What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling?

[jmr07019]

Last year Jaylen shot 70% from 0-3 feet. Here are some top players for their careers:

Durant - 73%
LeBron - 73%
Giannis - 72%
Butler - 65%
George - 63%
Kawhi - 70%

Brown is at 65% for his career although has improved every year in this category. Reasonable to project him as an elite finisher inside.

In addition to the improvements as a passer and playmaker his mid range game looks MUCH better this year. In the past you really didn't want him taking mid range shots. Now they might not be such a bad shot for us. Definitely something I am keeping an eye on. Adding these 2 things to his game makes him much harder to guard

[Fencer reregistered]

Last year Jaylen shot 70% from 0-3 feet. Here are some top players for their careers:

Durant - 73%
LeBron - 73%
Giannis - 72%
Butler - 65%
George - 63%
Kawhi - 70%

Brown is at 65% for his career although has improved every year in this category. Reasonable to project him as an elite finisher inside.

In addition to the improvements as a passer and playmaker his mid range game looks MUCH better this year. In the past you really didn't want him taking mid range shots. Now they might not be such a bad shot for us. Definitely something I am keeping an eye on. Adding these 2 things to his game makes him much harder to guard

Conjectures:

1. Jaylen's fraction of 0-3 foot shots that were in transition was a lot higher than those other guys'.
2. His success rate in halfcourt was markedly lower than theirs.

[BostonCouchGM]

Jaylen should be running around/thru traffic, curling off screens, going baseline to baseline, essentially what Ray Allen used to do. If you move Jaylen around it's going to create a mismatches above and beyond what he normally has, that I trust him to take advantage of. Brad has had him standing stationary outside the 3 pt line since he was drafted. We need more posts, more catch and one dribble drives and less standing around or dribbling more than once, from Jaylen. Play to his strengths. Not doing this is a major reason why I feel Brad is a system coach. He has Jaylen and his replacements doing the same thing despite them having massive talent disparities. Brad holds Jaylen back as much as his terrible handle and BBIQ does.

[jmr07019]

Last year Jaylen shot 70% from 0-3 feet. Here are some top players for their careers:

Durant - 73%
LeBron - 73%
Giannis - 72%
Butler - 65%
George - 63%
Kawhi - 70%

Brown is at 65% for his career although has improved every year in this category. Reasonable to project him as an elite finisher inside.

In addition to the improvements as a passer and playmaker his mid range game looks MUCH better this year. In the past you really didn't want him taking mid range shots. Now they might not be such a bad shot for us. Definitely something I am keeping an eye on. Adding these 2 things to his game makes him much harder to guard

Conjectures:

1. Jaylen's fraction of 0-3 foot shots that were in transition was a lot higher than those other guys'.
2. His success rate in halfcourt was markedly lower than theirs.

Fair points. Can Jaylen keep his percentages up as the role changes and FGAs go up? So far he's shooting a totally sustainable 82% at that distance. While I don't expect him to ever be Giannis / LeBron level of scorer in that area I do think he will continue to excel scoring inside and don't think his percentages will fall off much if it all.

[keevsnick1]

Jaylen should be running around/thru traffic, curling off screens, going baseline to baseline, essentially what Ray Allen used to do. If you move Jaylen around it's going to create a mismatches above and beyond what he normally has, that I trust him to take advantage of. Brad has had him standing stationary outside the 3 pt line since he was drafted. We need more posts, more catch and one dribble drives and less standing around or dribbling more than once, from Jaylen. Play to his strengths. Not doing this is a major reason why I feel Brad is a system coach. He has Jaylen and his replacements doing the same thing despite them having massive talent disparities. Brad holds Jaylen back as much as his terrible handle and BBIQ does.

No, you need literally the exact opposite! Jaylen has been awesome as a pick an roll ball handler this year. When he's out there without Tatum, especially in second unit heavy lineups he should be running a pick and roll or receiving a dribble handoff literally every time own the court. He's one of the few Celtics players who can create an advantage off the dribble, and if he can continue to make the right reads out of the pnr the Celtics offense will be better with him handling the ball.

[Floody100]

Brad holds Jaylen back as much as his terrible handle and BBIQ does.

Averaging 3.7 assists with only 1.3 turnovers this season as the second option ...
Tatum at the moment averaging 3 assists & 3.3 turnovers & you say nothing about his handles.

I’ve said it before but your hatred for Jaylen is beyond laughable.

[ballup]

At 24 years of age, Jaylen makes me wonder if he can continue improving his feel of the game. That's not something limited by athletic ability, but at the same time, it comes down whether you "get it".

There was a fast break on Sunday where Jaylen and Theis were on a 2 on 3, defense was back peddling. Theis goes for the Theis box out but Jaylen fakes left into his right. This made an awkward attempt at a split and caused a turnover because he couldn't squeeze through. Maybe he intentionally made the risky move, but I get more of the sense that Jaylen may be relying on specific dribble moves as the game still hasn't fully slowed down for him. He should have faked going right into the left.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

[Fencer reregistered]

Jaylen should be running around/thru traffic, curling off screens, going baseline to baseline, essentially what Ray Allen used to do. If you move Jaylen around it's going to create a mismatches above and beyond what he normally has, that I trust him to take advantage of. Brad has had him standing stationary outside the 3 pt line since he was drafted. We need more posts, more catch and one dribble drives and less standing around or dribbling more than once, from Jaylen. Play to his strengths. Not doing this is a major reason why I feel Brad is a system coach. He has Jaylen and his replacements doing the same thing despite them having massive talent disparities. Brad holds Jaylen back as much as his terrible handle and BBIQ does.

No, you need literally the exact opposite! Jaylen has been awesome as a pick an roll ball handler this year. When he's out there without Tatum, especially in second unit heavy lineups he should be running a pick and roll or receiving a dribble handoff literally every time own the court. He's one of the few Celtics players who can create an advantage off the dribble, and if he can continue to make the right reads out of the pnr the Celtics offense will be better with him handling the ball.

Some thoughts:
-- Jaylen seems to be shining in the early going as a PnR ball-handler.
-- He really does seem to be good at creating his own good 2-pt shots. No need for screens and so on to help him with those.
-- The old Reggie Miller/Richard Hamilton/Ray Allen multi-screen actions are switched a lot more effectively nowadays than they used to be. If BCGM's general point that Jaylen can only hit wide-open shots is correct, these shouldn't be run for him.
-- But if BCGM is wrong about that, then he can be right about those actions being good for Jaylen. Jaylen on the move with the ball in his hands with a little separation or against a partial mismach? I'll take that as a great start to the NEXT action, likely to be a good mid-range 2-pt shot or a kick-out if the defense converges.

[keevsnick1]

Jaylen should be running around/thru traffic, curling off screens, going baseline to baseline, essentially what Ray Allen used to do. If you move Jaylen around it's going to create a mismatches above and beyond what he normally has, that I trust him to take advantage of. Brad has had him standing stationary outside the 3 pt line since he was drafted. We need more posts, more catch and one dribble drives and less standing around or dribbling more than once, from Jaylen. Play to his strengths. Not doing this is a major reason why I feel Brad is a system coach. He has Jaylen and his replacements doing the same thing despite them having massive talent disparities. Brad holds Jaylen back as much as his terrible handle and BBIQ does.

No, you need literally the exact opposite! Jaylen has been awesome as a pick an roll ball handler this year. When he's out there without Tatum, especially in second unit heavy lineups he should be running a pick and roll or receiving a dribble handoff literally every time own the court. He's one of the few Celtics players who can create an advantage off the dribble, and if he can continue to make the right reads out of the pnr the Celtics offense will be better with him handling the ball.

Some thoughts:
-- Jaylen seems to be shining in the early going as a PnR ball-handler.
-- He really does seem to be good at creating his own good 2-pt shots. No need for screens and so on to help him with those.
-- The old Reggie Miller/Richard Hamilton/Ray Allen multi-screen actions are switched a lot more effectively nowadays than they used to be. If BCGM's general point that Jaylen can only hit wide-open shots is correct, these shouldn't be run for him.
-- But if BCGM is wrong about that, then he can be right about those actions being good for Jaylen. Jaylen on the move with the ball in his hands with a little separation or against a partial mismach? I'll take that as a great start to the NEXT action, likely to be a good mid-range 2-pt shot or a kick-out if the defense converges.

To be clear, I have no doubt the actions BCGM describes would be good for Jaylen, Jaylen has proven he can do all those things at an elite or near elite level. My disagreement is on BCGM's contention that those actions are ALL Jaylen can do. We've seen, in a small sample, that Jaylen can indeed handle, distribute and score the ball. We have a limited amount of guys on the team who can do all three. So you gotta continue to run plays for Jaylen and see what he can do in that regards.

Some posters here confused having not done something at a high frequency with being completely unable to do something. Last year Jaylen has a role that didn't ask him to operate on ball, because there were guys that were better at it than him. But he's young and has improved in every aspect he's set out to, and we no longer have clearly better options. So feed jaylen and seen what you got, ultimately it will help the team long term and maybe short term.

[hugepatsfan]

Some very encouraging signs this year from him. His usage is at 28.7%, higher than last year's 24.7%. His TOV% is 5.5%, which is half of what his career levels were at entering the year. His assist % is 16.7%, almost double his career rate. He's handling the ball more and creating for others better than he has ever shown, all while turning the ball over less. That's awesome.

It's a very small sample size. He still looks clunky when handling the ball to me in the P&R - there's not a natural smoothness to his handles. I'm still skeptical that he can maintain the high level he's played to so far in that department, but you have to acknowledge improvement. Kemba and Hayward being out has thrust him into a different offensive role and so far he's thriving in the opportunity.

His 3 point attempts per game are down but like 25% vs last year. Makes sense as he's more a catch and shoot guy vs an off the dribble shooter from deep. His percentage so far is poor (26.7%) but over the prior 3 years he's shot 37.5% and even accounting for the rookie year where his shot was a work in progress he's a career 36.9% shooter. I see no reason he won't even out to a ~37%+ shooter.

He's doubled his career frequency of shots by percentage of overall attempts from 10-16 feet, and also close to doubled his career fg% on them. I'm concerned that's not sustainable. Looks like he's incorporated more floaters from 3-10 feet vs always trying to get right at the rim and just using blunt force vs more nuanced skill. That added touch is helping his overall FG% inside as well.

In general we're just seeing him move away from reliance on athleticism to more developed skills. It's been a continuous progression for that for his career and this year so far has been another leap.

The key for him is that this won't go unnoticed by other teams. As his role and tendencies change, so will defenses. As he exhibits more on ball skills, defensive attention will go up when he's on ball. Even if he maintains the exact level of play he's shown these 4 games, the production will likely take a hit once defenses play him with more focus on those things. He's going to need to continue his own improvement to offset the impact of more defense.

Big picture with Brown, he's already I think shown solid indication that he's an all star caliber player. The big picture question for him is going to be if he can move up from that. Will he go from fringey all star caliber guy to rock solid lock. Could he go even further to fringey all NBA guy. That's the leap he's going to need if he's a #2 player on a championship team. Right now I look at him more like a #3, but the improvement so far this year has shown glimpses of #2 player potential.

[keevsnick1]

Some very encouraging signs this year from him. His usage is at 28.7%, higher than last year's 24.7%. His TOV% is 5.5%, which is half of what his career levels were at entering the year. His assist % is 16.7%, almost double his career rate. He's handling the ball more and creating for others better than he has ever shown, all while turning the ball over less. That's awesome.

It's a very small sample size. He still looks clunky when handling the ball to me in the P&R - there's not a natural smoothness to his handles. I'm still skeptical that he can maintain the high level he's played to so far in that department, but you have to acknowledge improvement. Kemba and Hayward being out has thrust him into a different offensive role and so far he's thriving in the opportunity.

His 3 point attempts per game are down but like 25% vs last year. Makes sense as he's more a catch and shoot guy vs an off the dribble shooter from deep. His percentage so far is poor (26.7%) but over the prior 3 years he's shot 37.5% and even accounting for the rookie year where his shot was a work in progress he's a career 36.9% shooter. I see no reason he won't even out to a ~37%+ shooter.

He's doubled his career frequency of shots by percentage of overall attempts from 10-16 feet, and also close to doubled his career fg% on them. I'm concerned that's not sustainable. Looks like he's incorporated more floaters from 3-10 feet vs always trying to get right at the rim and just using blunt force vs more nuanced skill. That added touch is helping his overall FG% inside as well.

In general we're just seeing him move away from reliance on athleticism to more developed skills. It's been a continuous progression for that for his career and this year so far has been another leap.

The key for him is that this won't go unnoticed by other teams. As his role and tendencies change, so will defenses. As he exhibits more on ball skills, defensive attention will go up when he's on ball. Even if he maintains the exact level of play he's shown these 4 games, the production will likely take a hit once defenses play him with more focus on those things. He's going to need to continue his own improvement to offset the impact of more defense.

Big picture with Brown, he's already I think shown solid indication that he's an all star caliber player. The big picture question for him is going to be if he can move up from that. Will he go from fringey all star caliber guy to rock solid lock. Could he go even further to fringey all NBA guy. That's the leap he's going to need if he's a #2 player on a championship team. Right now I look at him more like a #3, but the improvement so far this year has shown glimpses of #2 player potential.

See I very much disagree with this, i just don't see the "clunkiness." He attacks the pick with good pace, under control dribble and gets to his spot. If anything i think hes still trying to figure out the time, when to dribble hard off the pick, the right moment to make a pass, ect. I dont have the number,s but my guess is the teams points per play has been very healthy with him as the pnr ball handler. i'd like to see more.

[hugepatsfan]

Some very encouraging signs this year from him. His usage is at 28.7%, higher than last year's 24.7%. His TOV% is 5.5%, which is half of what his career levels were at entering the year. His assist % is 16.7%, almost double his career rate. He's handling the ball more and creating for others better than he has ever shown, all while turning the ball over less. That's awesome.

It's a very small sample size. He still looks clunky when handling the ball to me in the P&R - there's not a natural smoothness to his handles. I'm still skeptical that he can maintain the high level he's played to so far in that department, but you have to acknowledge improvement. Kemba and Hayward being out has thrust him into a different offensive role and so far he's thriving in the opportunity.

His 3 point attempts per game are down but like 25% vs last year. Makes sense as he's more a catch and shoot guy vs an off the dribble shooter from deep. His percentage so far is poor (26.7%) but over the prior 3 years he's shot 37.5% and even accounting for the rookie year where his shot was a work in progress he's a career 36.9% shooter. I see no reason he won't even out to a ~37%+ shooter.

He's doubled his career frequency of shots by percentage of overall attempts from 10-16 feet, and also close to doubled his career fg% on them. I'm concerned that's not sustainable. Looks like he's incorporated more floaters from 3-10 feet vs always trying to get right at the rim and just using blunt force vs more nuanced skill. That added touch is helping his overall FG% inside as well.

In general we're just seeing him move away from reliance on athleticism to more developed skills. It's been a continuous progression for that for his career and this year so far has been another leap.

The key for him is that this won't go unnoticed by other teams. As his role and tendencies change, so will defenses. As he exhibits more on ball skills, defensive attention will go up when he's on ball. Even if he maintains the exact level of play he's shown these 4 games, the production will likely take a hit once defenses play him with more focus on those things. He's going to need to continue his own improvement to offset the impact of more defense.

Big picture with Brown, he's already I think shown solid indication that he's an all star caliber player. The big picture question for him is going to be if he can move up from that. Will he go from fringey all star caliber guy to rock solid lock. Could he go even further to fringey all NBA guy. That's the leap he's going to need if he's a #2 player on a championship team. Right now I look at him more like a #3, but the improvement so far this year has shown glimpses of #2 player potential.

See I very much disagree with this, i just don't see the "clunkiness." He attacks the pick with good pace, under control dribble and gets to his spot. If anything i think hes still trying to figure out the time, when to dribble hard off the pick, the right moment to make a pass, ect. I dont have the number,s but my guess is the teams points per play has been very healthy with him as the pnr ball handler. i'd like to see more.

Does the bold not fit the description for "clunkiness"? IDK, it just seems to me that he's always thinking through what to do as he does rather than just naturally reacting and doing it. That's what I mean by clunky. And as defenses play his tendencies more it's going to get tougher to react and think simultaneously so that's my concern going forward if this is his new role.

[keevsnick1]

Some very encouraging signs this year from him. His usage is at 28.7%, higher than last year's 24.7%. His TOV% is 5.5%, which is half of what his career levels were at entering the year. His assist % is 16.7%, almost double his career rate. He's handling the ball more and creating for others better than he has ever shown, all while turning the ball over less. That's awesome.

It's a very small sample size. He still looks clunky when handling the ball to me in the P&R - there's not a natural smoothness to his handles. I'm still skeptical that he can maintain the high level he's played to so far in that department, but you have to acknowledge improvement. Kemba and Hayward being out has thrust him into a different offensive role and so far he's thriving in the opportunity.

His 3 point attempts per game are down but like 25% vs last year. Makes sense as he's more a catch and shoot guy vs an off the dribble shooter from deep. His percentage so far is poor (26.7%) but over the prior 3 years he's shot 37.5% and even accounting for the rookie year where his shot was a work in progress he's a career 36.9% shooter. I see no reason he won't even out to a ~37%+ shooter.

He's doubled his career frequency of shots by percentage of overall attempts from 10-16 feet, and also close to doubled his career fg% on them. I'm concerned that's not sustainable. Looks like he's incorporated more floaters from 3-10 feet vs always trying to get right at the rim and just using blunt force vs more nuanced skill. That added touch is helping his overall FG% inside as well.

In general we're just seeing him move away from reliance on athleticism to more developed skills. It's been a continuous progression for that for his career and this year so far has been another leap.

The key for him is that this won't go unnoticed by other teams. As his role and tendencies change, so will defenses. As he exhibits more on ball skills, defensive attention will go up when he's on ball. Even if he maintains the exact level of play he's shown these 4 games, the production will likely take a hit once defenses play him with more focus on those things. He's going to need to continue his own improvement to offset the impact of more defense.

Big picture with Brown, he's already I think shown solid indication that he's an all star caliber player. The big picture question for him is going to be if he can move up from that. Will he go from fringey all star caliber guy to rock solid lock. Could he go even further to fringey all NBA guy. That's the leap he's going to need if he's a #2 player on a championship team. Right now I look at him more like a #3, but the improvement so far this year has shown glimpses of #2 player potential.

See I very much disagree with this, i just don't see the "clunkiness." He attacks the pick with good pace, under control dribble and gets to his spot. If anything i think hes still trying to figure out the time, when to dribble hard off the pick, the right moment to make a pass, ect. I dont have the number,s but my guess is the teams points per play has been very healthy with him as the pnr ball handler. i'd like to see more.

Does the bold not fit the description for "clunkiness"? IDK, it just seems to me that he's always thinking through what to do as he does rather than just naturally reacting and doing it. That's what I mean by clunky. And as defenses play his tendencies more it's going to get tougher to react and think simultaneously so that's my concern going forward if this is his new role.

Okay sorry, i read your post as referring to his handle in the pick and roll which isnt really the problem, I am referring to his timing on turning the corner/passing out of the pnr. I think the "clunkiness" has a lot more to do with having ran relatively few of them, its not something I'm immediately or really at all worried about, as I think it will improve naturally just with repetition and he's had a couple where it looked very smooth.

Even if he never totally masters it he's explosive and strong enough and has a smooth enough pull up mid range jumper I think he'll end up good in the pnr almost no matter what.

[bucknersrevenge]

There's the cutting I want!!!!!

[captain green]

Brown done done did it

[Feed Your Head]

It’s early, but I’m starting to think he can be a championship #2. It’s not even about the points tonight, was just really hot shooting. It’s the under control play, showing a pretty good iso game, the passing.

I still don’t think he will be a superstar or anything, but he just needs to get into that top 15ish range. You’ll have Tatum as an mvp level player, and Jaylen 3rd team all nba level, as long as Danny upgrades the rest of the roster, should be pretty damn good.

[Bleeding Green]

We have to impeach BostonCouchGM.

[Floody100]

If we do trade for Harden the thing that’s most encouraging is we shouldn’t have to include Smart with the way Jaylen’s been playing.

[KingofTheClay]

It’s early, but I’m starting to think he can be a championship #2. It’s not even about the points tonight, was just really hot shooting. It’s the under control play, showing a pretty good iso game, the passing.

I still don’t think he will be a superstar or anything, but he just needs to get into that top 15ish range. You’ll have Tatum as an mvp level player, and Jaylen 3rd team all nba level, as long as Danny upgrades the rest of the roster, should be pretty damn good.

I think both will be top 9-12 players.

I dunno if there will be an enormous disparity between these guys.

[Feed Your Head]

It’s early, but I’m starting to think he can be a championship #2. It’s not even about the points tonight, was just really hot shooting. It’s the under control play, showing a pretty good iso game, the passing.

I still don’t think he will be a superstar or anything, but he just needs to get into that top 15ish range. You’ll have Tatum as an mvp level player, and Jaylen 3rd team all nba level, as long as Danny upgrades the rest of the roster, should be pretty damn good.

I think both will be top 9-12 players.

I dunno if there will be an enormous disparity between these guys.

Eh, I don’t really want to get into a Jaylen/Tatum thing. But one of them faces constant traps, double teams and defensive game plans being built to slow them down. Jaylen has the better shot selection, and is more athletic, but people forget that Tatum is a year and a half younger than Jaylen. That’s a MASSIVE amount of developmental time, and he was already far better last season by pretty much every metric there is.

But like, saying Jaylen won’t be as good as Tatum isn’t a knock on Jaylen. It’s like me saying Tatum won’t be as good as Giannis. I mean even going into the year, Jaylens worst case to me was a top 35ish player, that’s a damn good piece to have. But it’s looking like he can be more like a top 15-20 guy, with the way he is improving.