Free Agent/Trade/Waiver Thread, 2025-26, part 2

[bigfoot_cryptozoology]

If Kawhi is the tip of the iceberg,
the NBA season could be greatly changed before
it even starts...

[fallguy]

The new ownership will go in the direction that increases their equity in the franchise. That means they won't tank voluntarily unless it's for a generational talent. If White or Brown goes down with a serious injury in October they may tank involuntarily buit they won't do it unless they have to.

These guys have spent 6 billion dollars on an illiquid investment. You can't sell it on a stock exchange and the market for a private sale is limited to a very few wealthy investors. The only way to make money is to sell the team (or your interest in the team if you are a minority investor) for more than you paid for it, after accounting for inflation. What makes the team more valuable? There are many factors, but one of the biggest is winning.

I'm pretty sure Boston's record in 25-26 will not affect what Chisholm gets for the Celtics in 15, 20 or more years.

Not in the short run. But if the mediocrity continues, it will. The failed Pitino regime certainly helped Grousbeck & Co. to purchase the franchise in 2002 for the bargain price of $360M.

I'm not worried about mediocrity continuing when mediocrity hasn't started or even been seen in these parts for a couple of decades.

[Bad-Thoma]

Not in the short run. But if the mediocrity continues, it will. The failed Pitino regime certainly helped Grousbeck & Co. to purchase the franchise in 2002 for the bargain price of $360M.

[Curmudgeon]

I'm pretty sure Boston's record in 25-26 will not affect what Chisholm gets for the Celtics in 15, 20 or more years.

Not in the short run. But if the mediocrity continues, it will. The failed Pitino regime certainly helped Grousbeck & Co. to purchase the franchise in 2002 for the bargain price of $360M.

I'm not worried about mediocrity continuing when mediocrity hasn't started or even been seen in these parts for a couple of decades.

Yes, not since the Obie years-- which is one reason why Grousbeck & Co. cleared 6 billion, almost 16 times their original investment.

[djFan71]

Read on Twitter

Looks like the S&T Cam for Simons option is out the window. Not that it was really ever "in the window" (???) but, now it's really not.

[fallguy]

10 teams with cap space means bye-bye Simons one way or another.

[Fierce1]

10 teams with cap space means bye-bye Simons one way or another.

Right now only 3 teams are under the cap.

Bulls and Jazz are just 2m-3m under the cap.

Nets are the only team with 10m or more of free cap space.

[Fierce1]

Read on Twitter

Looks like the S&T Cam for Simons option is out the window. Not that it was really ever "in the window" (???) but, now it's really not.

Which adds another road closed to a Simons trade.

[redslastlaugh]

Looks like the S&T Cam for Simons option is out the window. Not that it was really ever "in the window" (???) but, now it's really not.

Which adds another road closed to a Simons trade.

I think probably we're looking at a leaguewide re-appraisal of what is fair value for Cam Thomas type of players in the league (including Ant Simons). These guys who can average 20 pts feel like they're worth big money but they're learning their value is just not the same anymore.

Post up centers had the same thing happen to them ten years ago, when Roy Hibbert and Tomofey Mosgov rapidly went from earning 8 figures to completly out of the NBA. Even Brook Lopez, before his 3pt shot was bonafide, was signing for a league minimum just to stay in the league.

This is the revaluation of smallish scoring guards.

[Fierce1]

Looks like the S&T Cam for Simons option is out the window. Not that it was really ever "in the window" (???) but, now it's really not.

Which adds another road closed to a Simons trade.

I think probably we're looking at a leaguewide re-appraisal of what is fair value for Cam Thomas type of players in the league (including Ant Simons). These guys who can average 20 pts feel like they're worth big money but they're learning their value is just not the same anymore.

Post up centers had the same thing happen to them ten years ago, when Roy Hibbert and Tomofey Mosgov rapidly went from earning 8 figures to completly out of the NBA. Even Brook Lopez, before his 3pt shot was bonafide, was signing for a league minimum just to stay in the league.

This is the revaluation of smallish scoring guards.

Yeah, seems it's headed in that direction for small scoring guards.

That's why since the Cs got Simons and there were rumors that the Cs were flipping him, I think the best thing to do is increase his trade value by letting him play until December, January, or February.

Right now it's really looking like there is no market for Simons.

So why force a trade that will only result in the Cs giving up a pick or picks just to get rid of Simons?

I don't believe in tanking right from the start.
Cs should play to win all the way up to the trade deadline.
If it's not looking good then go for a lottery pick after All-Star.

For that scenario to happen, the Cs will need to replace the missing 27 ppg from Tatum.
Simons can cover most of that 27 ppg.
That's why I believe keeping Simons for a few months is the way to go.

[phincsfan]

The new ownership will go in the direction that increases their equity in the franchise. That means they won't tank voluntarily unless it's for a generational talent. If White or Brown goes down with a serious injury in October they may tank involuntarily buit they won't do it unless they have to.

These guys have spent 6 billion dollars on an illiquid investment. You can't sell it on a stock exchange and the market for a private sale is limited to a very few wealthy investors. The only way to make money is to sell the team (or your interest in the team if you are a minority investor) for more than you paid for it, after accounting for inflation. What makes the team more valuable? There are many factors, but one of the biggest is winning.

I'm pretty sure Boston's record in 25-26 will not affect what Chisholm gets for the Celtics in 15, 20 or more years.

Not in the short run. But if the mediocrity continues, it will. The failed Pitino regime certainly helped Grousbeck & Co. to purchase the franchise in 2002 for the bargain price of $360M.

I'm trying to get a more detailed list, but the Cavs were bought by Gilbert in 05' for 375mil, Cuban bought the Mavs in 2000 for 285mil, Suns were bought by Sarver in o4' for 401mil and the Sonics were bought in 06' for 350mil.

360mil seems close to the going rate back then.

[Curmudgeon]

I'm pretty sure Boston's record in 25-26 will not affect what Chisholm gets for the Celtics in 15, 20 or more years.

Not in the short run. But if the mediocrity continues, it will. The failed Pitino regime certainly helped Grousbeck & Co. to purchase the franchise in 2002 for the bargain price of $360M.

I'm trying to get a more detailed list, but the Cavs were bought by Gilbert in 05' for 375mil, Cuban bought the Mavs in 2000 for 285mil, Suns were bought by Sarver in o4' for 401mil and the Sonics were bought in 06' for 350mil.

360mil seems close to the going rate back then.

None of those other teams had 16 championships and international brand recognition. The Celtics did.

[djFan71]

Which adds another road closed to a Simons trade.

I think probably we're looking at a leaguewide re-appraisal of what is fair value for Cam Thomas type of players in the league (including Ant Simons). These guys who can average 20 pts feel like they're worth big money but they're learning their value is just not the same anymore.

Post up centers had the same thing happen to them ten years ago, when Roy Hibbert and Tomofey Mosgov rapidly went from earning 8 figures to completly out of the NBA. Even Brook Lopez, before his 3pt shot was bonafide, was signing for a league minimum just to stay in the league.

This is the revaluation of smallish scoring guards.

Yeah, seems it's headed in that direction for small scoring guards.

That's why since the Cs got Simons and there were rumors that the Cs were flipping him, I think the best thing to do is increase his trade value by letting him play until December, January, or February.

Right now it's really looking like there is no market for Simons.

So why force a trade that will only result in the Cs giving up a pick or picks just to get rid of Simons?

I don't believe in tanking right from the start.
Cs should play to win all the way up to the trade deadline.
If it's not looking good then go for a lottery pick after All-Star.

For that scenario to happen, the Cs will need to replace the missing 27 ppg from Tatum.
Simons can cover most of that 27 ppg.
That's why I believe keeping Simons for a few months is the way to go.

We've been down this road before, but I don't necessarily equate trading Simons to tanking. Removing him removes a lot of points - no argument there. But it also opens development time for Baylor, Walsh and Oogo.

I just don't see Simons' value swinging that dramatically by playing a few months here. But, it could happen if all the stars align with his effort and a contender needing scoring at the deadline. If there's really no deals without paying a pick now that ducks the tax (or brings back a long term asset), then that's pretty much the option left.

I do think you can get some of the garbage list of players I've thrown out before without using a pick - at least not a 1st. And saving $100M by ducking the tax (as hugepatsfan laid out) has to be pretty attractive. I don't care about the owners' wallets, only that saving that money now for a team that's not winning a title sets them up better to spend on one that has a chance at contending in future years.

[fallguy]

Looks like the S&T Cam for Simons option is out the window. Not that it was really ever "in the window" (???) but, now it's really not.

Which adds another road closed to a Simons trade.

I think probably we're looking at a leaguewide re-appraisal of what is fair value for Cam Thomas type of players in the league (including Ant Simons). These guys who can average 20 pts feel like they're worth big money but they're learning their value is just not the same anymore.

Post up centers had the same thing happen to them ten years ago, when Roy Hibbert and Tomofey Mosgov rapidly went from earning 8 figures to completly out of the NBA. Even Brook Lopez, before his 3pt shot was bonafide, was signing for a league minimum just to stay in the league.

This is the revaluation of smallish scoring guards.

Hmm. Maybe.

Let me ask you a question before I respond. Why were the Hibberts/Mosgovs of the world run out of the league?

[redslastlaugh]

I think probably we're looking at a leaguewide re-appraisal of what is fair value for Cam Thomas type of players in the league (including Ant Simons). These guys who can average 20 pts feel like they're worth big money but they're learning their value is just not the same anymore.

Post up centers had the same thing happen to them ten years ago, when Roy Hibbert and Tomofey Mosgov rapidly went from earning 8 figures to completly out of the NBA. Even Brook Lopez, before his 3pt shot was bonafide, was signing for a league minimum just to stay in the league.

This is the revaluation of smallish scoring guards.

Hmm. Maybe.

Let me ask you a question before I respond. Why were the Hibberts/Mosgovs of the world run out of the league?

A complete answer to your question would take many factors into account, but basically the value of the post up fell relative to the value of the 3pt shot, plus the ability to guard the floor, and those type of big men werent netting out positive value in their minutes anymore.

We are maybe seeing that with Cam Thomas types, where Cam thinks he's gonna average 25 this year and that should be max contract numbers. But the ppg average is there sure, but there is no net positive impact. Maybe Simons (maybe not, I don't know) is the same. He's giving you 18-22pts per game but its just not valued, like execs are looking at his DARKO graph or whatever and are just like "this guy's fugazi"

[Fierce1]

I think probably we're looking at a leaguewide re-appraisal of what is fair value for Cam Thomas type of players in the league (including Ant Simons). These guys who can average 20 pts feel like they're worth big money but they're learning their value is just not the same anymore.

Post up centers had the same thing happen to them ten years ago, when Roy Hibbert and Tomofey Mosgov rapidly went from earning 8 figures to completly out of the NBA. Even Brook Lopez, before his 3pt shot was bonafide, was signing for a league minimum just to stay in the league.

This is the revaluation of smallish scoring guards.

Yeah, seems it's headed in that direction for small scoring guards.

That's why since the Cs got Simons and there were rumors that the Cs were flipping him, I think the best thing to do is increase his trade value by letting him play until December, January, or February.

Right now it's really looking like there is no market for Simons.

So why force a trade that will only result in the Cs giving up a pick or picks just to get rid of Simons?

I don't believe in tanking right from the start.
Cs should play to win all the way up to the trade deadline.
If it's not looking good then go for a lottery pick after All-Star.

For that scenario to happen, the Cs will need to replace the missing 27 ppg from Tatum.
Simons can cover most of that 27 ppg.
That's why I believe keeping Simons for a few months is the way to go.

We've been down this road before, but I don't necessarily equate trading Simons to tanking. Removing him removes a lot of points - no argument there. But it also opens development time for Baylor, Walsh and Oogo.

I just don't see Simons' value swinging that dramatically by playing a few months here. But, it could happen if all the stars align with his effort and a contender needing scoring at the deadline. If there's really no deals without paying a pick now that ducks the tax (or brings back a long term asset), then that's pretty much the option left.

I do think you can get some of the garbage list of players I've thrown out before without using a pick - at least not a 1st. And saving $100M by ducking the tax (as hugepatsfan laid out) has to be pretty attractive. I don't care about the owners' wallets, only that saving that money now for a team that's not winning a title sets them up better to spend on one that has a chance at contending in future years.

In a few days we will know more as we've agreed in the past that Sep. 7 is the 2nd checkpoint for Simons.

[djFan71]

Yeah, seems it's headed in that direction for small scoring guards.

That's why since the Cs got Simons and there were rumors that the Cs were flipping him, I think the best thing to do is increase his trade value by letting him play until December, January, or February.

Right now it's really looking like there is no market for Simons.

So why force a trade that will only result in the Cs giving up a pick or picks just to get rid of Simons?

I don't believe in tanking right from the start.
Cs should play to win all the way up to the trade deadline.
If it's not looking good then go for a lottery pick after All-Star.

For that scenario to happen, the Cs will need to replace the missing 27 ppg from Tatum.
Simons can cover most of that 27 ppg.
That's why I believe keeping Simons for a few months is the way to go.

We've been down this road before, but I don't necessarily equate trading Simons to tanking. Removing him removes a lot of points - no argument there. But it also opens development time for Baylor, Walsh and Oogo.

I just don't see Simons' value swinging that dramatically by playing a few months here. But, it could happen if all the stars align with his effort and a contender needing scoring at the deadline. If there's really no deals without paying a pick now that ducks the tax (or brings back a long term asset), then that's pretty much the option left.

I do think you can get some of the garbage list of players I've thrown out before without using a pick - at least not a 1st. And saving $100M by ducking the tax (as hugepatsfan laid out) has to be pretty attractive. I don't care about the owners' wallets, only that saving that money now for a team that's not winning a title sets them up better to spend on one that has a chance at contending in future years.

In a few days we will know more as we've agreed in the past that Sep. 7 is the 2nd checkpoint for Simons.

Sept 7th-ish.

[Larry_Russell]

t minus 2 days until Simons is no longer a celtic.

I also believe that Queta's play recently impacted the Simons choices for Brad (I hope he has options at least)

If Queta played like **** we would 100% HAVE to target a center exclusively, seeing he should be somewhat serviceable, then a big forward is probably the target

[brackdan70]

t minus 2 days until Simons is no longer a celtic.

I also believe that Queta's play recently impacted the Simons choices for Brad (I hope he has options at least)

If Queta played like **** we would 100% HAVE to target a center exclusively, seeing he should be somewhat serviceable, then a big forward is probably the target

I’d be surprised a bit if he is traded in two days. I expect if he does get traded, it will be closer to the deadline. There will likely be more options then as pretenders are looking to shed long term money, and contenders might be looking for a scorer. There will undoubtedly be injuries and teams will need to make some moves. Right now there just is t much urgency to do anything.

[Hal14]

t minus 2 days until Simons is no longer a celtic.

I also believe that Queta's play recently impacted the Simons choices for Brad (I hope he has options at least)

If Queta played like **** we would 100% HAVE to target a center exclusively, seeing he should be somewhat serviceable, then a big forward is probably the target

I’d be surprised a bit if he is traded in two days. I expect if he does get traded, it will be closer to the deadline. There will likely be more options then as pretenders are looking to shed long term money, and contenders might be looking for a scorer. There will undoubtedly be injuries and teams will need to make some moves. Right now there just is t much urgency to do anything.

Yup..historically very few trades happen in September. By this time of year, teams typically have their rosters pretty much set in stone and it's just a matter of a few exhibit 10 signings trickling in and between now and training camp.