threrf23 wrote:Hal14 wrote:
We can do what Golden State did for a couple of years. They cared very little about who was gonna play the 5..put all their energy and their $ into the other 4 positions..just put in guys like Zaza Pachulia, Looney, Andrew Bogut and past his prime Cousins at the 5..rotating them in and out, sometimes with Draymond as a small ball 5. And they won 4 titles.
Defensively, they effectively had Dray playing the five. At least, they had the option. He was the equivalent of an elite defensive center. We don't have that.
I have a nearly opposite take.
Look at recent NBA champions and their starting front courts:
'23 Nuggets - Jokic/Gordon
'22 Warriors - Dray/Looney
'21 Bucks - Lopez/Giannis
'20 Lakers - Dwight/AD
'19 Raptors - Gasol/Siakam
'18 Warriors - McGee/Dray
'17 Warriors - Zaza/Dray
'16 Cavs - Love/Lebron
'15 Warriors - Bogut/Dray
'14 Spurs - Diaw/Duncan
'13 Heat - Bosh/Bron
'12 Heat - Bosh/Bron
'11 Mavs - Chandler/Dirk
'10 Lakers - Bynum/Gasol
'09 Lakers - Bynum/Gasol
'08 Celtics - Perk/KG
'07 Spurs - Oberto/Duncan
'06 Heat - Shaq/Haslem
'05 Spurs - Mohammed/Duncan
'04 Pistons - Wallace/Wallace
Defining "big man" as a player who wouldn't seem out of place at Center, several of these teams had a two big lineup, and none had an outright small lineup. Many of these teams had an elite defensive center (or the equivalent), and the ones which did not at least had an all-star caliber big man.
In fact, I think literaly
every team on that list had at least one all star caliber big man, if we define all star as an all star game appearance which occured either the season of or season after the championship. Dray was an all star in '21-22, Kevin Love an all star in '16-17, Gasol an all star '08-11, Siakam an all star in '19-20 (I don't really view Siakam as a star big man, but Marc Gasol was a key pick up for them too that year).
Perhaps star big men are fewer and fewer in today's NBA. But history says that even in the modern NBA, "star" big men win championships even more often than superstars. KP when healthy may as well be an all star big, Tillman + more familiarity could ideally give us a Dray like presence on defense, and that should be sufficient given our overall depth elsewhere. But if we are trying to turn this thing into a dynasty, this is currently our one relative weakness. And we should ideally try to address it.
We also lack a stud rebounder. I don't want to take anything away from our championship this year (nor do I want to jinx it, lol), but we were lucky to face up against the Mavs, who also lack in their front court.
I don't want to get ahead of things, but if we could somehow add a stud or stud lite center to play alongside KP; IMO we end up with better overall balance in addition to KP insurance.
1) Going all the way back to 2004 and 2005 isn't very relevant to a discussion about what our roster should look like in the 24-25 season. It's a very different league these days.
The NBA in 2024 is more about pace, spacing and 3 pt shooting than ever before. It's all about spreading the floor, playing 5 guys out, drive and kick, need all shooters on the floor (or at least 4 shooters on the floor).
2) Most of these examples are also not as relevant to the Celtics because they didn't have the type of talent/star power that Boston has at the guard/wing positions. We literally have 4 all-star caliber players at the guard/wing positions, with 1 of them being a top 5 player in the league & another being probably a top 15 player in the league. Those other teams you listed did not have the type of talent/star power at the guard/wing positions as we do - except for maybe the Warriors teams that had Steph/Klay/KD/Iggy. And those warriors teams had Zaza Pachulia at the 5, and dominated the crap out of everybody.
3) My main point here is about mitigating risk.
Over the past few years, injuries have played a big factor in who wins (or doesn't win) the NBA title. I don't think there's really much of a debate on that one.
Well, for the past 6 yrs now, we have had one of the most injury prone players in the league at center (Rob for 5 yrs, and now KP for 1). Again, this is more anecdotal (rather than data) but it seems to be like over the past few yrs, bigs are more injury prone than guards/wings are (not just Rob and KP, but also guys like Mitchell Robinson, Zach Collins, Embiid, Giannis, Nurkic have been injury prone, Chet Holmgren missed his entire rookie season to injury, etc.
Sure, guards/wings sometimes get hurt too. Like Haliburton and Mitchell in this year's playoffs..but both of them only missed a couple of games. And it seems like cases like that happen far less often than bigs getting hurt. Jimmy Butler got hurt in this year's playoffs (and has also been hurt in other postseasons) but he's also getting old..age 34..guys when they hit that age are typically more injury prone.
Bottom line, you mitigate the risk by having more durable guys on your team, less injury prone guys. Hence, why the Celtics did not think twice about trading Kemba, Hayward, Gallinari, Rob, Brogdon..and even Smart was injured quite a bit during his last few yrs in Boston.
It wouldn't shock me if KP is the next damaged goods player to get moved. It's a big risk if so much of your title hopes are tied to an injury prone player - you reduce that risk by moving KP. And if you move KP, well now all of a sudden you have 4 all-star caliber players at guard/wing, (a top 5 player at wing, another all-NBA player at wing), 7 of your top 8 players are guards/wings and the only big is a 38 yr old guy.
So why not double down on guards/wings? have a committee approach at center. So you have 3-5 guys who can all play a little bit at that the 5 (you're not over-reliant on 1 of them so you're not screwed if 1 of them gets hurt). 1 of them can be Tatum in short spurts here and there (since he has good size, strength and is a god rebounder and also a decent shot blocker). And the other guys at the 5 can all be on cheap contracts, which allows you to spend more $ on guards/wings..more $ so you can afford to keep white long term, you can afford to keep Hauser long term, etc.
It's just a thought I was having..I mean who knows, we could get a pretty good player in exchange for KP..
Lastly, pretty much any championship team is gonna have at least 1 guy in the starting lineup who is kind of meh (KCP on the 2023 nuggets, Looney on the 2022 warriors, PJ Tucker on the 21' bucks, 2020 lakers it was KCP, rondo, Mcgee or Green, 2010 raptors it was Danny Green, etc.).
I'm simply saying that if we got 1 guy in our starting lineup who is meh, let's have it be the center. Because a) bigs get hurt more than guards/wings and b) we already have lots of star talent at the other 4 positions