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What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#581 » by Fencer reregistered » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:07 am

Homerclease wrote:In 3 years time you are looking at Tatum, Luka, Giannis, Zion and AD as your top 5 players in this league. Tatum has entered that stratosphere IMO


I'd put him at that level as a plausible ceiling rather than a confident prediction.

But it sure is looking more plausible than it previously did.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#582 » by VeryMuchWoke » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:27 am

Fencer reregistered wrote:
Homerclease wrote:In 3 years time you are looking at Tatum, Luka, Giannis, Zion and AD as your top 5 players in this league. Tatum has entered that stratosphere IMO


I'd put him at that level as a plausible ceiling rather than a confident prediction.

But it sure is looking more plausible than it previously did.


I don't know if you guys are watching something different or if you're afraid of being homers but he's already there. Against the East we have the best player against any team, except arguably the Bucks. While Giannis is a regular season beast and for sure better than Tatum over 82, but he has major weaknesses come playoff time.

In the West:
Lebron is better (for now)
Kawhi is better but has health concerns and can't play at his peak at all times
Harden is slightly better.
Luka about even (better offensively, but worse defensively)

Dame is on a heater right now, but I'm not a prisoner of the moment. He's going to be top 3, most likely, and definitely top 5 for his prime. The number of guys on his level offensively can fit on one hand and he's better on D than 1/2 of them. 3 of those guys are past their peak or at the tail end of it.


EDIT: I forgot to account for the injured guys, KD and Steph, but both those guys are 30+, one is just 6', and the other is coming off a major injury. (I expect KD/Steph to be top 10 players next year, but not top 5).
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#583 » by 3D Chess » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:32 am

^ facts.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#584 » by hickfromfrenchlick » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:32 am

Tatum’s ceiling:

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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#585 » by fallguy » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:37 am

Cuban Pete wrote:Tatum is a player you build your team around. The Cs better lock him up ASAP. If Tatum bolts in FA, this team is doomed for the next 5-6 years. Perhaps longer.


This is fantastic.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#586 » by Shak_Celts » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:09 am

KGboss wrote:Superstar

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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#587 » by Fencer reregistered » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:15 am

VeryMuchWoke wrote:
Fencer reregistered wrote:
Homerclease wrote:In 3 years time you are looking at Tatum, Luka, Giannis, Zion and AD as your top 5 players in this league. Tatum has entered that stratosphere IMO


I'd put him at that level as a plausible ceiling rather than a confident prediction.

But it sure is looking more plausible than it previously did.


I don't know if you guys are watching something different or if you're afraid of being homers but he's already there. Against the East we have the best player against any team, except arguably the Bucks. While Giannis is a regular season beast and for sure better than Tatum over 82, but he has major weaknesses come playoff time.

In the West:
Lebron is better (for now)
Kawhi is better but has health concerns and can't play at his peak at all times
Harden is slightly better.
Luka about even (better offensively, but worse defensively)

Dame is on a heater right now, but I'm not a prisoner of the moment. He's going to be top 3, most likely, and definitely top 5 for his prime. The number of guys on his level offensively can fit on one hand and he's better on D than 1/2 of them. 3 of those guys are past their peak or at the tail end of it.


EDIT: I forgot to account for the injured guys, KD and Steph, but both those guys are 30+, one is just 6', and the other is coming off a major injury. (I expect KD/Steph to be top 10 players next year, but not top 5).


What I think you're overlooking, or at least glossing over, is consistency. Any guy can, for a while, play above his true level. Tatum is playing at a superstar level, as you say. But he's been doing so for how many games? Is it 30 yet? His proven ceiling is his current level of play, or a little better, with a superstar's consistency. (I.e., if he has a streak of playing more than a few games well below that level, it would be noteworthy.) And he has to do this against the increasingly targeted scheming he'll face, a major example of which was that he had to learn to beat early doubleteams this season.

I hope he achieves that, but it's far from certain.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#588 » by PierceFan4ever » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:25 am

Hopefully nobody brings up Paul George because I think Tatum is arguably as good as peak Paul George. And yeah I know he had that year where he was 3rd in mvp but who cares he got his ass kicked by Lillard in 5 games and then the previous playoffs he got embarrassed by Joe Ingles in the first round. Tatum already starting off with 2 monster games in the playoffs.

Ceiling wise? No idea but to me he has best player in the league potential. Maybe not possibly stat wise but impact wise for sure.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#589 » by VeryMuchWoke » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:52 am

Fencer reregistered wrote:
VeryMuchWoke wrote:
Fencer reregistered wrote:
I'd put him at that level as a plausible ceiling rather than a confident prediction.

But it sure is looking more plausible than it previously did.


I don't know if you guys are watching something different or if you're afraid of being homers but he's already there. Against the East we have the best player against any team, except arguably the Bucks. While Giannis is a regular season beast and for sure better than Tatum over 82, but he has major weaknesses come playoff time.

In the West:
Lebron is better (for now)
Kawhi is better but has health concerns and can't play at his peak at all times
Harden is slightly better.
Luka about even (better offensively, but worse defensively)

Dame is on a heater right now, but I'm not a prisoner of the moment. He's going to be top 3, most likely, and definitely top 5 for his prime. The number of guys on his level offensively can fit on one hand and he's better on D than 1/2 of them. 3 of those guys are past their peak or at the tail end of it.


EDIT: I forgot to account for the injured guys, KD and Steph, but both those guys are 30+, one is just 6', and the other is coming off a major injury. (I expect KD/Steph to be top 10 players next year, but not top 5).


What I think you're overlooking, or at least glossing over, is consistency. Any guy can, for a while, play above his true level. Tatum is playing at a superstar level, as you say. But he's been doing so for how many games? Is it 30 yet? His proven ceiling is his current level of play, or a little better, with a superstar's consistency. (I.e., if he has a streak of playing more than a few games well below that level, it would be noteworthy.) And he has to do this against the increasingly targeted scheming he'll face, a major example of which was that he had to learn to beat early doubleteams this season.

I hope he achieves that, but it's far from certain.


I don't buy that. This is not Jordan Crawford winning EC player of the week. Tatum's been a clear beast of a scorer since Chaminade. He was the guy on an EC team as a rookie. The superstar level he's at is not some anomaly, it's consistent with how guys tend to improve in the league, slow at times and then bang.

Now, might he have a **** series this year where he gets utterly shut down and we get swept? It's possible. It's happened to some of the best players early in their careers (It happened to Giannis last year), but I don't think it's very likely, and you can be damn sure he'll be in the gym addressing whatever weaknesses were exploited.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#590 » by ConstableGeneva » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:49 pm

I missed this somehow...
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#591 » by CeltsfaninDC » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:52 pm

VeryMuchWoke wrote:
Fencer reregistered wrote:
Homerclease wrote:In 3 years time you are looking at Tatum, Luka, Giannis, Zion and AD as your top 5 players in this league. Tatum has entered that stratosphere IMO


I'd put him at that level as a plausible ceiling rather than a confident prediction.

But it sure is looking more plausible than it previously did.


I don't know if you guys are watching something different or if you're afraid of being homers but he's already there. Against the East we have the best player against any team, except arguably the Bucks. While Giannis is a regular season beast and for sure better than Tatum over 82, but he has major weaknesses come playoff time.

In the West:
Lebron is better (for now)
Kawhi is better but has health concerns and can't play at his peak at all times
Harden is slightly better.
Luka about even (better offensively, but worse defensively)

Dame is on a heater right now, but I'm not a prisoner of the moment. He's going to be top 3, most likely, and definitely top 5 for his prime. The number of guys on his level offensively can fit on one hand and he's better on D than 1/2 of them. 3 of those guys are past their peak or at the tail end of it.


EDIT: I forgot to account for the injured guys, KD and Steph, but both those guys are 30+, one is just 6', and the other is coming off a major injury. (I expect KD/Steph to be top 10 players next year, but not top 5).


One of the things that elevates Kawhi over those other three is his defense. And Tatum is starting to play ELITE defense as well. Harden is a matador, Luka is not far behind and LeBron is on the decline. Its his defense to go along with his offense that will propel him to the top of those listings. Also, Giannis has a ton of flaws on both ends. The main thing is that his outside shooting is abysmal which means you can defend him like the Magic did the other night and build a human wall at the FT line. Tatum will take you outside, drive to the basket, make the right pass and score from anywhere. If I had a complaint about Tatum right now it would be that I'd like them to have him watch tapes of great passers and add that to his game. As he begins to see more Dame-like doubles he'll need to be able to get the ball to the open guys.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#592 » by 24istheLAW » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:57 pm

Giannis can't shoot, but "a ton of flaws at both ends"? The dude is arguably the DPOY.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#593 » by hugepatsfan » Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:03 pm

Since the 80s when Magic/Bird came into the league, basically all of the championships have been won by top 30ish players of all time. Not an exact science, but ESPN did a top 74 players list and if you go back to Magic's 1st title in 1980, only that random 03-04 Pistons team win a title without a top 31 player from the list (Isaiah Thomas with the Bad Boys was #31). For comparison, KG was #20 and there were only a few teams in the last 40 years that had a lower ranked #1 player as their top guy (Wade in his pre-Lebron title since Shaq was older, Kawhi with the Raptors, Isaiah with the bad boy teams).

I think Tatum might be able to be the best player on a championship team. Based on the context above, you can see that's pretty special.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#594 » by ConstableGeneva » Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:04 pm

What's scary is he's already putting up this type of numbers and making such an impact on both ends while still having a ton of room to improve -- facilitating/passing, strength/finishing, getting to the FT line more, gaining the respect of the refs, growing a proper beard, etc.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#595 » by sam_I_am » Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:11 pm

Tatum is a great shooter but he is not an unstoppable scorer going to the rim like Giannis or some of the other top players. He is also not great at finding the open guy so that defenses that double him get punished. He is making strides in that direction but needs to get there to compare to Giannis or players that good. No way if you trade Tatum for GA straight up that Milwaukee plays like a 70 win team.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#596 » by ConstableGeneva » Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:25 pm

Yep, Giannis doesn't need a Theis to seal potential challengers at the rim to finish with ease. One thing that has seemed to improve in-season for Tatum has been his floater game. And it's been a weapon against Embiid camping in the paint.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#597 » by 24istheLAW » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:03 pm

PierceFan4ever wrote:Hopefully nobody brings up Paul George because I think Tatum is arguably as good as peak Paul George. And yeah I know he had that year where he was 3rd in mvp but who cares he got his ass kicked by Lillard in 5 games and then the previous playoffs he got embarrassed by Joe Ingles in the first round. Tatum already starting off with 2 monster games in the playoffs.

Ceiling wise? No idea but to me he has best player in the league potential. Maybe not possibly stat wise but impact wise for sure.


Am I the only person who finds this shocking?

I would have told you, at any point over his first two seasons, that I think Jayson's ceiling is something like Paul George. Maybe better, but the same CATEGORY of star player. Great defender and shooter, not a great ballhandler, not necessarily a slasher or passer. But whose strength is they can fit next to all kind of other players, and who maybe one day will make a great Robin to someone's Batman.

It legit never occurred to me that he'd turn into an efficient 30 ppg scorer who rains threes off the dribble.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#598 » by MagicBagley18 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:11 pm

PierceFan4ever wrote:Hopefully nobody brings up Paul George because I think Tatum is arguably as good as peak Paul George. And yeah I know he had that year where he was 3rd in mvp but who cares he got his ass kicked by Lillard in 5 games and then the previous playoffs he got embarrassed by Joe Ingles in the first round. Tatum already starting off with 2 monster games in the playoffs.

Ceiling wise? No idea but to me he has best player in the league potential. Maybe not possibly stat wise but impact wise for sure.


He also took the lebron heat 7 games
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#599 » by Slax » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:47 pm

24istheLAW wrote:
PierceFan4ever wrote:Hopefully nobody brings up Paul George because I think Tatum is arguably as good as peak Paul George. And yeah I know he had that year where he was 3rd in mvp but who cares he got his ass kicked by Lillard in 5 games and then the previous playoffs he got embarrassed by Joe Ingles in the first round. Tatum already starting off with 2 monster games in the playoffs.

Ceiling wise? No idea but to me he has best player in the league potential. Maybe not possibly stat wise but impact wise for sure.


Am I the only person who finds this shocking?

I would have told you, at any point over his first two seasons, that I think Jayson's ceiling is something like Paul George. Maybe better, but the same CATEGORY of star player. Great defender and shooter, not a great ballhandler, not necessarily a slasher or passer. But whose strength is they can fit next to all kind of other players, and who maybe one day will make a great Robin to someone's Batman.

It legit never occurred to me that he'd turn into an efficient 30 ppg scorer who rains threes off the dribble.

I think we saw two huge developments that completely changed his trajectory. First was suddenly adding an ability to create his own three point shot with those side steps, step backs, and pull ups, which allowed him to transition from being an efficient low volume catch-and-shoot scorer off the ball to an efficient high volume scorer. He takes a lot more three point attempts today, but comparatively not that many more two point attempts or free throws, so that's been the biggest improvement in his scoring and playmaking. Second was his massive increase in physical size (height, weight, strength) without loss of quickness, which has helped him to finish stronger on drives without losing the ball, and also means you almost never have to worry about mismatches on defense. By comparison, most of the other ways he improved are the types of things I think of as normal skill and conditioning development for younger players.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#600 » by PierceFan4ever » Thu Aug 20, 2020 6:06 pm

MagicBagley18 wrote:
PierceFan4ever wrote:Hopefully nobody brings up Paul George because I think Tatum is arguably as good as peak Paul George. And yeah I know he had that year where he was 3rd in mvp but who cares he got his ass kicked by Lillard in 5 games and then the previous playoffs he got embarrassed by Joe Ingles in the first round. Tatum already starting off with 2 monster games in the playoffs.

Ceiling wise? No idea but to me he has best player in the league potential. Maybe not possibly stat wise but impact wise for sure.


He also took the lebron heat 7 games


During that season PG averaged 17 ppg and then averaged 19 ppg for the conference finals. That was a team effort

Paul George playoff success has been pretty bad lately which is why I see Tatum’s ceiling far higher cause I think he’s as good as peak PG whatever year that is. I am taking him with ease this season for sure.

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