sam_I_am wrote:celticfan42487 wrote:I generally wait till a player's 4th year when they've shown potential like Tatum before I give into the probability being more likely he won't pan out how we like.
But I completely see and understand what the OP is saying. If Tatum is playing like this next year then I'll agree with him too.
He 100% could be right.
Sorry but this is 100% wrong. Tatum has special ability. He is a splash brother separated at birth from Curry and Klay. He is 21 and far from perfect. But his 12-15 game yesterday is no surprise to me and could have been a lot better if he didn’t make youthful mistakes. This guy can drop 20 in a quarter....easily. Yesterday was just a teaser as to how good he will be 5 years from now when he is 10 lbs heavier, physically at his peak and has another 4 years of playoff experience. At 21, Tom Brady was in college. At 23 he was a 4th string quarterback drafted in 6th round. At 19 Tatum dunked over Lebron and was team’s highest scorer and series best player in a 4-1 beat down of Simmons and Embiid. This thread sucks and should be burned.
That's great, 5 years from now he'll be 27 and no one on the current roster will be under contract. (he'll be 22 in a couple of months).
You can't make moves today on an UNCERTAIN future like that.
A Curry and Klay brother separated at birth doesn't average 37% 3 point shooting on 5.25 3PAs in the past two seasons. He's shooting almost exactly the same percentage 3 this year and last. (FYI league average in any given year is roughly 35- a little over 36%)
There is more evidence to suggest this is his norm than not. Progression and improvement is not guaranteed in player development and even regression is a solid possibility.
Going off and saying he's guaranteed to transform into one of the greatest shooters of all time in 5 years which is so far out the team can make zero moves off that unless it's guaranteed is not only hot take police central it's also an unusable take for GM of this franchise.
Hell we literally have no one signed that far into the future for a reason.
The only teams that could use that to their advantage are those with very young MVPs under long term team control. Like a DAL or a MIL.
Just for reference
Curry's previous 2 seasons: 10.75 3PAs per game on 43%
Klay's previous 2 seasons: 7.4 3PAs per game on 42.1%
Which is essentially the same as their career average 3 point shooting percentages.