djFan71 wrote:redslastlaugh wrote:djFan71 wrote:Another thing to consider is that beyond Amari and Shulga, we have the best of MIL, DET and ORL's 2nd this year in a pretty good draft. Right now, that's pick 38. And who knows what happens with Giannis. So, we traded (known) 32 last year for 38ish this year plus Amari, Shulga and a 2027 2nd.
Yea, that Milwaukee pick could be in the 30s, if they do trade Giannis and Milwaukee collapses that pick could get as high as 35 or something. So that's a good 2nd we picked up.
.... .. so maybe if we have our 2026 1st rnd pick, the Pels 2nd, & the Bucks 2nd, I hope Brad decides (after seeing Walsh & Hugo) that we should draft two whole players and sign them, lol
edit: quick edit, Ainge's 2004 draft, taking Al Jeff, Delonte, Tony Allen, & Justin Reed and signing 4 rookies was one of the most important moments in recent Celtics history. Al Jefferson became the main piece that faciliated KG's acquisition, Delonte was a sweetener in Ray Allen's acquisition, and Tony Allen was a contributor on 2 teams that went to the Finals... and then Justin Reed didn't pan out.. but this was just a hugely important draft and if Ainge had instead been unwilling to allot four roster spots to four rookies from one draft, we would have been a lot worse off as a franchise... so drafting players for the roster is pretty important imo
I think 2nds tend to have
slightly more value as trade facilitators than as actual players. Sometimes you just need something to throw in a trade that isn't worth a first. I think Brad thinks that way as well. And the difference between taking your shots on picks 40+ vs UDFA isn't really huge. 32 is a different story, but getting 4 picks to take a shot at a big, facilitate dumping salary we needed to dump, and still have a good pick this upcoming draft is pretty good value.
Springer was obviously a miss. But, man the potential was there. As was Luis as part of 2 seconds value for Niang. But, Luis was just recovering some value as a flyer since Austin was being a jerk and wouldn't take just one 2nd for Niang. Then he got hurt, so it just didn't happen.
I'm sure Brad would've trade the Shulga pick if he could've gotten anything for it, but
I am higher on picks after #20 than most people. I was listening to Ryen Russillo pod when Ryen was talking about trading multiple picks to land a star and that Russillo thought the team getting the star almost always wins those trades because the picks going out end up being picks in the 20s, and the good players are mostly gone.
Obviously, most of top prospects get drafted 1-20, but also getting an impact player with a low value asset ends up making a huge difference on your teams success. OKC for instance, has Chet & Cason Wallace as top 10 picks. SGA and Jalen Williams were 10-20 picks. And then the rest of their championship core was guys taken in 2nd round (Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams) or undrafted (Alex Caruso, Lu Dort, Kenrich Williams)... so in our situation, if Jordan Walsh hits his ceiling outcome, his value should far, far exceed what we could have acquired if we traded our #38 pick for another future 2nd and used it to grease a trade.
I do think you're right that Brad would rather have the 2nds to make trades for known quantities (Mike Muscala, Xavier Tillman) and I see the value in that, but I also like drafting some guys and then signing your draftees to 4 yr deals with team options on the end. GSW signed Will Richard to a 4yr deal, Cleveland did the same with Tyrese Proctor and I like that risk, reward profile. I would have just signed Amari Williams to a 4yr deal with options on yrs 3 &4 and not even messed with Luka Garza...
I theorize that Ainge sticking Brad with so many late pick rookies who couldnt play and forcing Brad to manage their immaturity and frustration just biased Stevens that the juice isn't worth the squeeze. And from a Brad's perspective as coach, Tatum, Brown & Smart were the players we drafted that impacted winning the most and these were all high lottery picks. And the late picks (the RJ Hunters and Jordan Mickeys and Demerius Jacksons etc) were mostly a waste of time ... but the GM is a different job and it's hard to build a roster if you don't have contributors on rookie deals, so you gotta make swings, have some churn to find the value, and Brad has that now with Walsh and Hugo, which is great...
And, hindsight is 20/20, but we could have done more damage (Austin Reaves) in the 2nd round had we been willing to offer roster contracts rather than 2-ways (which the player can decline).
