sam_I_am wrote:
My real point - and again I am sorry it was perceived as unfriendly - is that 1 flu death does not equal 1 Covid death because with each Covid death there are an additional 20 people who suffer greatly and are at risk for death. (Assumes 1% mortality, 5% vent/ICU, 20% hospitalization as seen in NYC, Italy, China etc.). This just doesn’t happen with flu.
While I think your sentiment is generally accurate, a quick Google search led me here:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018/archive.htmCDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 48.8 million illnesses, more than 22.7 million medical visits, 959,000 hospitalizations, and 79,400 deaths during the 2017–2018 influenza season.
According to this, the CDC estimates that the flu was associated with 12 hospitalizations for every death it was associated with.
However, it was associated with 48.8 million illnesses, and if we can use that number to determine the mortality rate, it comes out to 0.16%. And this is, generally, the real issue here...
It is tough to determine the true mortality rate of COVID-19, in part because we don't know enough to accurately estimate the true number of people infected, because there may be different strains, etc. But indications suggest that the mortality rate is probably
at least 0.5%, which would mean that if there were 48.8 million cases during the flu season, we would see at least 240,000 deaths during the flu season. And if there were even just 10 times as many people requiring hospitalization, that would mean 2.4 million hospitalizations, unevenly distributed, and in addition to existing hospitalizations. According to aha.org, there are a total of just 924k staffed beds in all U.S. hospitals.
Of course the other issues are that while COVID seems to spread like the flu, hardly anybody is immune to it, there is no vaccine, it probably isn't just seasonal, there is no accepted/proven standard for treatment and care, etc. So you could be looking a many more cases in addition to added complications.
While I am no expert, I presume that early models took similar, or related logic into account.
Once people go back to work it is very likely there could be a second peak. Sometimes, too much flattening like in China means that too much of the population is not immune and vulnerable to a second wave. It will be informative to see what happens in China, S. Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan over the summer.
Hopefully the FDA is able to minimize red tape, and we see medical progress sooner than later. I have read that herd immunity would require at least 55% of the population to become immune. If true, that doesn't feel like a goal we should strive for (save for a vaccine or the equivalent).
