State of the Cap?

[shackles10]

Spoiler:

So from what I'm seeing, two of Bradley, Crowder, Smart & Olynyk have to go if we are to keep our pick & sign Hayward. In this case, I think keeping Kelly is a must as he's the only legitimate front court player & he's a big that fits Brad's offense like a glove.

So the decision needs to be made on a perimeter player. Bradley is the easiest choice as he's due for a major payday next offseason but he's also the best player of the three (and longest tenured, FWIW). I don't have any interest in getting less talented. He's also our starting SG and has proven his defensive versatility time and time again, especially in these playoffs guarding the likes of Butler, Wall, and last night, quietly did a great job on Irving.

With that, Smart becomes expendable. We'll have too many guys lobbying for minutes at the guard positions and he hasn't proven enough to not be the guy sent out. Crowder, sadly, will be out by default with Hayward signing and Brown in the wings as well.

Thomas / Rozier / Jackson
Bradley / Fultz
Hayward / Brown / Nader
Olynyk / Yabusele
Horford / Zizic

That's 12 guys, just under the 101 mil threshold (with Kelly's cap hold) so I think if we trade Crowder & Smart for future draft selections, we're in the clear. From there, I think we could use an exception on Amir Johnson if we wanted to bring him back for some front court depth. Sign a couple veteran minimum guys to fill out the roster & roll.

Given how much we play small in the playoffs, I would prefer to keep Crowder over Olynyk and include Hayward, Jaylen and Crowder in a rotation that takes time both at the SF and PF spot. Olynyk is such an inconsistent player and really has a tough time defensively against the best teams (see last night). One game in like five he will shoot it enough to make it worthwhile, but not sure I want to have that trade off and pay him $12 - 15 million a year. Having $50 million of our caps in bigs when league is going small and you can find cheap serviceable bigs probably doesn't make sense.

Bradley v. Smart is a much harder call for me. Bradley has been much much better in the playoffs and you fear that Smart is sometimes borderline unplayable if he can't hit his threes and doesn't have his defensive intensity at 110%. On the other hand, Smart will bring less in a trade (do other teams value what the Cs value in him? do they view him as a starting PG given his offensive limitations?), has more team control (as an RFA) and therefore will be signed to a more reasonable contract, won't get in the way of moving Fultz into the starting line up in 2 - 3 years, and matches up better with a "be good now and later" timeline. Also maybe (maybe!) he can start hitting 3p% since he is still young. The Celtics will have some serious luxury tax issues if they have Horford, IT, and Hayward on max contracts and Bradley on something like a $20 million contract. Not clear ownership would be thrilled about that. On the other hand, if I am Hayward, I don't sign with the Cs unless they are keeping Bradley, since clearly the best win-now line up is IT-AB-Hayward-Crowder-Horford. Anyway, really torn on that one. It would have been so much easier if Smart had just shot 30% from three point range this year, then I could at least sell the "he's becoming a better shooter" line.

Agreed in that if keeping Olynyk means giving up Crowder then good bye Kelly. I don't mean that as Kelly is worthless or truly looking to release him, even as frustrating as he is, but that I would prefer Crowder if the holds are the same and definitely prefer Crowder when Kelly signs for more than Crowder makes.

[djFan71]

Horford/Crowder/Zizic as our front line merely buttressed by a minimum contract power forward doesn't sound so appealing to me. I can easily say goodbye to Amir, Zeller, and Jerebko, but losing KO and not adding a starting calibre power forward could leave us more unbalanced than we are now. That's why Griffin sounds much more appealing to me than Hayward.

Kinda my feeling as well, though Griffin's injuries scare the heck out of me. I get that Hayward adds scoring and is available for "free" - even though that means dumping some current guys and/or restricting their minutes. But, adding Fultz as a creator to our current group of wings with Jaylen improving seems good enough. I'd rather address the bigs situation - esp. that tough, athletic can score\shoot\rebound\defend type of big. Griffin, I've come around on Milsap, as the UFA version. Green, Williams RFA giving up less cap space. Dieng\others as minor trade target, etc. PG13 trade helps get some size & scoring as well.

[Elrod is Back]

After July 1 a number of teams will have capspace when old contracts expire. New Orleans at that point could take Crowder or Bradley pretty easily w/o having to return salary to us.

If we want to do something before July 1, we are limited to teams like Minnesota and Philly.

I would love to be able to trade Avery or Crowder to Minny for the 7th overall pick. I'd toss Rozier into either deal. I ran the idea by the Minny RealGM board a couple of weeks ago and got a cold response to Avery, but a somewhat warmer response to Crowder. I guess Wiggins is seen as a weak defender at the 3 and someone better suited to the 2, at least defensively.

So maybe Crowder and Rozier for the 7th pick would appeal to Tom T. I'd even return their 2017 2nd rounder to them if necessary.

[ermocrate]

You simply don't sign hayward for 30 mill, that's nut...

[sarcasma]

Avery or Jae for Lauri Markennan??? would be perfect if we have to lose Kelly.

[threrf23]

Cap is projected at 101 mil, but I won't be surprised if it is actually around 105 mil.

Is it confirmed that Yabu comes over next season?

I wonder if KO would take a Celtics_History_Lesson discount and sign for the one year QO. We would still have his bird rights the following offseason.

[sarcasma]

Is Isaiah Thomas really a max guy? I'm not a hater but I don't know if I can swallow that.

Yes.

No, hes a $19 to $25 million a year player.

[Homerclease]

Is Isaiah Thomas really a max guy? I'm not a hater but I don't know if I can swallow that.

Yes.

No, hes a $19 to $25 million a year player.

Not this day and age. Role players get that type of money now. That's Biyombo money. IT is getting the max and he deserves it

[TheOGJabroni]

You simply don't sign hayward for 30 mill, that's nut...

Care to elaborate?

[TheOGJabroni]

Thomas / Rozier / Jackson
Bradley / Fultz / Nader
Hayward / Brown
Crowder / Yabusele
Horford / Zizic

That's a 12 man roster that's salary is just under 100 mil.

Some key points:

---Obviously adding Hayward. This is accounting for the max salary we can offer.

---Trading Smart (and any 2nd round picks we have this year that won't fit salary wise) for future draft considerations to avoid taking on additional salary this year.

---Zizic, Yabusele & Nader all fit in salary wise. We could see if Yabusele & Nader wanted to hold off another year but we'd have to use that extra money to sign two additional players; not sure if we'll find value better than our own guys there.

---Jackson's salary is on the books, half of it is guaranteed anyway so it seems wise to just fully guarantee the rest to avoid needing to sign an additional player on top of that to get us to 12, avoiding cap holds.

---I believe we can use the room exception on Amir (or another big if he does not accept it).

---That leaves us with two extra roster spots to fill with the veteran minimum (Green & Jerebko?)


Thomas / Rozier / Jackson
Bradley / Fultz / Nader
Hayward / Brown / Green
Crowder / Yabusele / Jerebko
Horford / Zizic / Johnson

[165bows]

So from what I'm seeing, two of Bradley, Crowder, Smart & Olynyk have to go if we are to keep our pick & sign Hayward. In this case, I think keeping Kelly is a must as he's the only legitimate front court player & he's a big that fits Brad's offense like a glove.

So the decision needs to be made on a perimeter player. Bradley is the easiest choice as he's due for a major payday next offseason but he's also the best player of the three (and longest tenured, FWIW). I don't have any interest in getting less talented. He's also our starting SG and has proven his defensive versatility time and time again, especially in these playoffs guarding the likes of Butler, Wall, and last night, quietly did a great job on Irving.

With that, Smart becomes expendable. We'll have too many guys lobbying for minutes at the guard positions and he hasn't proven enough to not be the guy sent out. Crowder, sadly, will be out by default with Hayward signing and Brown in the wings as well.

Thomas / Rozier / Jackson
Bradley / Fultz
Hayward / Brown / Nader
Olynyk / Yabusele
Horford / Zizic

That's 12 guys, just under the 101 mil threshold (with Kelly's cap hold) so I think if we trade Crowder & Smart for future draft selections, we're in the clear. From there, I think we could use an exception on Amir Johnson if we wanted to bring him back for some front court depth. Sign a couple veteran minimum guys to fill out the roster & roll.

Given how much we play small in the playoffs, I would prefer to keep Crowder over Olynyk and include Hayward, Jaylen and Crowder in a rotation that takes time both at the SF and PF spot. Olynyk is such an inconsistent player and really has a tough time defensively against the best teams (see last night). One game in like five he will shoot it enough to make it worthwhile, but not sure I want to have that trade off and pay him $12 - 15 million a year. Having $50 million of our caps in bigs when league is going small and you can find cheap serviceable bigs probably doesn't make sense.

Bradley v. Smart is a much harder call for me. Bradley has been much much better in the playoffs and you fear that Smart is sometimes borderline unplayable if he can't hit his threes and doesn't have his defensive intensity at 110%. On the other hand, Smart will bring less in a trade (do other teams value what the Cs value in him? do they view him as a starting PG given his offensive limitations?), has more team control (as an RFA) and therefore will be signed to a more reasonable contract, won't get in the way of moving Fultz into the starting line up in 2 - 3 years, and matches up better with a "be good now and later" timeline. Also maybe (maybe!) he can start hitting 3p% since he is still young. The Celtics will have some serious luxury tax issues if they have Horford, IT, and Hayward on max contracts and Bradley on something like a $20 million contract. Not clear ownership would be thrilled about that. On the other hand, if I am Hayward, I don't sign with the Cs unless they are keeping Bradley, since clearly the best win-now line up is IT-AB-Hayward-Crowder-Horford. Anyway, really torn on that one. It would have been so much easier if Smart had just shot 30% from three point range this year, then I could at least sell the "he's becoming a better shooter" line.

This and the quoted post are the big decisions this offseason. Assuming they can land Hayward that is.

[robdog_5]

I feel like the best move is to deal AB, he maybe the only guy we need to move. If it's Crowder, than Smart may have to go with him to get under the cap.

If you made a move for the Minny pick it's a 3.82 million dollar hold and the 120% rookie scale. So trading Avery would save just over 5 million. Meaning somebody else would be needing to go out if your adding Heyward at 30.3 million.

We need to cut 6-7 million without Yasbule and about 9.5-10 with him I think. Bradley out for no assets coming in (maybe 2018 first round pick), Minny still would be a good option as they may bet on improvement and only losing mid-lower round pick, would work in first scenario with no Yasbule. In 2nd scenario we would need to add a Rozier or possibly

[vct33]

I feel like the best move is to deal AB, he maybe the only guy we need to move. If it's Crowder, than Smart may have to go with him to get under the cap.

It's probably just me because AB is my favorite player but I wouldn't trade him for Crowder & Smart.

[robdog_5]

I feel like the best move is to deal AB, he maybe the only guy we need to move. If it's Crowder, than Smart may have to go with him to get under the cap.

It's probably just me because AB is my favorite player but I wouldn't trade him for Crowder & Smart.

I agree with that. I think you could deal both of those guys as well. I love Smart's toughness, and I love Crowder's deal for the long term, but I agree on the court AB IMO has more value than those guys. When you add both to the picture it's maybe closer

[Fencer reregistered]

Yes.

No, hes a $19 to $25 million a year player.

Not this day and age. Role players get that type of money now. That's Biyombo money. IT is getting the max and he deserves it

Thomas just made the All-NBA 2nd Team, and as of this past season he was still improving as a player. Of course he's a max salary guy.

That said, it might be in his interest to sign a max extension whenever the Cs offer it. And if they offer it soon, it won't last as long as a new contract signed in 2018 would. If his skills last a long time, then he won't necessarily lose any lifetime earnings from having his contract be shorter. But if something bad happens to him really soon, then he still will have locked in lifetime earnings in the $100 million range, which is probably a level that he regards as an acceptable worst-case scenario.

[Fencer reregistered]

Thomas / Rozier / Jackson
Bradley / Fultz / Nader
Hayward / Brown
Crowder / Yabusele
Horford / Zizic

That's a 12 man roster that's salary is just under 100 mil.

Some key points:

---Obviously adding Hayward. This is accounting for the max salary we can offer.

---Trading Smart (and any 2nd round picks we have this year that won't fit salary wise) for future draft considerations to avoid taking on additional salary this year.

---Zizic, Yabusele & Nader all fit in salary wise. We could see if Yabusele & Nader wanted to hold off another year but we'd have to use that extra money to sign two additional players; not sure if we'll find value better than our own guys there.

---Jackson's salary is on the books, half of it is guaranteed anyway so it seems wise to just fully guarantee the rest to avoid needing to sign an additional player on top of that to get us to 12, avoiding cap holds.

---I believe we can use the room exception on Amir (or another big if he does not accept it).

---That leaves us with two extra roster spots to fill with the veteran minimum (Green & Jerebko?)


Thomas / Rozier / Jackson
Bradley / Fultz / Nader
Hayward / Brown / Green
Crowder / Yabusele / Jerebko
Horford / Zizic / Johnson

I'd be cool with that. It's not the super-duper best conceivable scenario, but it's darned good. To get from there to a championship, we'd need:

-- Sufficiently good health luck.
-- Re-signing guys when the time comes.
-- Additional good luck among bigs, whether through Zizic blowing up or Brooklyn 18 or whatever.

Your idea is a little extreme in the lack of traditional centers, but so be it. Most championships in the NBA are won with the help of considerable amounts of innovation or other uniqueness, and a rather extreme commitment to small ball might be one part of that differentiation.

[Celts17Pride]

2 of Bradley, Rozier, Smart, Crowder and Olynyk are gone. It all depends on who Ainge wants to keep.

[TheOGJabroni]

Thomas / Rozier / Jackson
Bradley / Fultz / Nader
Hayward / Brown
Crowder / Yabusele
Horford / Zizic

That's a 12 man roster that's salary is just under 100 mil.

Some key points:

---Obviously adding Hayward. This is accounting for the max salary we can offer.

---Trading Smart (and any 2nd round picks we have this year that won't fit salary wise) for future draft considerations to avoid taking on additional salary this year.

---Zizic, Yabusele & Nader all fit in salary wise. We could see if Yabusele & Nader wanted to hold off another year but we'd have to use that extra money to sign two additional players; not sure if we'll find value better than our own guys there.

---Jackson's salary is on the books, half of it is guaranteed anyway so it seems wise to just fully guarantee the rest to avoid needing to sign an additional player on top of that to get us to 12, avoiding cap holds.

---I believe we can use the room exception on Amir (or another big if he does not accept it).

---That leaves us with two extra roster spots to fill with the veteran minimum (Green & Jerebko?)


Thomas / Rozier / Jackson
Bradley / Fultz / Nader
Hayward / Brown / Green
Crowder / Yabusele / Jerebko
Horford / Zizic / Johnson

I'd be cool with that. It's not the super-duper best conceivable scenario, but it's darned good. To get from there to a championship, we'd need:

-- Sufficiently good health luck.
-- Re-signing guys when the time comes.
-- Additional good luck among bigs, whether through Zizic blowing up or Brooklyn 18 or whatever.

Your idea is a little extreme in the lack of traditional centers, but so be it. Most championships in the NBA are won with the help of considerable amounts of innovation or other uniqueness, and a rather extreme commitment to small ball might be one part of that differentiation.

Yeah, the small ball isn't so much by choice but realistic options while going after Hayward. We could, in theory, also trade Jae for future draft considerations and retain Kelly but I'm not sure that is likely.***

The team as designed is better than our current team and does nothing to sacrifice our future; I think that's Danny's goal. If Brooklyn is putrid again, we can land a stud big man in 2018 (Bamba, Porter or Ayton). Doncic looks nice as well but that's another perimeter player. Obviously a lot to be ironed out before we start worrying that far ahead but I think it makes the most sense.

***The other piece I'd add is if Zizic comes out looking at least better than Amir does now (pretty conceivable), he could be our starting center and push Crowder to the bench or even to another team with a mid-season trade.

[Homerclease]

2 of Bradley, Rozier, Smart, Crowder and Olynyk are gone. It all depends on who Ainge wants to keep.

Yep it's KO + 1 really. Bradley is the best player of the group but will also be the most expensive to retain and is also the least versatile when it comes to playing multiple positions. Logic dictates that either Bradley or Smart are the one to go and that's going to be difficult decision for Ainge to make

[Banks2Pierce]

Draft Fultz
Trade Bradley for Richaun Holmes and lesser of PHI/LAL 2018(probably need some creativity pick wise to even this out)
Shop Rozier for best future pick value
Stash Yabu Again
Keep KO's cap hold and try to get him at a decent number
Amir(or whoever) Room Exception

IT/Fultz/Monte Morris
Hayward/Smart
Crowder/Jaylen
Horford/KO
Zizic/Holmes

Still feet partially dipped into the water at both ends. Likely a 56+ win team. Zizic would mostly be starting in a fake rookie way where he starts halves and barely returns. Biggest concern is honestly that we'll have none of those easily expendable midrange contracts to add to the 1sts for cashing in on a star if a team is not a fan of KO.