What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling?

[100proof]

a top 20 player and a top 10 player on the same team is crazy.

[Floody100]

More than anything, i LOVE how this dude is handling the Tatum ascension. Most young guys who have played as well as JB has would get pissy and act miserable, but he has been the total opposite.

All the attention JT is getting on the court is just going to make Jaylen more dangerous, I'm excited to see it. I don't understand why most advanced stats hate JB as much as they do. RPM/RAPM/PIPM/Raptor definitely sell him quite a bit short. His defense in that Lakers game was arousing, he shut Bam the hell down a few weeks back too. I get on him for his defense at times, but it's only because when he is on defensively, it's a thing of beauty.

When he’s defending the primary ball handler at the top of the key & starts clapping to himself I know he’s switched on defensively.

[celticfan42487]

To me, people always underestimate ceilings and conflate ‘ceiling’ with ‘possible, but unrealistic outcome’.

His ceiling? As in best possible development? 25+ PPG, 8+ RPG and 4+ APG on 60+ TS% with elite defense. Possible but unrealistic outcome? 22 PPG, 7 RPG, 3 APG on 60+ TS% with very good but sometimes inconsistent defense.

I see him as a top 25/fringe all-star using the latter definition. But the former? Top 10, easily.

This is a good point. We use "ceiling" incorrectly here, myself included. In fact, I tend to discuss the high end of what i consider to be a likely outcome when pondering the question of ceilings, when that isn't what it means at all.

Part of me hates to even use the real definition because i don't like to cap guys, and also because my takes are generally middle-of-the-road and wishy-washy.

Youre right. JB COULD be a top 10 guy, even though most of us would agree that this is unlikely. But it certainly isn't IMPOSSIBLE based on what we've seen.

I'd say 99.9% of players never reach their ceiling. Achieving perfection, even in terms of one's own ability, is nearly impossible.

To be fair, it's illogical to talk about a ceiling that is only reached every even 1% of times.

That's a waste of everyone's time and thought.

[SmartWentCrazy]

To me, people always underestimate ceilings and conflate ‘ceiling’ with ‘possible, but unrealistic outcome’.

His ceiling? As in best possible development? 25+ PPG, 8+ RPG and 4+ APG on 60+ TS% with elite defense. Possible but unrealistic outcome? 22 PPG, 7 RPG, 3 APG on 60+ TS% with very good but sometimes inconsistent defense.

I see him as a top 25/fringe all-star using the latter definition. But the former? Top 10, easily.

This is a good point. We use "ceiling" incorrectly here, myself included. In fact, I tend to discuss the high end of what i consider to be a likely outcome when pondering the question of ceilings, when that isn't what it means at all.

Part of me hates to even use the real definition because i don't like to cap guys, and also because my takes are generally middle-of-the-road and wishy-washy.

Youre right. JB COULD be a top 10 guy, even though most of us would agree that this is unlikely. But it certainly isn't IMPOSSIBLE based on what we've seen.

I'd say 99.9% of players never reach their ceiling. Achieving perfection, even in terms of one's own ability, is nearly impossible.

To be fair, it's illogical to talk about a ceiling that is only reached every even 1% of times.

That's a waste of everyone's time and thought.

Most top 5/10 players hit their ceiling.

Giannis hit his. Curry. LeBron. Harden. Kawhi. Paul George. AD... I can keep going if you want.

[MagicBagley18]

Top 20-25 fringe all star on his best years.

a top 20 player is not a fringe allstar

He was a fringe allstar this season. If it wasnt for Kemba and Tatum he could have been an allstar, couldnt have 3 players in on the same team,

Yea, call me when he makes the team. All I hear is excuses. Like I said, fringe all star. Maybe over the course Of his career he makes 1 or 2.

[MagicBagley18]

brown is a good player and he’s had a very good year. He’s improved a lot. Earlier this year I said I’d trade him for an established all star and I caught flack. Myself and some others said Tatum is on a different tier than brown. People laughed, and said well browns numbers are equal to Tatums so they must have same trade value.

They didn’t then and they don’t now. Brown is a good player. You don’t need to knock him to talk about how good Tatums been but I stil stand by my statement. I would trade brown for an established all star to get the team to the next level as long as the player coming in didn’t stunt or not mesh with Tatum.

Celtics moving forward- everythjgn is about fit with Tatum and maximizing his potential. You don’t just trade brown to trade him but he’s not untouchable.

[Celts17Pride]

Tatum and Brown are untouchable. They could easily become the prime Leonard and George duo. Tatum has just blossomed earlier. Jaylen Brown has shown great improvement this year and will be even better when he is 25-26 years old. Celtics are very fortunate to have them both. Both will be multiple all-stars.

[SuperDeluxe]

Tatum - Top 3 (maybe 1 one day)

Are Zion and Doncic retiring soon?

[5InOfLouisville]

Tatum - Top 3 (maybe 1 one day)

Are Zion and Doncic retiring soon?

You don't think Tatum COULD be better than both?

He's already the best scorer. He is better overall than Zion right now. His D blows Doncic's out of the water

[100proof]

Top 20-25 fringe all star on his best years.

a top 20 player is not a fringe allstar

He was a fringe allstar this season. If it wasnt for Kemba and Tatum he could have been an allstar, couldnt have 3 players in on the same team,

Yea, call me when he makes the team. All I hear is excuses. Like I said, fringe all star. Maybe over the course Of his career he makes 1 or 2.

A top 20-25 player in the NBA makes the allstar team.
You cannot be a top 20-25 player in the league and not make allstar teams unless all of a sudden the best 30 players in the Nba are all guards, no forwards and no centers.

Look at the top 25 player rankings for the last decade and I would guess that not too many on that list did not make an allstar team (taking injuries into account and potential gross overratings - Draymond Green)

Over the next 5 years, if Jaylen hits a top 20-25 player he is absolutely an allstar.

[100proof]

brown is a good player and he’s had a very good year. He’s improved a lot. Earlier this year I said I’d trade him for an established all star and I caught flack. Myself and some others said Tatum is on a different tier than brown. People laughed, and said well browns numbers are equal to Tatums so they must have same trade value.

They didn’t then and they don’t now. Brown is a good player. You don’t need to knock him to talk about how good Tatums been but I stil stand by my statement. I would trade brown for an established all star to get the team to the next level as long as the player coming in didn’t stunt or not mesh with Tatum.

Celtics moving forward- everythjgn is about fit with Tatum and maximizing his potential. You don’t just trade brown to trade him but he’s not untouchable.

No one is untouchable unless you have Lebron, young MJ etc.

the Jays are perfect together, one weakness is the others strength. They are a perfect pairing. They are both untouchable

[SuperDeluxe]

Tatum - Top 3 (maybe 1 one day)

Are Zion and Doncic retiring soon?

You don't think Tatum COULD be better than both?

He's already the best scorer. He is better overall than Zion right now. His D blows Doncic's out of the water

I think the three of them will be awesome, but in my opinion Zion and Doncic will be above Tatum when all is said and done.

Zion has only a couple games under his belt and is performing as a well-oiled killing machine. The only thing that may hold him back is his health. I see this kid as a generational talent.

Doncic has an incredibly polished game - he's like a Ben Simmons who can shoot like Steph Curry. He's averaging almost a triple double in only his second season. His defense is a work in progress but still. If you put a gun to my head, I'll take him over Tatum 99 times of 100.

[Wes-J]

brown is a good player and he’s had a very good year. He’s improved a lot. Earlier this year I said I’d trade him for an established all star and I caught flack. Myself and some others said Tatum is on a different tier than brown. People laughed, and said well browns numbers are equal to Tatums so they must have same trade value.

They didn’t then and they don’t now. Brown is a good player. You don’t need to knock him to talk about how good Tatums been but I stil stand by my statement. I would trade brown for an established all star to get the team to the next level as long as the player coming in didn’t stunt or not mesh with Tatum.

Celtics moving forward- everythjgn is about fit with Tatum and maximizing his potential. You don’t just trade brown to trade him but he’s not untouchable.

Stop. Everybody knew Tatum would be great at some point.

[5InOfLouisville]

Are Zion and Doncic retiring soon?

You don't think Tatum COULD be better than both?

He's already the best scorer. He is better overall than Zion right now. His D blows Doncic's out of the water

I think the three of them will be awesome, but in my opinion Zion and Doncic will be above Tatum when all is said and done.

Zion has only a couple games under his belt and is performing as a well-oiled killing machine. The only thing that may hold him back is his health. I see this kid as a generational talent.

Doncic has an incredibly polished game - he's like a Ben Simmons who can shoot like Steph Curry. He's averaging almost a triple double in only his second season. His defense is a work in progress but still. If you put a gun to my head, I'll take him over Tatum 99 times of 100.

For the record, while I don't agree, i can't say anything you said isnt reasonable. all 3 are pretty good young players.

[3D Chess]

Doncic has an incredibly polished game - he's like a Ben Simmons who can shoot like Steph Curry.

Whoa now.

Career and season 32% 3Pt shooter, ~75% FT shooter.

Curry is a CAREER 43% 3 point shooter on crazy volume and crazy difficult shots (has never shot below 41% on a season), career 90% FT shooter.

Luka might take shots like Curry, but he sure as heck don't shoot like him (nobody does, or ever has).

[24istheLAW]

I think his ceiling is Jimmy Butler. And I think he'll hit it.

Brown has had an incredibly predictable career in a way.

He was the #2 ranked player out of HS. He was the #3 pick out of college. He's a consensus top 3 player from his draft class in the NBA now.

The appeal of him as a draft pick was that even though he's raw and clumsy, he'd work hard and improve his shot and handle. How his career has played out so far, is exactly what you'd have described the best-case scenario if you were making the case for picking Jaylen Brown.

Slart comped him to Nets Richard Jefferson when we picked him, which seemed appropriate at the time, and is just about what he actually is now. Like Jimmy Butler, I think he'll be an All-Star, whose shotmaking is just too limited to be The Man, and whose off-ball offense is too limited to really be the Pippen to someone's Jordan, or the Klay to someone's Steph. But he's scoring an efficient 20 ppg at 23 years old, there's no reason to think he won't improve.

I certainly don't think he's untouchable. I def question his ability to be at his best as a supporting guy. But he's a good one and there's really no reason to be having such spirited debates about him on here all the time, other than to argue for its own sake. I guess the Marcus Smart arguments got stale?

[Gomes3PC]

I think his ceiling is Jimmy Butler. And I think he'll hit it.

Brown has had an incredibly predictable career in a way.

He was the #2 ranked player out of HS. He was the #3 pick out of college. He's a consensus top 3 player from his draft class in the NBA now.

The appeal of him as a draft pick was that even though he's raw and clumsy, he'd work hard and improve his shot and handle. How his career has played out so far, is exactly what you'd have described the best-case scenario if you were making the case for picking Jaylen Brown.

Slart comped him to Nets Richard Jefferson when we picked him, which seemed appropriate at the time, and is just about what he actually is now. Like Jimmy Butler, I think he'll be an All-Star, whose shotmaking is just too limited to be The Man, and whose off-ball offense is too limited to really be the Pippen to someone's Jordan, or the Klay to someone's Steph. But he's scoring an efficient 20 ppg at 23 years old, there's no reason to think he won't improve.

I certainly don't think he's untouchable. I def question his ability to be at his best as a supporting guy. But he's a good one and there's really no reason to be having such spirited debates about him on here all the time, other than to argue for its own sake. I guess the Marcus Smart arguments got stale?

He's got to do three things to become Jimmy Butler:

1. Draw a LOT more fouls
2. Play a lot better team defense
3. Become more of a facilitator

The latter two I think he will grow into, as did Butler (especially the passing/facilitation). The first, I just don't know. He's taken a leap this year, but his FT rate is pretty much consistent his whole career at 28%. Butler's FTr is almost 2x that on his career at 50%. So to be the kind of efficient scorer Butler is, he's either going to have to finish at the rim way better (unlikely since Butler is a 65% shooter in the paint) or become a meaningfully better/higher volume 3 PT shooter (this I think is his best bet, as Jimmy is a subpar 3PT shooter).

[Wes-J]

Who even cares about the Butler comp? He just needs to be the best version of himself and be Tatum's Robin. That's plenty good enough.

[MagicBagley18]

a top 20 player is not a fringe allstar

He was a fringe allstar this season. If it wasnt for Kemba and Tatum he could have been an allstar, couldnt have 3 players in on the same team,

Yea, call me when he makes the team. All I hear is excuses. Like I said, fringe all star. Maybe over the course Of his career he makes 1 or 2.

A top 20-25 player in the NBA makes the allstar team.
You cannot be a top 20-25 player in the league and not make allstar teams unless all of a sudden the best 30 players in the Nba are all guards, no forwards and no centers.

Look at the top 25 player rankings for the last decade and I would guess that not too many on that list did not make an allstar team (taking injuries into account and potential gross overratings - Draymond Green)

Over the next 5 years, if Jaylen hits a top 20-25 player he is absolutely an allstar.

Like I said, when he makes the all star team let me know and you can have all the glory

[MagicBagley18]

brown is a good player and he’s had a very good year. He’s improved a lot. Earlier this year I said I’d trade him for an established all star and I caught flack. Myself and some others said Tatum is on a different tier than brown. People laughed, and said well browns numbers are equal to Tatums so they must have same trade value.

They didn’t then and they don’t now. Brown is a good player. You don’t need to knock him to talk about how good Tatums been but I stil stand by my statement. I would trade brown for an established all star to get the team to the next level as long as the player coming in didn’t stunt or not mesh with Tatum.

Celtics moving forward- everythjgn is about fit with Tatum and maximizing his potential. You don’t just trade brown to trade him but he’s not untouchable.

Stop. Everybody knew Tatum would be great at some point.

Funny, you told me he and brown were both untouchable and if brown could be traded - Tatum could. I said no then. I said Tatum you only trade for a top 5,6,7 guy maybe. You trade brown if it makes sense. Tatum is untouchable as he was months ago when ya were wrong then