The Trade Thread, 2016-17 (2.0)

[Curmudgeon]

Orlando loves Gordon. He is not being moved.

Meh. All teams say they love their players, yet trades happen all the time. The 6-11 Magic have lost 4 in a row and are headed out for 5 games on the road. They go to San Antonio and Memphis, then (fortunately for them) finish up with Detroit and two tomato cans. Then they play the Celtics at home on Dec. 7.

Byombo is now starting ahead of Vucevic, Gordon has shot 25.6% over the last 5 games, and Hezonja isn't playing (6 min per game, including two DNP-CD's). This is a team that needs to make a move much more than the Celtics do, and frankly I wouldn't give up IT or AB for anyone on that team. I might have interest in Hezonja if I could get him cheaply, but that's about it.

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

I think Bradley might be going. He's going to command north of $20 million /yr next year. Same thing with Isaiah. We can't pay $40-50 million for a backcourt shorter than 6-3.

[Banks2Pierce]

Meh. All teams say they love their players, yet trades happen all the time. The 6-11 Magic have lost 4 in a row and are headed out for 5 games on the road. They go to San Antonio and Memphis, then (fortunately for them) finish up with Detroit and two tomato cans. Then they play the Celtics at home on Dec. 7.

Yeah, was just checking this out. I don't think Hennigan will make it to Christmas. Gordon's the only needle mover for me and it's very obvious that he is playing out of position and with horrible fits in both the frontcourt and backcourt. Their other guys are possibilities if we swing a trade for a major star and stop caring about 2017 cap flexibility.

[cellar-door]

Ainge is in a weird spot. The guy who they would be best off trading long term is IT. However he's probably the hardest to replace internally.
Long term IT makes it hard to see this as a championship team. He's a great guy, can create his own shot etc. However, in the playoffs teams really took advantage of him on defense, and it's much harder to hide him than during the regular season. He also had more trouble getting to the rim and the line in the playoffs when D tightens up.
Unfortunately, I don't think anybody thinks Rozier and Smart can really be the two PGs on this team yet, and there isn't anyone who can replace IT's ability to get in the lane.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Ainge is in a weird spot. The guy who they would be best off trading long term is IT. However he's probably the hardest to replace internally.
Long term IT makes it hard to see this as a championship team. He's a great guy, can create his own shot etc. However, in the playoffs teams really took advantage of him on defense, and it's much harder to hide him than during the regular season. He also had more trouble getting to the rim and the line in the playoffs when D tightens up.
Unfortunately, I don't think anybody thinks Rozier and Smart can really be the two PGs on this team yet, and there isn't anyone who can replace IT's ability to get in the lane.

Here's a sad deal I'd do - IT/Jerebko/Olynyk for Vucevic, Gordon. Might have to tweak a little, but I'd take on Vucevic's money for the rebounding and interior scoring, and Gordon.

[Celts17Pride]

The writing that is on the wall IMO is Bradley and/or Crowder on the move for a stud and sign Gordon Hayward this summer.

Don't know that I like it. Depends who the stud is I guess.

[Zaschrona]

I really don't see a problem with paying IT/AB/Smart trio $60m per year if we have Horford and a stud like Cousins playing as our bigmans. That is a team that can beat Cleveland. We can then start Smart in playoffs, while we move IT to the bench.

[Banks2Pierce]

I really don't see a problem with paying IT/AB/Smart trio $60m per year if we have Horford and a stud like Cousins playing as our bigmans. That is a team that can beat Cleveland. We can then start Smart in playoffs, while we move IT to the bench.

Yeah, paying them big money can be very good or very bad. There are tons of permutations that can happen between now and 2018 that would decide that.

[OFWGKTA]

Ainge is in a weird spot. The guy who they would be best off trading long term is IT. However he's probably the hardest to replace internally.
Long term IT makes it hard to see this as a championship team. He's a great guy, can create his own shot etc. However, in the playoffs teams really took advantage of him on defense, and it's much harder to hide him than during the regular season. He also had more trouble getting to the rim and the line in the playoffs when D tightens up.
Unfortunately, I don't think anybody thinks Rozier and Smart can really be the two PGs on this team yet, and there isn't anyone who can replace IT's ability to get in the lane.

I don't think he's remotely the best off trading, the value he brings to the team itself will far outweigh what he garners in a trade (undervalued as a player, irreplaceable production versus contract for the next 1.5 years). Both appearances in the playoffs he was going against top-5 defenses, who all but ignored every other Celtic on offense. Despite this, he was still able to get to the line more often than in either correlating regular season (6.5, 6.6FTA versus 8.0, 7.8). I believe we'll see another Isaiah in the playoffs with the improved shooting and addition of Horford.

Defenses shouldn't be able to do this if we're healthy:

[bigfoot_cryptozoology]

This draft we will have to make a difficult decision if we don't trade the pick. Draft is loaded with elite PG prospects (Ball,Fultz,Smith,Fox) and wing prospects (Tatum,Jackson,Bridges,Isaac) but only 1 big with injury concerns.

No, no, no, don't leave out Markkanen as a Big... and Bolden from Duke hasn't played yet, so we have to see if he can crack the Top 7 or so, though it is one of the strongest draft for PGs in a long while, maybe 20 years.

[ThirtyFour]

Ainge is in a weird spot. The guy who they would be best off trading long term is IT. However he's probably the hardest to replace internally.
Long term IT makes it hard to see this as a championship team. He's a great guy, can create his own shot etc. However, in the playoffs teams really took advantage of him on defense, and it's much harder to hide him than during the regular season. He also had more trouble getting to the rim and the line in the playoffs when D tightens up.
Unfortunately, I don't think anybody thinks Rozier and Smart can really be the two PGs on this team yet, and there isn't anyone who can replace IT's ability to get in the lane.

I don't think he's remotely the best off trading, the value he brings to the team itself will far outweigh what he garners in a trade (undervalued as a player, irreplaceable production versus contract for the next 1.5 years). Both appearances in the playoffs he was going against top-5 defenses, who all but ignored every other Celtic on offense. Despite this, he was still able to get to the line more often than in either correlating regular season (6.5, 6.6FTA versus 8.0, 7.8). I believe we'll see another Isaiah in the playoffs with the improved shooting and addition of Horford.

Defenses shouldn't be able to do this if we're healthy:

Plus if you have additional scoring threats to alleviate the pressure on IT then it should open him up to score more freely. AB is finally scoring on a more consistent basis, so in my mind, ideally we keep those two and horford and add to it, making all other players eligible for trade, and if you can't find a good piece, you leave it alone, maybe add a rim protector. Patience is what got us here, I'd hate to pull scoring off our team just to add an unknown.

[CelticFaninLBC]

The writing that is on the wall IMO is Bradley and/or Crowder on the move for a stud and sign Gordon Hayward this summer.

Don't know that I like it. Depends who the stud is I guess.

1 or 2 of Bradley, Crowder & Smart is probably dealt for a big, and they probably sign Hayward in the summer..

[The_Ghost_of_JB]

There is no writing all the wall. Ainge is looking to make a big trade just like 29 other GMs. Truth is I have lost faith in Ainge trading for stud player after witnessing him draft like 42 guys the past two years because he couldn't come up with a trade.

[cellar-door]

Ainge is in a weird spot. The guy who they would be best off trading long term is IT. However he's probably the hardest to replace internally.
Long term IT makes it hard to see this as a championship team. He's a great guy, can create his own shot etc. However, in the playoffs teams really took advantage of him on defense, and it's much harder to hide him than during the regular season. He also had more trouble getting to the rim and the line in the playoffs when D tightens up.
Unfortunately, I don't think anybody thinks Rozier and Smart can really be the two PGs on this team yet, and there isn't anyone who can replace IT's ability to get in the lane.

I don't think he's remotely the best off trading, the value he brings to the team itself will far outweigh what he garners in a trade (undervalued as a player, irreplaceable production versus contract for the next 1.5 years). Both appearances in the playoffs he was going against top-5 defenses, who all but ignored every other Celtic on offense. Despite this, he was still able to get to the line more often than in either correlating regular season (6.5, 6.6FTA versus 8.0, 7.8). I believe we'll see another Isaiah in the playoffs with the improved shooting and addition of Horford.

Defenses shouldn't be able to do this if we're healthy:

Playoff teams usually have good defenses.
Though, as I noted, his offense is a secondary concern for me. The real one is that good teams isolate him on defense and ruthlessly exploit him over and over again.

[CelticsLV]

Speaking about Cousins, i don't see Celtics as sure frontrunner if he's available. Watch how Blazers season continues. Lillard, McCollum duo might not work at all. They are both very similar - scoring, ball dominant, bad defense guards. Then they sign Turner to crazy long term deal who also needs ball in his hands to be effective. Unless injured Aminu and Ezili turn them around i wouldn't be surprised to see some roster balancing and McCollum getting traded, though his poison pill contract would require some creativity in trades.

[OFWGKTA]

Ainge is in a weird spot. The guy who they would be best off trading long term is IT. However he's probably the hardest to replace internally.
Long term IT makes it hard to see this as a championship team. He's a great guy, can create his own shot etc. However, in the playoffs teams really took advantage of him on defense, and it's much harder to hide him than during the regular season. He also had more trouble getting to the rim and the line in the playoffs when D tightens up.
Unfortunately, I don't think anybody thinks Rozier and Smart can really be the two PGs on this team yet, and there isn't anyone who can replace IT's ability to get in the lane.

I don't think he's remotely the best off trading, the value he brings to the team itself will far outweigh what he garners in a trade (undervalued as a player, irreplaceable production versus contract for the next 1.5 years). Both appearances in the playoffs he was going against top-5 defenses, who all but ignored every other Celtic on offense. Despite this, he was still able to get to the line more often than in either correlating regular season (6.5, 6.6FTA versus 8.0, 7.8). I believe we'll see another Isaiah in the playoffs with the improved shooting and addition of Horford.

Defenses shouldn't be able to do this if we're healthy:

Playoff teams usually have good defenses.
Though, as I noted, his offense is a secondary concern for me. The real one is that good teams isolate him on defense and ruthlessly exploit him over and over again.

I agree he gets exploited at times, but looking at the numbers from Irving/Smith/Teague/Korver in the playoffs, none of them were exactly lighting the world on fire:

Teague: 16.5/6/2 on 40/24/86

Korver: 12/6/1.5 on 48/45/100

Irving: 23/4/5 on 43/48/80

Smith 10/3/1 on 37/27/50

Korver and Irving basically had their normal production, Teague and Smith much less so. Definitely not being "ruthlessly exploited" regardless of which of these guys he was covering more. His DBPM also improved in the playoffs both years versus the regular season (-3.9 to -.5 and -2 to -1.7). These numbers don't really reflect him being any more taken advantage of in the playoffs defensively than in the regular season.

[Slartibartfast]

So what is the hierarchy of likely traded players here? The team is too small in the back court (the article discusses the Spurs trade of George Hill for K. Leonard, motivated by the inability to play Parker/Hill/Ginobili together consistently), referencing the following:

Their backcourt rotation features the abundantly talented — but small — Isaiah Thomas (5-foot-9), Avery Bradley (6-2) and Terry Rozier (6-2), and while Marcus Smart (6-4) is doing a much better job running an offense, he’s often being called upon to guard small forwards and even power forwards.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2016/11/bulpett_reaching_next_level_no_small_feat_for_celtics

Explains the offseason trade push for Butler, Hayward and Middleton - Danny wants some size on the perimeter.

Problem is Rozier and Smart aren't exactly hot trade commodities. This is really an IT or AB debate if we're talking about a big time size upgrade on the perimeter.

I'm more partial to trading IT, as sacrilegious as that may be around here. I think AB's easier to work with as a long-term fixture and thus more likely to be worth the 2018 payday. And IT's size issue are the most problematic by far of any of our perimeter players.

I wonder if we could get Washington to pick up the phone on an IT for Wall based swap. Same kind of thinking as the Marbury/Kidd swap.

[TheOGJabroni]

The writing that is on the wall IMO is Bradley and/or Crowder on the move for a stud and sign Gordon Hayward this summer.

Don't know that I like it. Depends who the stud is I guess.

Pretty much, this. Can we afford to do all that though?

[Slartibartfast]

I don't think he's remotely the best off trading, the value he brings to the team itself will far outweigh what he garners in a trade (undervalued as a player, irreplaceable production versus contract for the next 1.5 years). Both appearances in the playoffs he was going against top-5 defenses, who all but ignored every other Celtic on offense. Despite this, he was still able to get to the line more often than in either correlating regular season (6.5, 6.6FTA versus 8.0, 7.8). I believe we'll see another Isaiah in the playoffs with the improved shooting and addition of Horford.

Defenses shouldn't be able to do this if we're healthy:

Playoff teams usually have good defenses.
Though, as I noted, his offense is a secondary concern for me. The real one is that good teams isolate him on defense and ruthlessly exploit him over and over again.

I agree he gets exploited at times, but looking at the numbers from Irving/Smith/Teague/Korver in the playoffs, none of them were exactly lighting the world on fire:

Teague: 16.5/6/2 on 40/24/86

Korver: 12/6/1.5 on 48/45/100

Irving: 23/4/5 on 43/48/80

Smith 10/3/1 on 37/27/50

Korver and Irving basically had their normal production, Teague and Smith much less so. Definitely not being "ruthlessly exploited" regardless of which of these guys he was covering more. His DBPM also improved in the playoffs both years versus the regular season (-3.9 to -.5 and -2 to -1.7). These numbers don't really reflect him being any more taken advantage of in the playoffs defensively than in the regular season.

IT's a much bigger problem from a team defensive standpoint. We usually hide his man D against dangerous match-ups by putting AB on the ball-handler and giving IT the least dangerous perimeter guy.

But you can't hide his team D - his contests don't even register, he can't switch on picks, he can't rebound or box out, etc.

[Slartibartfast]

Ainge is in a weird spot. The guy who they would be best off trading long term is IT. However he's probably the hardest to replace internally.
Long term IT makes it hard to see this as a championship team. He's a great guy, can create his own shot etc. However, in the playoffs teams really took advantage of him on defense, and it's much harder to hide him than during the regular season. He also had more trouble getting to the rim and the line in the playoffs when D tightens up.
Unfortunately, I don't think anybody thinks Rozier and Smart can really be the two PGs on this team yet, and there isn't anyone who can replace IT's ability to get in the lane.

That's why you trade IT for a bigger perimeter guy - somebody like John Wall. Or maybe for a combination of guys, like an IT/Rozier for Rubio/LaVine package