Hal14 wrote:Celts17Pride wrote:Hal14 wrote:Well, BPM isn't the end all, be all stat, of course. No stat is. Let's look at a few key stats to get a more accurate evaluation:
As you can see, most of the stats favor OG...and OG is a year younger, too so has more room left to develop and get better.
The usage difference is massive. When you have a high usage superstar (Tatum) who is around 31% usage and another high usage star (KP) who is around 27% usage, you really don't want any other guys who are higher than 25% usage. Otherwise the ball movement will be really bad.
KP is capable of being a #2 option on a championship team. He's capable of averaging 21-24 PPG as the #2 option on this team - especially with defenses focusing so much of their attention on Tatum. KP is the much more efficient scorer than Brown. You don't need your #2 scorer to average 27 a game. 21-24 is plenty. The Nuggets #2 scorer when they just won the title averaged 20 PPG. We just lost to Miami in the ECF, their #2 scorer averaged 20 PPG. When the warriors beat us in the finals, their #2 scorer averaged 21 PPG.
When you've got a high usage scorer averaging 30 PPG (Tatum) and a high usage #2 guy who can average 21-24 PPG (KP), you want your #3 guy to be a lower usage guy who can hit open shots when defenses sag off of them to focus on the top 2 options.That's OG, who had a WAY lower usage % than Jaylen, OG had a higher TS% than JB and a WAY higher 3 pt %. And the other thing to make note, is that JB shot a way lower 3 pt %, yet he attempted more 3's per game than OG. That doesn't sound like a winning formula - taking over 7 threes a game, but shooting well below league average, 33%. OG is the more efficient player, shooting a higher 3 pt %, on lower volume.
And oh by the way, OG is a much bette defender than JB. So not only is OG the better off ball player (which is a better fit with your other 2 stars, Tatum and KP) but he's also a much better defender, which is important since neither of your other 2 stars are elite defenders. Honestly, why would we sign JB to a supermax contract, when he's an inefficient volume scorer, not a good playmaker, not an elite defender and by most stats is (at best) our 3rd best player?
Obviously, if we make this deal, it would be made with the wink wink understanding that OG would sign an extension here - like we did with Porzingis.
We would try to get OG on a similar deal to Porzingis (around $30 mil a year). We would tell OG that he's the 3rd option so shouldn't expect more $ than Porzingis, but we'll offer him about the same amount because he is a year younger, has less injury history and is an elite defender.
I'd MUCH rather pay OG $30 mil a year than JB $60 mil a year. No question in my mind, whatsoever.
IMO, OG and JB are very comparable players. OG is the better fit with this Celtics team and has a MUCH better contract situation. So imo, there is no gap to be closed. Getting Boucher in this deal as well is like the cherry on top.
Boucher is a solid 4th big (who can easily slide in as the 3rd big when the inevitable injuries happen or when our other bigs are taking the night off to rest).
Even if you think Boucher is more of a 3/4, that doesn't really change much - he's still a solid rotation player off the bench. And IMO he is more of a PF / small ball 5, considering he's got a 7'4" wingspan, averages over 15% rebounding rate and over 4% blocks rate. Those are big man numbers.
Just stop, your wrong.
There's no right or wrong. It's my opinion. Am I not entitled to express my opinion?
Do you have anything of substance to back up your opinion?
Ill sub in. Since you were quoting EPM. lets look at those ratings. More specifically at offensive EPM. OG has a career high of 0.6 o-epm and last year he was a 0. OG's value entirely comes on the defensive end. He's closer to grant williams in offense than jaylen. Not quite as low usage and limited but not too far off. If you wanna talk TS, they had equal ts combined over the last 3 season with last year being equal and the previous 2 one being in favor of jaylen and the other OG. That is despite the fact that OG tops out at 20% usage and Jaylen does 30%. A huge difference, i'd bet you my left arm OG's ts would drop off dramatically if he were forced to absorb more usage. Something we can see if we look at lineups where FVV doesnt play and OG has a bigger role, the raptors offense falls of a cliff. Same with Siakam off, FVV and OG on btw.
Saying you prefer og on 30 mil vs jaylen on 60 mil is fine, its whatever. But they are not close to a similarly talented player offensively at all. OG cannot be a third option for a good offensive team
