Captain_Caveman wrote:Fencer reregistered wrote:Captain_Caveman wrote:
Bernadoni is completely on point here. Can anyone explain why an opt-out and resign for like 3y/85-90m is not the move for both sides here? It saves us $6-7m on the cap this year, without actually costing him $6-7m this year. It increases his trade value, and eliminates his flight risk this offseason or next. And a guy with an injury history gets some more financial security, rather than rolling the dice to wait a year for free agency.
Even if the eventual move is to flip him or depth or a big, or to reduce payroll to make room for Tatum's extension next year, you do that IMO.
The argument is that an apparent $10 million reduction in one year's pay, for example, might wind up being a true $6-7 million reduction instead.
I'm not sure how much difference that actually makes to Hayward's calculations.
I hear you, but it doesn't need to be much with the numbers I am talking about. Bigger question is what he feels his earning potential is next offseason. I think the chances are pretty good that he can make more money by taking the $34m and waiting than signing a 3y/85-90m now, but he's not Giannis and there is a lot of risk for him on that dice roll.
Well, it's about escrow and how players get paid. They might be on a deal that pays 34m, but it's about % of profits, so the league guesses on what profits might be worst case and holds some salary from all players, usualy 5-10% in escrow. It gets paid out at league end if they made all the money expected, if not it's held and paid to owners to get that actual BRI split.
Because of huge loss in money that 34m might have 30% removed this year he won't get back. So 24m is actual pay out this year on 1 year. Now what if next year we get fans back, profits go way up and they have 0% back to owners. And he signs 3 years at 70m. he ends up with 94m actual money but risks injury and ending with a 3 year 45m contract or worse.
If he opts out and goes 4 years 25m with increased money each year. 22m, 24m, 26m, 28m. And the 22 only gives 15m, he ends up with 15 plus 24 plus 26 plus 28 = 93m. Same as above basically with security against another injury.
Boston saves money and avoids tax. He gets same long term money opting out because this year so much is going back to owners where in the future it's unlikely that high.