The Comedian wrote:rd26 wrote:MagicBagley18 wrote:Let’s not waste much time on this.....just explain to me why the team falls off a cliff when Tatum sits by virtually every metric? Why doesn’t brown make a difference?
For one thing, Tatum plays almost every minute of every game with the bench unit.
Subs out at 7min Q1, back in at 2min Q1.
Your best player against bench units should be positive. Likewise, units minus your best player vs starters should struggle.
Of course the other theory is Tatum is top 5, Brown outside the top 40.
Truth lies in between imo
There’s been articles that state this, but Tatum’s substitution pattern mirrors most teams top players. It’s the 5/6 minute mark though, not the 7. Saying every minute of every game he plays is against bench units is INCREDIBLY inaccurate, c’mon lol. I posted the most used lineups with him at the bottom of this post, just to show how heavy you went with the hyperbole. Then he comes back in at the end of the first, or to start the second quarter. Almost always, the other teams have the same amount of starters in at the start of the second quarter as they do the the middle-end of the first. The days of 3-4 starters playing the whole first quarter are long gone.
No matter how you dig into the numbers, it shows the same thing, Tatum as the constant that buoys the team. He plays with the starters, we destroy teams. He plays with the bench, we destroy teams. This next part isn’t directed at you, just an in general statement. This is per cleaning the glass, which filters out garbage time.
Tatum in/Jaylen out: +9.8 net rating. The two most frequent lineups in these scenarios featured two other starters, so wasn’t just a case of him playing with bench units.
Our teams net rating with the five starters in, +24.3 over 907 possessions.
Our teams net rating with Tatum in, without the other 4 starters: +20, over 439 possessions.
Tatum in without the other starters, also without Kanter/Schroder: +29.1 over 179 possessions.
Jaylen in, without Tatum: 0.0 net rating, over 1522 possessions.
In the playoffs, where the starters played huge minutes.
Tatum in/Jaylen out: +3.3 over 384 possessions.
Jaylen in/Tatum out: -8.7 over 249 possessions.
Jaylen has shown he can be the second scorer on a title contender, obviously lol. Anyone saying otherwise has an agenda, or is stubborn. But we also have more than enough evidence that Jaylen isn’t the type of player who can carry lineups, he doesn’t put enough pressure on the defense.
As for the top 5 versus top 40 thing, pretty much every advanced stat there is has Tatum top 8. They are more split on Jaylen, is anywhere between 20-60ish. To be fair, I think the lower ones clearly undersell Jaylen. But there’s no real need to look into why the team always falls off a cliff without Tatum, as teams pretty much always fall off a cliff when players on his level sit.
Well god damnnnn.....
