SmartWentCrazy wrote:JonFromVA wrote:SmartWentCrazy wrote:
In a normal draft, where talent decreases exponentially? Sure. But in this draft, where the marginal difference amongst talent from pick 2-20 isnt great? Nope.
This draft has a superstar, franchise changer in Zion then a whole bunch of role players. Some may have more potential than others, but this is not the draft you want to be picking in the 2-7 range. Said another way, the #3 pick this year =/= the #3 from 2018 or 2017.
If you are correct, then the smart move would be to trade out of the draft and get a sure thing or a future pick; but even in a supposed 1-man draft like 2012 there were still 4 other All-Stars in the draft for teams able to identify them or lucky enough to stumble upon them.
I'm not going to say you're wrong, because only time will tell, but seems most people consider this at least a 3 player draft. Being considered a tier below Zion (who's have one of the best seasons ever for a freshman) is not necessarily a knock.
Alas, losing DraftExpress to ESPN's paywall is a big blow to public pre-draft evaluations ...
Kevin O’Connor from The Ringer summed it up well:
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/3/18/18270319/zion-williamson-tanking-nba-draft-lebron-james-anthony-davisThis will be a top-heavy draft class because of Zion. After him, it’s a mixed bag: Duke forward R.J. Barrett and Murray State guard Ja Morant have star potential but also come with worrisome flaws, like Barrett’s lack of feel for the game and Morant’s jumper. The draft is filled with good-not-great prospects like Vanderbilt guard Darius Garland, underwhelming elite high school recruits like Duke forward Cam Reddish, projected role players like Tennessee forward Grant Williams, and wild cards like Oregon center Bol Bol. Some players will blossom into stardom, as they always do—even the 2013 draft class, which was supposed to be historically bad, brought Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert into the NBA. Executives around the league agree that this draft plateaus around the fourth or fifth pick into the middle or late first round, but there is no consensus on the players that come after Williamson; one team’s fifth-ranked prospect might be 25th on another team’s board.
Williamson is on a draft board of one, though.
This years draft has a marginal difference in talent from picks 2 to ~20, IMO. RJ and Morant are atop that class, but they have very real and scary flaws. If RJ goes two and the Cavs have pick 3, I think they’d strongly consider trading for additional picks [including 2 lottery picks] than drafting another PG. This is the odd year that having more bites at the apple is more advantageous than one because the talent differentials really arent that great.
That's not how I read the reports you quoted at all. "Star potential with worrisome flaws" is pretty typical of most high-end prospects because they don't stick around long enough. Heck, if we wanted to nitpick, we could say Zion has some worrisome flaws too but he dominates with what he does have, so, we're happy.
But if bigger/stronger/faster NBA players can play off him and defend him with length around the rim and run out to contest his set shot, his lack of a jumper could become a bigger problem than Morant's.
Speaking of Morant ... he's clearly had a breakout season even if his 3pt% and competition level isn't where we'd like, but I don't recall him on anyone's radar this time last year after his freshman year.
It all comes down to talent & upside evaluation. So, maybe if Cam Reddish stays at Duke, he's the hottest prospect next year? Fans and media pundits are pretty poor at predicting this kind of thing so yeah, we see a lot of uncertainty. The NBA talent evaluators, otoh, if they want to be worth their pay had better find a way to cut through that uncertainty and be able to identify NBA talent and skills no matter how under-developed.
