Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 3 (Omicron & Delta Variants)

[Bad-Thoma]

This study seems to indicate that the vaccine will lower immunity in people who have acquired natural immunity by catching covid 19.
I do not have a medical background but would appreciate someone who has one breaking it down.


https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.22.436441v1.full

It doesn't say the vaccine will lower immunity, it's saying a second dose of the vaccine in previously infected individuals could lower the immunity level so more than one dose for previously infected people might not be necessary. I know you're not trying to be unreasonable but that is a huge difference from the way you stated it.

This is also an unpublished, non peer reviewed study so, while it's interesting and if true a good thing, it's too early to bank on it. If it is accurate it's still not in any way shape or form saying people who've had covid shouldn't get the first dose of the vaccine.

[andrewww]

Rand Paul lines up why people are pushed away from getting vaccinated. And defends Jonathan Isaac's right to make his own decision.

Edit: When you attempt to shout down or shut down dissenting opinion then some people will become suspicions of your motives and move away from your opinion rather that towards it. I am one of those people.

I have the pneumonia vaccine, have the flu vaccine, but nobody called me names for not getting them. When we lost my mother in law to covid in February I looked at the data and we decided the smartest thing my wife and I could do was to take of the weight and be more active (both 20+ lbs and counting and I walked almost 50 miles in the last week)

Don't call me a flat earther or assume I'm a redneck trump supporter or some anti-vaxer because I don't think I need the vaccine when I already had covid and my body handled it fine as the numbers told me it would. I am a effing senior database architect, I can read the data.

I don't understand what drives people to be so derogatory and denigrating on this issue but I'm telling you know it's not getting you anywhere.

/rant


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[Andrew McCeltic]

Sane but immoral.

Sane but wrong is a much better starting point than scared, uninformed and wrong.

Those two sets of adjectives are not contradictory.

Almost all anti-vaxxers greatly exaggerate the risks of vaccines. That error usually is associated with a very limited knowledge of relevant biology.

Maybe. But we **** on antivaxers without offering reassurance or accessible information, and forgetting that a lot of vaxed people mocking them don’t know **** about the science either.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Rand Paul lines up why people are pushed away from getting vaccinated. And defends Jonathan Isaac's right to make his own decision.

Edit: When you attempt to shout down or shut down dissenting opinion then some people will become suspicions of your motives and move away from your opinion rather that towards it. I am one of those people.

I have the pneumonia vaccine, have the flu vaccine, but nobody called me names for not getting them. When we lost my mother in law to covid in February I looked at the data and we decided the smartest thing my wife and I could do was to take of the weight and be more active (both 20+ lbs and counting and I walked almost 50 miles in the last week)

Don't call me a flat earther or assume I'm a redneck trump supporter or some anti-vaxer because I don't think I need the vaccine when I already had covid and my body handled it fine as the numbers told me it would. I am a effing senior database architect, I can read the data.

I don't understand what drives people to be so derogatory and denigrating on this issue but I'm telling you know it's not getting you anywhere.

/rant


[url]

Watch on YouTube

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Agree one hundred percent, should be clear from my posts. But is there any universe where I COULD convince you? Or are you as certain your medical and moral reasoning are probably “correct” as I am?

[Andrew McCeltic]

Just so as to not be construed as fake news, my estimate of 2/3rds of COVID deaths in australia being individuals over their average life expectancy was inaccurate. It's closer to 3/4 (N.B., This was part of a post I made in the Current Affairs forum in early August, hence the June numbers. I sincerely doubt the demographics have shifted since then.).



695/910 COVID Deaths in Australia have been people 80 or older. That is 76% of total Covid deaths since the pandemic began. 94% of COVID Deaths in Australia have been people 70 or older.

ETA - More, now than ever, spread love, not COVID, fam.

Helpful context, but does it matter? Pop-Pop was already 72, so, you know, I’m glad we had that barbecue.

Yeah, the does it matter is the tough question. I don't think we as a society do well with being confronted by our own mortality. I never share any of my thoughts in person lest I come off as incredibly cold. I'll never judge someone harshly for being passionately pro-covid vax because they want to reduce the risk their 55-, 65-, 75-... year-old, vaccinated parents might contract covid and die, because I get that impulse, and it's not one that would be comforted by letting them know that outcome is quite unlikely.

Different stokes - for context, my dad is late 60s, my mom is early 60s, and my paternal grandfather is early 90s. They've gotten various vaccines throughout their lives, though none of them have gotten the covid vaccine. I would say my father/grandfather are in exceptional shape for their ages. Although it goes against my mantra that it would seem vaccine is the way to go for anyone over 50, I'd never push it on them, particularly my grandfather - frankly, I admire he still walks a few miles every day into town, socializes for a few hours, and then gardens. I wouldn't say any of them have a particularly conspiratorial bent, though they definitely embody the spirit, "when it's your time to go, it's your time to go."

What’s your moral calculation? I think of my vaccination as a way to lower collective medical risk, get closer to herd immunity, and reduce the odds I transmit the virus to someone vulnerable.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Covid might cause Restless Anal Syndrome, if that changes any one’s risk assessment

https://m.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/covid-may-cause-restless-anal-syndrome-report-680582?fbclid=IwAR37NfItJYQRcCB95Js5qdQjwPj1bV4Wm6BH-ePWp9PEztifCw8RsY_9g0A

[Marley2Hendrix]

Helpful context, but does it matter? Pop-Pop was already 72, so, you know, I’m glad we had that barbecue.

Yeah, the does it matter is the tough question. I don't think we as a society do well with being confronted by our own mortality. I never share any of my thoughts in person lest I come off as incredibly cold. I'll never judge someone harshly for being passionately pro-covid vax because they want to reduce the risk their 55-, 65-, 75-... year-old, vaccinated parents might contract covid and die, because I get that impulse, and it's not one that would be comforted by letting them know that outcome is quite unlikely.

Different stokes - for context, my dad is late 60s, my mom is early 60s, and my paternal grandfather is early 90s. They've gotten various vaccines throughout their lives, though none of them have gotten the covid vaccine. I would say my father/grandfather are in exceptional shape for their ages. Although it goes against my mantra that it would seem vaccine is the way to go for anyone over 50, I'd never push it on them, particularly my grandfather - frankly, I admire he still walks a few miles every day into town, socializes for a few hours, and then gardens. I wouldn't say any of them have a particularly conspiratorial bent, though they definitely embody the spirit, "when it's your time to go, it's your time to go."

What’s your moral calculation? I think of my vaccination as a way to lower collective medical risk, get closer to herd immunity, and reduce the odds I transmit the virus to someone vulnerable.

Good question, and the answer is different now than in February/March (i.e., through my job, I could get vaccinated earlier than most in Minnesota). Then, it was to protect against spreading to elderly. Today, anyone over 50 or younger than 50 with multiple comorbidities have the opportunity to be vaccinated.

If I wasn't vaccinated, my employer requires it, and, again, I don't want to be restricted from travel. If those factors didn't exist, as a very healthy male in my 30s, I wouldn't get it today, but I don't fault anyone who does. Lastly, I had asymptomatic covid in late March of 2020. I got vaccinated the following year. The second dose had me quite sick for four days, and my resting heart rate of 52/53 increased to mid-80s, and it stayed there for five weeks. It took three months to get back to my baseline. I wasn't a fan of that, and, in October of 2021, I wouldn't do it, particularly given the vast majority of the vulnerable should be vaccinated.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Yeah, the does it matter is the tough question. I don't think we as a society do well with being confronted by our own mortality. I never share any of my thoughts in person lest I come off as incredibly cold. I'll never judge someone harshly for being passionately pro-covid vax because they want to reduce the risk their 55-, 65-, 75-... year-old, vaccinated parents might contract covid and die, because I get that impulse, and it's not one that would be comforted by letting them know that outcome is quite unlikely.

Different stokes - for context, my dad is late 60s, my mom is early 60s, and my paternal grandfather is early 90s. They've gotten various vaccines throughout their lives, though none of them have gotten the covid vaccine. I would say my father/grandfather are in exceptional shape for their ages. Although it goes against my mantra that it would seem vaccine is the way to go for anyone over 50, I'd never push it on them, particularly my grandfather - frankly, I admire he still walks a few miles every day into town, socializes for a few hours, and then gardens. I wouldn't say any of them have a particularly conspiratorial bent, though they definitely embody the spirit, "when it's your time to go, it's your time to go."

What’s your moral calculation? I think of my vaccination as a way to lower collective medical risk, get closer to herd immunity, and reduce the odds I transmit the virus to someone vulnerable.

Good question, and the answer is different now than in February/March (i.e., through my job, I could get vaccinated earlier than most in Minnesota). Then, it was to protect against spreading to elderly. Today, anyone over 50 or younger than 50 with multiple comorbidities have the opportunity to be vaccinated.

If I wasn't vaccinated, my employer requires it, and, again, I don't want to be restricted from travel. If those factors didn't exist, as a very healthy male in my 30s, I wouldn't get it today, but I don't fault anyone who does. Lastly, I had asymptomatic covid in late March of 2020. I got vaccinated the following year. The second dose had me quite sick for four days, and my resting heart rate of 52/53 increased to mid-80s, and it stayed there for five weeks. It took three months to get back to my baseline. I wasn't a fan of that, and, in October of 2021, I wouldn't do it, particularly given the vast majority of the vulnerable should be vaccinated.

You're mostly just explaining your medical calculation, though. Your moral calculation is that since anyone at high risk can now be vaccinated, you don't think low-risk people need to be - even with the possibility of break-through infection...?

[ajones9219]

It's not just the breakthrough infection. People to choosing to not get vaccinated directly leads to the virus mutating into worse variants. Eventually it will be one that we cant fight off.

[Curmudgeon]

I don't know anything about the science. I'm not a doctor or a microbiologist. But I have doctors: a cardiologist, a gastroenterologist and a primary care doctor. I have a spouse who is an optometrist, a niece who is a surgeon and nephew who is also a primary care physician. Four M.D.s live on my street. They all say everyone should get vaccinated as soon as possible and get the booster as soon possible.

So I'm assuming that at least one of them knows the science, just like I assume exculpatory does.

[ddb]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAoXGpBXoAAWB_N?format=jpg&name=small

[Marley2Hendrix]

What’s your moral calculation? I think of my vaccination as a way to lower collective medical risk, get closer to herd immunity, and reduce the odds I transmit the virus to someone vulnerable.

Good question, and the answer is different now than in February/March (i.e., through my job, I could get vaccinated earlier than most in Minnesota). Then, it was to protect against spreading to elderly. Today, anyone over 50 or younger than 50 with multiple comorbidities have the opportunity to be vaccinated.

If I wasn't vaccinated, my employer requires it, and, again, I don't want to be restricted from travel. If those factors didn't exist, as a very healthy male in my 30s, I wouldn't get it today, but I don't fault anyone who does. Lastly, I had asymptomatic covid in late March of 2020. I got vaccinated the following year. The second dose had me quite sick for four days, and my resting heart rate of 52/53 increased to mid-80s, and it stayed there for five weeks. It took three months to get back to my baseline. I wasn't a fan of that, and, in October of 2021, I wouldn't do it, particularly given the vast majority of the vulnerable should be vaccinated.

You're mostly just explaining your medical calculation, though. Your moral calculation is that since anyone at high risk can now be vaccinated, you don't think low-risk people need to be - even with the possibility of break-through infection...?

Sorry, I guess to be a bit more detailed, my primary work is violence risk assessment, particularly of men who have committed murders and violent sexual assaults. Generally, I'm tasked with ascribing a risk an individual will reoffend violently or sexually, not morally/philosophically whether the person ought to be released (N.B., This is much more complicated. I do believe the best restorative justice for a community is someone who has gone through extensive treatment, rehabilitation, and is then successful in the community; however, I also appreciate many find certain crimes so heinous/egregious, a person should never be released... I don't think it's worthwhile to share examples, and I'm not particularly inclined toward that view.). I mention this to highlight I'm statistically driven. For men with sexual offenses in Minnesota who have released from prison, take a moment to ponder what you think the percentage (10%, 20%, 50%, etc.?) is that reoffends. Based on that percentage, what level of restrictions should be in place and for how long?

Spoiler:

It's about 1.8-2.2%. In other words, one out of 50 reoffend. 49 out of 50 do not. How's that compare to what you imagine? Does it shape views on treatment length, community notification, supervision, etc.? Maybe, maybe not...

Now, back to your question, "Your moral calculation is that since anyone at high risk can now be vaccinated, you don't think low-risk people need to be - even with the possibility of break-through infection...?"

First, I think the use of "high risk" is troublesome without context. Same thought experiment - if you surveyed 10,000 americans and asked them to ascribe percentages that reflect "high risk," I don't think it would align with the .0287% of 85+, .0107% of 75-84%, the .0046% of 65-74, and the .0019% of 50-64 year old americans who have died of covid. These numbers include covid deaths since before the vaccine, which is reported to prevent severe covid cases; accordingly, it seems fair to assume that these numbers, if split to reflect pre-post mass vaccinations, are even lower...

Again, your question, ""Your moral calculation is that since anyone at high risk can now be vaccinated, you don't think low-risk people need to be - even with the possibility of break-through infection...?"

Based on these numbers, need to be, no. Should be forced to, absolutely not based on the numbers. My stance is with the current percent of the various age groups that already are vaccinated, combined with the likely underestimated incidence of COVID cases, particularly asymptomatic, through a combination of the vaccinated and natural immunity, they don't "need to" based on these numbers.

I'd say a compelling argument is hospital bed capacity issues, but, for time sake, I don't care to get into it.

It's not just the breakthrough infection. People to choosing to not get vaccinated directly leads to the virus mutating into worse variants. Eventually it will be one that we cant fight off.

I'm not certain this viewpoint is correct, but it's okay if it's your stance. It's not mine, and that's cool, homie.

Lastly, since yesterday, I have been looking for information on deaths/comorbidities, and it would appear 94% of total covid deaths in the U.S. have an average of 2.9 co-morbidities. From the CDC:

Percent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 42.5% (2017-2018)

Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 73.6% (2017-2018)

Frankly, I'm more concerned about this than the remaining vaccine hesitant group. Also, it underscores my feelings that anyone under 50 with zero comorbidities (which would appear to be a minority in this country) does not need to get vaccinated. That does not mean it's not a reasonable choice many will make/have made, which is more than cool with me.

To repeat myself, if we wanted all the anti-vaxers to die, we'd be anti-vaxers.

Statistically speaking, that statement makes no sense to me. A statically minute population of the anti-vaxer community will die of covid, forced vaccinated or not, particularly those under 50.

Lastly, I don't talk about this stuff in real life as I know my views are atypical. If genuine questions are asked, I'll reply, and I appreciate the curiosity. That said, I think I'll stick to creeping this board and occasionally chiming in with jokes and occasional trade/game thread posts. I'll reiterate, The Population Bomb/Man's Denial of Death are worthwhile reads. I think a fair, albeit cold concern is overpopulation and the increasing lifespan across the globe. I'd tend to think in 10 years, 20 years, 50 years, 100 years, etc., it's likely we will be faced with a virus event that is exponentially more dangerous to the elderly and 40-59 y/o group, and I have concern how the lasting memories of this pandemic event will have us more or less prepared for the next one. I think the tenants of transparency, no fear mongering/sensationalism (cough, https://preview.redd.it/lhpsrt9dfrq71.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=1e725de17812a1679e304cf051609e80379eb808 cough), and clearly articulating options and cost/benefit analysis is the way to go. I don't think that's how we have gone, which has contributed to an increasingly divided nation.

Again, spread love, not covid.

[Marley2Hendrix]

I don't know anything about the science. I'm not a doctor or a microbiologist. But I have doctors: a cardiologist, a gastroenterologist and a primary care doctor. I have a spouse who is an optometrist, a niece who is a surgeon and nephew who is also a primary care physician. Four M.D.s live on my street. They all say everyone should get vaccinated as soon as possible and get the booster as soon possible.

So I'm assuming that at least one of them knows the science, just like I assume exculpatory does.

Thanks for sharing, brother bear!

[GWVan]

Rand Paul lines up why people are pushed away from getting vaccinated. And defends Jonathan Isaac's right to make his own decision.

Edit: When you attempt to shout down or shut down dissenting opinion then some people will become suspicions of your motives and move away from your opinion rather that towards it. I am one of those people.

I have the pneumonia vaccine, have the flu vaccine, but nobody called me names for not getting them. When we lost my mother in law to covid in February I looked at the data and we decided the smartest thing my wife and I could do was to take of the weight and be more active (both 20+ lbs and counting and I walked almost 50 miles in the last week)

Don't call me a flat earther or assume I'm a redneck trump supporter or some anti-vaxer because I don't think I need the vaccine when I already had covid and my body handled it fine as the numbers told me it would. I am a effing senior database architect, I can read the data.

I don't understand what drives people to be so derogatory and denigrating on this issue but I'm telling you know it's not getting you anywhere.

/rant


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Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=ForbesBreakingNews[/url]

Agree one hundred percent, should be clear from my posts. But is there any universe where I COULD convince you? Or are you as certain your medical and moral reasoning are probably “correct” as I am?

I was planning on getting vaccinated, wasn't in a hurry but I'm not out in public that much, work from home and was exposed 4 times last year and isolated but never got it. I'm very careful as I'm the main contact to the world for my 85 year old Mother who I made an appointment for and drove both times to get the vaccine. I had early misgivings as the vaccine was rushed out but people don't seem to be dropping dead in the streets.

Then I caught the delta variant, took me out for the better part of a week. I know how this works, I have some good immunity now, maybe as good as or better than a vaccinated person. Still I planned to get the vaccine early next year as it is required for a cruise I've booked.

Then the president of the United States game out and mandated that I get a vaccine and called me names for not getting it so far, without regard for my particular situation. That immediately made me dig in my heals. I am a libertarian, if you are going to force me to do something for the public good then you better have rock solid evidence that I am a threat. If you want to test my antibodies and those of a large group of vaccinated people and I fall short then ok, but an unconditional mandate without regards for conditions is unacceptable.

To answer your question, you certainly can convince me. I am not certain in my medical reasoning by any means and continue to try to research. Last year I was responsible for a fraternal organization social club where the average age is 78 and I worked very hard to understand when and where to close, when to sanitize, when to require masks I feel like I did a good job and am confident the two people we lost to covid did not catch it in our club (both had serious underlying health issues and one would have not made it to 2021 no mater what he did) I will try to leave morality out of it because morality depends on your values and we don't all share the same values. Morality has also been used as an excuse to commit many of the worst atrocities in history.

I can be certainly convinced otherwise as I came into this week ready to schedule my shot and the tone of what I reading in my research on which shot to get and the reactions to the NBA players reasonable arguments has pushed me away. I'm now holding off and will wait until I am closer to the Dec 8th deadline as it appears the mandate is toothless as it relies on frontline supervisors to discipline people who do not comply.

I know my boss and situation and because I work exclusively from from home and choose not to reveal my personal medical information with my employer I do not expect disciplinary action to be that serious. That will be my position regardless of my decision to get vaccinated.

I have a unique perspective in arguments that become politicized as I am a true outside who generally despises both sides of our political debate. I hope that that clears my vision enough to make reasonable choices.

[Andrew McCeltic]

I’ve wondered how much having family/friends/neighbors who are medical people impacts vaccination.. like, my aunt is a nurse, truth’s mom is a nurse, my parents have friends who are doctors, it’s easy to trust when you know people who are credible..or when you’ve had enough grad training to know like, med school doesn’t **** around.

Also good to remember you can find bad or weak/speculative research, someone like Rob can tell the cream from the crap

[GWVan]

This study seems to indicate that the vaccine will lower immunity in people who have acquired natural immunity by catching covid 19.
I do not have a medical background but would appreciate someone who has one breaking it down.


https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.22.436441v1.full

It doesn't say the vaccine will lower immunity, it's saying a second dose of the vaccine in previously infected individuals could lower the immunity level so more than one dose for previously infected people might not be necessary. I know you're not trying to be unreasonable but that is a huge difference from the way you stated it.

This is also an unpublished, non peer reviewed study so, while it's interesting and if true a good thing, it's too early to bank on it. If it is accurate it's still not in any way shape or form saying people who've had covid shouldn't get the first dose of the vaccine.

Have you read studies that indicate the relative immune level of having recovered from covid vs getting vaccinated? I have seen some of the Israeli stuff but most of what I see is argument over the question itself. I believe it is a valid question and needs to be answered. It is particularly important to my situation. There needs to be a defined level of herd immunity where government have to give up their emergency powers. We are living under open ended emergency powers which is very very dangerous.

[Parliament10]

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[GWVan]

I don't know anything about the science. I'm not a doctor or a microbiologist. But I have doctors: a cardiologist, a gastroenterologist and a primary care doctor. I have a spouse who is an optometrist, a niece who is a surgeon and nephew who is also a primary care physician. Four M.D.s live on my street. They all say everyone should get vaccinated as soon as possible and get the booster as soon possible.

So I'm assuming that at least one of them knows the science, just like I assume exculpatory does.

My primary care said it's my personal decision and I'm smart enough to make it, I've been seeing him for 25 years. My urologist hasn't weighed in but he didn't make me wear a mask once I got into the little room with him because he already had the virus(I had not yet had covid). I do work with a former pharmacist who advised me to wait six months after recovering from the virus before getting the shot because the data was not in. While I respect the level of your medical community and their opinions I do not have that community and do not get the same advise.

[Curmudgeon]

LOL, ask your primary care whether or not he or she is vaccinated.

[GWVan]

Guidance is in from my employer

So I have 6 weeks (not enough time to find another job) to my first shot to make the deadline for an immunization that unlikely to increase my immunity and is designed to keep me from infecting coworkers I will never come in contact with with a virus I am not unlikely to catch again soon.

If I have an adverse reaction the pharmaceutical company has immunity from lawsuits.

I am then required to disclose my private health information to my employer on a third-party cloud-based tool.

Seems reasonable. Central planning always works so well.

Two weeks ago I didn’t care and was planning to get the shot eventually, now I’m furious.