The Trade Thread, 2016-17 (2.0)

[Gomes3PC]

http://nba.nbcsports.com/2016/11/29/report-nerlens-noel-prefers-76ers-trade-him/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Nothing shocking, but clear Noel wants out and he has zero desire to re-sign in Philly. He's an RFA so not so simple as walking away for him, but hard to see why PHI would want to keep him if he's so eager to leave, especially in conjunction with the big man logjam they have.

[165bows]

So what is the hierarchy of likely traded players here? The team is too small in the back court (the article discusses the Spurs trade of George Hill for K. Leonard, motivated by the inability to play Parker/Hill/Ginobili together consistently), referencing the following:

Their backcourt rotation features the abundantly talented — but small — Isaiah Thomas (5-foot-9), Avery Bradley (6-2) and Terry Rozier (6-2), and while Marcus Smart (6-4) is doing a much better job running an offense, he’s often being called upon to guard small forwards and even power forwards.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2016/11/bulpett_reaching_next_level_no_small_feat_for_celtics

Explains the offseason trade push for Butler, Hayward and Middleton - Danny wants some size on the perimeter.

Problem is Rozier and Smart aren't exactly hot trade commodities. This is really an IT or AB debate if we're talking about a big time size upgrade on the perimeter.

I'm more partial to trading IT, as sacrilegious as that may be around here. I think AB's easier to work with as a long-term fixture and thus more likely to be worth the 2018 payday. And IT's size issue are the most problematic by far of any of our perimeter players.

I wonder if we could get Washington to pick up the phone on an IT for Wall based swap. Same kind of thinking as the Marbury/Kidd swap.

Yeah good point on that first note. Kind of forgot about that particular group.

Half of the quotes from the article make me think this is mostly about Rozier (drafting for fit v. need, the team playing well increasing individual draft stock), but then the other bits about the team looking very different when it gets to contention point more towards Bradley/Thomas or possibly Crowder.

One other thought I had is that the best comp for Rozier is Bradley. That wasn't clear to me before this season. Rozier's shown he's not a good PG (weak ball handler, can't advance the ball vs pressure), has the size to guard PGs and smaller SGs, and looks like a better spot up shooter than on-ball player. That's what led to thinking that Bradley could be a guy on the way out, if they think they have a cheap replacement in-house. They are good without AB defensively, but until this year have actually needed Bradley's offense.

Targets though seem clearly the obvious highest-end players (regardless of contract), then a second group of guys that are productive yet still on their rookie deals so the team can also utilize another shot at FA.

[165bows]

Is Bradley/Olynyk for Aaron Gordon/Jodie Meeks crazy in this light? Would save the team ~11M of cap space next year, including KO's cap hold. They would then be free to pursue a max FA next summer.

Smitty what do you think of this?

It's crazy because it does not move the needle at all. You can argue it makes the Celtics worst.

Sure for this year.

The solution though is the deal that makes this team the most out of the combination of better, younger and cheaper. Could add better balanced to that list as well.

The issue is this a second or third round type of team right now depending on the year and is going to cost $120M a year and a half from now even without any trade/FA additions.

[Slartibartfast]

So what is the hierarchy of likely traded players here? The team is too small in the back court (the article discusses the Spurs trade of George Hill for K. Leonard, motivated by the inability to play Parker/Hill/Ginobili together consistently), referencing the following:



http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2016/11/bulpett_reaching_next_level_no_small_feat_for_celtics

Explains the offseason trade push for Butler, Hayward and Middleton - Danny wants some size on the perimeter.

Problem is Rozier and Smart aren't exactly hot trade commodities. This is really an IT or AB debate if we're talking about a big time size upgrade on the perimeter.

I'm more partial to trading IT, as sacrilegious as that may be around here. I think AB's easier to work with as a long-term fixture and thus more likely to be worth the 2018 payday. And IT's size issue are the most problematic by far of any of our perimeter players.

I wonder if we could get Washington to pick up the phone on an IT for Wall based swap. Same kind of thinking as the Marbury/Kidd swap.

Yeah good point on that first note. Kind of forgot about that particular group.

Half of the quotes from the article make me think this is mostly about Rozier (drafting for fit v. need, the team playing well increasing individual draft stock), but then the other bits about the team looking very different when it gets to contention point more towards Bradley/Thomas or possibly Crowder.

One other thought I had is that the best comp for Rozier is Bradley. That wasn't clear to me before this season. Rozier's shown he's not a good PG (weak ball handler, can't advance the ball vs pressure), has the size to guard PGs and smaller SGs, and looks like a better spot up shooter than on-ball player. That's what led to thinking that Bradley could be a guy on the way out, if they think they have a cheap replacement in-house. They are good without AB defensively, but until this year have actually needed Bradley's offense.

Targets though seem clearly the obvious highest-end players (regardless of contract), then a second group of guys that are productive yet still on their rookie deals so the team can also utilize another shot at FA.

AB is certainly playing his way into much better trade scenarios, but Rozier isn't ready to take his role if we're contending.

If we trade AB I would think Rozier would still be kept in his current 20mpg role and it would be the incoming player replacing AB. So in that sense I don't think in-house replacement is all that relevant.

[Curmudgeon]

With Conley out indefinitely (some are guessing 8 weeks) maybe it's time to investigate Z-bo.

[165bows]

With Conley out indefinitely (some are guessing 8 weeks) maybe it's time to investigate Z-bo.

Love the idea of ZBo on this team if he can be had for a reasonable price.

[cl2117]

With Conley out indefinitely (some are guessing 8 weeks) maybe it's time to investigate Z-bo.

Love the idea of ZBo on this team if he can be had for a reasonable price.

The problem with getting ZBo is that he is such a big part of that grit 'n grind culture that unless they are getting great value/giving up on this year, they're not going to want to trade him.

Given age/contract I wouldn't give up too much more for ZBo than I would for Bogut, so there goes value. And with the West being top-heavy they'll fight for an 8th seed at worst despite the Conley injury.

They don't have a 2017 first rounder though. Maybe if they take a step back and realize at 35 he's a part of the past rather than the future they'd be interested in dealing him to fill that hole (obviously a third team needed to supply the first).

[KGboss]

With Conley out indefinitely (some are guessing 8 weeks) maybe it's time to investigate Z-bo.

Love the idea of ZBo on this team if he can be had for a reasonable price.

Another old big. He will cost too much to make it worth while.

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app

[cellar-door]

With Conley out indefinitely (some are guessing 8 weeks) maybe it's time to investigate Z-bo.

Can't imagine they'll move him. They don't own their own pick this year (unless it's top 5) so they have no real incentive to tank. My guess is they bring in a vet (Jack?) to try and hold the fort while Conley is out. The bottom of the West is weak, so they still probably have to feel like they are a playoff team.

[chrisab123]

With Conley out indefinitely (some are guessing 8 weeks) maybe it's time to investigate Z-bo.

Can't imagine they'll move him. They don't own their own pick this year (unless it's top 5) so they have no real incentive to tank. My guess is they bring in a vet (Jack?) to try and hold the fort while Conley is out. The bottom of the West is weak, so they still probably have to feel like they are a playoff team.

They will lose the pick anyways. Z-Bo is a FA this coming season so he's a name to watch. I think him coming to Boston combined with another big whether its Bogut Noel or someone else would make this team an absolute lock for the ECF. I doubt very much that Z-Bo in his mid 30's costs more than the Clippers pick and filler. The Grizz are stock piled at the 4 with young bigs that could step in. That being said I think Boston's best chance at a deal is probably Rozier for Noel.

[KGboss]

Noel demanding a trade is huge when you think about it. Sixers have to move him and i think they do it for pennies at this point. Ainge needs to be working those phones.

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app

[truth18]

Noel demanding a trade is huge when you think about it. Sixers have to move him and i think they do it for pennies at this point. Ainge needs to be working those phones.

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app

It's BC. We can probably get Noel for Mickey and a Boston made cheesesteak.

[CelticsPride18]

The problem with Noel is his impeding free agency. Do we really want to tied up 50M for a Noel/Horford frontcourt with IT/Bradley/Smart being FA next season. This is not a knock on Horford but if we are going to pay 50M for our frontcourt it should be for a player like Griffin or Cousins not Noel.

[Green89]

The problem with Noel is his impeding free agency. Do we really want to tied up 50M for a Noel/Horford frontcourt with IT/Bradley/Smart being FA next season. This is not a knock on Horford but if we are going to pay 50M for our frontcourt it should be for a player like Griffin or Cousins not Noel.

Why on earth do people keep believing Noel is going to get $20+ mil per year?? He's not so just stop already. Guy's never even been a consistent player in the league yet and he's going to command all star money? Where are we getting this nonsense from? It's like someone exaggerated greatly in one post, and it snowballed into everyone else 's thinking.

[cellar-door]

The problem with Noel is his impeding free agency. Do we really want to tied up 50M for a Noel/Horford frontcourt with IT/Bradley/Smart being FA next season. This is not a knock on Horford but if we are going to pay 50M for our frontcourt it should be for a player like Griffin or Cousins not Noel.

Why on earth do people keep believing Noel is going to get $20+ mil per year?? He's not so just stop already. Guy's never even been a consistent player in the league yet and he's going to command all star money? Where are we getting this nonsense from? It's like someone exaggerated greatly in one post, and it snowballed into everyone else 's thinking.

I don't know if he'll get 20 per, but Mahinmi got 4/64, so did Mozgov, Biyombo got 4/72. There's a good case Noel is worth more than all 3. He's young, high upside and his defensive numbers at C are pretty spectacular. It's not at all crazy to think he gets a huge offer.

[Homerclease]

The problem with Noel is his impeding free agency. Do we really want to tied up 50M for a Noel/Horford frontcourt with IT/Bradley/Smart being FA next season. This is not a knock on Horford but if we are going to pay 50M for our frontcourt it should be for a player like Griffin or Cousins not Noel.

Why on earth do people keep believing Noel is going to get $20+ mil per year?? He's not so just stop already. Guy's never even been a consistent player in the league yet and he's going to command all star money? Where are we getting this nonsense from? It's like someone exaggerated greatly in one post, and it snowballed into everyone else 's thinking.

Look what career journeymen like Mozgov and Turner got, Noel getting a similar if not bigger deal is more than plausible given his age and skill set

[Ed Pinkney]

The problem with Noel is his impeding free agency. Do we really want to tied up 50M for a Noel/Horford frontcourt with IT/Bradley/Smart being FA next season. This is not a knock on Horford but if we are going to pay 50M for our frontcourt it should be for a player like Griffin or Cousins not Noel.

Why on earth do people keep believing Noel is going to get $20+ mil per year?? He's not so just stop already. Guy's never even been a consistent player in the league yet and he's going to command all star money? Where are we getting this nonsense from? It's like someone exaggerated greatly in one post, and it snowballed into everyone else 's thinking.

I don't know if he'll get 20 per, but Mahinmi got 4/64, so did Mozgov, Biyombo got 4/72. There's a good case Noel is worth more than all 3. He's young, high upside and his defensive numbers at C are pretty spectacular. It's not at all crazy to think he gets a huge offer.

The thing about trading for Noel sooner rather than later is you get more than half a season to evaluate his worth. If the Celtics traded for him and start winning 80% of their games, get to 55 wins and win a playoff series or four, then you shouldn't worry too much about paying him as he would obviously be worth it (especially based on those Mozgov/Biyombo contracts). His RFA status also means if another team throws a big but not ridiculous offer you can match.

If he doesn't do a whole lot for the team, or remains injury prone, then his value would probably be lowered and you can worry less about him walking.

The big issue comes down to what the Celtics would give up to get him. I would have zero problems using some sort of package based around Rozier/Young/Jerebko/Zeller/Olynyk/Mickey/Green/Jackson and and non-Nets firsts.

[rmal8852]

I have a real hard time seeing IT traded any time soon (read this year).

Yah, I get all the stuff about his defense, size and contract in '18, BUT:

I don't see IT being traded unless it's for a top 5-10 player.

IT, like it or not, is the face of this franchise.

Horford came here to play with him.

Trading IT now would be some real bad juju.

[reload141]

I might get smashed for suggesting this but what about bringing in Wall & Cousins? If it's even possible? I know the assets we would have to give up would be large but if you give up say IT, Brown, KO, Johnson, both BRK picks the Memphis pick and one of our own is that enough?
reuniting Wall & Cousins here would be sick. Definetly would give Cleveland a real good series.

Wall
Bradley
Crowder
Horford
Cousins

[Homerclease]

The way I see it is they have seven men. Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Horford, Smart, Brown and Rozier. Everyone else on the current roster is cannon fodder to me. They have the two nets picks and Zizic and cap room to add onto those 7 men. They need to score again in free agency with a Griffin, Hayward or Noah type. If they whiff then a trade becomes much more desirable. They've been patient so far, now isn't the time for a rash move. Upgrade the front court in the offseason, add on growth from the young guys currently here and sprinkle in some luck and they may be onto something. The real factor is James needs to show signs of slowing down. At his current level of skill and Jordan treatment it's going to be very difficult to unseat him in the post season. Heck last years warriors couldn't even finish him and that's with steph, klay and Green