2020 NBA Draft Thread, Part 2 -- (8PM, Wed, Nov. 18, ESPN)

[BleedGreen1989]

It's been a few weeks since Boston played.. Anyone change their top 3 or 4 for the Celtics pick at 14.

Mine is slightly tweaked. No longer do I have Kira Lewis in my top 4..

For me, regardless of Hayward (I expect) being on the team or not.

1 - Sediq Bey - fits in just too well and can play right away at a good level. Great floor without a great ceiling.

2 - A Nesmith - a 2-3 perfect 3 and D player who also is rthe perfect compliment to Tatum/Brown/Kemba

3 - Pat Williams - a 3-4-5 Boy in an ever growing man's body. Might have the lowest floor of the top 2, but a higher possible ceiling. bit at 6'8 225 and just turning 19, wouldn't surprise me to see him at 6'9 and 250 playing all front court positions well within a year or two.

4 J Smith - still up and down on him, yet his inside/outside potential both on offense and defense is exactly what the doctor ordered for a center on Boston.

I don't really get the "3&D" label for Nesmith. He's not that good defensively. Sort of a stiff athlete and isn't very impactful.

That's not to say I don't like him, I do. But I'm not expecting much out of him defensively but to amount to average on that side.

[flintsky21]

If obi toppin is at 14 would you take him?

Definitely. Celts could use him as a scoring punch off the bench ala Montrezl Harrell or Brandon Clarke. And unlike Kanter, you could actually play him with Rob Williams or Theis or any other 5 (actually, that might even be the ideal situation to cover up for his defensive deficiencies).

[BostonCouchGM]

It's been a few weeks since Boston played.. Anyone change their top 3 or 4 for the Celtics pick at 14.

Mine is slightly tweaked. No longer do I have Kira Lewis in my top 4..

For me, regardless of Hayward (I expect) being on the team or not.

1 - Sediq Bey - fits in just too well and can play right away at a good level. Great floor without a great ceiling.

2 - A Nesmith - a 2-3 perfect 3 and D player who also is rthe perfect compliment to Tatum/Brown/Kemba

3 - Pat Williams - a 3-4-5 Boy in an ever growing man's body. Might have the lowest floor of the top 2, but a higher possible ceiling. bit at 6'8 225 and just turning 19, wouldn't surprise me to see him at 6'9 and 250 playing all front court positions well within a year or two.

4 J Smith - still up and down on him, yet his inside/outside potential both on offense and defense is exactly what the doctor ordered for a center on Boston.

I don't understand how people have Saddiq Bey over Tyler Bey especially considering Tyler is likely to be there for our second or even third pick (at least going by mock drafts). Tyler is a much better defender, capable of defending multiple positions. He's more versatile on offense. He can post up, he has a turn around J, can spot up from three, runs the floor exceptionally well and is an above average passer with high BBIQ. He's also a much better athlete than Saddiq with a powerful build, leaping ability and longer wingspan. I don't see why anyone would take Sadiq over Tyler no matter where they're picking let alone accounting for #14 over #26 and #30.

I'm starting to think Tyler will be the steal of the draft if he's taken where he's mocked. There are half a dozen guys going in the lottery in these mocks I wouldn't take over him. He reminds me of Kawhi in so many ways. If he works on his handle and shot and make it above average like Kawhi did between being drafted and his rookie season, he could be special. I think his game translates so much better for the pros than college. I have a feeling if he was taken #14 people would be pissed whereas I would understand because I wouldn't want to risk him not falling to #26. I wouldn't draft Saddiq tbh. He's a poor man's Mikal Bridges. Let someone else take him which will allow someone else better to fall to us.

Nesmith is Jaylen Brown 2.0. Severely limited on offense. A pure 3 and sometimes D. He's not even on my radar and I'd be shocked that he's so high on boards except for the fact that these draft gurus are anything but.

Patrick Williams is a Danny Ainge pick if I ever did see one. Undersized without a position. He lacks any semblance of offensive skills to be a SF despite having the perfect body and athleticism, and he lacks the size to be an old school PF that his skills align with. All without the BBIQ and passing you'd need for him to be a small ball 4/5. I see Jordan Bell. I guess if we traded out of the first and got an early 2nd I'd take him. He's another guy I know will get overdrafted by some G.M. and I hope it happens so someone much better drops to us.

I was originally higher on Jalen Smith who is what everyone was hoping for from and many of you sadly still believe, Robert Williams is. Basically Capela 2.0. Part of me sees some upside and part of me sees just a big body that can't defend the perimeter, nor has any offensive skills beyond dunks and occasional spot up jumpers like Capela. So I wouldn't take him at #14, but depending on who is left on the board with our late 1st I would consider him. TBH, I'd much rather let someone else take him and take Paul Reed later who I see as Theis 2.0 but actually an upgrade.

[threrf23]

I don't understand how people have Saddiq Bey over Tyler Bey especially considering Tyler is likely to be there for our second or even third pick (at least going by mock drafts). Tyler is a much better defender, capable of defending multiple positions. He's more versatile on offense. He can post up, he has a turn around J, can spot up from three, runs the floor exceptionally well and is an above average passer with high BBIQ. He's also a much better athlete than Saddiq with a powerful build, leaping ability and longer wingspan. I don't see why anyone would take Sadiq over Tyler no matter where they're picking let alone accounting for #14 over #26 and #30.

1/3 A/TO ratio as a sophomore, not much better as a senior. He (Tyler) is in the Andre Roberson mold, and his stats say he is a lesser Andre Roberson. Roberson was the better shooter, had a better A/TO ratio, had better defensive stats and even rebounded more. Scouting capsules don't seem to contradict.

Saddiq is IMO something like a better Jared Dudley; not a specimen but should maximize his potential. Apples to oranges.

[Half-Full]

I don't understand how people have Saddiq Bey over Tyler Bey especially considering Tyler is likely to be there for our second or even third pick (at least going by mock drafts). Tyler is a much better defender, capable of defending multiple positions. He's more versatile on offense. He can post up, he has a turn around J, can spot up from three, runs the floor exceptionally well and is an above average passer with high BBIQ. He's also a much better athlete than Saddiq with a powerful build, leaping ability and longer wingspan. I don't see why anyone would take Sadiq over Tyler no matter where they're picking let alone accounting for #14 over #26 and #30.

I'm starting to think Tyler will be the steal of the draft if he's taken where he's mocked. There are half a dozen guys going in the lottery in these mocks I wouldn't take over him. He reminds me of Kawhi in so many ways.

Right with you on Tyler Bey. What does Saddiq offer that makes him a better pick at 14? Tyler is projected to go lower, and if he is available at 26 he would be a steal.

[Bleeding Green]

If Andre Roberson had any sort of handle and could shoot even as well as Russ Westbrook, he'd be a great player. Tyler Bey still hasn't even taken any threes (59 in three years), but blows Roberson out of the water in terms of FT shooting and volume. No chance you can call Roberson a better shooter than Bey. Both look pretty rough mechanically, but at least Bey can knock down his free ones. Some of the midrange jumpers from Tyler Bey this year are pretty hilarious, reminds me of any time Smart attempts anything that isn't a three. Would be pretty exciting to see someone on the roster who looked to attack the basket above all else. Brown is the only one on the roster and even he takes way too many midrangers.

If the options are Seddiq at 14 or Tyler at 26, I like Tyler at 26 as a better value too. Seems like every year we have two players in the first round with the same last name, but who aren't related.

lmao look at this pull-up jumper at 44 seconds:

Watch on YouTube

[threrf23]

No chance you can call Roberson a better shooter than Bey. Both look pretty rough mechanically, but at least Bey can knock down his free ones.

Maybe, I'm not a scout. But Tyler Bey shot 5-28 from three his first two seasons at Colorado, 13-31 as a 21 y/o senior. Roberson shot 31 of 85 from three his first two seasons at Colorado, 19 of 58 as a ~21 y/o junior. Roberson was statistically a much better three point shooter.

[Bleeding Green]

Look at Roberson's free throws. They're both trash from 3 on basically zero volume. 3p shooting in college is a worthless metric to me. They just don't take enough and a college three is a long midrange NBA shot. How are we gonna judge based on 30 attempts in a year? Steph Curry could easily go 10/30 and people would say he was trash. Tyler went 13/31 this year, which is pretty meaningless even if he shot well.

But to me, if you can knock down 75% of your free throws on exceptional volume like Bey has, I would be inclined to say he has some shooting ability even if the 3 looks rough right now. I'm def no shooting scout, though.

[threrf23]

Look at Roberson's free throws. They're both trash from 3 on basically zero volume. 3p shooting in college is a worthless metric to me. They just don't take enough and a college three is a long midrange NBA shot. How are we gonna judge based on 30 attempts in a year? Steph Curry could easily go 10/30 and people would say he was trash.

Come on now, if he could hit them, he'd take them? Or at least hit a percentage of the threes he took?

FT% is probably a good measure of a player's ability to hit undefended, non-rushed three point shots. That's overrated.

I'm arguing semantics, if I pass on (Tyler) Bey, it's not because Roberson was a better three point shooter in college.

[Bleeding Green]

I dunno enough about Colorado and I don't watch much college basketball beyond trying to watch scouting reports. He hit the ones he took and CO was 183rd in the nation in 3PA so doesn't seem like it was a part of the team's play. I'm not going to hold it against him that he only took 31 threes when he hit 42 pct of them. He took nearly a third of his team's free throw attempts and finished really well inside so Colorado's game probably centered around that. FT% is really important for players. Are there any good 3p shooters who shot poorly from the line in college?

[threrf23]

I dunno enough about Colorado and I don't watch much college basketball beyond trying to watch scouting reports. He hit the ones he took and CO was 183rd in the nation in 3PA so doesn't seem like it was a part of the team's play. I'm not going to hold it against him that he only took 31 threes when he hit 42 pct of them. He took nearly a third of his team's free throw attempts and finished really well inside so Colorado's game probably centered around that. FT% is really important for players. Are there any good 3p shooters who shot poorly from the line in college?

As freshmen at least, Paul Pierce shot 61%, Steve Kerr shot 69%, Jason Richardson shot 55%, Jason Kapono shot 68%, Robert Horry shot 64%, Reggie Miller shot 64%. If we are talking full collegiate career, I don't know.

There are def guys like Bruce Bowen and Jason Kidd who didn't shoot real well from the FT line but went on to develop a dependable outside shot. There are also guys who were excellent free throw shooters in college, and never amounted to much, likely many guys who were good free throw shooters but never became serviceable outside shooters.

FT% is likely a better statistical measure of outside shooting ability at quick glance because it is minimally affected by age and development curve and game context, so there is less analysis to get wrong. But, while it figures that a great three point shooter is likely to also be a great FT shooter, there is no reason a good free throw shooter will automatically be or become a good three point shooter. FT% probably is a solid measure of raw shooting ability, but if a player has raw shooting ability and can't translate it to his game that could also arguably be seen as a red flag IMO.

[CelticsLV]

Defensively Tyler Bey definitely is way ahead of Saddiq. In terms of energy and hustle Saddiq isn't close either. But that A/TO ratio is brutal. He pretty much has no ball handling ability - Ojeleye level bad. 3p volume isn't there but seems like he can be a capable set shooter becuse he is decent from FT line on significant volume. Honestly I don't see Saddiq providing anything else on offense besides his 3p shooting.

I agree with Bleeding Green here. Value wise Tyler Bey at 26 is way more attractive than Saddiq at 14.

[AgentGreen]

Tyrese Maxey is probably the best highest upside reward guard at #14 imo.

He's one of the best rim attacking guards in this draft and is a very good defender. He has that dog in him. I love to watch his defensive highlights and that says enough about his defensive potential imo, plus he's a solid offensive player as well. We lack a guard with his qualities.We have enough chuckers already on our team. His weaknesses are easy to polish. I think that he's the only guard outside the mock top 10 with no concerning weaknesses. .

If we go Guard at #14 i'd go for Maxey.

This draft is so hard to predict who goes where. If there wouldve been a combine some players would climb the boards between pick 10 and 20, and i think that Maxey would be one of the guys who would climb on the boards.

[djFan71]

Why not both Beys? Saddiq, Paul Reed, Tyler.
Tons of switchable, tougher wings/swings/bigs when added with our existing guys.

[AgentGreen]

If obi toppin is at 14 would you take him?

He's giving me Derrick Williams vibes. Pass!

[snowman]

Tyler Bey's stats look good at first glance, by looking at his induvial games logs, his 3 point shooting sucks. Sure he is listed as hitting 41% but that is on 1 attempt per game. He had 2 games all season where he made 2 three pointers. Saddiq Bey had 20 games this season where he made 2 or more and had 10 games where he made 4 or more and at at 45% clip. Shooting is what we need, and thats what Saddiq Bey is, a shooter.

Hell, I got no problem taking Tyler Bey with the 26th, we can never have enough wings. like him a lot too. If we are lacking in 3 point shooting Saddiq Bey is the way to go. But these 2 are as different as apples and oranges.

[captain green]

If obi toppin is at 14 would you take him?

Definitely. Celts could use him as a scoring punch off the bench ala Montrezl Harrell or Brandon Clarke. And unlike Kanter, you could actually play him with Rob Williams or Theis or any other 5 (actually, that might even be the ideal situation to cover up for his defensive deficiencies).

If he falls to 14 we just won the draft. Insta big offense. No way he is the guy that falls. If he does though I'll be happy as a clam in non boiling butter sauce.

[Bleeding Green]

I dunno enough about Colorado and I don't watch much college basketball beyond trying to watch scouting reports. He hit the ones he took and CO was 183rd in the nation in 3PA so doesn't seem like it was a part of the team's play. I'm not going to hold it against him that he only took 31 threes when he hit 42 pct of them. He took nearly a third of his team's free throw attempts and finished really well inside so Colorado's game probably centered around that. FT% is really important for players. Are there any good 3p shooters who shot poorly from the line in college?

As freshmen at least, Paul Pierce shot 61%, Steve Kerr shot 69%, Jason Richardson shot 55%, Jason Kapono shot 68%, Robert Horry shot 64%, Reggie Miller shot 64%. If we are talking full collegiate career, I don't know.

There are def guys like Bruce Bowen and Jason Kidd who didn't shoot real well from the FT line but went on to develop a dependable outside shot. There are also guys who were excellent free throw shooters in college, and never amounted to much, likely many guys who were good free throw shooters but never became serviceable outside shooters.

FT% is likely a better statistical measure of outside shooting ability at quick glance because it is minimally affected by age and development curve and game context, so there is less analysis to get wrong. But, while it figures that a great three point shooter is likely to also be a great FT shooter, there is no reason a good free throw shooter will automatically be or become a good three point shooter. FT% probably is a solid measure of raw shooting ability, but if a player has raw shooting ability and can't translate it to his game that could also arguably be seen as a red flag IMO.

I guess if we just use tiny samples of just their freshman season when these players take like 50 FTA in a season then FT shooting is meaningless. Steve Kerr was an 81.5 FT shooter in college, Pierce 69.7. J-Rich 65, Kapono 83, Miller 83.6. There are always anomalies; JRich was always a mediocre-to-bad FT shooter but good 3p guy, same with Bowen, although Bowen is the biggest anomaly for sure. Jason Kidd took forever to be average from 3 which could prob be predicted from his FT shooting in college. I'm no stat wizard though, I just try to read the studies that predict NBA 3p percentage using college FT, height, and college 3p shooting. None are perfect and it's pretty much a crapshoot because college basketball is not even the same sport as the NBA in some situations and the samples are way too small.

3p shooting is such a crapshoot even in the NBA. It's just too small of a sample year to year to have any real idea what a player's true ability is based just on the percentages. Just take the guys who can at least knock down the free ones and go from there.

I don't even know what I'm arguing lmao; Tyler Bey looks like he does enough of the things that I like in a player (wing, long arms, great defender, attacks the basket, good ft shooter) that if they can get him at 26 and hope he develops a 3 he could be a geniune steal. And if he sucks at threes forever, he still has enough game that he can be a good rotational player (like Derrick Jones Jr level) and an improvement over the Green/Ojeleye spot. Just gimme all the athletic long-armed wings who can't shoot and I will die a happy man.

[threrf23]

If obi toppin is at 14 would you take him?

Definitely. Celts could use him as a scoring punch off the bench ala Montrezl Harrell or Brandon Clarke. And unlike Kanter, you could actually play him with Rob Williams or Theis or any other 5 (actually, that might even be the ideal situation to cover up for his defensive deficiencies).

If he falls to 14 we just won the draft. Insta big offense. No way he is the guy that falls. If he does though I'll be happy as a clam in non boiling butter sauce.

It wouldn't really surprise me if Toppin fell out of the top 10, but that's mainly because I personally view him as a borderline top 10 draft who should go no higher than the 7-15 range. In terms of strengths and weaknesses, to a lesser extent build, I think Carl Landry might be the best comp for him.

If he progresses as a consistent threat from outside and progresses to be an above average defender, I think he's a valuable player and a good pick at 14, but I'd still weigh him up alongside guys like Nesmith and Bey.

[BleedGreen1989]

Tyrese Maxey is probably the best highest upside reward guard at #14 imo.

He's one of the best rim attacking guards in this draft and is a very good defender. He has that dog in him. I love to watch his defensive highlights and that says enough about his defensive potential imo, plus he's a solid offensive player as well. We lack a guard with his qualities.We have enough chuckers already on our team. His weaknesses are easy to polish. I think that he's the only guard outside the mock top 10 with no concerning weaknesses. .

If we go Guard at #14 i'd go for Maxey.

This draft is so hard to predict who goes where. If there wouldve been a combine some players would climb the boards between pick 10 and 20, and i think that Maxey would be one of the guys who would climb on the boards.

Agreed completely. Maxey just has that "it" factor. He's absolutely going to be an impact player in his career and reminds me of Smart some. Plus, go look at the recent Kentucky players drafted in the lottery. There's something to that (outside Malik).

And yes, this draft order is nearly impossible to figure out in this climate.