Welcome Derrick White

[zoyathedestroya]

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[djFan71]

Spoiler:

The author is just talking about the expected value (EV) of picks so how many wins you can expect on average from a pick at that slot. Taking the Celtics/Nets exemple he is saying that the number of wins produced by your typical #2 + your typical #27 pick = number of wins produced by the #1.

That doesn't mean you should trade #1 for #2 and #27 because in the NBA it's much better to have a 10 win player and a 0 win player than two 5 wins player. There are also a lot of other reasons that cause teams to have to pay a big premium to move up in the draft especially towards the top. Teams really don't want to give up those picks. Owners want to pick at the top to have a potential star to market to fans after a tough year so they can sell season tickets. GMs would rather stay put and pick BPA than trade down and get another pick down the road (it's better for their job security because it's easier to explain that it's not your fault that the guy everybody tought was going to be a star busted than to move down four spots see a future star go before your new lower pick and be questioned until the end of time as to why you didn't stay put and just pick the guy that ended up working out)...

So yeah even if in theory the total value 2 + 27 might equal 1, in practice it's really not and you would never be able to move up from 2 to 1 with just the 27th pick. Ironically the 27th pick had a great run in the mid 2010s with Gobert, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Nance, Siakam, Kuzma and Timelord in consecutive drafts.

Yep, we're on the same page with all that. To me, it just kinda degrades a little at each step. No player eval stat is perfect. Then relating that to average of that stat per pick position, then relating that to trade up value, then relating the result of all that to the value of a pick swap. To say pick swaps are worth an early 2nd after all that just piles up way too much error along the way.

And, more importantly, doesn't account for the fact that adding ANY shot for a small market team to have a chance of drafting a star to compete with is really all that matters. Those chances are few & far between, so adding any shot regardless of the odds of it paying off is more valuable than the odds would say. No matter how dumb that sounds as I type it, lol.

I'm not even really against the White trade. He's a really good player and I'm glad we have him. I would have been happier at top 4 protection (to prevent the super-unlucky play-in ouster lotto jump) and personally would have walked away if Spurs didn't budge off top 1.

My main quibble is I think people UNDER-estimate the values of swaps, tbh. If you trade an unprotected swap (or top 1), you have a non-zero chance of giving up a top 4 pick. Period. And if that happens, the fact that you get a lesser pick back in exchange doesn't really soften the blow that much. Obviously, a very long shot it happens, but as much as I like White, there should be NO shot you lose a top 4 pick when acquiring him.

People correctly value normal unprotected picks very highly. But it's no different trading an unprotected pick (non-swap variety) vs trading an unprotected swap for your chances of losing a top 4 pick. Sure, you get a consolation prize in the swap scenario, but you still lose the prize jewel of draft assets.

My only quibble here is that you aren't taking into account the OTHER team getting a top 4 pick as well. We always think about the doomsday scenario of us getting a top 4 pick and the other team having a late 1st. But what if we get #4 and SA is picking #2. Or vice versa, where the consolation prize there is still worlds better than the doomsday scenarios people are making up.

You're 100% right about the non-zero chance we end up with a crazy high pick, but need to also remember that other team has a non-zero chance of that as well.

Fair. But, a) now you've multiplied the odds of one of those happening to 2 of those happening (though you could argue the other teams top 4 odds are higher so not a true squaring), and b) even going from 2 to 4 is costly. Although, we've obviously done pretty well at 3.

[djFan71]

DW averaged 14.5/3.5/3 in four preseason games (23mpg) on 62/56/86 shooting splits -- wow is that new jumper working!
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/preseason/team/Boston-Celtics/2/stats

I loved Josh Richardson but don't even know if he's on an NBA roster, and I'm not going to bother Googling Romeo Langford

I hear you should google Fournier instead.

[zoyathedestroya]

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Preseason performance worthy of a barely-protected pick swap, IIDSSM.

[djFan71]

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Preseason performance worthy of a barely-protected pick swap, IIDSSM.

He keeps that up all year, I'll remove the top 1 protection myself.

[Celts17Pride]

D White is primed for a big year.

[Floody100]

Our 8th best player cost us Josh Richardson, Romeo Langford, a 1st round pick and a potential future 1st round swap (potentially devastating since Horford and Brown may both be long gone and Smart 30 y/o) crazy how bad this trade is. Legit one of the worst in our franchise’s history. ONLY a championship with him as a major reason for winning would make this palatable. We’re going to feel the ramifications of this for a decade

[zoyathedestroya]

Josh Richardson scored 11 pts in a 9-pt win by the Spurs against the Sixers. Without JRich's production, Sixers would now have a win. Just a really good trade by Brad all around.

[celtxman]

Our 8th best player cost us Josh Richardson, Romeo Langford, a 1st round pick and a potential future 1st round swap (potentially devastating since Horford and Brown may both be long gone and Smart 30 y/o) crazy how bad this trade is. Legit one of the worst in our franchise’s history. ONLY a championship with him as a major reason for winning would make this palatable. We’re going to feel the ramifications of this for a decade

You only need to read my posts in this thread to know that I wasn't letting White off the hook by just moving the ball well. But it's far too drastic to think this will cost the Celtics long term. I don't see probably one late first round pick derailing the Celtics future. That wouldn't solve losing Horford and/or Brown. White doesn't need to play as well as he did today to make the trade worth it. Last year he was missing wide open threes. This year he's hitting contested threes. We have a small sample size right now. But he is turning into the San Antonio Derrick White and now you can understand the trade and the contract is good and they have him locked up.
Richardson was a good addition at the beginning of last year before he was traded, and it didn't escape me that Richardson was here at the beginning of the turnaround. That's why White's play overall last year was not acceptable, all things considered, hence my feeling last year. But he not only has been better this year, he's playing with confidence.

[BostonCouchGM]

White is getting all of the wide open threes Crowder, Jaylen and then Grant used to get and he's taking advantage of it like they did. It's a pivotal role in our offense and seems to be able to be filled by just about anyone tbh

[ScottieJ]

White is getting all of the wide open threes Crowder, Jaylen and then Grant used to get and he's taking advantage of it like they did. It's a pivotal role in our offense and seems to be able to be filled by just about anyone tbh

Not your binky Pritchard apparently though. Must sting quite a bit that White had a great game.

[BostonCouchGM]

White is getting all of the wide open threes Crowder, Jaylen and then Grant used to get and he's taking advantage of it like they did. It's a pivotal role in our offense and seems to be able to be filled by just about anyone tbh

Not your binky Pritchard apparently though. Must sting quite a bit that White had a great game.

Yeah, def not the guy who has shot 41% from three in that role the past two years. Yep, this dude seriously just wrote this and thought he said something. Rent free. Jesus what an absolutely embarrassing fail. Please never try that again ha ha ha

[Floody100]

White is getting all of the wide open threes Crowder, Jaylen and then Grant used to get and he's taking advantage of it like they did. It's a pivotal role in our offense and seems to be able to be filled by just about anyone tbh

Not your binky Pritchard apparently though. Must sting quite a bit that White had a great game.

Yeah, def not the guy who has shot 41% from three in that role the past two years. Yep, this dude seriously just wrote this and thought he said something. Rent free. Jesus what an absolutely embarrassing fail. Please never try that again ha ha ha

[31to6]

Don’t feed the troll.
But also Derrick White is really good even when he doesn’t score much.

[TatumMVP]

White is getting all of the wide open threes Crowder, Jaylen and then Grant used to get and he's taking advantage of it like they did. It's a pivotal role in our offense and seems to be able to be filled by just about anyone tbh

[ScottieJ]

White is getting all of the wide open threes Crowder, Jaylen and then Grant used to get and he's taking advantage of it like they did. It's a pivotal role in our offense and seems to be able to be filled by just about anyone tbh

Not your binky Pritchard apparently though. Must sting quite a bit that White had a great game.

Yeah, def not the guy who has shot 41% from three in that role the past two years. Yep, this dude seriously just wrote this and thought he said something. Rent free. Jesus what an absolutely embarrassing fail. Please never try that again ha ha ha

[BostonCouchGM]

Not your binky Pritchard apparently though. Must sting quite a bit that White had a great game.

Yeah, def not the guy who has shot 41% from three in that role the past two years. Yep, this dude seriously just wrote this and thought he said something. Rent free. Jesus what an absolutely embarrassing fail. Please never try that again ha ha ha

yes. Facts are CRAAZY!!!!

[ballup]

White has had two good shooting games, but until teams give him the respect, the spacing still gets affected. Hopefully he builds that rep while Timelord is out. Smart hasn't been a decent shooter his whole career, but the lack of hesitation makes defenses thought twice. Of course it'll be much better if White is actually becomes a good shooter

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[Scarletfire81]

I never thought Derrick White would have game like he did last night. Dude is already surpassing my expectations, fits this team like a glove. Well worth what we gave up and then some.

[BostonCouchGM]

I never thought Derrick White would have game like he did last night. Dude is already surpassing my expectations, fits this team like a glove. Well worth what we gave up and then some.

nothing but a championship will be worth what we gave up imo but he's fitting his role perfectly and softening the blow for sure. His shot looks revamped to me. Kudos to him for working on it.