Marcus Smart

[jmr07019]

Last season Smart shot (4) 3's per game and this season he is putting up (4.9) 3's per game. He shot 25% last year and is shooting 29% this year. If he took (1) less 3 per game he would be have shot 34% last year and would be shooting 37% this year.

Wait, wut? Taking one less wouldn't change his shooting percentage, unless you could guarantee it was a miss that he isn't taking which is obviously impossible.

The only time I cringe when Marcus takes 3's is when he looks like he is playing frustrated and trying to bludgeon his way out of a shooting slump, like last night. His intensity is a double edged sword but I think he'll learn to channel it better, you can tell by how hard he plays that his heart is in the right place.

I did not make it clear but yes I think Marcus's shot selection is so atrocious that you can easily find 1 3PA / game that has no chance of going in. Cut those out and his % will go up. Kid takes way too many off balance, heavily conested 3's.

[Bad-Thoma]

Last season Smart shot (4) 3's per game and this season he is putting up (4.9) 3's per game. He shot 25% last year and is shooting 29% this year. If he took (1) less 3 per game he would be have shot 34% last year and would be shooting 37% this year.

Wait, wut? Taking one less wouldn't change his shooting percentage, unless you could guarantee it was a miss that he isn't taking which is obviously impossible.

The only time I cringe when Marcus takes 3's is when he looks like he is playing frustrated and trying to bludgeon his way out of a shooting slump, like last night. His intensity is a double edged sword but I think he'll learn to channel it better, you can tell by how hard he plays that his heart is in the right place.

I did not make it clear but yes I think Marcus's shot selection is so atrocious that you can easily find 1 3PA / game that has no chance of going in. Cut those out and his % will go up. Kid takes way too many off balance, heavily conested 3's.

I think his shot selection could stand to improve but "atrocious" is a little hyperbolic. His % would also go up if he didn't take so many shot clock/quarter ending shots, but you have to like him for being willing to try in those situations. To my eye he's been taking predominately open 3's other than those situations (with exceptions), he's just not making them at the rate we'd all like. I'd rather see him taking it inside more often and either attacking the basket or kicking it out but that could go for anyone on the C's not named Horford or Thomas. Pretty much everyone is caving on any Celtic penetration (see Isaiah as he is almost 100% of our penetration) and taking chances with the outside shot or trying to get back out and run them off the line so unfortunately we'll probably still be watching Golden State shot selection as a team without Golden State's shooter.


http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/203935/shots-dash/?p=marcus-smart&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

According to this he's taken .9 3pts with a defender from 0-4 ft, .7 of which are with a defender from 2-4 ft away, and the other 4 a game are are with defenders 4 or more feet away. Considering he takes an average of 1.1 a game with less than 7 seconds in the shot clock that probably accounts for at least a good part of the contested 3's. The percentage he hits contested is between 20 and 22%, the open shots he is hitting at 33%. So the truth lies somewhere in between our perspectives, he would have a slightly higher percentage if he passed up those contested 3's (though as I stated some of those are late in the shot clock) but his shot selection from 3 isn't really all that bad. Either way, I think he and our overall offense would be better served if he attempted to drive more often but how much of that is personal prerogative or design is another question.

[jrob23]

If Smart would ONLY take wide open threes and predominantly post guys up on mismatches, or drove to the basket with the intent to facilitate, he'd really improve not only his game but our team. That still isn't what we were hoping he'd be but it would quiet the critics. He could win 6th man awards playing like that. And if he was at least that kind of player, there's still a small chance his shot improves which would make him starter material. Time is running out. He needs to do it now before the trade deadline and for sure before the draft.

[Kolkmania]

Wait, wut? Taking one less wouldn't change his shooting percentage, unless you could guarantee it was a miss that he isn't taking which is obviously impossible.

The only time I cringe when Marcus takes 3's is when he looks like he is playing frustrated and trying to bludgeon his way out of a shooting slump, like last night. His intensity is a double edged sword but I think he'll learn to channel it better, you can tell by how hard he plays that his heart is in the right place.

I did not make it clear but yes I think Marcus's shot selection is so atrocious that you can easily find 1 3PA / game that has no chance of going in. Cut those out and his % will go up. Kid takes way too many off balance, heavily conested 3's.

I think his shot selection could stand to improve but "atrocious" is a little hyperbolic. His % would also go up if he didn't take so many shot clock/quarter ending shots, but you have to like him for being willing to try in those situations. To my eye he's been taking predominately open 3's other than those situations (with exceptions), he's just not making them at the rate we'd all like. I'd rather see him taking it inside more often and either attacking the basket or kicking it out but that could go for anyone on the C's not named Horford or Thomas. Pretty much everyone is caving on any Celtic penetration (see Isaiah as he is almost 100% of our penetration) and taking chances with the outside shot or trying to get back out and run them off the line so unfortunately we'll probably still be watching Golden State shot selection as a team without Golden State's shooter.


http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/203935/shots-dash/?p=marcus-smart&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

According to this he's taken .9 3pts with a defender from 0-4 ft, .7 of which are with a defender from 2-4 ft away, and the other 4 a game are are with defenders 4 or more feet away. Considering he takes an average of 1.1 a game with less than 7 seconds in the shot clock that probably accounts for at least a good part of the contested 3's. The percentage he hits contested is between 20 and 22%, the open shots he is hitting at 33%. So the truth lies somewhere in between our perspectives, he would have a slightly higher percentage if he passed up those contested 3's (though as I stated some of those are late in the shot clock) but his shot selection from 3 isn't really all that bad. Either way, I think he and our overall offense would be better served if he attempted to drive more often but how much of that is personal prerogative or design is another question.

Frequency of three pointers of total attempts:

Marcus Smart 49.1%
Klay Thompson 46.6%
James Harden 44.2%
Isaiah Thomas 35.0%
Kevin Durant 28.9%

While shooting 33.3% wide open (closest defend +6 ft) and 27.8% open (4-6 ft). That's ridiculous and someone in this organization should stop this madness.

[Fidel Sarcasmo]

Marcus Smart... (Sigh) It's getting to be like ring toss at the carnival territory here with his shooting percentage. My issue is, he's got precedent for this percentage already and I can't delude myself into thinking this is a slump. This is Marcus. 27% 3pt percentage or something like that with 35% FG%. I'm really trying to hold onto hope here. I love him. But Jeeeeesus...

[Dannyboy36]

I can't imagine many established coaches letting this go on so long with Marcus. Sitting him in the corner if anything promoted this bad habit.
I'm at my wits end with this kind of stuff. I think Marcus is a good teammate. If he was told to knock it off I think he'd do it.
Sadly this is what Stevens WANTS. This reminds me very much of Jimmy O'bridn who only knew how to coach one style of play instead of being able to adjust to our roster.
If we've never been better than 3rd worst at 3's under stevens( I THINK this is true) why does all this chucking continue?

[Bad-Thoma]

Frequency of three pointers of total attempts:

Marcus Smart 49.1%
Klay Thompson 46.6%
James Harden 44.2%
Isaiah Thomas 35.0%
Kevin Durant 28.9%

While shooting 33.3% wide open (closest defend +6 ft) and 27.8% open (4-6 ft). That's ridiculous and someone in this organization should stop this madness.

Right, but all those guys are high end scorers who score in a variety of ways, the comparison is silly. Marcus role in the offense has basically been a growing role of distributor or move the ball around the perimeter, open guy shoots the ball. I'd like to see him do more working out of the post myself, but somehow I don't think it's his prerogative.

[Kolkmania]

Frequency of three pointers of total attempts:

Marcus Smart 49.1%
Klay Thompson 46.6%
James Harden 44.2%
Isaiah Thomas 35.0%
Kevin Durant 28.9%

While shooting 33.3% wide open (closest defend +6 ft) and 27.8% open (4-6 ft). That's ridiculous and someone in this organization should stop this madness.

Right, but all those guys are high end scorers who score in a variety of ways, the comparison is silly. Marcus role in the offense has basically been a growing role of distributor or move the ball around the perimeter, open guy shoots the ball. I'd like to see him do more working out of the post myself, but somehow I don't think it's his prerogative.

It's not like it's 49.1% of very few shot attempts, he averages around 12 FGA per game. If his role is being a distributor or move the ball around the perimeter why does he take nearly 6 three pointers per game? I don't get your point, all these guys are far more capable three point shooters and shoot percentage wise fewer three point shots. Marcus Smart can't hit a three pointer and yet he's chucking them with more than 25% are within 10 seconds.

His shot selection is just horrible and hurting the team, his TS% for the season is 43.9%. I love Marcus Smart's defense, hustle and all the little things he brings to this team, but the enormous amount of 3PA per game should be reduced to ~1/2.

[ballup]

I think it was mentioned before, but Smart apparently was measured to having one of the highest body fat percentage at 10% coming into the draft. Should he be cutting?

Now, he does need his weight to stop bigger players. Being lighter would help him get a little bit more of an edge on drives. Marcus would still be strong enough to muscle out most guards and he would be adding dribble penetration to his arsenal. Playmaking in the second unit is desperately needed. I would be willing for him to lose the ability to guard 4s and some 3s for him to be physically able to consistently attack the basket.

Sent from my

[Bad-Thoma]

Frequency of three pointers of total attempts:

Marcus Smart 49.1%
Klay Thompson 46.6%
James Harden 44.2%
Isaiah Thomas 35.0%
Kevin Durant 28.9%

While shooting 33.3% wide open (closest defend +6 ft) and 27.8% open (4-6 ft). That's ridiculous and someone in this organization should stop this madness.

Right, but all those guys are high end scorers who score in a variety of ways, the comparison is silly. Marcus role in the offense has basically been a growing role of distributor or move the ball around the perimeter, open guy shoots the ball. I'd like to see him do more working out of the post myself, but somehow I don't think it's his prerogative.

It's not like it's 49.1% of very few shot attempts, he averages around 12 FGA per game. If his role is being a distributor or move the ball around the perimeter why does he take nearly 6 three pointers per game? I don't get your point, all these guys are far more capable three point shooters and shoot percentage wise fewer three point shots. Marcus Smart can't hit a three pointer and yet he's chucking them with more than 25% are within 10 seconds.

His shot selection is just horrible and hurting the team, his TS% for the season is 43.9%. I love Marcus Smart's defense, hustle and all the little things he brings to this team, but the enormous amount of 3PA per game should be reduced to ~1/2.

He averages 10 shots a game, not 12, therefore the 4.9 attempted 3's. I agree that him shifting some of his shots closer to the basket would be better for the offense, but he actually ranks 217th in the league on a fga/minute basis so all I'm really saying is the hyperbole about him being a chucker, about "stop the madness", "ridiculous", etc. is unfounded. His shot selection within the offense needs to get better, but he's taking the shots that are open at a reasonable pace, they just aren't falling the way anyone would like. It doesn't bother me because for him to improve he not only needs to take shots in practice but in game situations, it's either going to be a developing part of his game or it isn't but if he scares off from taking them it won't happen, and if there is one thing Marcus doesn't do is scare off. Hopefully by the time we are in a position for a deep playoff run the discomfort of watching him take low percentage shots from perimeter will all be worth it and he'll be hitting at a respectable rate.

The most important thing though is 217th in the league for field goal attempts per minute is hardly chucker status, people need to relax. To throw more numbers out there, he is 116th in the league for 3pt attempts per 36 minutes.

[Kolkmania]

Right, but all those guys are high end scorers who score in a variety of ways, the comparison is silly. Marcus role in the offense has basically been a growing role of distributor or move the ball around the perimeter, open guy shoots the ball. I'd like to see him do more working out of the post myself, but somehow I don't think it's his prerogative.

It's not like it's 49.1% of very few shot attempts, he averages around 12 FGA per game. If his role is being a distributor or move the ball around the perimeter why does he take nearly 6 three pointers per game? I don't get your point, all these guys are far more capable three point shooters and shoot percentage wise fewer three point shots. Marcus Smart can't hit a three pointer and yet he's chucking them with more than 25% are within 10 seconds.

His shot selection is just horrible and hurting the team, his TS% for the season is 43.9%. I love Marcus Smart's defense, hustle and all the little things he brings to this team, but the enormous amount of 3PA per game should be reduced to ~1/2.

He averages 10 shots a game, not 12, therefore the 4.9 attempted 3's. I agree that him shifting some of his shots closer to the basket would be better for the offense, but he actually ranks 217th in the league on a fga/minute basis so all I'm really saying is the hyperbole about him being a chucker, about "stop the madness", "ridiculous", etc. is unfounded. His shot selection within the offense needs to get better, but he's taking the shots that are open at a reasonable pace, they just aren't falling the way anyone would like. It doesn't bother me because for him to improve he not only needs to take shots in practice but in game situations, it's either going to be a developing part of his game or it isn't but if he scares off from taking them it won't happen, and if there is one thing Marcus doesn't do is scare off. Hopefully by the time we are in a position for a deep playoff run the discomfort of watching him take low percentage shots from perimeter will all be worth it and he'll be hitting at a respectable rate.

The most important thing though is 217th in the league for field goal attempts per minute is hardly chucker status, people need to relax.

You're right, I looked at his per 36 numbers. Sure if you think he has the potential to become a decent shooter and this is part of his development he should continue. Perhaps he's 217th in the league for field goal attempts, but he's in the top 50(!) in the league with 3PA per game. For players with at least 2 3PA per game he's 184 out of the 203 results in terms of percentage. Personally I do think it's ridiculous, especially since he's been doing it for 2 years now without any signs of improvement.

[Bad-Thoma]

You're right, I looked at his per 36 numbers. Sure if you think he has the potential to become a decent shooter and this is part of his development he should continue. Perhaps he's 217th in the league for field goal attempts, but he's in the top 50(!) in the league with 3PA per game. For players with at least 2 3PA per game he's 184 out of the 203 results in terms of percentage. Personally I do think it's ridiculous, especially since he's been doing it for 2 years now without any signs of improvement

He's also 22 years old, so I'm not all that worried about signs of improvement yet. With Marcus you've already got a guy that brings a lot to the table defensively, and as much as I hate the term "intangibly". He's shown improvement as a distributor. At 22, if you want him to be able to bring those tools to the table on a large minute load when we are actually in the conversation for a banner then you need to develop his offensive game to a respectable level as well. Not a star level, but enough that he is a net positive on that end of the floor, and he's not that far from at least being a wash offensively with his improved passing and solid screens, etc.

Really what this does is follow the typical pattern for Boston rookies perception on the board, before they get minutes people are clamoring for them to be on the floor and claiming they are the next big thing and making outlandish comparisons, i.e. Jalen and Mickey of recent memory, and even James Young as a rookie to a degree, but the guys that come in and can play right away like the Tony Allens, Avery Bradleys, and Marcus get thrown under the bus, and the reason they tend to get on the floor early is because they can play D at a serviceable level right off the bat. I don't mean you in particular Kolkmania, just in general. Marcus could very well end up on a similar trajectory as an Avery Bradley, but it hasn't been a short process and it wasn't always pretty. To make a long story short I think Brad is developing the youth on this team the right way while remaining pretty damned competitive, people need to be patient and think long term while enjoying the fact that we don't suck.

[Dannyboy36]

I have to maybe stop blaming smart. It's obvious these are the shots Stevens wants him taking. If he had a problem with it smart would correct it or he wouldn't play.
I think it's hurt his career a bit already and will continue to but if that's the directive I guess it's not his fault.

[Kolkmania]

You're right, I looked at his per 36 numbers. Sure if you think he has the potential to become a decent shooter and this is part of his development he should continue. Perhaps he's 217th in the league for field goal attempts, but he's in the top 50(!) in the league with 3PA per game. For players with at least 2 3PA per game he's 184 out of the 203 results in terms of percentage. Personally I do think it's ridiculous, especially since he's been doing it for 2 years now without any signs of improvement

He's also 22 years old, so I'm not all that worried about signs of improvement yet. With Marcus you've already got a guy that brings a lot to the table defensively, and as much as I hate the term "intangibly". He's shown improvement as a distributor. At 22, if you want him to be able to bring those tools to the table on a large minute load when we are actually in the conversation for a banner then you need to develop his offensive game to a respectable level as well. Not a star level, but enough that he is a net positive on that end of the floor, and he's not that far from at least being a wash offensively with his improved passing and solid screens, etc.

Really what this does is follow the typical pattern for Boston rookies perception on the board, before they get minutes people are clamoring for them to be on the floor and claiming they are the next big thing and making outlandish comparisons, i.e. Jalen and Mickey of recent memory, and even James Young as a rookie to a degree, but the guys that come in and can play right away like the Tony Allens, Avery Bradleys, and Marcus get thrown under the bus, and the reason they tend to get on the floor early is because they can play D at a serviceable level right off the bat. I don't mean you in particular Kolkmania, just in general. Marcus could very well end up on a similar trajectory as an Avery Bradley, but it hasn't been a short process and it wasn't always pretty. To make a long story short I think Brad is developing the youth on this team the right way while remaining pretty damned competitive, people need to be patient and think long term while enjoying the fact that we don't suck.

Well shooting 29.4% on nearly 600 attempts without any significant improvement is somewhat alarming to me. He had some issues with his finger which could explain his decrease in percentage from his rookie season, but he's not doing any better this year.

Not sure how the rest of your post is related to my response. I'm a big fan of Marcus Smart and his demeanor, I hope he stays on this team a long time. Just saying that someone has to stop Smart from shooting 5 three pointers per game. Avery Bradley was hard to watch offensively during his first years, but he was always a decent three point shooter and even then shot it at a much lower rate than Smart does.

[Bad-Thoma]

You're right, I looked at his per 36 numbers. Sure if you think he has the potential to become a decent shooter and this is part of his development he should continue. Perhaps he's 217th in the league for field goal attempts, but he's in the top 50(!) in the league with 3PA per game. For players with at least 2 3PA per game he's 184 out of the 203 results in terms of percentage. Personally I do think it's ridiculous, especially since he's been doing it for 2 years now without any signs of improvement

He's also 22 years old, so I'm not all that worried about signs of improvement yet. With Marcus you've already got a guy that brings a lot to the table defensively, and as much as I hate the term "intangibly". He's shown improvement as a distributor. At 22, if you want him to be able to bring those tools to the table on a large minute load when we are actually in the conversation for a banner then you need to develop his offensive game to a respectable level as well. Not a star level, but enough that he is a net positive on that end of the floor, and he's not that far from at least being a wash offensively with his improved passing and solid screens, etc.

Really what this does is follow the typical pattern for Boston rookies perception on the board, before they get minutes people are clamoring for them to be on the floor and claiming they are the next big thing and making outlandish comparisons, i.e. Jalen and Mickey of recent memory, and even James Young as a rookie to a degree, but the guys that come in and can play right away like the Tony Allens, Avery Bradleys, and Marcus get thrown under the bus, and the reason they tend to get on the floor early is because they can play D at a serviceable level right off the bat. I don't mean you in particular Kolkmania, just in general. Marcus could very well end up on a similar trajectory as an Avery Bradley, but it hasn't been a short process and it wasn't always pretty. To make a long story short I think Brad is developing the youth on this team the right way while remaining pretty damned competitive, people need to be patient and think long term while enjoying the fact that we don't suck.

Well shooting 29.4% on nearly 600 attempts without any significant improvement is somewhat alarming to me. He had some issues with his finger which could explain his decrease in percentage from his rookie season, but he's not doing any better this year.

Not sure how the rest of your post is related to my response. I'm a big fan of Marcus Smart and his demeanor, I hope he stays on this team a long time. Just saying that someone has to stop Smart from shooting 5 three pointers per game. Avery Bradley was hard to watch offensively during his first years, but he was always a decent three point shooter and even then shot it at a much lower rate than Smart does.

That's why I said in the the second part that I didn't mean you in particular, basically just a long winded way of saying people should have some patience. Overall I agree that he should stop shooting 5 a game, it just doesn't alarm me and I was trying to give context as to why.

[jmr07019]

He averages 10 shots a game, not 12, therefore the 4.9 attempted 3's. I agree that him shifting some of his shots closer to the basket would be better for the offense, but he actually ranks 217th in the league on a fga/minute basis so all I'm really saying is the hyperbole about him being a chucker, about "stop the madness", "ridiculous", etc. is unfounded. His shot selection within the offense needs to get better, but he's taking the shots that are open at a reasonable pace, they just aren't falling the way anyone would like. It doesn't bother me because for him to improve he not only needs to take shots in practice but in game situations, it's either going to be a developing part of his game or it isn't but if he scares off from taking them it won't happen, and if there is one thing Marcus doesn't do is scare off. Hopefully by the time we are in a position for a deep playoff run the discomfort of watching him take low percentage shots from perimeter will all be worth it and he'll be hitting at a respectable rate.

The most important thing though is 217th in the league for field goal attempts per minute is hardly chucker status, people need to relax. To throw more numbers out there, he is 116th in the league for 3pt attempts per 36 minutes.

Thanks for the data. You make good points about needing game reps to improve but on the other hand at some point you gotta show some results. Smart got worse from year 1 to year 2 and hasn't shown any improvement from year 2 to 3 in the 3 ball department. I would have him not take any 3's unless they were wide open (no defender within 6') or the shot clock was below a certain point.

[Dannyboy36]

It's funny that regarding smart some think he needs GAME reps but it's not the same for Jaylen Brown for some of the same people. Instead they support Stevens benching of him. That doesn't jive to me.

[Valid]

So, where is the "Marcus Smart has no value" crew after last night? In hiding?

[return2glory]

I loved the two floaters he made in the lane vs the Magic. He had nice touch on those shots. When he uses and makes those shots more, his offensive game would start to blossom.

[Bad-Thoma]

It's funny that regarding smart some think he needs GAME reps but it's not the same for Jaylen Brown for some of the same people. Instead they support Stevens benching of him. That doesn't jive to me.

Smart is a 3rd year guy who knows the offense and the defense, and most importantly can get it done on the defensive end of the floor. Jaylen, as much as I love him, is a rookie who has been getting some minutes but still looks lost on defensive rotations at times. I imagine his role will grow as the season progresses as his ability to take it to the rack fills a need in our offense and his one on one d has been alright, but it takes patience. Most of the other rookies that people were high on aren't playing big minutes other than Ingram out of necessity in LA but even playing big minutes he isn't producing all that much. For the 1st quarter of his rookie year for a guy Jalen's age the process is going just fine and he looks damned good, he just needs to know where to be and when before he starts racking up the minutes.