Offseason Cap situation

[djFan71]

Spoiler:

120% isn't going to change, though. Definitely worth using the #s hugepatsfan provided.

I didn't know about #47, though. Can we sign 2nds and UDFAs for that little a cap hit? I assume Waters for that too (if he agrees as an RFA and doesn't get a bigger offer)? If so, that makes filling the last roster spot or 2 a lot easier when you're trying to duck. Like my post above you could use 30 instead of 26 easily if you bring on 47 instead of a vet min.

If the cap settles at the current ~$109M, then the salary for a player with 0 years of experience can be as low as $898,310. That's also the cap hit. If that plyers is undrafted however, the tax hit is the same as the 2-year veteran minimum of $1,620,564.

Waters' minimum, if he's on a standard contract, is $1,445,697.

There is very little chance the Celtics will be worried about $500-700K, if they are already paying the tax. That sort of cheapness is what agents and players notice. Look at Giannis. He's not happy that the Bucks got cheap. The Celtics aren't going to risk sending any sort of the same message to any of their players. Not when they are a title contender.

Love the info on the cap Smitty, keep up the good work!

Agreed, thanks, Smitty! I was worried about the cheapness only in the duck the tax by the tiniest margins / for my own info reasons. Fully agree they're not going to cheap out to that level.

[Fencer reregistered]

Kanter won't touch $5M this offseason. None of the cap space teams would sign him and no one else is giving him more than half of their MLE. Plus, he LOVES Boston and has wanted to be there for a while now. He's not going anywhere.

That he loves it here is obvious. But that he wanted to make his way here is news. Why did he want to?

[Fencer reregistered]

2021 is an all-time bad FA class. 2022 FA class is ridiculous. I really wouldn't be surprised no matter what he does. Opting in gets him $34 million but also limits his next contract. He won't be able to get it here so he's essentially committing to playing here for one more year than uprooting his family. Opting out will allow him to sign somewhere for 5 years and give his family stability and take advantage of the weak FA market. Opting out and signing with us seems impossible because how can we afford him AND Tatum? Good thing Danny had such a strong draft in 2019 and surely will have another great draft coming up, as we have a stable full of extremely talented young guys comping at the bit to become starters or stars...oh wait

There's a thread on the GB about the top 20 players in the league, and a lot of early posters suggested Jaylen for the group.

Perhaps you should educate them?

[Smitty731]

Kanter won't touch $5M this offseason. None of the cap space teams would sign him and no one else is giving him more than half of their MLE. Plus, he LOVES Boston and has wanted to be there for a while now. He's not going anywhere.

That he loves it here is obvious. But that he wanted to make his way here is news. Why did he want to?

There are a host of personal reasons, mostly related to folks in Boston being helpful with his situation related to Turkey.

On the basketball front, he wanted to play for Stevens and he loves that Ainge will do just about anything to win. The funny thing is it's that second one that could eventually see him shipped out of Boston, but that's the game!

[Parliament10]

Kanter won't touch $5M this offseason. None of the cap space teams would sign him and no one else is giving him more than half of their MLE. Plus, he LOVES Boston and has wanted to be there for a while now. He's not going anywhere.

That he loves it here is obvious. But that he wanted to make his way here is news. Why did he want to?

There are a host of personal reasons, mostly related to folks in Boston being helpful with his situation related to Turkey.

On the basketball front, he wanted to play for Stevens and he loves that Ainge will do just about anything to win. The funny thing is it's that second one that could eventually see him shipped out of Boston, but that's the game!

Thanks for filling in the blanks, Smitty. Always great to read your Writing!!!

Also, Thanks to 100proof, for making a great Thread!!!

[Fencer reregistered]

Kanter won't touch $5M this offseason. None of the cap space teams would sign him and no one else is giving him more than half of their MLE. Plus, he LOVES Boston and has wanted to be there for a while now. He's not going anywhere.

That he loves it here is obvious. But that he wanted to make his way here is news. Why did he want to?

There are a host of personal reasons, mostly related to folks in Boston being helpful with his situation related to Turkey.

On the basketball front, he wanted to play for Stevens and he loves that Ainge will do just about anything to win. The funny thing is it's that second one that could eventually see him shipped out of Boston, but that's the game!

So it's more than just a lot of people who grew up in Europe liking Boston, him included. Cool! Thanks for sharing.

[LuckyLeprechaun]

FWIW, I expect the Celtics to consolidate some of the draft picks, possibly lose Wanamaker, elevate Waters to a standard deal, bring back Tacko on a Two-Way and then rookie or two come in at the very end of the roster.

I think it will be difficult to consolidate draft picks. All reports I've seen indicate that many teams are hoping to sell draft picks this year. I can't see Danny giving them away for free. Getting value is his MO. I wonder how heavily we will look into draft and stash players.

[Smitty731]

FWIW, I expect the Celtics to consolidate some of the draft picks, possibly lose Wanamaker, elevate Waters to a standard deal, bring back Tacko on a Two-Way and then rookie or two come in at the very end of the roster.

I think it will be difficult to consolidate draft picks. All reports I've seen indicate that many teams are hoping to sell draft picks this year. I can't see Danny giving them away for free. Getting value is his MO. I wonder how heavily we will look into draft and stash players.

No one sells first round picks. The situation isn't that dire. Second round picks, however, are very much for sale all across the league.

[LuckyLeprechaun]

FWIW, I expect the Celtics to consolidate some of the draft picks, possibly lose Wanamaker, elevate Waters to a standard deal, bring back Tacko on a Two-Way and then rookie or two come in at the very end of the roster.

I think it will be difficult to consolidate draft picks. All reports I've seen indicate that many teams are hoping to sell draft picks this year. I can't see Danny giving them away for free. Getting value is his MO. I wonder how heavily we will look into draft and stash players.

No one sells first round picks. The situation isn't that dire. Second round picks, however, are very much for sale all across the league.

I meant more in the context of teams wanting to trade them into the future not it terms of selling them for cash like the Suns did with the Rondo pick on draft day.

[hugepatsfan]

My concern with the tax isn't what it means for '20-21. I don't think what we have is exorbitant. My concern is down the line, especially considering how if we stay over the tax this year and keep Hayward long term we're locked into the tax in '21-22 and then repeater in '22-23.

If Wyc says no to the repeater tax that comes with Hayward staying long-term, then you really have to consider things. Because with Tatum's extension kicking in we don't even really get savings by letting him walk. Then there are also player raises built into all the other contracts. If Wyc says we have to avoid repeater rates, we need to get under the tax in one of the next 3 years. And doing it in '21-22 or '22-23 is going to require a lot of penny pinching even in addition to letting Hayward walk. Especially if the cap is lowered in future years to prevent as much of a drop next year. The sacrifices it takes to get under the tax now pale in comparison to what it'd take in one of the next 2 years. So if Wyc prohibits Ainge from getting into repeater rates then it's really in our best interests to tackle that issue right now, because it only gets harder down the line.

And maybe Wyc is willing to pay that. I bet he probably is. BUT, what if that cost of keeping Hayward long-term puts us in a spot where Wyc draws the line at keeping Theis for what will likely be full MLE type money next year? What if at a repeater rate penalty he won't sign off on using the tax payers MLE in '22-23 but he would at a normal rate? You're still likely to see ome penny pinching down the line because we jsut have an expensive team.

And there's a downside to getting under as well. I know I've suggested new deals for Hayward that lower '20-21 cap hit but definitely inflate his cap numbers down the line. That pushes the tax bill higher in future years and might wipe out the benefit of getting under in '20-21.

At the end of the day, and I'm sure our front office will, you really have to look at the bigger picture. You can't just consider 2020-21 from a financial standpoint. It seemed we were in good shape with a $139M tax line o hopefully that sticks. Realistic moves can be made to dip below the tax there and that should set us up in good shape to keep main pieces down the line. But if that fact changes, then we just need to make sure we've adjusted to something that is feasible long term in the new environment.

I’m sure mike Zarren will I wouldn’t over think it

I'm sure he will just like every other team will build a plan. But their last real transaction window was the trade deadline. Since then, the economics of the ENTIRE WORLD have drastically shifted. So it's not like any move they've made so far was in anticipation of the current economic environment and we've yet to see any impacts it might have on what previous reports indicated (i.e. strong deadline reports that they wanted to not only keep Hayward but extend him). So if any of us are going to discuss the future of the team I think we have to at least consider the financial side of things.

[itrsteve]

2021 is an all-time bad FA class. 2022 FA class is ridiculous. I really wouldn't be surprised no matter what he does. Opting in gets him $34 million but also limits his next contract. He won't be able to get it here so he's essentially committing to playing here for one more year than uprooting his family. Opting out will allow him to sign somewhere for 5 years and give his family stability and take advantage of the weak FA market. Opting out and signing with us seems impossible because how can we afford him AND Tatum? Good thing Danny had such a strong draft in 2019 and surely will have another great draft coming up, as we have a stable full of extremely talented young guys comping at the bit to become starters or stars...oh wait

Bird rights and digging into the tax.

I don't think he's going to money chase and certainly wants to play/win here. He knows the opportunity at hand, a few extra $m at the end of his career to play for The Hawks is asinine.

The way I see it there are two paths if he wants to stay (which I believe he does):
1.) Opt-out and re-sign on something friendly'ish - he'll have greater negotiation leverage if he does this now and can bake in some certainty on his earnings in the coming seasons. Given this is a guy who has been riddled with injury time, I'm certain he values the idea of guaranteed salary

2.) Opt-in and roll the dice next season - less negotiation leverage, the team deal will be even friendlier BUT he'll have eligibility for a no-trade clause if he really wants to bake in certainty. But a lot can happen in one season.