NBA Eastern Conf. Finals: Gm 1 – Celtics vs Heat – 6:30PM, Tues. 09/15/20

[Big Joke Line]

A healthy hayward yeah. A hayward coming off an injury at maybe 60-70%? If he never got hurt obviously you put him in the starting lineup over smart. It's not that black and white though. We saw what happened the last time they tried to force hayward back into the starting lineup after an injury. The celtics are playing very well right now. Putting a less than 100% hayward in the starting lineup over smart I don't think is the right move.... But hey, maybe I'm wrong. Just giving my opinion. I think it depends on how healthy hayward is and how rusty he is.

I don’t really have an opinion on starting but keep in mind the lineup he came back to last year included Kyrie, Mook and Terry. And Kyrie.

Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Gordo: 116.6 ORtg (92nd percentile), 104.7 DRtg (93rd percentile), +11.9 NRtg (97th percentile)
Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Smart: 105.0 ORtg (13th percentile), 100.0 DRtg (99th percentile), +5.0 NRtg (80th percentile)

That's too much of a dropoff in offense to justify the improvement in defense.

And to hugepatsfan's point, we don't use hockey 5-for-5 substitutions. Brad usually pulls out Hayward or Tatum early to bring them back before the 1Q/3Q ends so they can lead the "second unit." So not only do you maximize your starting group this way by getting them more minutes together, you also have someone to make your bench group's offense functional/more potent.

It's the same counter-argument to fans who have suggested that Kemba should come off the bench in favor of Smart.

EDIT: Smaller sample but the current starting lineup w/ Smart is scoring about the same (105.1 pts per 100 possessions) in the playoffs.

The stats take into account for that variance and aren't speaking on that.

Interesting but how does it relate to forcing Gordon back into the lineup last year vs this year which was the comment?

[ConstableGeneva]

Preview/predictions from Greg Anthony, Dennis Scott, and Kevin McHale:

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[carnageta]

You really gotta watch a few games outside of your own team once in a while.

Says the guy that compared Theis to Birdman.

Daniel Theis - 6'9", 245lbs

Chris Andersen - 6'10", 245lbs


Both underrated shot blockers. Both underrated mid-range shooters. Thies of course can hit the 3 as well, but you can bet Andersen would have also expanded his game out to the 3-pt line had he played in today's era.

Shot mechanics very similar. Pick n' Roll defense satisfactory for both. Both decent at rim running too.

Oh, and they're both white with tattoos.


Take a look at these pictures and tell me with a straight face that you don't see a similarity







Hell, the two can show the Morris brothers what real twins are supposed to look like.

[BostonCouchGM]

They have a better bench and more experience, coaching is about even with both being overrated yet solid, battle-tested coaches, and both teams have two all-stars with. I think Herro will eventually be better than Jaylen but that's a couple years from now and it won't be by much so we have a decided advantage from 3 through 5, but then they have the advantage for the most part after that. It's very evenly matched without Hayward. It'll probably come down to which team's best players play best or gets hot. Sounds simplistic I know.
How I rate the players from each team:

Tatum
Adebayo
Butler
Brown
Walker
Smart
Herro
Dragic
Olynyk
Crowder
Robinson
Theis
Nunn
Williams, R.
Jones Jr.
Williams, G.
Iggy
Wanamaker
Semi

I really don't want the officiating to to be one-sided like last series. Winning that way takes some of the joy out of it. Nothing would surprise me from this series from sweeps to all the way to a Game 7. Either team can win. Whoever wins won't be an easy out in the Finals either no matter the media says. I'm not at all impressed by the Lakers because of their depth and the Clippers because of their coach.

[floyd]

You really gotta watch a few games outside of your own team once in a while.

Says the guy that compared Theis to Birdman.

Daniel Theis - 6'9", 245lbs

Chris Andersen - 6'10", 245lbs


Both underrated shot blockers. Both underrated mid-range shooters. Thies of course can hit the 3 as well, but you can bet Andersen would have also expanded his game out to the 3-pt line had he played in today's era.

Shot mechanics very similar. Pick n' Roll defense satisfactory for both. Both decent at rim running too.

Oh, and they're both white with tattoos.


Take a look at these pictures and tell me with a straight face that you don't see a similarity







Hell, the two can show the Morris brothers what real twins are supposed to look like.

Don’t need pictures dude - I watched them both play unlike you. Game is not similar.

[celticfan42487]

I don’t really have an opinion on starting but keep in mind the lineup he came back to last year included Kyrie, Mook and Terry. And Kyrie.

Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Gordo: 116.6 ORtg (92nd percentile), 104.7 DRtg (93rd percentile), +11.9 NRtg (97th percentile)
Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Smart: 105.0 ORtg (13th percentile), 100.0 DRtg (99th percentile), +5.0 NRtg (80th percentile)

That's too much of a dropoff in offense to justify the improvement in defense.

And to hugepatsfan's point, we don't use hockey 5-for-5 substitutions. Brad usually pulls out Hayward or Tatum early to bring them back before the 1Q/3Q ends so they can lead the "second unit." So not only do you maximize your starting group this way by getting them more minutes together, you also have someone to make your bench group's offense functional/more potent.

It's the same counter-argument to fans who have suggested that Kemba should come off the bench in favor of Smart.

EDIT: Smaller sample but the current starting lineup w/ Smart is scoring about the same (105.1 pts per 100 possessions) in the playoffs.

The stats take into account for that variance and aren't speaking on that.

Interesting but how does it relate to forcing Gordon back into the lineup last year vs this year which was the comment?

So you're the only one thinking about last year here. Notice the lineups, those are this year players. Kemba alone should prove that.

I'm not sure where you got last year in any part of this but no one is talking about last year because that would be 100% meaningless to think about. That seems to be the crux of the miscommunication here.

[carnageta]

Says the guy that compared Theis to Birdman.

Daniel Theis - 6'9", 245lbs

Chris Andersen - 6'10", 245lbs


Both underrated shot blockers. Both underrated mid-range shooters. Thies of course can hit the 3 as well, but you can bet Andersen would have also expanded his game out to the 3-pt line had he played in today's era.

Shot mechanics very similar. Pick n' Roll defense satisfactory for both. Both decent at rim running too.

Oh, and they're both white with tattoos.


Take a look at these pictures and tell me with a straight face that you don't see a similarity







Hell, the two can show the Morris brothers what real twins are supposed to look like.

Don’t need pictures dude - I watched them both play unlike you. Game is not similar.

Analysts and commentators highlighting the same similarities, but I digress. Celtic fans know Celtic players best.



Bam still gonna eat that boy so be prepared.

[The Corey's]

WHERE THE **** IS AFAM. GET IN HERE AND ENJOY THIS.

[AFVolunteer]

Rob and Grant have been playing Bam since college. They won't be intimidated. The is is just a foul machine

Grant goes back even further, he's been playing Bam since high school. Grant's team beat Bam's to win the high school state championship.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/high-school/article61588947.html

Chargers senior forward Grant Williams combined 15 points and eight rebounds with strong defensive play on Edrice “Bam” Adebayo. Kentucky-bound Adebayo, a 6-foot-9, 230-pounder, is the more highly touted player, but Tennessee-bound Williams (6-6, 230) took him out of the game during the first half. Adebayo picked up his third foul with 4 minutes, 50 seconds remaining in the second quarter and High Point Christian trailing 22-6. Adebayo was scoreless in the half with three rebounds, although he finished the night with 11 points and 11 rebounds.

“Grant did a great job on him,” Wertz said. “He feels like he’s been an underrated player. He showed tonight he can play with the best of them.”

[themoneyteam2]

Sounds like Hayward is still a few games away from returning - has only done individual work according to Brad.

Would be nice to get him back for game 3 which is next Saturday. No idea how healthy he’ll be but if he can just give 20 mins off the bench that’s huge

[ConstableGeneva]

Theis is shooting 18.2% (4/22) from 3 so far in the playoffs. So I'm expecting him to hit ALL his threes in this series. About 20 of them.

We'll also see this cute little guy make a comeback...

Spoiler:

Can't stress this enough... we have to defend without fouling. Our starting wings can't get into foul trouble since we have no one behind them. Watch out for Jimmy and Goran who fish for fouls as good as anyone. Bam gets to the line quite a bit too.

[zoyathedestroya]

Not to get ahead of ourselves, but I'm just amazed of how young this group is. I can't even think of a team this young and inexperienced that made the NBA Finals (I think we have a good shot against Miami).

Checked the OKC team that made the 2012 Finals and even that team had Derek Fisher (15-yr vet), Perk (8), Collison (7), and Thabo (5) on their regular playoff rotation. KD and Cook had 4 years of prior experience. Harden, Ibaka, and Westbrook were all under their rookie contracts.

In comparison, the Celtics have -- Kemba (8-yr vet), Smart (5), everyone else with 3 years or less of NBA experience. Kanter (8) appears 10th in most minutes this postseason. Hayward (9) is still recovering.

Spoiler:

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Sadly, both the 2011 Thunder and 2018 Celtics (WE WERE SEVEN MINUTES AWAY!) were eliminated in the conference finals.

[Mr_Mojo_Risin]

Not to get ahead of ourselves, but I'm just amazed of how young this group is. I can't even think of a team this young and inexperienced that made the NBA Finals (I think we have a good shot against Miami).

Checked the OKC team that made the 2012 Finals and even that team had Derek Fisher (15-yr vet), Perk (8), Collison (7), and Thabo (5) on their regular playoff rotation. KD and Cook had 4 years of prior experience. Harden, Ibaka, and Westbrook were all under their rookie contracts.

In comparison, the Celtics have -- Kemba (8-yr vet), Smart (5), everyone else with 3 years or less of NBA experience. Kanter (8) appears 10th in most minutes this postseason. Hayward (9) is still recovering.

Spoiler:

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Sadly, both the 2011 Thunder and 2018 Celtics (WE WERE SEVEN MINUTES AWAY!) were eliminated in the conference finals.

I guess we'll just have to be the youngest in history to make the NBA finals then.

[100proof]

Am I the only one that feels this should be a much easier team for the Celtics to play than the Raptors?

Butler hunts for calls alot, and gets them, but so did lowry.
Theis/Williams/Grant are perfect guys to defend Bam
Dragic will not have his way getting into the middle with Smart on him.
Kemba should be able to take full advantage of Duncan offensively and hold his own defensively.
so Herro/Crowder and Butler will have to deal with Brown and Tatum.


Then of course there will be times when Crowder has Theis defending him and Bam will have to deal with Brown guarding him.

And on Offense.
Robinson, Herro, Crowder and Butler are going to have to try and contain all of Kemba, Tatum., Brown and Smart.

Herro and Robinson are not good defenders imo and I cannot see them stopping Kemba and Smart. I am assuming Crowder and Butler will have to cover Brown and Tatum. Who again, I dont think can stop either.

[sam_I_am]

I think the Heat bench is overrated. I think the Raptors bench is much better. They have an advantage with Hayward out but if Hayward were healthy it would swing to Boston. Their bench is Herro (rookie with bright future), Olynyk and Igoudala ( shell of former self but still a veteran of playoffs.). Nunn, Jones, and Leonard are out of rotation. Nunn has been bad lately but I guess he could get hot and sway a game but his iso ball hurts their team. Our starting 5 advantage is huge in my opinion and I think Wannamaker and Williams can offset production of Olynyk and Iggy. Herro is their wildcard but at same time, I think Robinson can be exposed by our superior wings. For the Heat to win, Butler has to be MVP of series and Abadayo has to dominate. I think Bam will give us fits but I think the Celtics have what it takes to offset Butler. I think Dragic, Robinson and JCrowder are going to struggle mightily against our defense. I don’t see the Heat being able to slow down Kemba or Tatum enough and although I think Brown and Smart will expend most of energy on defense, but they will have opportunities to make shots. It will be very close without Hayward making a contribution. If he gets healthy and is decent I think we will dominate.

I think the Heat system and coaching is hugely underrated however. Brad has to bring his A+ game because Miami will not beat itself and will stay in every game. This Heat team reminds me of IT led Celtics but one difference is that their best player is playing his career best in these playoffs.

[Ben-N1ce]

Am I the only one that feels this should be a much easier team for the Celtics to play than the Raptors?

Butler hunts for calls alot, and gets them, but so did lowry.
Theis/Williams/Grant are perfect guys to defend Bam
Dragic will not have his way getting into the middle with Smart on him.
Kemba should be able to take full advantage of Duncan offensively and hold his own defensively.
so Herro/Crowder and Butler will have to deal with Brown and Tatum.


Then of course there will be times when Crowder has Theis defending him and Bam will have to deal with Brown guarding him.

And on Offense.
Robinson, Herro, Crowder and Butler are going to have to try and contain all of Kemba, Tatum., Brown and Smart.

Herro and Robinson are not good defenders imo and I cannot see them stopping Kemba and Smart. I am assuming Crowder and Butler will have to cover Brown and Tatum. Who again, I dont think can stop either.

Hard to say. If the Celtics employ a dumb Bucks defense they won't beat them. It's really how they defend the 3 and Bam. Butler I"m not overally concerned about. We have 3 wings to throw at him. As long as they don't double they should be fine. Live with his 2's.

[jirrit]

We ain't favored.


Vegas as the Celtics as the favorites to win the series.


Heat: +110

Boston: -130

but you guys destroyed the Bucks, and that we barely beat the lowly raps and Bam will totally go Shaq on us! Right?
gtfo TROLL!

lol GTFO, you leprechauns are favored to win the series. Vegas don't lie. We're the dogs, always have been.

dogs as in "we're not gonna win one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not ... ?" back in the Lebron days?

We'll see what happens in this round. We won't underestimate the Heat and I sure as hell hope the Heat won't underestimate us because it's gonna be a dogfight.

[ConstableGeneva]

ESPN "pundits" learned a little bit not to bet against the Cs. It was 13-5 favoring the Raptors prior to the 2nd round series. I think Bobby Marks had Raptors in 5 lol. 11-10 now in favor of Miami.

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[Saint Lazarus]

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[Johnny Bball]

One guy to watch is The Kelly Olynk (I loved those threads btw). One area the Raptors we able to exploit is the Pick and Pop vs Boston bigs when Ibaka was on the floor. TKO has the same shooting ability and should thrive there as it's a compromise Boston's defense gives up vs the Raptors every time.

Adebayo is going to have it tougher there and will have to finish over multiple defenders I think, but maybe his passing ability on the PNP/PNR leads to corner threes with the extra pass. Maybe.

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[/quote]

And Miami's zone defense will provide a challenge like the Raptors did, but the Raptors didn't use it enough.

This is really worth a watch for all you guys. It's long but pretty damn good.