redslastlaugh wrote:Hal14 wrote:I just think that in general, it seems like Brad's approach to team building is much more geared towards trades/free agency and less geared towards the draft..more geared towards bringing in established vets age 26-34 and less geared towards bringing in rookies/young kids who need to develop who are under age 23..
I wonder why that is? Does Brad so much prioritize each upcoming season and not emphasis a multiyear approach to team building? Does Brad just feel like rookies give too many headaches, being first time so far down the totem pole on a basketball team?
Does Brad not look at salary structure and understand that getting a good contributor on a 4 yr rookie deal is one of the only ways to get impact production for less money? Once players are 26-34 they are difficult to acquire and cost 3x or 5x or even 10x the annual salary of a player you drafted outside the lottery.
Brad used to talk about his respect for the 2014 Spurs. And that team had just drafted Kawhi, Patty Mills, Cory Joseph outside the lottery and those guys were contributing at under $2 million per year each. And they'd signed rookie players who they didn't draft but found off the scrap heap (Danny Green, Aron Baynes) and gave their first NBA contracts which also provided production on a budget salary.
When Brad became GM, I thought he'd follow this Spurs model but half a decade into his POBO tenure, Brad doesn't follow this model at all.
The 2014 spurs are probably not super relevant to winning a title in 2026 and beyond since that was such a long time ago.
To answer your question though, I think it's a risk vs reward thing. Brad knows that as long as Tatum/Brown are in their prime and as long as we have good role players like Al, d-white, etc., we're gonna be a top 5 team in the league which means we're not gonna get a 1st round pick any higher than 26.
I think Brad realizes that picks in the 26-60 range have a pretty low hit rate. He also realizes that for a contending team, a rookie picked in the 26-30 range is probably not going to be good enough or make enough impact to justify the amount of $ and the length of contract commitment 1st round picks get, which is why he has traded out of the 1st round 3 out of 4 years..he'd rather move that asset for a proven vet (white, brogdon, horford) and then if we traded out of the 1st round, well now we're looking at a 2nd round pick that has an even lower probability for becoming a good rotation player on a contender.
There's exceptions like the 2014 spurs or the 2025 thunder. But the 2024 celtics? We got Jrue, KP, Al and White via trade. Tatum and Brown were top 3 picks, something we're not gonna get again for a long time, probably. Hauser was good scouting and player development - an UDFA who was 24 as a rookie. Pritchard was 23 as a rookie..was a late 1st round pick, but was projected to go in the 2nd round.
2021 Bucks. Drafted Giannis top 15 pick, but basically all their other rotation guys were acquired via trade/FA and pretty much all of their rotation guys were age 26+. KNicks starting 5 this year all were acquired via trade/FA, all are age 26+..
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