Smart2Nesmith43 wrote:Bill Lumbergh wrote:Smart2Nesmith43 wrote:Zubac currently has the best touch of any center not named Nikola Jokic so there's that for starters. He also consistently ranks amongst the very best rim protectors in the league. If Kalkbrenner ever approaches the level of this version of Zubac on either end of the floor let alone both I would be shocked.
Noted. You would have been equally shocked that Zubac himself turned into what he has become. Kalkbrenner's raw tools, size and relative athleticism (relative to Zubac), such as it is, and his defense, make me think he has a highish floor for a pick at 28, and therefore good value, since most of them don't pan out. He's also a 4 time DPOY in the Big East. I see potential for him to be better than Zubac. You don't? It's fine.
I don't put ceilings on prospects, I just try to remain realistic about what the likelihood of a particular outcome is. We live in a world where a 15th pick toiling in the second division in Greece and a 41st pick that couldn't jump over a piece of paper turned themselves into the best players of their generation. And yes, a dude that was once traded at the deadline for an expiring Mike Muscala turned himself into one of the best centers in the league. Anything is possible as a great philosopher of our time would say. It's just not the most likely outcome and in fact it's notable because of how rare it is. It will remain shocking any time a late first round/second round pick (whether it's Kalkbrenner or someone else) reaches even Zubac's level.
You're talking historical likelihoods, and I am just talking about what I see and how much potential I think a guy has. From a historical and statistical likelihood perspective, you are absolutely correct, it is unlikely that a 28th pick will have the level of success that Zubac, himself a 32nd pick, has had, and yet, when I see these particular two players, I just don't see any reason physically, that Kalkbrenner couldn't have that level of success, at the very least, defensively. There's no physical reason why he could not, imo. Whether he develops to that level, who knows?
Beyond that, my larger point, without hyperfocusing on a Kalkbrenner Zubac comparison, is that I think Kalkbrenner has lower bust potential than a typical 28th pick, because of his size and defense, and would therefore be a good value pick at 28. I think he'll be in the league for a long time, in itself something unusual for a 28th pick.
There's no way to know how these guys careers will play out. Clearly how I see this guy's potential differs from how you see it, and I am totally okay with that. As always with these projections, it'll take years to find out.
