Marcus Smart

[DarkAzcura]

All it takes is 1 good game in like 15 to keep the majority of this board interested in him.

Question:

Of course the sample size is way too tiny to put any weight in, but, hypothetically, if he managed to maintain his current scoring numbers (13.5 ppg on .511 TS% and .360 3P%) over the whole season, how would you feel? While not anything to write home about, I'd consider it an acceptable reversed course after his terrifying sophomore slump.


Lots of other factors that can't just be taken for granted, of course: defense needs to get back to what we're familiar with; needs to steal more of the PG duties from Terry and bring that AST% up. Also hopefully his efficiency benefits a bit from reduced USG after Horford and Crowder come back.

I'd take a 12/4/3.5 on .520 TS% with-plus-defense age 23 season. That'd be enough for me to feel a lot less anxious about his trajectory.

That'd be great but we all know he's not going to be hitting 36% on his 3's for the rest of the season.

He hit 34% his rookie year though.

[KGboss]

Hes more tony allen than dwayne wade. Thats all their is to it. Still love him as a player

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app

[SMTBSI]

That'd be great but we all know he's not going to be hitting 36% on his 3's for the rest of the season.

I don't know any such thing. How would I? You may be right (if I had to bet, it'd be on his 3P% dropping a bit and his FT% improving a lot, for close to a net wash in TS%), but it's not like it would require some inconceivably massive leap from what we've already seen him do over an entire NBA season.

He hit 34% his rookie year though.

But this wasn't really my point anyway (and the argument has definitely been beaten to death - happy to just say "show me" to him for the time being). My point was just that I find it a strange time to single him out, given what he's giving us so far. If he's going to regress, let's give him a chance to actually do so before we pile on. I find it just as probable that his numbers will improve as he gets up to speed physically, and our rotation gets healthy.

[SMTBSI]

I don't believe he is going to live up to the expectorations of becoming a good offensive player.

This is a very unpleasant typo/autocomplete.

expectorate
verb ex·pec·to·rate \-tə-ˌrāt\

transitive verb

1 : to eject from the throat or lungs by coughing or hawking and spitting

intransitive verb

1 : to discharge matter from the throat or lungs by coughing or hawking and spitting

[shawn unkempt]

Question:

Of course the sample size is way too tiny to put any weight in, but, hypothetically, if he managed to maintain his current scoring numbers (13.5 ppg on .511 TS% and .360 3P%) over the whole season, how would you feel? While not anything to write home about, I'd consider it an acceptable reversed course after his terrifying sophomore slump.


Lots of other factors that can't just be taken for granted, of course: defense needs to get back to what we're familiar with; needs to steal more of the PG duties from Terry and bring that AST% up. Also hopefully his efficiency benefits a bit from reduced USG after Horford and Crowder come back.

I'd take a 12/4/3.5 on .520 TS% with-plus-defense age 23 season. That'd be enough for me to feel a lot less anxious about his trajectory.

That'd be great but we all know he's not going to be hitting 36% on his 3's for the rest of the season.

He hit 34% his rookie year though.

Around 30% on his career, which I think is about where he'll be this year.

[SMTBSI]

That'd be great but we all know he's not going to be hitting 36% on his 3's for the rest of the season.

He hit 34% his rookie year though.

Around 30% on his career, which I think is about where he'll be this year.

So, you are projecting no improvement whatsoever for a 22 year old?

You may well be dead right, but, sometimes it just feels like our 22 year olds are the only ones in the league who aren't allowed to improve for some reason.

Why don't we let him regress before we just assume he's going to?

[shawn unkempt]

He hit 34% his rookie year though.

Around 30% on his career, which I think is about where he'll be this year.

So, you are projecting no improvement whatsoever for a 22 year old?

You may well be dead right, but, sometimes it just feels like our 22 year olds are the only ones in the league who aren't allowed to improve for some reason.

Why don't we let him regress before we just assume he's going to?

He already did regress, dude shot 25% from 3 last season... if anything 30% is way too optimistic. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he can get back on track at least a little.

[SMTBSI]

He already did regress, dude shot 25% from 3 last season... if anything 30% is way too optimistic. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he can get back on track at least a little.

I don't follow this logic. We have one full season (272 attempts) at .335, and one full season (241 attempts) at .253, and a career-to-date (538 attempts) at .299. You're saying the career-to-date number is "way too optimistic"? We are just assuming that he's regressing and will never recover - that he's just gotten flat out worse from his rookie year, and that's it - the end of his development? He's locked in those losses, and is who he's going to be as a shooter at 22?

I mean, that may even wind up being true. Guys bust all the time. I just don't see the sense in taking as given that he's more likely to get worse than better. That's like, a really depressing way to be a fan, to me... Does that apply to all of our guys, or just Smart?



(And anyway, let's not forget this.)

[shawn unkempt]

He already did regress, dude shot 25% from 3 last season... if anything 30% is way too optimistic. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he can get back on track at least a little.

I don't follow this logic. We have one full season (272 attempts) at .335, and one full season (241 attempts) at .253, and a career-to-date (538 attempts) at .299. You're saying the career-to-date number is "way too optimistic"? We are just assuming that he's regressing and will never recover - that he's just gotten flat out worse from his rookie year, and that's it - the end of his development? He's locked in those losses, and is who he's going to be as a shooter at 22?

I mean, that may even wind up being true. Guys bust all the time. I just don't see the sense in taking as given that he's more likely to get worse than better. That's like, a really depressing way to be a fan, to me... Does that apply to all of our guys, or just Smart?



(And anyway, let's not forget this.)

The way I see it is that you're the one ignoring the fact that he regressed (badly) right in front of our eyes, had one of the worst shooting seasons in NBA history, and hasn't adjusted his style of play in any meaningful way. Sorry if I'm not optimistic that our .45 TS% guard with no obvious paths (quickness, ball handling, body control is all bad for a guard) for improvement is going to make a giant leap.

[SMTBSI]

The way I see it is that you're the one ignoring the fact that he regressed (badly) right in front of our eyes, had one of the worst shooting seasons in NBA history, and hasn't adjusted his style of play in any meaningful way. Sorry if I'm not optimistic that our .45 TS% guard with no obvious paths (quickness, ball handling, body control is all bad for a guard) for improvement is going to make a giant leap.

All right, I get it. Just, calling 30% "way too optimistic", when we have a season's worth of evidence he can do better, is a realm of pessimism I'm not prepared to explore just yet. Guess we'll see.


(To be nitpicky, .45 is rounding way down.)

[emkeyfour]

Marcus Smart in my opinion should drop some LBs. Get a proper brotha haircut lineup and look like ur brotha denzel

[DarkAzcura]

He already did regress, dude shot 25% from 3 last season... if anything 30% is way too optimistic. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he can get back on track at least a little.

I don't follow this logic. We have one full season (272 attempts) at .335, and one full season (241 attempts) at .253, and a career-to-date (538 attempts) at .299. You're saying the career-to-date number is "way too optimistic"? We are just assuming that he's regressing and will never recover - that he's just gotten flat out worse from his rookie year, and that's it - the end of his development? He's locked in those losses, and is who he's going to be as a shooter at 22?

I mean, that may even wind up being true. Guys bust all the time. I just don't see the sense in taking as given that he's more likely to get worse than better. That's like, a really depressing way to be a fan, to me... Does that apply to all of our guys, or just Smart?



(And anyway, let's not forget this.)

The way I see it is that you're the one ignoring the fact that he regressed (badly) right in front of our eyes, had one of the worst shooting seasons in NBA history, and hasn't adjusted his style of play in any meaningful way. Sorry if I'm not optimistic that our .45 TS% guard with no obvious paths (quickness, ball handling, body control is all bad for a guard) for improvement is going to make a giant leap.

I don't see how he is ignoring it. Let's not act like we have seasons worth of data to see a meaningful trend of regression. We have two seasons of data here. One season close to average. Another season one of the worst. Sophomore slumps occur a lot. I need to see another season or two before I write off his three point shooting. Players don't typically shoot their best in their rookie years so I won't make that assumption for him.

[SMTBSI]

The way I see it is that you're the one ignoring the fact that he regressed (badly) right in front of our eyes, had one of the worst shooting seasons in NBA history, and hasn't adjusted his style of play in any meaningful way. Sorry if I'm not optimistic that our .45 TS% guard with no obvious paths (quickness, ball handling, body control is all bad for a guard) for improvement is going to make a giant leap.

I don't see how he is ignoring it. Let's not act like we have seasons worth of data to see a meaningful trend of regression. We have two seasons of data here. One season close to average. Another season one of the worst. Sophomore slumps occur a lot. I need to see another season or two before I right off his three point shooting. Players don't typically shoot their best in their rookie years so I won't make that assumption for him.

Thanks for the backup. I agree with you here - I'm just not buying the narrative that he's just flat out gotten way worse and that's the end of his story. If we take his first to second year regression from 3 as gospel, what should we conclude? Does he stabilize at 25%? Sink to 20%? Is that how this works? I'm not convinced.

He's got this season for me. If he comes in below 30% again, then I worry. For now, I'll bet that a hard-working kid is going to grow.

[SichtingLives]

You may well be dead right, but, sometimes it just feels like our 22 year olds are the only ones in the league who aren't allowed to improve for some reason.

Ahhh see that's right where our heavy hot takes won't and can't be refuted by any reasonable counterpoint. We can dump on who and whatever we want in year two or three on house money and regardless of what happens by year 7, our wacky $hit-talking was all a distant memory by then.

This is also the same point where some folks begin to draw a line in the sand and will go on to stubbornly defend their stance for the rest of a guys career because of what they said in 2007 or 1993, almost (or completely) hoping that guy never improves just to be right rather than ever say, "hey you know what, I had a $hit take on this way back when and got it wrong".

But as far as this individual case I think people are willingly ignoring that Smart's offensive skillset has improved incrementally since he came in the league even if he's still sub-par compared to league averages or throws up gross bricks from range. Given a decent sample size in this pivotal developmental season (fingers crossed he doesn't have another stupid injury throwing his progression off), we'll have a good idea of where he stands and decent grounds for extrapolation.

People also need to get way the f over player comparisons and draft position. The only thing we need to compare him to is who he was yesterday.

[Golabki]

[quote="Iguodaladon"]One of the greatest mysteries in the known universe is why Marcus Smart was ever so highly touted. His scouting reports never sounded like the makings of a future star- you know things are bad when they're speaking intangibles and leadership as your main qualities before you hit 36 years old

Despite this and Randle looking like the better player atm, I'm not gonna bust Ainge about picking him- Gordon, Smart and Randle were all ranked amonge each other at the time of the draft and it was an honest toss up between any 3 of them[/quote]
Randle is looking like a playable and nothing more. I think Smart still clearly ahead of Randle.

[jrob23]

I'm ready to hand Smart the starting PG spot. I want to once and for all see if he can handle the job. He has the size and defense. I want IT coming off the bench where his atrocious defense can be masked and he can provide instant offense. We need to know if Smart can be that guy or not. Also, it would help with showcasing him for potential trades. Something has got to give and we just have to finally decide if Smart should be part of the team going forward.

[Green89]

I'm ready to hand Smart the starting PG spot. I want to once and for all see if he can handle the job. He has the size and defense. I want IT coming off the bench where his atrocious defense can be masked and he can provide instant offense. We need to know if Smart can be that guy or not. Also, it would help with showcasing him for potential trades. Something has got to give and we just have to finally decide if Smart should be part of the team going forward.

Top 10 in scoring and assists in the league and you want him on the bench? Not going to happen.

[TheOGJabroni]

It blows my mind there are still people that want IT to come off the bench. Our offense would go down the **** so fast.

[TommyPointGawd]

I'm ready to hand Smart the starting PG spot. I want to once and for all see if he can handle the job. He has the size and defense. I want IT coming off the bench where his atrocious defense can be masked and he can provide instant offense. We need to know if Smart can be that guy or not. Also, it would help with showcasing him for potential trades. Something has got to give and we just have to finally decide if Smart should be part of the team going forward.

Top 10 in scoring and assists in the league and you want him on the bench? Not going to happen.

Im not a stat guy. But if you want to go there he is also in last place in the entire NBA in defensive rating. Thomas is part of the problem and he more than anybody needs Crowder and Horfy back. Im not for moving him to the bench more on a psychological level. He has proven to much to be moved to the bench and Smart has not done enough to earn a starters role. But i do think the change would help the team at the moment.

You may well be dead right, but, sometimes it just feels like our 22 year olds are the only ones in the league who aren't allowed to improve for some reason.

Ahhh see that's right where our heavy hot takes won't and can't be refuted by any reasonable counterpoint. We can dump on who and whatever we want in year two or three on house money and regardless of what happens by year 7, our wacky $hit-talking was all a distant memory by then.

This is also the same point where some folks begin to draw a line in the sand and will go on to stubbornly defend their stance for the rest of a guys career because of what they said in 2007 or 1993, almost (or completely) hoping that guy never improves just to be right rather than ever say, "hey you know what, I had a $hit take on this way back when and got it wrong".

But as far as this individual case I think people are willingly ignoring that Smart's offensive skillset has improved incrementally since he came in the league even if he's still sub-par compared to league averages or throws up gross bricks from range. Given a decent sample size in this pivotal developmental season (fingers crossed he doesn't have another stupid injury throwing his progression off), we'll have a good idea of where he stands and decent grounds for extrapolation.

People also need to get way the f over player comparisons and draft position. The only thing we need to compare him to is who he was yesterday.

+10000 Its like people want him to fail. The guy can hit 5 threes tonight and if the Cs lose there will be Smart cant shoot post.

[shawn unkempt]

+10000 Its like people want him to fail. The guy can hit 5 threes tonight and if the Cs lose there will be Smart cant shoot post.

More like he'll have his 1 good game of the month and people will come out of the woodwork saying he's turning a corner, only for the next 15 games to be more dreadful shooting. I don't want him to fail, just accepting his talent for what it is.