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Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2

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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#361 » by claycarver » Sat Apr 18, 2020 12:23 am

Gant wrote:Where I fear real damage is in places like Africa, Bangladesh, and other poor regions where starvation might become a terrible issue.


I have a friend heavily involved in work in the DR and he seems confident that the shutdown is going to be devastating. They do things things like shoes for kids to protect them from parasites...stuff totally unrelated the virus. With our economy shut down, he expects a lot of that support to dry up.

I'm not suggesting that we prematurely re-open the economy, but there are life and death consequences to this shutdown.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#362 » by Parliament10 » Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:15 am

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2% isn't too bad if true, but still kinda high. That means 98% retest negative.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#363 » by Parliament10 » Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:06 am

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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#364 » by Mr_Mojo_Risin » Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:23 am

reload141 wrote:
Gant wrote:Sweden has not locked down like other countries, including their neighbors. Now the results are coming in.

Image

Graph shows Sweden’s coronavirus death toll rapidly increasing compared to other countries

Prime minister opts against strict lockdown in contrast to neighbours



Alarming data has shown Sweden’s approach to containing coronavirus has led to a far greater number of fatalities than their Nordic neighbours.

As a result of the spiralling numbers, the country's prime minister, Stefan Lofven, has received criticism for his government’s light-touch strategy to contain Covid-19.

There have been 13,216 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Sweden, a country of just over 10 million, with 1,400 deaths as of Friday afternoon, according to Johns Hopkins University.

With the total number of death exceeding the sum of their neighbours combined: Denmark (321), Norway (152) and Finland (75).

While Sweden’s total fatalities per-million (118) is also concerning when compared to their neighbours: Denmark has suffered 55 deaths per million, while Finland’s rate is just 13 - with both nations implementing strict early lockdowns in an effort to limit the spread of the pathogen.

In fact, their per-million total is considerably higher than Germany (42), though lower than the UK (182) and significantly lower than both Italy (349) and Spain (399).

“If you compare to the closest comparable countries, Norway, Denmark and Germany, we’re doing worse,” Dr Olle Häggström, a professor in Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Gothenburg, told The Independent.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-deaths-lockdown-social-distancing-denmark-finland-norway-a9470771.html?utm_source=reddit.com


I know what Sweden is doing is against the grain but in 2 years when all the deaths from corona and suicide (due to loss of business and unable to support family, domestic violence deaths because of lockdown etc) are added up vs other countries and how they fair as a country after compared to everyone else.

They will either come out of this looking incredibly stupid or the only country who truly "survived" this....

In Australia they are talking about everyone having a mandatory app to track your location, seems absolutely ridiculous and invades our privacy hopefully they realise that as people are TOTALLY against it... except my wife who doesn't really leave home unless to drop off and pick up kids and gym, shop etc haha! But she's Russian so maybe she's used to this sort of thing?

It will be interesting to see, but it's a huge gamble, primarily because there is still so much we don't know about the virus yet, including immunity. But you're right, the results won't be known in until a couple of years from now. Their mortality numbers might be up right now, but it could also be representative of the sheer number of people who have it, probably far more than known. The numbers of neighbouring countries might reach the same level over a longer time while having a bigger impact on society in general from longer shutdowns.

People's phones are already tracking data, but if there wasn't an alternate interest aside from COVID-19 in getting it, they would be implementing the app differently. Like storing location data only on the device and it requires the owner to agree to sharing it if they test positive. That would still enable contact tracing without the government collecting data they don't need. So I too am concerned about the number of laws and changes governments are trying to sneak in while they can.

There does need to be a balance though. They are saying we will be testing for COVID-19 in sewerage plants to identify cluster suburbs earlier (as cases can be found positive from faeces 2 to 3 days prior showing symptoms, see https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-17/australia-to-test-sewage-for-coronairus-as-testing-net-widens/12156858). That kind of method has my approval as they will know the suburbs to target testing without knowing specific person data. Our others measures here are starting to look successful and I'm hoping we might be able to slowly move out of this while keeping the borders closed.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#365 » by Gant » Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:48 pm

We Are Probably Only One-Tenth of the Way Through This Pandemic
By David Wallace-Wells

...getting out of the lockdown — and out of your shelter-in-place bunker — is not the beginning of the end of the pandemic. It is only the end of the beginning — the very brief beginning of what seems likely to be an epically long saga of disease, fear, and uncertainty.

There are, practically speaking, three paths out of the coronavirus crisis, to a way of life that resembles the one interrupted by COVID-19. The first is a vaccine. The second is effective treatment for the sick — not just effective at the margin, but so effective that catching the disease becomes a considerably less worrisome prospect for even those with comorbidities. The third is through herd immunity, when enough of the population has acquired COVID-19 antibodies that even with a return to “normal” life, there wouldn’t be enough opportunities for disease transmission for the virus to continue circulating through the population.

snip

...flattening the curve to limit the burden on hospitals and health-care workers, we have slowed, rather than accelerated, the exponential spread — that is why the charts of new cases, new hospitalizations, and deaths are all looking relatively encouraging lately. This is, inarguably, a good thing — it has allowed us to avoid the enormous amount of suffering that would have come about if our health-care capacity was breached, with health-care workers needing to triage their equipment and attention and simply abandon some patients to die without proper care, as they had to in Italy.

But while we seem to have avoided that tragedy, and that horror, enough to peek forward and see the possibility of life after quarantine, that isn’t the same as saying we are on the other side of this. In all likelihood, we have a very, very long way to go. On April 14, in the journal Science, Harvard researchers suggested the epidemic could last through 2022 — not just into the fall, and the election, but all the way into the midterms.



https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/we-are-probably-only-a-tenth-of-the-way-through-the-pandemic.html?utm_source=digg
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#366 » by zoyathedestroya » Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:54 pm

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#367 » by Gant » Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:01 pm

zoyathedestroya wrote:
Read on Twitter


There's a second contagion that's been spreading across the nation for a lot longer than Covid-19. It's this selfish, whining, hateful plague of stupidity that goes against everything a healthy and wise society needs to function.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#368 » by Parliament10 » Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:02 pm

zoyathedestroya wrote:
Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter



See. These people need to be "restrained".
If they're going to intentionally spread the virus, then lock them up.
"You have to put the work in.
Nothing is given."

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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#369 » by Parasite » Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:42 pm

What an absolute joke. There was a study that just came out of Stanford University that shows that the virus is 50-85 times more widespread than thought previously. Meaning that the true mortality rate is lower than .2%. In other words, the flu. Yes. The flu. And we have FASCISTS in this thread calling for the abolition of the First Amendment over it. People’s true colors really coming out. Absolutely sickening.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#370 » by SuperDeluxe » Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:17 pm

Parasite wrote:What an absolute joke. There was a study that just came out of Stanford University that shows that the virus is 50-85 times more widespread than thought previously. Meaning that the true mortality rate is lower than .2%. In other words, the flu. Yes. The flu. And we have FASCISTS in this thread calling for the abolition of the First Amendment over it. People’s true colors really coming out. Absolutely sickening.

You seem to be a well-informed person. Can you share the link to where your flu stats are coming from? Do you mind telling us when was the last time that the flu killed 155,000 people worldwide in a span of three months?

What's your opinion on what happened in Italy and Spain, where people have been dying left and right? And your thoughts on the differences between the vaccines/treatment for the flu and those for this coronavirus?

If it's not too much to ask, can you post a link to any post on this thread calling for the abolition of the First Amendment?
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#371 » by zoyathedestroya » Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:34 pm

Estimated deaths in flu season 2018-19, USA: 34,157
Reported covid-19 deaths in past 50 days, USA: 37,889 and counting

The second figure is with intervention and preventative measures in place, however inadequate and delayed they might have been.

THIS. IS. NOT. THE. COMMON. FLU. For the life of me, I still can't fathom how anyone with a brain can't treat this seriously.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#372 » by KGboss » Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:47 pm

Parliament10 wrote:
zoyathedestroya wrote:
Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter



See. These people need to be "restrained".
If they're going to intentionally spread the virus, then lock them up.
I say let nature run its course. Darwin was right.

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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#373 » by zoyathedestroya » Sat Apr 18, 2020 8:24 pm

Perfect.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#374 » by canman1971 » Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:00 pm

WTF is wrong with the human race? Or at least in this country? I am one of those who at the onset of this was like, "oh, I'm sure it's not that big of a deal, at least around me." Even my wife, who is a nurse, felt the same, however that was over a month ago and even the one time I go out I wear a mask; I'm fast; and I get my ass back home. Am I going stir crazy? You bet. However, from what I have read it's much better than getting this disgusting virus, which is not going away due to these disgusting people. I don't understand what people don't get. Newsflash: This has NEVER happened in the modern era. Stay home, be safe and if you have to go out, be smart. Pretty freaking simple. Yet these morons can't even do that.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#375 » by claycarver » Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:00 pm

zoyathedestroya wrote:Estimated deaths in flu season 2018-19, USA: 34,157
Reported covid-19 deaths in past 50 days, USA: 37,889 and counting

The second figure is with intervention and preventative measures in place, however inadequate and delayed they might have been.

THIS. IS. NOT. THE. COMMON. FLU. For the life of me, I still can't fathom how anyone with a brain can't treat this seriously.


It is not the common flu, it is much worse. But the 2017-2018 flu season killed over 60,000 people. There's a wide range for deaths in any given flu season.

Actually, that makes me wonder what flu deaths will look like this season. Does anyone know if flu deaths have been uncommonly low? It would make sense to me if vulnerable people who would otherwise have died from the flu were overcome by the coronavirus instead.

Edit: As and aside, I am loving all this free time to get stuff done. Just finished building out new interior doors and this house is looking pretty sweet. Next week, I start on the kitchen :)
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#376 » by Romeiro Celtic » Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:14 pm

Hey guys, how are you all doing there? Hope everything's alright with you and your families. Please stay safe at home, don't forget about that. I'd like to know how y'all are doing mentally, if you need anything like a talk, to say anything you've been dealing these past few weeks, feel free to PM me or quote this post. I've finished thursday a course to deal with mental health struggles during the quarantine through conversations and exercises. I know there's a lot of people out there not feeling ok with all of this we're living right now and I want to tell you that you can have someone to rely on, even if we don't know each other.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#377 » by floyd » Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:14 pm

claycarver wrote:
zoyathedestroya wrote:Estimated deaths in flu season 2018-19, USA: 34,157
Reported covid-19 deaths in past 50 days, USA: 37,889 and counting

The second figure is with intervention and preventative measures in place, however inadequate and delayed they might have been.

THIS. IS. NOT. THE. COMMON. FLU. For the life of me, I still can't fathom how anyone with a brain can't treat this seriously.


It is not the common flu, it is much worse. But the 2017-2018 flu season killed over 60,000 people. There's a wide range for deaths in any given flu season.

Actually, that makes me wonder what flu deaths will look like this season. Does anyone know if flu deaths have been uncommonly low? It would make sense to me if vulnerable people who would otherwise have died from the flu were overcome by the coronavirus instead.

Edit: As and aside, I am loving all this free time to get stuff done. Just finished building out new interior doors and this house is looking pretty sweet. Next week, I start on the kitchen :)


So COVID will have comparable deaths to a bad flu season (ignoring a likely second wave of the infection) WHILE taking extreme measures to reduce the spread of infection.

Anyone that says it’s the same thing as the flu is not a rational person worth discussing it then. The evidence is clear it’s not the same.

Hopefully it’s true mortality (which is still hard to measure) is comparable to the flu and therefore once we have a vaccine, treatments, and herd immunity they’ll be comparable.

But right now they sure as **** are not.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#378 » by Parliament10 » Sun Apr 19, 2020 12:23 am

Read on Twitter




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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#379 » by Captain_Caveman » Sun Apr 19, 2020 12:34 am

Parasite wrote:What an absolute joke. There was a study that just came out of Stanford University that shows that the virus is 50-85 times more widespread than thought previously. Meaning that the true mortality rate is lower than .2%. In other words, the flu. Yes. The flu. And we have FASCISTS in this thread calling for the abolition of the First Amendment over it. People’s true colors really coming out. Absolutely sickening.


Your argument defeats itself. Even if it *were* only as deadly as the flu, it is far more contagious. Meaning that more people will get it. Meaning that more health care facilities will be more overloaded without social distancing measures that flatten the curve. Which would push the mortality rate far higher than 0.2%. Which would be a lot of deaths in a country of 328 million people, even if only 30-40% of us ended up contracting the virus.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#380 » by Bad-Thoma » Sun Apr 19, 2020 1:15 am

Gant wrote:
zoyathedestroya wrote:
Read on Twitter


There's a second contagion that's been spreading across the nation for a lot longer than Covid-19. It's this selfish, whining, hateful plague of stupidity that goes against everything a healthy and wise society needs to function.


I've long said we have a pandemic of stupidity in this country

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