Trade Thread 2017: Not Once, Not twice, But Thrice!

[Fencer reregistered]

As do I. Good thing I'm here to correct those who need it

https://xkcd.com/386/

[Andrew McCeltic]

Avery/Amir to MIN, Rubio/Shabazz to CHI, Butler to BOS works in the checker. MIN says hell yes, would probably give up more in the deal, maybe even their 2017 1st, top 3 protected.

This is the kind of trade I'd look at, let the Bulls say no. Rubio gives them an identity and is the kind of offensive distributor who can, like Nash did in Phoenix, carry a team offensively with his passing.

[Disinformation]

IDK, actually - if CHI wants to move Butler before he becomes a problem, they might think Rubio's undervalued and be happy to get a few younger players and picks.

Did I miss something? You've been proposing ridiculously low-ball (IMO) trade ideas for him and now he's going to be a problem?

Honest question.

[Fencer reregistered]

Hypothetically we land #1. #1, BK18, JBrown, Bradley, Zizic, Memphis pick, Boston 2018 pick and Clippers pick for Davis and take Moore off their books too.

At least three different writers would independently come up with the idea of comparing that to the Herschel Walker trade.

[Fencer reregistered]

IDK, actually - if CHI wants to move Butler before he becomes a problem, they might think Rubio's undervalued and be happy to get a few younger players and picks.

One problem with any deal that values an incoming PG highly -- it accentuates the mistake they made signing Rondo.

[GoCeltics123]

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Shoutout to my guy Smitty again

[Andrew McCeltic]

IDK, actually - if CHI wants to move Butler before he becomes a problem, they might think Rubio's undervalued and be happy to get a few younger players and picks.

Did I miss something? You've been proposing ridiculously low-ball (IMO) trade ideas for him and now he's going to be a problem?

Honest question.

I'm low-balling because I think the market might be changing, and that Chicago's in a position to do something weird. There are a lot of teams with stars they don't want to part with, a lot of teams building around "franchise players" who aren't Shaq or Lebron types. Very late 90s. Odds of Houston winning a championship very very low, but they're storming through the regular season with Harden. OKC kept Westbrook. Chicago did the same thing, weirdly signing Rondo and Wade. It might actually become a buyer's market for star players, because no one has much to offer for them. Philly has hoarded assets, Boston has hoarded Brooklyn's assets - I'm not imagining any offers-you-can't-refuse for Butler.

And I think - this is just a hunch/guess - Chicago wants to move him, for reasons that only make sense to them. And my guess is they're worried he'll become a problem at some point. They're not acting in a rational way, and combined with the market, that's when you can get a great deal.

[Andrew McCeltic]

It's possible Butler's overrated, by the way. Or that Chicago underrates him. Rubio is definitely underrated right now. Avery and Amir are underrated, but if we want a star (and aren't overrating Butler), that's the kind of triangular deal where you can really profit.

[165bows]

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Shoutout to my guy Smitty again

Followed up with this:

Keith Smith ‏@KeithSmithNBA

Far more teams are buyers vs sellers right now around the NBA. Only 4 games separate 8-15 in the West & only 4.5 separate 5-12 in the East.

Good news for our favorite sellers. Make a deal!

[Andrew McCeltic]

Parity is part of it, teams are going to start getting 'smart' because there are no obvious deals, and analytics can let you convince yourself of anything. Smart GMs will make great deals, and others will outsmart themselves.

Butler is one option. Another would be trading our Tony Delk and Rodney Rogers for someone else's Joe Johnson. Aaron Gordon, Hezonja, Exum are guys you could look at.

Just speculating - and you all can tell me why this must be wrong - that we may see different kinds of trades, especially involving stars. The days of having a clear script like the one we used to get KG, that everyone else imitated, including Morey for Harden, the Clippers for Chris Paul - where you stock up on young players, picks, mid-priced roleplayers - and cashed them in - may be over.

Sideways deals, salary dumps, trading stars without getting a KG package in return - star for star swaps because you think their guy fits your system better than your guy - none of that would surprise me.

[Marvel]

It's possible Butler's overrated, by the way. Or that Chicago underrates him. Rubio is definitely underrated right now. Avery and Amir are underrated, but if we want a star (and aren't overrating Butler), that's the kind of triangular deal where you can really profit.

lolwut?

[Disinformation]

IDK, actually - if CHI wants to move Butler before he becomes a problem, they might think Rubio's undervalued and be happy to get a few younger players and picks.

Did I miss something? You've been proposing ridiculously low-ball (IMO) trade ideas for him and now he's going to be a problem?

Honest question.

I'm low-balling because I think the market might be changing, and that Chicago's in a position to do something weird. There are a lot of teams with stars they don't want to part with, a lot of teams building around "franchise players" who aren't Shaq or Lebron types. Very late 90s. Odds of Houston winning a championship very very low, but they're storming through the regular season with Harden. OKC kept Westbrook. Chicago did the same thing, weirdly signing Rondo and Wade. It might actually become a buyer's market for star players, because no one has much to offer for them. Philly has hoarded assets, Boston has hoarded Brooklyn's assets - I'm not imagining any offers-you-can't-refuse for Butler.

And I think - this is just a hunch/guess - Chicago wants to move him, for reasons that only make sense to them. And my guess is they're worried he'll become a problem at some point. They're not acting in a rational way, and combined with the market, that's when you can get a great deal.

OK, so you have a theory. I can respect that. It certainly explains some of your other posts. Thanks for clarifying.

I'm not sure what "reasons that only make sense to them[Bulls]" would be but that would be great if true and we can get Butler cheap. Personally, I'm not holding my breath, though.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Read on Twitter

Shoutout to my guy Smitty again

Followed up with this:

Keith Smith ‏@KeithSmithNBA

Far more teams are buyers vs sellers right now around the NBA. Only 4 games separate 8-15 in the West & only 4.5 separate 5-12 in the East.

Good news for our favorite sellers. Make a deal!

Are we a buyer or a seller? There are a lot of buyers, but they're stingy buyers - a ton of teams who would love to add Jimmy Butler, but not a lot who can get him without giving up so much that the trade is a wash.

[Andrew McCeltic]

It's possible Butler's overrated, by the way. Or that Chicago underrates him. Rubio is definitely underrated right now. Avery and Amir are underrated, but if we want a star (and aren't overrating Butler), that's the kind of triangular deal where you can really profit.

lolwut?

Wut? We've had that debate on this board - prior to this season, he's been a good offensive player. Not an elite one. His defense and size are big draws - prototypical size for the position, elite defense, good offense. You could argue his offense this season is based on how talent has thinned out and defenses have gone a little slack.

[SMTBSI]

https://xkcd.com/386/

One of the most broadly applicable comics on the internet.

Right there along with

Spoiler:

and

Spoiler:

[Andrew McCeltic]

Did I miss something? You've been proposing ridiculously low-ball (IMO) trade ideas for him and now he's going to be a problem?

Honest question.

I'm low-balling because I think the market might be changing, and that Chicago's in a position to do something weird. There are a lot of teams with stars they don't want to part with, a lot of teams building around "franchise players" who aren't Shaq or Lebron types. Very late 90s. Odds of Houston winning a championship very very low, but they're storming through the regular season with Harden. OKC kept Westbrook. Chicago did the same thing, weirdly signing Rondo and Wade. It might actually become a buyer's market for star players, because no one has much to offer for them. Philly has hoarded assets, Boston has hoarded Brooklyn's assets - I'm not imagining any offers-you-can't-refuse for Butler.

And I think - this is just a hunch/guess - Chicago wants to move him, for reasons that only make sense to them. And my guess is they're worried he'll become a problem at some point. They're not acting in a rational way, and combined with the market, that's when you can get a great deal.

OK, so you have a theory. I can respect that. It certainly explains some of your other posts. Thanks for clarifying.

I'm not sure what "reasons that only make sense to them[Bulls]" would be but that would be great if true and we can get Butler cheap. Personally, I'm not holding my breath, though.

Bulls' reasons? They don't like Butler, they have a strong contingent that wanted to deal him and keep the team around Rose and his recovery; they want to have a higher profit margin on the team, Reinsdorf is quirky, he might want to put money elsewhere, or into the White Sox - I don't know. Hoiberg is an unpopular coach, but they want to show support for him. They're a weird front office, they feuded with Thibs a lot. My guess is there's less conventional wisdom in NBA front offices than sports media lead us to think, FWIW - you have old-school coaches and GMs, guys with philosophical commitments to certain kinds of basketball, or team cultures, guys with egos who think they see something another team doesn't, or that no one else does. It could be a lot of things.

My reference point is always the bad moves Pitino made. Why did we deal an unprotected first to upgrade Declerq to Potapenko? Why'd we deal Billups and Joe Johnson, and trade for Vin Baker? Why did Chris Wallace deal Pau Gasol for a 1st? Why did the Clippers give their unprotected 1st to Cleveland, which became Kyrie Irving, to dump Baron Davis' money? Teams do dumb or quirky or human things under pressure.

And again, they're only dangling Butler because they have a motivation to.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Ainge is, from what I can tell, GREAT at management. Not just GM-ing, like evaluating players and negotiating trade opportunities, but management - he keeps a stable organization, that balances winning and development, keeps players happy, keeps things in house, seems to communicate well and fairly, balances what he says to the media, and to his players, with what the job demands, and seems to be honest as much as possible, without alienating anyone. Working with agents.. It's an incredible balancing act.

[Captain_Caveman]

Nets are so terrible at this point I think it maybe making Celtic's fans a bit overconfident that no matter who they pick in this draft the prospect will pan out. Undoubtedly one of these "can't miss" prospects are going to miss. A bird in hand is better than two in the bush. Danny has a difficult task making his choice for the direction of the franchise. At least he's given himself plenty of options.

There is risk to assess on all sides. I know which option I'm going with if the choice is between risking both Nets picks busting in strong drafts vs Butler's knees not exploding, though.

I get it, Butler isn't a slam dunk, an excellent player, but it all comes down to price and value. His contract doesn't move the needle for you? If Ainge is able to to get Butler only giving up one of Jaylen, Nets' 17, or Nets' 18 do you pull the trigger?

Especially if Ainge can pull of a secondary move for either Noel or Millsap?

I do one of Jaylen or the BKN 18 with whatever else they want, but not both and not the BKN 17.

[Curmudgeon]

I do one of Jaylen or the BKN 18 with whatever else they want, but not both and not the BKN 17.

That's about where I am on Butler as well. He just doesn't do it for me, especially so long as IT remains a Celtic. In the 4th quarter of close games the ball will be in IT's hands, not Butler's, and Butler becomes what Love has become in Cleveland-- a spot up shooter. The difference is that Love is shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc, while Butler is under 35%.

Butler is a nice defender but so is Bradley, a player you would likely have to give up to get Butler. And Bradley is shooting nearly 42% from three point range, seven percentage points higher than Butler.

[Captain_Caveman]

I do one of Jaylen or the BKN 18 with whatever else they want, but not both and not the BKN 17.

That's about where I am on Butler as well. He just doesn't do it for me, especially so long as IT remains a Celtic. In the 4th quarter of close games the ball will be in IT's hands, not Butler's, and Butler becomes what Love has become in Cleveland-- a spot up shooter. The difference is that Love is shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc, while Butler is under 35%.

Butler is a nice defender but so is Bradley, a player you would likely have to give up to get Butler. And Bradley is shooting nearly 42% from three point range, seven percentage points higher than Butler.

Would you trade IT and Bradley plus non BKN picks for Butler?

I would.

Smart
Butler/Rozier
Crowder/Jaylen
Horford
Zizic

Plus a top 5 pick?

Thug life.