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Official Draft Thread 2015-16

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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#21 » by 165bows » Sun Aug 23, 2015 12:09 pm

SMTBSI wrote:
BannersOnly wrote:
Writebloc wrote:There have been plenty of terrible teams in the NBA that didn't want to tank. To think that teams in the NBA are only bad because they are trying to tank is naive.

Disagree. Teams going nowhere and in position to land a Top 3-5 pick almost always try to tank and lose over the the final 2-3 weeks of the season. It's why many people hate the NBA draft system. Brooklyn, even if they are really bad, will have a owner, GM and coach trying to pull out all the stops to win down the stretch to save themselves from e embarassment of handing the C's a top 3-5 pick. An extra 2-3 wins is the difference between #3 and #7 some years. Just calling it like I see it.

The Knicks went into last year genuinely trying to win, and came out of the gate 4-20 (and later 5-36). They were 5-33 when Melo was officially "shut down".

Now, they definitely ultimately went full in the tank, so you don't technically have an example here of a team being one of the worst all season long while trying not to be. But, their win% was better after shutting Melo down than before. I feel pretty confident they were absolutely going to have one of the worst records in the league, even if they had kept "trying".

They would have had to go 21-23, after the date Carmelo was shut down, just in order to not be in position for a top five pick. So, I think that's a pretty solid counter example.


(That being said, I agree that the majority of the bottom slots will usually be occupied by teams that are trying to be there. There's probably - wild guess - something like one surprise-genuinely-terrible team per year in the bottom five.)

The other example you are looking for is the Cavs landing the Wiggins pick. They were moving assets to get into the playoffs and still couldn't get better than the ninth lotto seed, then ultimately won the lotto.
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#22 » by Worm122 » Sun Aug 23, 2015 12:12 pm

If Brook Lopez gets hurt our pick will top 5 if he does not get hurt will be top 8.
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#23 » by Writebloc » Sun Aug 23, 2015 1:07 pm

165bows wrote:
SMTBSI wrote:
BannersOnly wrote:Disagree. Teams going nowhere and in position to land a Top 3-5 pick almost always try to tank and lose over the the final 2-3 weeks of the season. It's why many people hate the NBA draft system. Brooklyn, even if they are really bad, will have a owner, GM and coach trying to pull out all the stops to win down the stretch to save themselves from e embarassment of handing the C's a top 3-5 pick. An extra 2-3 wins is the difference between #3 and #7 some years. Just calling it like I see it.

The Knicks went into last year genuinely trying to win, and came out of the gate 4-20 (and later 5-36). They were 5-33 when Melo was officially "shut down".

Now, they definitely ultimately went full in the tank, so you don't technically have an example here of a team being one of the worst all season long while trying not to be. But, their win% was better after shutting Melo down than before. I feel pretty confident they were absolutely going to have one of the worst records in the league, even if they had kept "trying".

They would have had to go 21-23, after the date Carmelo was shut down, just in order to not be in position for a top five pick. So, I think that's a pretty solid counter example.


(That being said, I agree that the majority of the bottom slots will usually be occupied by teams that are trying to be there. There's probably - wild guess - something like one surprise-genuinely-terrible team per year in the bottom five.)

The other example you are looking for is the Cavs landing the Wiggins pick. They were moving assets to get into the playoffs and still couldn't get better than the ninth lotto seed, then ultimately won the lotto.


So other question here is aside from the 76ers who is going into the season with tanking being their strategy? Even the teams that are the usual suspects have made moves to be better. Heck, even teams that probably should be tanking made moves to compete.

Charlotte - Not tanking
Knicks - Not tanking
Orlando - Not tanking
Portland - Will tank by default, but not a horrible group of players
Lakers - Should tank will be bad, not tanking
Dallas - Not tanking, will be bad
Denver - Will be bad in the west, will probably eventually tank, not tanking yet

That's a slew of teams I just rattled off whose intentions are to compete, most of them will be better than the Nets, (all of them probably should be.) There are some that will probably cut bait and nose dive, but the direction of their franchises right now is attempting to get into the playoffs. This will just push the Nets further down. The way I'm looking at it:
Rest of the league


Nets
76ers (only because they actively are trying to lose)
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#24 » by ConstableGeneva » Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:39 pm

[tweet]https://twitter.com/RealGM/status/637000674341863424[/tweet]
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#25 » by 165bows » Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:29 am

[tweet]https://twitter.com/nbadraftwass/status/636905914029735936[/tweet]
Potential top 10 pick Henry Ellenson.
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#26 » by Gomes3PC » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:32 am

I really like Skal, Diallo, Dunn, Ingram and Ellenson in this draft. Wouldn't touch Ben Simmons with a 10' pole - he's basically Kyle Anderson IMO. Further down, guys I'd be following closely would be Jake Layman, Domanatas Sabonis, Justin Jackson and Nigel Hayes - all fantastic athletes who need more refinement. Demetrius Jackson as well, but he seems like a guy with poor feel for the game.
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#27 » by 165bows » Sat Aug 29, 2015 3:59 am

Gomes3PC wrote:I really like Skal, Diallo, Dunn, Ingram and Ellenson in this draft. Wouldn't touch Ben Simmons with a 10' pole - he's basically Kyle Anderson IMO. Further down, guys I'd be following closely would be Jake Layman, Domanatas Sabonis, Justin Jackson and Nigel Hayes - all fantastic athletes who need more refinement. Demetrius Jackson as well, but he seems like a guy with poor feel for the game.

I like that first list, plus Bender and Murray are interesting. Simmons I'm staying pretty open minded on. Obviously he's got all the hype but he could also be a rich man's Evan Turner. I'm probably overly intrigued by Diallo for some reason.
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#28 » by Celtsfan1980 » Sat Aug 29, 2015 7:12 pm

Do we like players late in the lottery(10-14)?
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#29 » by Gomes3PC » Mon Aug 31, 2015 11:28 am

Celtsfan1980 wrote:Do we like players late in the lottery(10-14)?


That's too early to tell, because most of the time, late lotto picks are guys who rise up the boards from out of nowhere at the start of the year, or are early lotto guys who slip due to injury/poor performance. For example, DX has Nigel Hayes 21st, but with a strong year I have a hard time seeing 20 players getting picked before him.
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#30 » by Gomes3PC » Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:48 pm

Celtsfan1980 wrote:Do we like players late in the lottery(10-14)?

To expound on this, here was DX's draft board at this time last year vs. where they were ultimately drafted:

1. Okafor (3)
2. Mudiay (7)
3. Towns (1)
4. Oubre (15)
5. Alexander (UDFA!)
6. Hezonja (5)
7. Porzingis (4)
8. Winslow (10)
9. Johnson (8)
10. WCS (6)
11. Dekker (18)
12. Harrell (32)
13. Walker (UDFA)
14. Tyus Jones (24)
15. RHJ (23)
16. Marc Garcia (didn't declare)
17. Turner (10)
18. LeVert (didn't declare)
19. Ilimane Diop (didn't declare)
20. Portis (22)

Simply put, there's tons of variation between now and next June. 10 months and 35+ games in the NCAAs will change the perception a ton. Someone like DeAngelo Russell will skyrocket, someone like Cliff Alexander will plummet.
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#31 » by shawn unkempt » Mon Aug 31, 2015 4:47 pm

I don't think I can bring myself to follow the draft again this year. I can't help but feel we'll all be disappointed with where the Nets pick ends up.
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#32 » by Slartibartfast » Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:40 pm

shawn unkempt wrote:I don't think I can bring myself to follow the draft again this year. I can't help but feel we'll all be disappointed with where the Nets pick ends up.


Depends on your expectations. If you are expecting top 5, it could get dicey. But 6-10 is realistic. And 11-14 is outright conservative.
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#33 » by 165bows » Mon Aug 31, 2015 6:07 pm

shawn unkempt wrote:I don't think I can bring myself to follow the draft again this year. I can't help but feel we'll all be disappointed with where the Nets pick ends up.

I feel like that except the reason being in case they trade out and it makes it a waste of time.

Who am I kidding, I'll still follow it though.
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#34 » by Gomes3PC » Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:07 pm

I love college basketball, so I will continue to track it. The Euro guys I never have a clue about, so you just kind of have to trust the scouts on them.
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#35 » by 165bows » Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:11 pm

Gomes3PC wrote:
Celtsfan1980 wrote:Do we like players late in the lottery(10-14)?


That's too early to tell, because most of the time, late lotto picks are guys who rise up the boards from out of nowhere at the start of the year, or are early lotto guys who slip due to injury/poor performance. For example, DX has Nigel Hayes 21st, but with a strong year I have a hard time seeing 20 players getting picked before him.


You think Hayes can play SF at the pro level or a 4 man only?
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#36 » by Gomes3PC » Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:14 pm

I think he can play a hybrid 3/4. Look at the best SFs - many are hybrids. Lebron, Draymond, Kawhi, Millsap, Melo, - all of them play both PF and SF almost equally now.
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#37 » by 2Mas » Tue Sep 1, 2015 3:01 am

Gomes3PC wrote:I think he can play a hybrid 3/4. Look at the best SFs - many are hybrids. Lebron, Draymond, Kawhi, Millsap, Melo, - all of them play both PF and SF almost equally now.

Yeah agreed. But i think more of Millsap of being a PF who moves like a SF, compared to lbj or melo who are 4's but can play the 4.

The only thing is that he's a body of a SF but game of a PF. Idk how that'd translate to the league. Idk. I think he's gonna be a good role player, but just dont see stud potential. Like Harrison Barnes type. Good 14-7 type good role player.


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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#38 » by KJandHondo35 » Tue Sep 1, 2015 12:03 pm

165bows wrote:
Gomes3PC wrote:I really like Skal, Diallo, Dunn, Ingram and Ellenson in this draft. Wouldn't touch Ben Simmons with a 10' pole - he's basically Kyle Anderson IMO. Further down, guys I'd be following closely would be Jake Layman, Domanatas Sabonis, Justin Jackson and Nigel Hayes - all fantastic athletes who need more refinement. Demetrius Jackson as well, but he seems like a guy with poor feel for the game.

I like that first list, plus Bender and Murray are interesting. Simmons I'm staying pretty open minded on. Obviously he's got all the hype but he could also be a rich man's Evan Turner. I'm probably overly intrigued by Diallo for some reason.

I was really thinking that also, Simmons could very well be a 6'10", more athletic Evan Turner. That has the potential to be a great player but could also be ehh. I think Jaylen could be a force on both sides and I’m really into the skills and length of Ingram. I hope the pick is better than seven where Ford has us right now but his choice of Malik Pope I’m in favor of. The kid had low usage in his freshman season at San Diego State but ended up shooting 42% from three (1.6 attempts per game) 45% FG overall and his measurements are ridiculous, 6’9” – 7’2” wingspan – 9’0.75” standing reach as a SF…
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#39 » by 165bows » Tue Sep 1, 2015 12:31 pm

2Mas wrote:
Gomes3PC wrote:I think he can play a hybrid 3/4. Look at the best SFs - many are hybrids. Lebron, Draymond, Kawhi, Millsap, Melo, - all of them play both PF and SF almost equally now.

Yeah agreed. But i think more of Millsap of being a PF who moves like a SF, compared to lbj or melo who are 4's but can play the 4.

The only thing is that he's a body of a SF but game of a PF. Idk how that'd translate to the league. Idk. I think he's gonna be a good role player, but just dont see stud potential. Like Harrison Barnes type. Good 14-7 type good role player.


Good points and it makes me think his best potential use in the NBA is actually more of a Dray Green type guy rather than Barnes. I don't think he is as strong as Green and his college rebounding numbers aren't as good.

But I could see that being where he could hit a high potential, ie being versatile like Green on D (but not as good on the big end of things), while potentially being a bit better on offense. They are pretty much similar dimensions in height and wingspan, no posted reach on Hayes yet though.
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Re: Official Draft Thread 2015-16 

Post#40 » by Fidel Sarcasmo » Tue Sep 1, 2015 12:52 pm

Ben Simmons will run away with the 1st draft pick next year after his first and only year at LSU. He's a PG in a Power forwards body. Lebron was the same thing coming out of high school.

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