rozier for Noel and even add one of lesser draft picks if it's necessary to outbid other offers. Cap wise we would end up with just about +1mil to our total cap with holds for 2017 and get rights to resign Noel even over the cap.

Thomas/Smart/Jackson
Bradley/Green/Young
Crowder/Brown/Nader
Horford/Jerebko/Mickey
Noel/Amir/Zeller

We get a major boost to our starting 5 fit wise. Jerebko can easily replace what Olynyk does and we move Amir to the bench.
In 2017 Cs can make 30mil room by getting rid of Amir, Jerebko, Zeller, Young, Green, Jackson, Mickey.

Thomas/Smart/
Hayward/Bradley/
Crowder/Brown/Nader
Horford/Yabusele/
Noel/Zizic/

Add top 5 pick from 2017 draft in rotation. Rest can be filled with some 2nd rounders/vet min players.
This is one of my prefered, realistic outcomes. Not some A. Davis pipe dreams.

[Kaykoose]

Why is Hayward the major play for so many posters? He is not good enough to make us contenders

[Andrew McCeltic]

He's the guy who seemed/seems gettable. I think he leaves Utah, but not for Boston. Banking on the connection to Stevens is a mistake- Hayward's an adult man years out of college.

And I don't think Hayward has the elite scoring ability to be treated like the Pierce or Garnett of our new team. Does IT/Hayward/Horford win a championship? No...

But he does have a kind of offensive awareness and versatility that's sort of Horford-esque.

[cellar-door]

Why is Hayward the major play for so many posters? He is not good enough to make us contenders

He might be. He brings a huge number of things the Cs struggle with.
He can be a high usage scorer (nobody but IT can now)
He makes plays for others (he'd have beeb second to IT in AST% last year)
He gets to the line. A LOT. (would have been 2nd to IT last year, but better than IT for career numbers)
He can create his own shot.
Can shoot the 3.

Hayward may not be enough by himself to make them a contender, but he plugs basically every hole we have in our SG/SF rotation. He's just about the perfect fit for our offense, and since this is the last year BOS likely has max money, he makes a lot of sense.

[Curmudgeon]

Hayward makes sense only if they also add a big man. Favors makes infinitely more sense, but he's not a free agent.

Isn't it obvious? This Celtics team is too small. They need a bruiser. The meaner the better.

[pasfru]

I've not seen one argument for Noel that is more convincing than any I've seen for Bogut (seen a lot more for the former too).

Give up a lot for Noel and have him leave in the summer, that or we pay him near the max for strictly defensive purposes, or give up very little for Bogut and have him fill more needs for our team while walking in the summer comfortably or returning for cheap.

Oh, and guess what? If we still really want Noel in the summer, we can still get him. Trading for Bogut gives us a lot of the short-term benefits that Noel does right now while also coming cheaper than Noel. He's also an expiring and doesn't hamper our ability to still get Noel if Danny wants him next summer. I hope he doesn't give him the max, but hey, if there's somehow a lot less demand than expected, we're not at all restricted in signing him.

[Avalanche]

Problem with Bogut is how likely he would be to be healthy and contributing when we need him most

Not that Noel is any pillar of health either

Not a personal fan of Bogut, but if we're opting for the cheap and flexible route, I can see the benefit

[pasfru]

Problem with Bogut is how likely he would be to be healthy and contributing when we need him most

Not that Noel is any pillar of health either

Not a personal fan of Bogut, but if we're opting for the cheap and flexible route, I can see the benefit

Yeah, but there's not many options out there for cheap big men who don't cripple our max cap space next summer and are reliably healthy.

Bogut, whether you like him or not, is our best and most realistic trade target. He served the Warriors well enough even with his injuries.

[Curmudgeon]

So what are you willing to give up for a 5-month rental of Bogut? What do you think Dallas would demand?

Does Bogut put the Celtics over the top? What's the point?

[Edug27]

Why is Hayward the major play for so many posters? He is not good enough to make us contenders

There is no trade out there this season to make us contenders. Hayward makes us a better team.

[jrob23]

I've not seen one argument for Noel that is more convincing than any I've seen for Bogut (seen a lot more for the former too).

Give up a lot for Noel and have him leave in the summer, that or we pay him near the max for strictly defensive purposes, or give up very little for Bogut and have him fill more needs for our team while walking in the summer comfortably or returning for cheap.

Oh, and guess what? If we still really want Noel in the summer, we can still get him. Trading for Bogut gives us a lot of the short-term benefits that Noel does right now while also coming cheaper than Noel. He's also an expiring and doesn't hamper our ability to still get Noel if Danny wants him next summer. I hope he doesn't give him the max, but hey, if there's somehow a lot less demand than expected, we're not at all restricted in signing him.

There's several arguments going with Noel over Bogut. Noel is very young and still has plenty of upside. Bogut is just about done. He doesn't score or block shots. He's pretty much a one dimensional big man. Noel is actually fairly skilled offensively for where he is in his development. He can hit a mid range jumper. He runs the floor extremely well and can finish. Noel is the type of acquisition you hope stays because you and he have had the chance to audition each other to see if it's a good fit for both sides. I think the offers of Rozier, Young and non 1st rounders aren't getting it done. I think PHI will want either a comparable young talent/upside or a good pick. I'm assuming Brown, Yabusele and Zizic won't be available so it makes me think a contending team that does have guys they'll part with to load up for the playoffs might be a better fit. Maybe the Spurs offer Kyle Anderson or DeJounte Murray, Lakers off Zubac and Clarkson, CLE offers Felder and a 1st, Bulls off Valentine, Jazz offer Exum or Lyles, Thunder offer Sabonis and a few other teams trying to get into playoff picture might offer up some young guys i.e. PHO, MN, SAC, NOP. We're far down the list of teams that match up well imho.