threrf23 wrote:Hal14 wrote:Seems like a 50/50 on whether Springer lasts to 16. It's crazy to me that some are placing him in the 25-29 range in mocks when he is arguably just as good, if not better than Suggs, who's a consensus top 4 pick.
I'm definitely with you on Springer looking like a better prospect than Keon Johnson. But I think you are sleeping on Suggs. Not only was Suggs statistically better almost across the board (more assists, more rebounds, more steals, more threes, better FG% inside the arc)...but those stats don't even really tell the story here. Suggs is a legit PG who has garnered comps ranging from Brandon Roy to Jason Kidd, and was composed as **** in the clutch in the Final Four. As a freshman, was the starting PG and possibly the best player on a team that went undefeated until the championship game. In the final four he looked almost like a four year starter leading his younger teammates, when the opposite was the case.
Springer is younger and maybe underrated, but he's a combo guard that has garnered Jerryd Bayless and Marcus Smart comps from nbadraft.net...and I don't get the sense he is Marcus Smart.
1) For assists, assist % is a more accurate stat than assists per game. Springer's assist % was 24.8, compared to 23.7 for Suggs
2) Suggs has a slight edge in steals % but overall when I look at the film, Springer is just as good defensively with his positioning, taking charges, tenacity, ability to defend the PnR, etc.
3) Suggs has a slight edge in rebounding %
4) Suggs led his team to a better season, but it's hard to know for sure if that's just because he had a better supporting cast. Also, Suggs is 1 year and 3 months older than Springer so that is likely a factor for any slight edge Suggs has, and it means Springer being younger has more room to develop
5) I don't buy Suggs being a pure PG and Springer being a combo guard. I see the film and they both have very similar games. They're both PGs who can hurt you with both their scoring and their passing. Just like Harden, Irving, Lillard, Curry, Trae Young, Doncic, Westbrook. You look around at the top PGs in the league and they are dual threats - they score and they pass. In the video I saw, Springer made a ton of awesome, high level passes, and he is the primary ball handler, the facilitator running the offense for Tennessee. Springer has a higher assist % than Suggs and Springer took less shot attempts per 40 minutes than Suggs too.
6) as for comparing both of them to NBA players, I don't put much stock in that. That's nice that someone compares Suggs to Kidd but they compare Springer to Bayless - that just shows how underrated Springer is.
7) I'm not willing to just flat out say Springer is the better prospect than Suggs. But from what I've seen, you could argue he's just as good. And if you get a guy with the 16th pick who's just as good as the guy who gets taken with the 3rd pick, that's a steal.
8) As far as comparing Springer to Smart, well first off, Smart was the 6th pick in the draft. So if Springer is that good, again, that makes him a steal with the 16th pick. Smart very good prospect coming out of college. In terms of comparing the 2 of them, Springer is 1 inch taller, MUCH quicker, MUCH better ball handling, MUCH better shooter (from mid range and from 3), just as good of a passer, just as athletic, just as good on D and Springer with more of a PG's game, where Smart is better suited for SG..
The more I read up on these guys and watch footage, I think after the consensus top 5 (Cunningham, Mobley, Suggs, Green, Kuminga), I'd probably rank Springer 6th, Mitchell 7th and Sengun 8th. If 1 of those 3 guys is still available at 16, it would be hard to pass up.
I've come to realize that there's many posters on RealGM who are actually more knowledgeable on the game of basketball than many so called experts/analysts who work for media outlets. One of the posters in the NBA mock draft forum actually has Springer ranked 7th and Suggs ranked 21st, FWIW
