Slartibartfast wrote:Gomes3PC wrote:Slartibartfast wrote:
Feel and court awareness are definitely important but those aren't the only ingredients needed for PNR play.
If Tatum can extend his off-the-dribble jump-shot range to 3 that's a big step towards being a legit focal point. I'm not sold there.
An even bigger problem for his PNR game is the combo of how high and loose his dribble is with his lack of top shelf perimeter quickness. We saw Ray Allen essentially disappear as a PNR playmaker once he lost his quickness despite being an awesome off the dribble shooter because he couldn't turn the corner on traps and, while a solid ballhandler and passer, he wasn't dynamic enough to split or make the right passes.
You can see this in how he attacks in perimeter isos - he doesn't want a pick (other than in dribble hand off situations to get a switch or attack on the move) because it brings an extra defender and it doesn't play to his strengths. Instead he uses crossover or jab stebs until he gets the defender off balance (or if they are quicker and can pressure his handle, he backs them down into more comfortable range) and then attacks. It's very deliberate and doesn't translate to the rapid-fire dynamism of PNR play.
I understand some of those concerns, and he needs to prove it, but I'd just say that he seems to have great court understanding overall in limited action so far and at 19 he is so far from a finished product it's hard to assess. Look how far Avery Bradley's handle improved from the outset. Also, off-the-bounce 3s are important for guards in the P&R but less essential for a wing running it. He needs to learn the feel of how to defeat the extra defender P&R brings, but it takes time and reps to do that. Paul George was ATROCIOUS in P&R coming into the league and had similar issues of a high handle and questionable off-the-bounce shooting.
It comes down to projection I guess. It's early, but I've already seen more from Tatum in his hoop instincts than I have ever seen from Jaylen. That's not a hate on Jaylen, just that I think with the right coaching Tatum can be an order of magnitude better offensive playmaker. It took Pierce time to do more than attack the rim and jack up 3s, as did it for PG-13, but if Tatum does get his shot to grow into the role, I think he can do it.
I don't think it's a lock by any means, I do have more confidence of it now seeing him in summer league. He showed more first step explosion than I thought he had (still not elite, but good enough), he understands angles, and he understands how to get guys off balance. Those are critical. He has the tool set to beat his man in an iso, set defense. From there, whether he becomes a true star or just a good iso scorer likely comes down to his work ethic and coaching. He will get the latter, whether he has the former is TBD I suppose.
PG I think had the opposite problem as Tatum in that he had great quickness/burst and excellent range but he wasn't all that polished especially after playing crappy competition in college.
Tatum's been playing top competition for a long time. He's been honing his game for a long time. I don't think his PNR limitations stem from the same source.
I'd argue against that. Very few 19 year old wings have faced top competition for "a long time" as the P&R handler. And at Duke, he (A) missed a bunch of games due to injury and (B) played in an offense where P&R was dominated by their guards, particularly Grayson Allen and Frank Jackson. I believe I read somewhere that Tatum was actually used as the roll man more than the handler in P&R last year, which is kind of nuts given how poorly most bigs defend handlers in college.
Generally speaking, Coach K just doesn't have his wings/bigs control the action much unless they are a low post guy like Okafor or Sheldon Williams. Even Jabari Parker got most of his looks in college from the high post rather than as a handler at the top of the key. I didn't see Tatum a lot in AAU so have no idea how he was used. Would not surprise me at all if he were on a team where he was the star and they just let him iso ball / post up, as that's certainly where he feels most comfortable. Rarely do AAU teams force a guy to expand their game - they're usually glorified hero-ball teams that just let the star on their team do what they are best at already.
Now, I will say conversely that Tatum benefited by playing in that Duke system in the post and using his superior footwork and skill to defeat subpar college bigs. That advantage dissipates in the NBA. He's going to have to adjust to defeat fast SFs or athletic PFs despite non-elite athleticism himself. I think he's flashing he can do that, but more to prove when he faces off against truly elite wing defenders. Good news is guys like Smart, Crowder and Brown are exactly the types to learn against in practice and preseason.
I guess my overarching point is that from what I've seen of Tatum, it's too soon to tell on the P&R. He clearly doesn't have it yet, but I don't see much suggesting with time he can't add it as a part of his game. A guy like Jaylen I will never see dominating there as I don't think he has the court vision to work through defeating the extra defender that P&R brings. Tatum gets that spacing dynamic and knows how to use his skills to win when he has a size mismatch or speed mismatch. Developing a quicker release off the bounce will be huge, as will finding ways to create space off the bounce rather than in iso, but if he works as hard as the staff says, I think he'll develop at least one of those (my guess is the jumper more than the elite blow-by skill).
The biggest thing the staff has to do is get him away from being "lazy" and settling for a hard midrange jumper, which he's actually good at converting. That's a great last-resort skill but if you make it your go-to, you're still inefficient. That's a habit thing and I'd imagine Stevens will harp on it from day one. I've already seen the staff talking to him after passing up open 3s to take mid range jumpers, so it's likely already being coached out of him.
EDIT - checked DX and his P&R % of possessions was a paltry 4.4%. Maybe that's because he's not good (he wasn't in those limited touches) but that's such a small number it suggests he's more of a blank slate there than a guy who can't develop it IMO.
