If you draft a stinker and end up waiving him in the second year, this is such a miniscule price to pay for the possibility you draft a hit. You look at Desmond Bane (picked 30) or Toni Kukoc (picked 29) or Derek Fisher (picked 24) and it's hard to match the value from a good pick in that range by just signing an end of the bench type of FA like a Noah Vonleh or Broderic Thomas or whoever is available for the minimum.
Perhaps, to some, the idea that you get stuck with a bust and have to carry the dead weight on the 15 man roster for two years is a big risk, but to me the risk:reward is strongly in favor of making some draft picks in the 20-40 pick range and just signing your selections.
Hal14 wrote:winsomme2 wrote:flintsky21 wrote:
I would've given Brad a pass on that, but he traded down from the 32nd pick. Can't keep giving Brad the benefit of the doubt for late 2nd rounders not working out when he regularly trades down or out from higher draft positions.
Yeah the reason you don't trade down from 32 to 46 is because 46 is less likely to be a good player.
Picks in the 46-60 range are absolutely a lottery ticket. Most of them do not pan out.
Yes, obviously picks in the 32-45 range have a slightly higher hit rate. But even then, the hit rate in that range overall is very low..probably not much higher than the hit rate of a pick at 46 so it makes more sense to trade back, pick up 3 additional 2nd rounders (these picks are lottery tickets so by acquiring 3 additional 2nd rounders you increase your chances of winning the lottery by having 3 extra lottery tickets).
Not to mention a pick at 32 (when we already had pick 28)..that's 2 guys you're drafting in the top 32 which is more $..you can pay a guy much less $ who you draft at 46 than you can the guy drafted at 32.
32 is gonna be expecting a guaranteed 4 year rookie contract. Something you're probably not going to want to offer a player with such low odds of that player working out..especially when you're already giving that 4 year contract and guaranteed money to the player you take at 28.
Not to mention you also have Walsh, Scheierman and JD on the roster..hard to find enough playing time for all of these guys in addition to picks 28 and 32 for them to all actually succeed on your team, especially since we're a team that is trying to win. Sure, this is a bridge year but we still have good players like JB, Hauser, Pritchard, white which makes it hard to give tons of playing time to all of these unproven rookies and it's only a 1 year bridge year.
