Fultz vs. Tatum: What do you think now?

[VeryMuchWoke]

Him playing really well in October and November has nothing to do with Ainge's observations and information he had back in May.

You're forgetting to consider the information available to those skeptical of Ainge's claim. In June it was reasonable to think "I doubt he truly has Tatum at #1 because Fultz looks so damn good in P&Rs and he's consensus number 1 for a reason. He must just like Tatum enough that the pick more than makes up the difference, and this is just about PR".

Now, given what we've seen with Fultz (struggling) and Tatum (excelling), it's more likely now than ever that he truly had Tatum ahead of Fultz. It's still very likely that Ainge had #1-#4 very closely ranked (as he apparently did the previous January), and possible Ainge still had Fultz #1. That's a defensible viewpoint. What's not defensible is Simmons25's sentiment that "Instead Ainge literally fell onto a 4 leaf clover and they now try and convince themselves and the rest of the world that Tatum was Ainge's target all along."

I should have used the word "dismissive" instead of skeptical. One can be reasonable and still skeptical that Ainge had Tatum at #1, but not dismissive.

I agree with every part you said, except the bolded above and that's why I responded. If Tatum tore his ACL after Rozier's reckless alley-oop he wouldn't have excelled. However, that doesn't do anything to the order Ainge ranked those prospects in May(!), same for Fultz struggling due to suddenly being unable to shoot.

Of course Ainge didn't incorporate the future into his pre-draft assessments, but if you believe in his drafting ability at all then his pre draft assessments are positively correlated with future performance. Thus the relative performance of Tatum vs Fultz would increase the probability that Ainge did in fact have Tatum ahead of Fultz on his board. Now, if one is a Philly homer (not you) and thinks Ainge has no clue when it comes to the draft then you'd put that correlation as very low and wouldn't incorporate this new information into your guesses about his draft board.

[Writebloc]

Okay so now Fultz is rehabbing and practicing shooting left handed now...

http://uproxx.com/dimemag/markelle-fultz-left-handed-shooting-video-shoulder-injury-sixers/3/

Wait, what?

[Jingles]

I can't remember the last time there was this much weirdness surrounding a player. I'm excluding Royce White because he has a clinical anxiety disorder and there's no indication that anything like that is going on here. From a mysterious college leg injury to a mysterious shoulder injury here, plus whatever happened in his workout with the Celtics that clearly turned them off.

Something is also really off about how Philly handles...everything. Them and Fultz are a match made in basketball purgatory.

[SmartWentCrazy]

Yah, practicing shooting jumpers with the wrong hand isn’t normal. Something isn’t right here. Feels like I’m watching the basketball version of Rick Ankiel.

[SeizeCoup]

Okay so now Fultz is rehabbing and practicing shooting left handed now...

http://uproxx.com/dimemag/markelle-fultz-left-handed-shooting-video-shoulder-injury-sixers/3/

Wait, what?

That is amazing. What a strange series of events.

[Falstaff]

Ainge is certainly not scared to draft players which are ranked lower by the consensus, that's for sure, and I personally grade Danny Ainge as an average/slightly above average drafter.

Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum look like good picks, but last All-Star was Paul Pierce? Traded Joe Johnson really early, so don't think it's fair to count him.

For the record, Ainge took over in 2003. Pierce was drafted in 1998. Joe Johnson was drafted in 2001 and traded in 2002. Also, as others have noted: Rondo. It’s also worth mentioning that he picked up Al Jefferson at 15, who was the central piece of the KG trade.

[Fencer reregistered]

I'm starting to really like Tatum's interior passing.

[Bluewhale]

To be honest, Sixers handled rookie with injuries pretty well, Noel, Embiid, Simons.
The treatment PROCESS is pretty good.

What are the Sixers doing now for Fultz?

I know NBA typically did not intervene the team business. But I think NBA should do something now, before it's too late.

[Fidel Sarcasmo]

Is Fultz a headcase? Is that what it is that people are not talking about? Is it a taboo subject to say he's of fragile constitution? Is he buckling under the microscope? Making excuses? Inquiring minds want to know.

[Daddy 801]

I had Fultz as a bust. I liked the trade form day 1. I think it was the smartest move Ainge made all offseason.

[Jaqua92]

So Fultz is a lefty now

[ConstableGeneva]

He is future GOAT, what else did we expect?

Read on Twitter

[hickfromfrenchlick]

[grindtime22]

To be honest, Sixers handled rookie with injuries pretty well, Noel, Embiid, Simons.
The treatment PROCESS is pretty good.

What are the Sixers doing now for Fultz?

I know NBA typically did not intervene the team business. But I think NBA should do something now, before it's too late.

The Process is and has been over. Colangelo is going to make all that suffering add up to nothing at this rate.

[soxfan2003]

He is future GOAT, what else did we expect?

Read on Twitter

Tatum is having an excellent season for a rookie never mind a 19 year old rookie. Granted with so much attention on Kyrie, he ends up getting some wide open looks but he is converting at a super high rate on 3's.

But I still have a very tough time believing Tatum's overall impact will be as high as rookie Lebron's impact.

Lebron took a 17 win team to 35 wins as a rookie. Yes, his stats on offense didn't look efficient but he was by far the #1 option and he obviously contributed on defense for the Cavs to get that much better.

That being said, Tatum may end up playing at one of the highest levels for a teenager since Lebron....and that is great. Rookie Kyrie obviously scored but his defense wasn't there.

I was optimistic on Tatum developing into a player with NBA 3 point range -- not many players shoot college free throws at 85% --- but never in my wildest dreams did I think 11 games into the season would he shoot this well from NBA 3. Yes, he is getting a lot of good looks but even considering that draining them at the NBA level isn't easy. 5-10 more games of really good NBA 3 point shooting from Tatum and teams will have no choice but to take him seriously and that should open up the game for some other Celtics players to get higher quality looks.

[Kolkmania]

You're forgetting to consider the information available to those skeptical of Ainge's claim. In June it was reasonable to think "I doubt he truly has Tatum at #1 because Fultz looks so damn good in P&Rs and he's consensus number 1 for a reason. He must just like Tatum enough that the pick more than makes up the difference, and this is just about PR".

Now, given what we've seen with Fultz (struggling) and Tatum (excelling), it's more likely now than ever that he truly had Tatum ahead of Fultz. It's still very likely that Ainge had #1-#4 very closely ranked (as he apparently did the previous January), and possible Ainge still had Fultz #1. That's a defensible viewpoint. What's not defensible is Simmons25's sentiment that "Instead Ainge literally fell onto a 4 leaf clover and they now try and convince themselves and the rest of the world that Tatum was Ainge's target all along."

I should have used the word "dismissive" instead of skeptical. One can be reasonable and still skeptical that Ainge had Tatum at #1, but not dismissive.

I agree with every part you said, except the bolded above and that's why I responded. If Tatum tore his ACL after Rozier's reckless alley-oop he wouldn't have excelled. However, that doesn't do anything to the order Ainge ranked those prospects in May(!), same for Fultz struggling due to suddenly being unable to shoot.

Of course Ainge didn't incorporate the future into his pre-draft assessments, but if you believe in his drafting ability at all then his pre draft assessments are positively correlated with future performance. Thus the relative performance of Tatum vs Fultz would increase the probability that Ainge did in fact have Tatum ahead of Fultz on his board. Now, if one is a Philly homer (not you) and thinks Ainge has no clue when it comes to the draft then you'd put that correlation as very low and wouldn't incorporate this new information into your guesses about his draft board.

Fair enough, I disagree with the possitive correlation between pre-draft assessments and future performances. Too many factors and context to say that it's more likely that Ainge had Tatum at 1 because Tatum had the best first month in the NBA out of his rookie class.

For the record, I didn't say Ainge had Tatum way lower, just that I'm skeptical he had him #1 and the above reasoning to think so is just plain wrong to me.

[DK-All Day]

Never doubt Ainge again. He’s right until he’s proven wrong.

[ConstableGeneva]

List of teenagers who averaged 14+ ppg, 6+ rpg, and 60+ TS% in their rookie season -- hasn't been done.

Very early, but Jayson Tatum (14.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 64.4 TS%) is on pace to be the first. With his role, playing time, and the system Celtics run, it's not inconceivable that he could maintain those numbers, even raise his averages.

[cloverleaf]

Ainge is certainly not scared to draft players which are ranked lower by the consensus, that's for sure, and I personally grade Danny Ainge as an average/slightly above average drafter.

Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum look like good picks, but last All-Star was Paul Pierce? Traded Joe Johnson really early, so don't think it's fair to count him.

For the record, Ainge took over in 2003. Pierce was drafted in 1998. Joe Johnson was drafted in 2001 and traded in 2002. Also, as others have noted: Rondo. It’s also worth mentioning that he picked up Al Jefferson at 15, who was the central piece of the KG trade.

Danny had some good early years (not counting the very first season he came in late too), then a decidedly more mixed spell for a few years, and he's been back to pretty great the last few years. He and the C's in his time haven't been the best in the league, but they've been in the top quintile, I'd say, overall.

[Kolkmania]

List of teenagers who averaged 14+ ppg, 6+ rpg, and 60+ TS% in their rookie season -- hasn't been done.

Very early, but Jayson Tatum (14.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 64.4 TS%) is on pace to be the first. With his role, playing time, and the system Celtics run, it's not inconceivable that he could maintain those numbers, even raise his averages.

You think his .529 3PT% is sustainable while having a .333 3PAr? Although he's getting assisted for > 93% of his attempts, that seems really unlikely.