Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2

[Parliament10]

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[threrf23]

In case you need inspiration for an impromptu face mask:

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[threrf23]

If true, this is all two months too late, but is encouraging nonetheless IMO.

Donald Trump’s top adviser on coronavirus testing said that by May the U.S. will be in the “ballpark” of the diagnostic capacity it needs, should the president decide to recommend parts of the country relax economy-crushing social distancing practices.

Admiral Brett Giroir said in an interview Saturday the U.S. is working on four forms of diagnostics it needs to reopen the economy: widespread surveillance to catch new flare-ups; testing of people who have specific symptoms; contact-tracing for confirmed cases; and antibody testing to know who’s recovered from the virus, which he said is weeks away.

Pence has touted the looming availability of the antibody test. “When validated, we’re confident that the production will scale up to tens of millions of tests very quickly,” Trump said Friday.

Trump has taken particular interest in a new rapid test by Abbott Laboratories, which delivers results in as little as five minutes. The president took an Abbott test himself.

The company, which unveiled the device in late March, already has 18,000 toaster-sized testing machines in use and is shipping 50,000 tests a day. “We expect the production of that to double,” Giroir said.

‘Test is Not a Test’
The U.S. has about 200 higher-volume m2000 machines, according to Abbott spokesman John Koval, and has shipped out a million tests. Trump’s administration has grumbled about health facilities not using that platform enough. Giroir said Saturday they hope to triple usage of that platform in May to 60% from 20% now.

Coordination is complicated, he said, with a range of tests and different needs in different regions. “A test is not a test is not a test,” he said. “The picture is much more available now. I think we know exactly where the industrial production is, the exact roadblocks to many.”

The U.S. continues to have spot shortages of swabs, the small sticks used to collect medical samples, including for Covid-19 testing. This week it will receive a shipment of 1.75 million swabs to distribute, Giroir said. “We are making sure that the public health labs are completely flush in swabs, we are making sure that the community based testing sites are flush in swabs,” he said.

There are other hurdles to reopening. Pence has stressed the need to see major communities coming down off their caseload peaks, as well as the development of therapeutics and the issuance of guidelines for businesses to open. CDC Director Robert Redfield has said the U.S. will also need to convince Americans that it’s safe to begin to ease restrictions.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/u-s-testing-capacity-in-ballpark-for-may-reopening-czar-says

[Dave_From_NB]

I wonder if they mean September 2020, or 2021?
Because, they don't begin human trials 'til near the end of April (2020).

And Dr. Fauci and everyone says it takes 12-18 months, after that begins.
September 2021, would put it at about 16 months after the trials begin.

lol watch it mean 2021.

I try though to find the optimism. Yeah but these vaccines take a long long time usually to develop safely.

Yeah. it could be. Otherwise, they're coming up with it in about 4 months, for the whole world?
That would be fast as F***.

"Ready" implies ready for mass production - with mass production taking months (according to the article.

I truly believe that a vaccine will be ready far in advance to what the medical experts are saying is the fast track timeframe. These are not normal times, all the best minds are working on it, and the context of the vaccine being "safe" has a different value than for virus' which are less harmful.

President Trump is standing at podiums telling people to self medicate in spite of expert advice, if you don't think he will roll the dice on a vaccine before the election then I think you're underestimating the lengths at which he'll go to get re-elected. Get ready to roll up your sleeves.

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

Don't rush the vaccine. A faulty vaccine is the precursor to the inevitable zombie apocalypse.

Seriously though, I hope everyone is having a safe and happy Easter. Found out last week that my buddy's wife caught the virus, and had been hospitalized for 3 weeks. She is a 40 year old with no underlying health problems, regular jogger who used to run half-marathons. Thankfully, she got to go home on Thursday.

[zoyathedestroya]

My friends in the city are telling me it seems people are going back to "normal life" and are already out on the streets even with the lockdown extended until month-end. The same is happening here in the province where I'm at. Lots of vehicles and pedestrians out and about.

It is seriously pissing me off.

The sooner they're going back to their normal lives, it becomes even more impossible for me to go back to mine. UGHHH.

[zoyathedestroya]

So I guess this is what they mean about it being exponential?

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[Dave_From_NB]

My friends in the city are telling me it seems people are going back to "normal life" and are already out on the streets even with the lockdown extended until month-end. The same is happening here in the province where I'm at. Lots of vehicles and pedestrians out and about.

It is seriously pissing me off.

The sooner they're going back to their normal lives, it becomes even more impossible for me to go back to mine. UGHHH.

People aren't restricted to their homes, they are permitted to go outside as long as they social distance. At least in the Maritimes, they get fined if they don't social distance. Cops are hanging around closed parks and stopping vehicles that don't look like they have only family units in them.

Kind of a funny story in Nova Scotia on the weekend. Some 18 year old was 50 km over the speed limit so was fined 2,500. And since he had a friend with him, they were also fined 1,000 each because they weren't social distancing. Oh, and the car was confiscated. Try explaining that one to mom.

[claycarver]

So I guess this is what they mean about it being exponential?

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It looks like new cases have been pretty flat in the US about April 4

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/

I remember someone on this board a few days ago predicted that we'd have about 3,000 deaths a day by the end of the week, and that looked like a reasonable guess. But then they stalled out around 2000 a day.

I don't know the future, but I am hopeful.

[Slax]

We seem to be past the peak in NYC. We started to see a sharp reduction in the hospitalization data about 5-6 days ago, and I'm assuming that that trend will show as having continued once the most recent data fills in for the last couple days (sometimes hard to judge by weekend data). My wife says on her latest shift, deaths at her hospital have reduced from about once an hour to once every two to three hours. So we're seeing some real positive trends here.

[watsonthedragon]

I'm still nervous that people (and even more seriously, politicians) are going to see these improvements and localized flattened curves as a sign to start things back up and get life back to "normal" and if that happens we're just going to see a new curve.

[Slax]

**** news: my wife's coworker passed away. One more fallen hero.

[31to6]

I'm still nervous that people (and even more seriously, politicians) are going to see these improvements and localized flattened curves as a sign to start things back up and get life back to "normal" and if that happens we're just going to see a new curve.

that's guaranteed to happen. Best case: antibody tests over the next month will show a lot of people have been exposed and developed sufficient antibodies to not get sick or be an asymptomatic carrier. We phase back in smart (immune certificates? sketchy but we'll need to protect the vulnerable). Vaccine is developed on a wildly accelerated timeframe that provides effective and durable immunity.

All of those are 'if's --
if the antibody test is reliable enough (current best estimates are 80 - 90%, most of those being churned out now are unregulated by FDA)
if the body develops an effective immune response in most cases (no guarantee -- what's up with reinfection/reactivation in S.Korea?)
if the % of the population that needs to be immune for herd immunity to kick in is on the lower side (with R0 also on the lower side)
if a vaccine can be developed that is safe, effective, and durable (cautious optimism but faaaarrr from a guarantee)

[Parliament10]

**** news: my wife's coworker passed away. One more fallen hero.

Wow. Sorry to hear that.
I hope that your wife and you, and your family are doing well.

[SuperDeluxe]

This is a very interesting article: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/africa-covid19-advantages-disadvantages-by-denis-chopera-2020-03-2020-03

It focuses mostly in Africa, however there's also some info like this:

To be sure, Africa is not suffering as much as many expected – at least not so far. Though the number of affected countries on the continent has risen to 43, the virus does not seem to be spreading as rapidly as it has elsewhere.

Some scientists think this could be partly a matter of climate. One study found that the COVID-19 virus may be less stable at higher temperatures, with the optimal temperature for transmission probably hovering around 8.72°C. Temperatures in most African countries rarely drop below 15°C. This does not mean that the COVID-19 virus cannot be transmitted in hotter climates, only that it may be easier to contain there.

8.72 degrees Celsius is approx. 48 degrees Fahrenheit.

[canman1971]

**** news: my wife's coworker passed away. One more fallen hero.

So sorry to hear. Thoughts and prayers all.

[Parliament10]

This is a very interesting article: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/africa-covid19-advantages-disadvantages-by-denis-chopera-2020-03-2020-03

It focuses mostly in Africa, however there's also some info like this:

To be sure, Africa is not suffering as much as many expected – at least not so far. Though the number of affected countries on the continent has risen to 43, the virus does not seem to be spreading as rapidly as it has elsewhere.

Some scientists think this could be partly a matter of climate. One study found that the COVID-19 virus may be less stable at higher temperatures, with the optimal temperature for transmission probably hovering around 8.72°C. Temperatures in most African countries rarely drop below 15°C. This does not mean that the COVID-19 virus cannot be transmitted in hotter climates, only that it may be easier to contain there.

8.72 degrees Celsius is approx. 48 degrees Fahrenheit.

Good to know. Africa as a continent, does seem to be the last to be affected.
Let's hope that this holds. Cause they don't have the health care there, that most other places have.

[threrf23]

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[Bad-Thoma]

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Ffs I hope that police chief gets fired. That level of ignorance makes me feel physically ill.

[Bad-Thoma]

**** news: my wife's coworker passed away. One more fallen hero.

That's terrible to hear, thinking the best for you and your wife. She's a hero.