Turgon wrote:For this whole scenario, 4 things need to happen, with varying degrees of reasonability:
1) Knicks get the #1 pick (at best 14% probability)
2) NO waits till next season and accepts Knicks offer;
3) Durant signs with the Knicks;
4) Kyrie signs with the Knicks.
So, we all know the probabilities of the #1 pick: 14% at best.
2) will only happen if they get #1. And even then we're not sure the Pelicans would prefer it to, say, Brown, Tatum, Smart and 4+ first round picks. He may even agree to a deal with Ainge right now that he won't renege on.
As for 3) Captain says there are rumors about KD considering signing with the Knicks and I believe him, but he certainly hasn't made his mind up yet. Maybe he's simply trying to force the FO to ship Green out of there. Or maybe when push comes to shove he will simply stay with the Warriors. Who knows what's in his mind?
And as for Kyrie, who knows? He's certainly not the most trust inspiring guy around, but will he really bolt for a Knicks team that has sucked for years and became a joke of a franchise? If he does, it would be to win a championship and that would probably only be possible in NY with both Davis AND Durant.
So what is the final probability of this happening? Fairly low. Possible but unlikely. I still trust Kyrie will stay, but like Captain says it's not guaranteed.
Right, but it's
1. Davis isn't traded before the deadline.
2. New York makes no additional trades for draft picks or Pelicans-friendly players.
3. Knicks get a top 3 pick. (Barrett or Ja Morant probably keep the Knicks in the running.)
4. Durant leaves the Warriors and chooses the Knicks.
5. Davis hasn't been traded to Boston.
6. Kyrie leaves Boston for New York.