What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

[Slax]

Maybe you're not the only one imbibing lol.

What is Tracy McGrady doing in the HoF? The ultimate volume shooter with a career TS% of .518 and 29.3% career usage. Never made it out of the second round of the playoffs.

He is a 7 time All-NBA player........... pretty much case closed at that point. You can go back and re-litigate his career, but that pretty much shuts everything down. I'm sure we would go back and have him take different shots during this era, but people didn't look at the game the same way back then.

He was an unbelievable player who had his career ended early by injury. He was an unbelievable player though that rivaled anybody in talent and ability.

Yeah if you compare him against contemporary volume scoring perimeter players during his peak in the early 2000's like Kobe, Iverson, Carter, Pierce, etc, he was about as efficient as the best of them while leading the league in scoring. He happened to have an injury-hampered career that resulted in the tail end of his career bringing down his efficiency at the same time a changing style of play and new rules emphasis allowed players like Pierce and Carter who were healthy into their mid 30's to become more efficient and thus have much better career efficiency stats. But in his peak when he was still healthy, T-Mac was an MVP-level talent.

[azee2890]

I can see Tatum and Brown being as good if not better than what we are seeing with Kawhi and George. Tatum probably will never be the defensive player Kawhi is, but I think he will be better offensively. Brown being a more durable version of Paul George.

Imagine how good the Clips would be right now if they were running Kemba and Hayward with Leonard and George. Sheesh.

[azee2890]

Maybe you're not the only one imbibing lol.

What is Tracy McGrady doing in the HoF? The ultimate volume shooter with a career TS% of .518 and 29.3% career usage. Never made it out of the second round of the playoffs.

He is a 7 time All-NBA player........... pretty much case closed at that point. You can go back and re-litigate his career, but that pretty much shuts everything down. I'm sure we would go back and have him take different shots during this era, but people didn't look at the game the same way back then.

He was an unbelievable player who had his career ended early by injury. He was an unbelievable player though that rivaled anybody in talent and ability.

Almost everyone during that era were inefficient scorers. Kobe, Iverson, Vince Carter, Paul Pierce, all shot sub .450 fg or worse with high usage. Lots of long 2's were taken back then.

[Strepbacter]

What is Tracy McGrady doing in the HoF? The ultimate volume shooter with a career TS% of .518 and 29.3% career usage. Never made it out of the second round of the playoffs.

He is a 7 time All-NBA player........... pretty much case closed at that point. You can go back and re-litigate his career, but that pretty much shuts everything down. I'm sure we would go back and have him take different shots during this era, but people didn't look at the game the same way back then.

He was an unbelievable player who had his career ended early by injury. He was an unbelievable player though that rivaled anybody in talent and ability.

Almost everyone during that era were inefficient scorers. Kobe, Iverson, Vince Carter, Paul Pierce, all shot sub .450 fg or worse with high usage. Lots of long 2's were taken back then.

FG% is useless as a measure of scoring efficiency. Kobe and especially Pierce posted TS% numbers that were comfortably above league-average. They simply played in a much tougher defensive environment.

They were certainly far more efficient scorers than somebody like Iverson.

Take a look at their pre hand-checking seasons using relative TS%.

Kobe
99:+3.8
00:+2.3
01:+3.5
02:+2.4
03:+3.1
04:+3.5

Pierce
99: +2.9
00: +2.7
01: +4.5
02: +5.0
03: +1.3
04: +0.1

Iverson
99: -0.3
00: -2.7
01: +0.0
02: -3.1
03: -1.9
04: -3.8

Pierce especially doesn't get enough credit for how efficient a scorer he was. He had some some seasons (01, 02) that were flat-out elite.

[azee2890]

He is a 7 time All-NBA player........... pretty much case closed at that point. You can go back and re-litigate his career, but that pretty much shuts everything down. I'm sure we would go back and have him take different shots during this era, but people didn't look at the game the same way back then.

He was an unbelievable player who had his career ended early by injury. He was an unbelievable player though that rivaled anybody in talent and ability.

Almost everyone during that era were inefficient scorers. Kobe, Iverson, Vince Carter, Paul Pierce, all shot sub .450 fg or worse with high usage. Lots of long 2's were taken back then.

FG% is useless as a measure of scoring efficiency. Kobe and especially Pierce posted TS% numbers that were comfortably above league-average. They simply played in a much tougher defensive environment.

They were certainly far more efficient scorers than somebody like Iverson.

Take a look at their pre hand-checking seasons using relative TS%.

Kobe
99:+3.8
00:+2.3
01:+3.5
02:+2.4
03:+3.1
04:+3.5

Pierce
99: +2.9
00: +2.7
01: +4.5
02: +5.0
03: +1.3
04: +0.1

Iverson
99: -0.3
00: -2.7
01: +0.0
02: -3.1
03: -1.9
04: -3.8

Pierce especially doesn't get enough credit for how efficient a scorer he was. He had some some seasons (01, 02) that were flat-out elite.

Fair enough but TS% is also biased towards 3 point shooters and FT shooting, both of which McGrady and Iverson were not great at.

I think the discrepancy between more efficient TS% during this era than the Kobe era is that no one besides Russ is taking volume long range two pointers anymore, which was primarily what players like McGrady, Iverson, and Kobe took during their careers. Pierce was a bit better of a 3 point shooter than the latter two.

I'd be willing to bet that if McGrady and Iverson started their careers in this era, they would have adapted and been just as efficient as the top players in the league.

[Slax]

He is a 7 time All-NBA player........... pretty much case closed at that point. You can go back and re-litigate his career, but that pretty much shuts everything down. I'm sure we would go back and have him take different shots during this era, but people didn't look at the game the same way back then.

He was an unbelievable player who had his career ended early by injury. He was an unbelievable player though that rivaled anybody in talent and ability.

Almost everyone during that era were inefficient scorers. Kobe, Iverson, Vince Carter, Paul Pierce, all shot sub .450 fg or worse with high usage. Lots of long 2's were taken back then.

FG% is useless as a measure of scoring efficiency. Kobe and especially Pierce posted TS% numbers that were comfortably above league-average. They simply played in a much tougher defensive environment.

They were certainly far more efficient scorers than somebody like Iverson.

Take a look at their pre hand-checking seasons using relative TS%.

Kobe
99:+3.8
00:+2.3
01:+3.5
02:+2.4
03:+3.1
04:+3.5

Pierce
99: +2.9
00: +2.7
01: +4.5
02: +5.0
03: +1.3
04: +0.1

Iverson
99: -0.3
00: -2.7
01: +0.0
02: -3.1
03: -1.9
04: -3.8

Pierce especially doesn't get enough credit for how efficient a scorer he was. He had some some seasons (01, 02) that were flat-out elite.

Sure but the original question wasn't about Iverson, it was "why is T-Mac in the hall of fame when he was just an inefficient chucker?" And unlike Iverson but like Pierce, Kobe, and Vince, depending on the year, healthy peak T-Mac had above average to exceptional TS% while leading the league in scoring. The idea that T-Mac was an inefficient chucker before injuries started affecting his play is completely unsupported. T-Mac had a two-year peak where he was arguably the best offensive player in the league, according to a variety of statistics and the eye test.

[Feed Your Head]

https://in.nba.com/news/who-are-the-30-best-players-in-the-nba-heading-into-the-final-stretch-of-the-2019-20-season/roqmjazgyx2118ttebpvh1q1l

Tatum at 12.

[Slax]

https://in.nba.com/news/who-are-the-30-best-players-in-the-nba-heading-into-the-final-stretch-of-the-2019-20-season/roqmjazgyx2118ttebpvh1q1l

Tatum at 12.

Makes you wonder if Tatum has a shot at all-NBA third team.

[LewisnotMiller]

He is a 7 time All-NBA player........... pretty much case closed at that point. You can go back and re-litigate his career, but that pretty much shuts everything down. I'm sure we would go back and have him take different shots during this era, but people didn't look at the game the same way back then.

He was an unbelievable player who had his career ended early by injury. He was an unbelievable player though that rivaled anybody in talent and ability.

Almost everyone during that era were inefficient scorers. Kobe, Iverson, Vince Carter, Paul Pierce, all shot sub .450 fg or worse with high usage. Lots of long 2's were taken back then.

FG% is useless as a measure of scoring efficiency. Kobe and especially Pierce posted TS% numbers that were comfortably above league-average. They simply played in a much tougher defensive environment.

They were certainly far more efficient scorers than somebody like Iverson.

Take a look at their pre hand-checking seasons using relative TS%.

Kobe
99:+3.8
00:+2.3
01:+3.5
02:+2.4
03:+3.1
04:+3.5

Pierce
99: +2.9
00: +2.7
01: +4.5
02: +5.0
03: +1.3
04: +0.1

Iverson
99: -0.3
00: -2.7
01: +0.0
02: -3.1
03: -1.9
04: -3.8

Pierce especially doesn't get enough credit for how efficient a scorer he was. He had some some seasons (01, 02) that were flat-out elite.

Factoring in relativity to their peers makes sense.

[djFan71]

https://in.nba.com/news/who-are-the-30-best-players-in-the-nba-heading-into-the-final-stretch-of-the-2019-20-season/roqmjazgyx2118ttebpvh1q1l

Tatum at 12.

21 year old at 12? What's his Rush?

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

[LewisnotMiller]

https://in.nba.com/news/who-are-the-30-best-players-in-the-nba-heading-into-the-final-stretch-of-the-2019-20-season/roqmjazgyx2118ttebpvh1q1l

Tatum at 12.

Makes you wonder if Tatum has a shot at all-NBA third team.

I think he'd need to keep going hard to the finish line in the same way he's balled out for the last 10-12.

I'd be happily surprised if he doesn't have a mini-slump, or gets rested near the playoffs. Still, it's possible, I think.

[5InOfLouisville]

Here is another JT article, this one from 538. Analytics-based look at his improvement. Gets into his defense, which makes me feel all tingly

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-jayson-tatum-changed-his-game-and-became-a-star/

[exculpatory]

Celtics' title hopes hinge on Tatum's development

https://smart.link/5afa0f94e49a5?component_id=345571&team_id=boston-celtics&action=open

Great read IMO.

Sam, you & I called this 3 years ago!

[Feed Your Head]

Here is another JT article, this one from 538. Analytics-based look at his improvement. Gets into his defense, which makes me feel all tingly

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-jayson-tatum-changed-his-game-and-became-a-star/

This is pretty crazy here.

According to an analysis of Second Spectrum matchup data by Krishna Narsu of Nylon Calculus, Tatum is one of only three players in the league3 who has spent at least 19 percent of his defensive possessions guarding each of point guards, shooting guards, small forwards and power forwards. He has done so well against primary ball-handlers that the Celtics have even had him defending players like Chris Paul and Trae Young in the fourth quarter of recent games.

[zoyathedestroya]

Read on Twitter

[5InOfLouisville]

Here is another JT article, this one from 538. Analytics-based look at his improvement. Gets into his defense, which makes me feel all tingly

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-jayson-tatum-changed-his-game-and-became-a-star/

This is pretty crazy here.

According to an analysis of Second Spectrum matchup data by Krishna Narsu of Nylon Calculus, Tatum is one of only three players in the league3 who has spent at least 19 percent of his defensive possessions guarding each of point guards, shooting guards, small forwards and power forwards. He has done so well against primary ball-handlers that the Celtics have even had him defending players like Chris Paul and Trae Young in the fourth quarter of recent games.

YES. this stood out to me too. Don't get me wrong, his offense is coming along super nicely, but i think this is why he is on the cusp of stardom.

We've all mentioned it, but even when his offense struggles(which is getting rarer and rarer), the celtics always seem to be better with him on the floor, and the numbers support that.

[exculpatory]

He is a 7 time All-NBA player........... pretty much case closed at that point. You can go back and re-litigate his career, but that pretty much shuts everything down. I'm sure we would go back and have him take different shots during this era, but people didn't look at the game the same way back then.

He was an unbelievable player who had his career ended early by injury. He was an unbelievable player though that rivaled anybody in talent and ability.

Almost everyone during that era were inefficient scorers. Kobe, Iverson, Vince Carter, Paul Pierce, all shot sub .450 fg or worse with high usage. Lots of long 2's were taken back then.

FG% is useless as a measure of scoring efficiency. Kobe and especially Pierce posted TS% numbers that were comfortably above league-average. They simply played in a much tougher defensive environment.

They were certainly far more efficient scorers than somebody like Iverson.

Take a look at their pre hand-checking seasons using relative TS%.

Kobe
99:+3.8
00:+2.3
01:+3.5
02:+2.4
03:+3.1
04:+3.5

Pierce
99: +2.9
00: +2.7
01: +4.5
02: +5.0
03: +1.3
04: +0.1

Iverson
99: -0.3
00: -2.7
01: +0.0
02: -3.1
03: -1.9
04: -3.8

Pierce especially doesn't get enough credit for how efficient a scorer he was. He had some some seasons (01, 02) that were flat-out elite.

And those were Paul’s very early years in the NBA - 5 freaking years before KG showed up & they were able to adapt & blend their elite skills together (KG more on the D & vocal leadership side, & Truth more on the O & clutch side), & CO-EQUALLY give us a banner in 08 & what should have been banners in 09 & 10. I have been posting on this board for literally 16 years that Paul was by far the most under appreciated quasi Super Star of his generation. Why? TMac, Vince & Kobe were certainly flashier - and always got more ink - but Paul was ALWAYS a stud & played those guys (and even Bron) at the least equally in most of their head to head matchups. Furthermore, if Paul had been blessed w prime KG during his early years as Kobe was w prime Shaq, it is plausible that he would have been the one to retire w 5 rings!

All that said, if JSmooth contnues to explode & demonstrates consistent excellence during the next few seasons (especially during big time RS games & of course the POs), his career accomplishments may well exceed the Truth’s.

And I will root very hard for that, & the multiple banners that will end up in Boston as a consequence.

[Slax]

https://in.nba.com/news/who-are-the-30-best-players-in-the-nba-heading-into-the-final-stretch-of-the-2019-20-season/roqmjazgyx2118ttebpvh1q1l

Tatum at 12.

Makes you wonder if Tatum has a shot at all-NBA third team.

I think he'd need to keep going hard to the finish line in the same way he's balled out for the last 10-12.

I'd be happily surprised if he doesn't have a mini-slump, or gets rested near the playoffs. Still, it's possible, I think.

Yeah totally possible he sees some regression to the mean. He's playing so much better than early season right now that it's not clear it's totally sustainable.

One thing he has going for him is that (unfortunately) there injuries have hampered or wiped out a good five or six guys who would have been considered for all-NBA if they were 100% healthy. If the season ended today, there would definitely be fewer than 15 players who would be 100% guaranteed to be selected above Tatum without question, but there would be a whole mess of other players who you could compare against him and they have arguments for and against them. So if Tatum keeps playing great and the Celtics end up as a high seed with him as their top scorer and an elite defender, his case for third team could be pretty compelling.

And then next year, he could even improve over his play this year but not make all-NBA at all because he will be competing against newly healthy players like Steph, KD, Kyrie, PG13, Oladipo, etc. Pretty wild thought.

[exculpatory]

Makes you wonder if Tatum has a shot at all-NBA third team.

I think he'd need to keep going hard to the finish line in the same way he's balled out for the last 10-12.

I'd be happily surprised if he doesn't have a mini-slump, or gets rested near the playoffs. Still, it's possible, I think.

Yeah totally possible he sees some regression to the mean. He's playing so much better than early season right now that it's not clear it's totally sustainable.

One thing he has going for him is that (unfortunately) there injuries have hampered or wiped out a good five or six guys who would have been considered for all-NBA if they were 100% healthy. If the season ended today, there would definitely be fewer than 15 players who would be 100% guaranteed to be selected above Tatum without question, but there would be a whole mess of other players who you could compare against him and they have arguments for and against them. So if Tatum keeps playing great and the Celtics end up as a high seed with him as their top scorer and an elite defender, his case for third team could be pretty compelling.

And then next year, he could even improve over his play this year but not make all-NBA at all because he will be competing against newly healthy players like Steph, KD, Kyrie, PG13, Oladipo, etc. Pretty wild thought.

Steph is wildly overrated.

[Slax]

I think he'd need to keep going hard to the finish line in the same way he's balled out for the last 10-12.

I'd be happily surprised if he doesn't have a mini-slump, or gets rested near the playoffs. Still, it's possible, I think.

Yeah totally possible he sees some regression to the mean. He's playing so much better than early season right now that it's not clear it's totally sustainable.

One thing he has going for him is that (unfortunately) there injuries have hampered or wiped out a good five or six guys who would have been considered for all-NBA if they were 100% healthy. If the season ended today, there would definitely be fewer than 15 players who would be 100% guaranteed to be selected above Tatum without question, but there would be a whole mess of other players who you could compare against him and they have arguments for and against them. So if Tatum keeps playing great and the Celtics end up as a high seed with him as their top scorer and an elite defender, his case for third team could be pretty compelling.

And then next year, he could even improve over his play this year but not make all-NBA at all because he will be competing against newly healthy players like Steph, KD, Kyrie, PG13, Oladipo, etc. Pretty wild thought.

Steph is wildly overrated.

Be that as it may, he's pretty much guaranteed a spot on an all-NBA team next year if he's healthy.